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Reactions To The Freese-Bourjos Trade

By Jeff Todd | November 22, 2013 at 9:10pm CDT

Now that the dust has settled, let's take a look around at some reactions to today's important deal sending third baseman David Freese and righty Fernando Salas to the Angels in exchange for center fielder Peter Bourjos and outfield prospect Randal Grichuk. 

  • For a broad account of the deal, including some reactions from participants, see this piece from MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. Cards' GM John Mozeliak emphasized that the club pulled the trigger to add speed and center field capability, while noting that Grickhuk's inclusion was a "critical" factor in getting the deal done.
  • Though Mozeliak said that a veteran second bagger could still be brought in, he also indicated that the club was prepared to rely primarily on Kolten Wong. Meanwhile, top prospect Oscar Taveras could see time in right field and play a bench role, leaving the club with what Mozeliak calls "more flexibility moving forward," reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Sulia). 
  • While the two sides discussed including shortstop Erick Aybar, writes Goold, the asking price was too steep for Mozeliak to bite. With both the Orioles and now the Angels having dangled a shortstop at St. Louis from a position of strength, and the expected free agent money for the few attractive options going higher by the day, Goold says we are seeing a clear seller's market at the position. His Post-Dispatch colleague Bernie Miklasz says that the Angels were eyeing Shelby Miller, making Mozeliak's refusal understandable.
  • Miklasz was among the many who liked this deal for the Cards. As he put it: "Mozeliak did a good job here. It's as simple as that. He received plus value and added youth, speed and defense — and saved payroll – in moving an expendable player in Freese."
  • From the Halos' perspective, GM Jerry Dipoto said that his club "feel[s] like we're getting one of the most productive third base bats in baseball over the last three years," tweets the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. As Shaikin later noted, Freese does rank tenth in composite OPS out of the 21 players with at least 1,000 hot corner plate appearances since 2011. Dipoto also said that Freese "knows how to drive in the important run" and "provides what we think is a more-than-acceptable solution" to the team's third base hole, as MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports in his write-up of the deal. Looking back, Mozeliak explained that Freese's magical 2011 run of success raised expectations to an unsustainable point and makes a fresh start a good idea, MLB.com's Gonzalez reports via Twitlonger.
  • With relatively little open salary space and a major starting pitching void in Anaheim, Shaikin indicates that this deal carries a lot of risk for Dipoto. Other trade candidates like Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick have not sparked interest from other teams that would consider parting with young starting pitching, Shaikin says, and Aybar was not enough (yet, at least) to get St. Louis to budge on one of its prime young arms. Yet by sending out Bourjos, whose low cost, good defense, and fairly high floor would have appealed to a wide range of other clubs, the Angels have parted with a player that could have been a significant piece in a deal for a new arm.
  • Even while casting doubt on Bourjos's ability to replicate his 2011 campaign at the dish, ESPN.com's Keith Law (Insider link) likes it for the Cards, though he notes that Freese has enough power upside that the deal could ultimately turn out well for the Halos.
  • For Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who rates Bourjos as at least a three-win player while noting that his career Isolated Slugging mark is higher than that of Freese, the swap is a clear win for St. Louis. His takeaway: "The Angels needed a third baseman, I guess, but they traded a good player for a worse player who costs more."
  • MLBTR's Steve Adams nicely summed up the trade: "All told, the Angels are dealing three years of Bourjos and one of their top prospects for two years of Freese and three years of Salas in addition to agreeing to take on roughly $4MM in additional salary in the 2014 season." From that perspective, particularly given that the Cards got the younger players, it is tough not to like it for St. Louis — even if you are relatively high on Freese as a bounceback player and think that Bourjos has a limited ceiling. (For what it's worth, 2014 Steamer projections expect 2.3 WAR for Freese over 535 plate appearances and 2.6 WAR over 493 plate appearances for Bourjos.) It is worth noting that the low likely starting point for Bourjos's arbitration salary, along with his generally meager home run and RBI output, mean that he will very likely be on a lower arbitration salary arc than Freese for the rest of his years of eligibility.
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Michael Weiner Passes Away

By charliewilmoth | November 21, 2013 at 6:46pm CDT

MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner has died of brain cancer, Diamondbacks pitcher Brad Ziegler tweets. Weiner was 51.

Weiner joined the union staff as a lawyer in 1988 and replaced Don Fehr as its executive director in 2009. In 2011, Weiner led the union to agree to the Collective Bargaining Agreement that currently governs Major League Baseball. Weiner will likely be remembered in part for paving the way for punishments for the use of PEDs throughout the game. But he also helped negotiate the addition of a second Wild Card team, the move of the Houston Astros to the American League, the expansion of instant replay, and changes in team compensation for departing free agents.

In August 2012, it was reported that Weiner was being treated for a brain tumor, which turned out to be inoperable. He continued to work despite the diagnosis, keeping a full schedule even during the 2013 season. Weiner is survived by his wife, Diane, and three daughters.

Former MLB first baseman Tony Clark was Weiner's deputy executive director. He will become MLBPA's acting executive director.

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40-Man Roster Counts

By Tim Dierkes | November 21, 2013 at 2:30pm CDT

Many players were added to 40-man rosters with yesterday's deadline, as seen here.  Current counts by team:

AL East

  • Orioles: 36
  • Red Sox: 39
  • Yankees: 39 (does not include Brendan Ryan)
  • Rays: 37
  • Blue Jays: 39

AL Central

  • White Sox: 39
  • Indians: 40 (does not include David Murphy)
  • Tigers: 39
  • Royals: 40 (does not include Jason Vargas)
  • Twins: 39

AL West

  • Astros: 37
  • Angels: 40
  • Athletics: 39
  • Mariners: 38
  • Rangers: 38

NL East

  • Braves: 40
  • Marlins: 39
  • Mets: 40
  • Phillies: 38 (does not include Carlos Ruiz)
  • Nationals: 40

NL Central

  • Cubs: 39
  • Reds: 40 (does not include Skip Schumaker)
  • Brewers: 40
  • Pirates: 40
  • Cardinals: 36

NL West

  • Diamondbacks: 40
  • Rockies: 39 (does not include LaTroy Hawkins)
  • Dodgers: 34
  • Padres: 40
  • Giants: 40 (does not include Javier Lopez)
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MLB Owners Approve Replay Funding

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2013 at 2:28pm CDT

2:28pm: Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal reports that once the umpires' and players' unions approve the system, a separate vote to enact the rule changes will take place when the owners meet in January.

The new challenge system will be verbal. Beyond that, if managers walk on the field to protest a call, they will no longer be able to challenge it. Costa quotes Manfred: "What we'd like to have is a trade-off. We no longer spend time arguing, and in return, you have a right to challenge. What we want to avoid is arguing for a while and then you challenge."

According to Manfred, umpires will still be able to initiate replays even after a manager has exhausted his challenges. That is still one of the details to be discussed by umpires.

NOV. 14, 11:05am: : ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that MLB owners have approved funding for replay expansion in 2014. The system will still need to be approved by the players' and umpires' unions, though their approval is fully expected, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

MLB COO Rob Manfred confirmed to reporters, including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, that the new replay system will be based on manager challengers (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that there will be a maximum of two challenges per team, per game, regardless of inning. Davidi also tweets that managers will lose their second challenge if they are incorrect on the first one.

AUG. 15: Major League Baseball is prepared to move forward with a radical expansion of instant replay, but an official announcement will be delayed until November, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The new replay policy will allow managers to ask for replay reviews in a style that is similar to the NFL's challenge system. Managers will have three challenges — one in the first six innings of the game and two beyond that. Under the new system, which will be phased in starting next season, 89 percent of plays will be deemed reviewable. Should a manager exhaust his three challenges, the umpiring crew can still convene to conduct their own review of a questionable home run.

MLB vice president Joe Torre, former Braves GM John Schuerholz and advisor Tony La Russa presented the proposal to all 30 owners today. Commissioner Bud Selig told Nightengale that the proposal appeared to be widely accepted, and the commissioner called today a "historic" day for the game of baseball. A formal announcement won't occur until after the quarterly owners' meetings on Nov. 13-14.

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Entries Due Tonight For Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2013 at 7:58pm CDT

Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's third annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.  Last year's winner had 20 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.  We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
  • Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 10th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.  It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 10th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

  • $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
  • 2014 Baseball America Handbook
  • One-year digital subscription to Baseball America
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Future Salary Obligations In Context, Part II

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 9:57am CDT

On Wednesday, I pulled together some salary information from Cot's Baseball Contracts in an attempt to give some context to teams' overall future salary commitments. Check out that post for background, and bear in mind we are only talking about post-2014 payroll. With the benefit of receiving comments and thinking about what I wrote, I decided to utilize the information in a few more ways. 

First, as I noted in a comment, simply summing the future obligations only tells part of the story. A better, more complete analysis would discount later-in-time salary to a present value. Dave Cameron had a great piece recently on Fangraphs discussing the way in which contracts for elite free agents have tended to tack on additional years at the back end rather than increasing average annual value for a shorter term. As he noted, baseball payrolls have grown at about 3.5% on average over the last ten years. That kind of inflation — in concert with the time-value of money — makes a future dollar less valuable than a present one. 

The difficulty remains in arriving at an appropriate rate by which to discount the future obligations. While I am not equipped to undertake that complicated and inexact task, it occurred to me that there is another option: simply chart out the different possible rates to show what would occur at a given percentage. I chose to use a range between zero and ten percent because opening day payrolls have increased by around 5-6% over the last two years and because the reported infusion of TV money could theoretically lead to a jump in salaries. Bear in mind, though, that the higher end of the scale is exceedingly unlikely — it is a ten-year period, after all — and is really included for illustrative purposes.

Here are the results, which show how different discount rates would impact each teams' future obligations. You'll need to open the image to view it. 

Discount chart

[All numbers are in millions. An explanation on the columns: "x% discount" shows the present value of a club's future obligations at a given discount rate; "sum saved" shows the difference between the non-discounted obligations and the value as discounted; and "pct saved" shows the relative impact on each team's obligations at each rate. And I'll note that I updated the information to include the Rangers' recent extension of Martin Perez.]

Remember, there is nothing inherently good or bad about taking on, as opposed to avoiding, future obligations. And there are good reasons to backload, or frontload, those commitments. This is just a tool to help understand the numbers. Click below for a closer look at a few salient aspects of this chart, and some additional team-by-team information and observations.

Read more

The most apparent impact of discounting applies, naturally, to teams with the most payroll to be discounted. That does not mean that low-obligation clubs don't care — after all, a low-inflation environment would increase the relative future burden on heavily-committed teams, to their competitve disadvantage — but their pocketbooks are relatively safe from the direct effects. In absolute terms, discounting most diminishes the present value of the down-the-line salary obligations of these clubs:

Largest absolute decrease in present value

Discount impact 3

We'll keep our focus on clubs that have enough in future commitments to make the discount rate bite. You'll note that, as I mentioned in the first post, a greater discount — which, for our purposes, means an expectation of greater salary inflation — would ease the burden on teams whose obligations extend furthest into the future. 

First, let's compare the Rays — who have the highest present value reduction, by percentage, upon discounting — with the Jays, who have one of the lowest. Both teams have about $140MM in post-2014 commitments, but look what the discount rate does to their present value as we increase it:

Rays vs Jays

Clearly, unless we experience salary deflation, the Rays' obligations fall short of those borne by their division foes from up north. Likewise, going in the opposite direction, notice how the Reds' $300MM tab begins to creep down towards the $230MM owed by the Phillies as the discount rate is edged upwards:

Reds vs Phils

Discounting is just one way in which the actual structure of the obligations — as opposed to a simple lump sum — makes a difference. Dollars that must be paid sooner cost more, but they also leave the books quicker. More money committed to fewer players increases risk, but (at least hopefully) reflects higher-quality assets. Likewise, a greater overall average annual value means that more roster spots remain to be filled, with less money available to do so.  

To help continue exploring these comparisons, I thought it would be useful to put together a few more graphs, with teams grouped by division. None of these figures are discounted, since as noted above I do not wish to stake out a specific discount rate. First, let's look at future obligations on a division-by-division basis:

Obligations by division

It is certainly interesting to see the geographical spread, though a big off-season spree along the I-95 corridor could change things pretty quickly.

Now, let's look at each team by division, in descending order of total divisional obligations. I'll offer two charts with each division, the first one showing total obligations by year, and the second showing each club's average commitments per player as well as the average annual value of all its contracts. (Option buyouts count in the guaranteed salary, but do not count as a year for determining AAV.)

NL West

The Dodgers' massive commitments between 2015-18 ramp down rather suddenly, though a Clayton Kershaw extension could change that. The Rockies have one of the game's highest per-player commitments, but Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are both elite players with plenty of prime years left.

NL West 1

NL West 2

NL Central

The Reds have the longest set of commitments in baseball thanks to the Joey Votto contract. Though the Cubs have a lot of money owed to some fairly risky assets (Edwin Jackson, Starlin Castro, Jorge Soler, Anthony Rizzo), the club maintains a low AAV. Pittsburgh has one of the cleaner sheets in the game; even better, most of its scheduled outflows will be directed to Andrew McCutchen.

NL Central 1

NL Central 2

AL West

The Angels' commitments look imposing when one considers the age and recent history of their most expensive players (Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols), especially in conjunction with high commitment-per-player and AAV marks. The Rangers have a well-diversified and widely-spread set of obligations compared to most big-spending clubs. Essentially all of the M's commitments go to Felix Hernandez. Looking at the chart, it would be tough to pick out the team that actually won this division the past two seasons.

AL West 1

AL West 2

AL Central

With a series of massive contracts, the Tigers have the league's highest average commitment per player — and that is before new contracts for Miguel Cabrera and/or Max Scherzer come into play. The Twins and Indians provide an interesting contrast between two teams with approximately the same sum of future payroll promises.

AL Central 1

AL Central 2

AL East

These graphs show again the stark contrast between the Blue Jays' and Rays' obligations. Boston's future obligations look remarkably similar to Tampa's in size and structure, and each has a franchise player (Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria, respectively) that accounts for most of the hit. Given New York's massive spending capacity, its drastic payroll drop-off affords ample opportunity for backloading deals to free agents.

AL East 1

AL East 2

NL East

We've heard before that the Phillies' big contracts won't prevent them from spending and contending, and these charts show why that could yet be the case. Though the club carries a steep AAV, it will shed salary reasonably quickly. The Braves, dealing with the B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla deals, have perhaps more in common with the Phillies than one might think. Each will try to work through near-term financial crunches of similar proportion (in relation to their likely payroll limits) by relying on a strong organizational asset: money for the Phils and young talent for the Braves.

NL East 1

NL East 2

That's all I have to offer at the moment. I will be interested to see what other observations are reached in the comments.

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Non-Tender Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | November 7, 2013 at 9:29am CDT

By my count, 199 players are currently arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2014.  More than 30 of those can be considered non-tender candidates.  The deadline for teams to decide is December 2nd at 11pm central time.  Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent.  Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates.  Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered.  Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts.  Click here for our non-tender tracker, and here for our arbitration tracker.

Position Players

Tony Abreu
Darwin Barney
Daric Barton
Tyler Flowers
Sam Fuld
Mat Gamel
Chris Getz
Jesus Guzman
Brett Hayes
Paul Janish
Garrett Jones
Don Kelly
Lou Marson
Michael McKenry
Chris Nelson
Jayson Nix
Justin Ruggiano
Seth Smith
Travis Snider
Chris Stewart
Drew Stubbs 

Pitchers

Scott Atchison
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Daniel Bard
Mitchell Boggs
Scott Elbert
Tommy Hanson
Frank Herrmann
Daniel Hudson
Kevin Jepsen
Cristhian Martinez
Fernando Rodriguez
Esmil Rogers
Joe Thatcher
Josh Tomlin
Jerome Williams
Blake Wood 

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Future Salary Obligations In Context

By Jeff Todd | November 6, 2013 at 11:00pm CDT

With the 2014 offseason upon us, there will be plenty of discussion of how prospective free agents, arbitration eligibles, and extension candidates fit into their teams' plans. To help assess all manner of prospective moves, I pulled together some of the wealth of data available at Cot's Baseball Contracts with an eye to putting it all in a broader context.

Alas, Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs beat me to the punch with respect to payrolls for the coming year, compiling estimates of each teams' 2014 salary obligations as they stand at present. (Thurm utilizes Cot's information, adds in recent signings, and incorporates the arbitration projections of MLBTR's Matt Swartz, then employs some judgment to reach her figures.) You'll want to give that piece a read.

But with the 2013 season in the books, Thurm's list is now a gauge of present commitments. When considering long-term contracts, possibly including back-loading mechanisms to obtain present production and pay for it later, it is also important to look down the line.

So, I offer the present figures, graphs, and observations to work in conjunction with the aforementioned breakdown. I have included only actual, guaranteed dollars (including buyouts) — i.e., no estimated arbitration obligations or pre-arb salaries. The result is not intended to be a realistic look at teams' complete commitments, but does reflect the amount of financial flexibility that each club has to work with. (After all, if an organization really cannot afford a player eligible for arbitration in, say, 2015, they have the option to trade them or cut them loose by a non-tender.) While I hasten to add that I lack the background to support a true statistical analysis of these numbers, I hope the following will give MLBTR's readers some interesting things to consider.

We'll start with a chart showing the entirety of every team's future guaranteed contract commitments. Deeming 2014 as present obligations, the year range is from 2015 to 2024. In total, MLB teams have signed deals promising players over $4.8 billion to play for them over the decade beginning in 2015. Total commitments* range from $513.82MM (the Dodgers) to $0 (the Marlins). Without further ado (click image to enlarge):

2015-2024 commitments by team

[*Amounts include obligations to players no longer under team control. Bonuses are spread over the life of a contract, as Cot's maintains its figures. The Dodgers' recent signing of Alexander Guerrero is reflected as providing four equal, $7MM salaries for the life of the deal since year-by-year details have not been reported.]

As the chart shows, the Dodgers have guaranteed over $100MM more to their players than any other team in baseball. A few other clubs immediately stand out at the bottom end, with the Athletics leading a group of near-term expected contenders (including the Royals and Pirates) with less than $50MM owed past the current year.

Click below for some more observations and figures …

Read more

A full list of the future salary numbers is too unwieldy to include here, but you can click on this link to download an Excel file that has all of that data:  Download Future commitments by team. For more visually pleasing access, here is a version of the chart showing the (rounded) payroll numbers by year, which you'll need to open in full view to really take in:

2015-2024 commitments by team w text

These numbers are interesting on their own. But baseball teams, of course, have widely varying payroll capacities. I therefore thought it useful to consider spending capacity as well. In need of a rough proxy for capacity, I chose to compare future commitments to teams' franchise-high opening day payrolls. That is surely an imperfect mechanism, but is good enough as a starting point. (For what it's worth, I ran the ratios using teams' average payrolls from 2011-13, and the resulting order was not materially different.) The following organizations have the highest ratio of future obligations to single-season high payroll (pre-2014):

Highest ratio future dollars to high opening day payroll

Viewed this way, the Reds and Giants have perhaps extended themselves even more than the other larger-payroll clubs near the top of the list. The risk those clubs have taken is fairly substantial, particularly since much of their down-the-line cash is dedicated to just a few big-budget players like Joey Votto and Buster Posey. Much the same holds for the Rays, who have made a sizeable commitment to Evan Longoria; though he profiles as a substantial value, there is no question that his nine-figure contract carries extra risk to Tampa. (Compare Tampa's current balance sheet with that of the A's. It will be interesting to see whether the latter begin to add down-the-line commitments over the coming offseason.)

You could use these numbers to argue that some clubs have, to some extent, mortgaged their futures. On the other hand, of course, players under contract will (barring injury) provide production, even if it will likely decline over time. And another way of looking at things is that "high-ratio" clubs stand to gain the most from an inflationary salary environment.

One team is noticeably absent from the above list: the Phillies, who are often mentioned as a team with troubling long-term commitments. Of course, that view is based in large part on a subjective assessment of the team's spending promises. Ryan Howard, in particular, looks to be a troubling burden. But the numbers do support some cause for concern as well, even though Philadelphia has a middle-of-the-pack ratio of 1.29. The Phils are among the teams that have committed the highest average annual value, meaning that their big commitments have bought them relatively few actual seasons of play. To wit:

Highest aav

[NOTE: the original version of this post contained an incorrect chart of teams with the highest AAV of 2015-2024 obligations. First, those figures included 2014 numbers. Second, the Phillies' calculation did not account for Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, whose relatively low salary drops the AAV.]

Two clubs, then stand high atop both the ratio and the AAV lists: the Tigers and Angels. For the Halos, in particular, the numbers seem to support the concerns that many have raised about the club's long-term payroll burdens. Arguably possessing two of baseball's very worst contracts, the club's handling of Mike Trout — the game's most valuable asset — gains even greater importance. 

Looking at the ratio of future commitments to team-high payroll yields some interesting observations on the low side as well. In particular, among the club's with the lowest ratio are two notorious big spenders. 

Lowest ratio future dollars to high opening day payroll.jpg

Sitting there amongst several clubs that have cleared out payroll or traditionally carry salaries below the top of the market, one finds two of baseball's most powerful organizations: the Yankees and Red Sox. Both have substantially less in total future comments than they have shown the capacity and willingness to spend in a single season. In other words, these two AL East powerhouses have plenty of room to backload deals. (For the Yanks, the luxury tax could still pose a challenge in the immediate term, though the club's relatively clear future ledger could help them dip under the line for a year to reset its tax hit.) That is probably good news for players hitting free agency this year and next.

It is worth emphasizing how well the Sox appear to be positioned in this light. GM Ben Cherington sent about $150MM in 2015-onward commitments to the Dodgers in the 2012 blockbuster (Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford) and added just $13MM back in the club's free agent signings last offseason (Shane Victorino). Fresh off a World Series victory, Boston possesses upper level talent in a well-regarded farm system, wields some of the game's deepest pockets, and is carrying the long-term obligations of a rebuilding club. Cherington has earned his club a great hand; it will be fascinating to see how he plays it.

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2014 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 4, 2013 at 10:55pm CDT

The eighth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.

This is the third year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 5,239 people entered, with Josh Larabee taking home the batting title with 20 correct picks and a .400 average.  I topped MLBTR writers with 16 correct.  The contest is back for 2014 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 10th at midnight central time, and you're free to make changes up until that point (I will certainly make changes up until the end).  A Facebook account is required.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you'll be making predictions, along with my guesses.  Player names are linked to our Free Agent Profiles.

1.  Robinson Cano – Yankees.  Cano is likely to join Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, and Prince Fielder as baseball's fifth $200MM player.  Cano made news in April, dropping agent Scott Boras in favor of Jay Z's Roc Nation Sports, which will be supported by CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen in negotiations.  Cano, 31, is the complete package, a durable second baseman who hits in the middle of the order and provides a .310 batting average, 30 home runs, and 100+ RBI with above average defense.  He's averaged more than six wins above replacement per season for the Yankees since 2010, a level of production justifying a yearly salary north of $25MM.  There was talk in September of Cano seeking ten years and $305-310MM, which would be the largest contract in baseball history by far.  We think he'll fall well short of $300MM, especially with the Dodgers looking unlikely.  Casting a wide net, Cano's speculative suitors aside from the Yankees could include the Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Nationals, and Cubs, though none of those teams seem like an obvious match.  At any rate, it will be an ownership-level conversation for Jay Z and Van Wagenen.

2.  Jacoby Ellsbury – Mariners.  Ellsbury is a 30-year-old center fielder and leadoff man whose speed contributes to strong defense and big stolen base totals.  His power is mostly of the doubles and triples variety, as he's only reached double digits in home runs once.  That was in his 2011 season, an MVP-caliber campaign in which he hit 32 home runs and accounted for a superstar level nine WAR.  Ellsbury spent significant time on the disabled list in the 2010 and '12 seasons.  The first injury was cracked ribs after a collision with Adrian Beltre and the second a shoulder injury after a collision with Reid Brignac, prompting agent Scott Boras to say in July, "Jacoby Ellsbury is a very durable player. He just has to make sure that people don’t run into him."  I think a goal for Boras will be to top Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142MM deal from three years ago.  Boras will surely be making his pitch directly to team owners, who could green-light a huge contract even if the GM disapproves.  The Mariners have money to spend and may find extra appeal in that Ellsbury is an Oregon native.  Otherwise, the Red Sox could bring him back, or the Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Cubs could be fits.

3.  Shin-Soo Choo – Tigers.  Choo posted a robust .423 on-base percentage this year, leading all free agents and ranking fourth in baseball.  He's another Boras leadoff man with a shot at $100MM, so you can be sure we'll hear the agent talking about how leadoff hitters are the new 40 home run hitters.  Despite playing center field this year, Choo fits best in an outfield corner.  There are questions about his defense and ability to hit left-handed pitching, and as with Cano, Ellsbury, McCann, Santana, and others, a team will have to forfeit its highest available draft pick to sign him.  The 31-year-old South Korea native should require a contract in excess of Hunter Pence's five-year, $90MM deal, making a return to the Reds unlikely.  The Tigers' interest in signing Choo to play an outfield corner is unknown, but surely Boras' relationship with owner Mike Ilitch will lead to a conversation.  The Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, and Astros are other potential matches.

4.  Brian McCann – Rangers.  McCann, 30 in February, is a power-hitting catcher with a middle of the order reputation.  He's an above average defensive backstop as well, so he's not destined to move off the position in the immediate future.  Still, with a five-year term expected, an American League team makes more sense to allow for increasing time at designated hitter as the contract winds down.  Like Ellsbury, McCann bounced back from a shoulder injury to have a strong 2013, and like Choo, he hasn't been good against left-handed pitching lately.  The Rangers are a natural fit, but the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Phillies, and Dodgers could be other considerations for agent B.B. Abbott.

5.  Masahiro Tanaka – Dodgers.  Not technically a free agent, Tanaka is expected to be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league.  MLB and NPB are closing in on an agreement for changes to the posting system, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  The Rangers paid $51.7MM to negotiate with Yu Darvish two years ago, and executives who spoke with Yahoo's Jeff Passan expect something like $75MM to negotiate with Tanaka.  Whatever the fee, it will not count against the team's luxury tax payroll, and a contract will still have to be negotiated with Tanaka's as yet unknown agent.  Tanaka is known to have a great splitter and while he doesn't project to be as good as Darvish, some reports have suggested he could step directly into a Major League rotation as a number two starter.  At just 25 years old, an MLB team would get much of his prime years, making him a potential match even for teams not expected to contend in 2014.  The Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels are expected to be major players, while I can see the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Royals, Mariners, Astros, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, and Rockies being involved as well.

6.  Ervin Santana – Yankees.  Santana is competing with Tanaka and Garza for the title of best available starting pitcher, after posting 211 innings of 3.24 ball for the Royals this year.  Santana throws relatively hard, avoids walks, and doesn't turn 31 until December.  He has been homer-prone at times, and some teams may balk at losing a draft pick and giving Santana our projected five-year, $75MM deal.  Nonetheless, the list of suitors should be long if the Royals aren't able to retain Santana, potentially including the Yankees, Twins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Astros, and more.

7.  Matt Garza – Nationals. Limited to 259 innings over the last two seasons, our projected four-year deal in excess of $60MM would be unprecedented for a pitcher with a questionable recent health history.  Once Garza recovered from a stress fracture in his elbow and a lat strain, he went on to make all 24 starts for the Cubs and Rangers this year.  Since he was traded midseason, he's ineligible for a qualifying offer, adding value in comparison to Santana.  Garza is a hard thrower who has consistently posted sub-4.00 ERAs, with good K/BB ratios in recent years.  The Nationals figure to bring in some kind of starter, while the Phillies, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners, and Yankees also seem like potential fits.  The Astros are my dark horse here. 

8.  Hiroki Kuroda – Yankees.  Kuroda provided the Yankees with a 3.31 ERA over 421 innings from 2012-13, and they'd like to have him back even though he will pitch next year at age 39.  MLBTR's Steve Adams describes Kuroda as a "groundball pitcher with plus command," noting that teams may be reluctant to forfeit a draft pick to sign him.  Kuroda figures to be picky in free agency, but we don't know if his preference will be a return to the Yankees, California, or Japan, or to simply retire at the top of his game.

9.  A.J. Burnett – Pirates.  Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement.  He has given the Bucs 393 1/3 innings of 3.41 ball from 2012-13 and would pitch next year at 37.  He still misses lots of bats and keeps the ball on the ground.  His decision will greatly impact the Pirates' offseason.  The team chose not to make a qualifying offer, giving both sides more freedom to work out a fair deal.

10.  Mike Napoli – Red Sox.  Napoli, 32, is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market after hitting 21 home runs with 92 RBI in the regular season and adding a few more key hits in the postseason.  A three-year, $39MM deal with the Red Sox last offseason was negotiated down to one year and $5MM when a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  He ended up earning the full $13MM through incentives, staying relatively healthy and strengthening his position for this offseason.  Another asset: he's played in the postseason six times out of eight total seasons.  On the other hand, Napoli does strike out a lot and some teams will have a hard time sacrificing a draft pick and giving him our projected three-year, $42MM contract.  After missing out on Jose Dariel Abreu, we'll learn soon if the Red Sox are willing to guarantee a third year to Napoli, for real this time, fresh off a World Championship.

11.  Ubaldo Jimenez – Blue Jays.  From April 29th onward, Jimenez posted a 2.61 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 165 2/3 innings, and he finished especially strong.  It seems likely Jimenez will turn down the qualifying offer from the Indians and will require a new team to forfeit a draft pick, unlike Nolasco.  Still, he posted an excellent 3.30 ERA this year and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2010, so Jimenez has upside that Nolasco doesn't.  Jimenez, 30 in January, seems to have a good shot at the Edwin Jackson contract: four years, $52MM. Suitors could include the Blue Jays, Angels, Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants.

12.  Carlos Beltran – Yankees.  Beltran is a middle of the order bat who can likely be had on a two-year deal because he'll turn 37 in April.  He's a 25 home run switch-hitter with a strong October reputation, though his market will be hurt by receiving a qualifying offer.  An American League team might be wise, given the chance of Beltran picking up some DH at-bats.  He's had interest in the Yankees for a decade now, and this might finally be the year it happens.  The Royals, Rangers, Orioles, and Pirates are other potential fits if Beltran doesn't re-sign with the Cardinals.

13.  Curtis Granderson - Mets.  After a pair of 40 home run seasons, Granderson lost most of 2013 to separate incidents in which a pitch broke a bone (his forearm and a finger).  Granderson is "widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game," noted MLBTR's Steve Adams, who predicted a three-year, $45MM contract.  Aside from the fact that he'll play next year at age 33, one factor that will hurt Granderson's market value is the qualifying offer he received from the Yankees.  According to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News prior to the offer, agent Matt Brown said it's possible they could accept.  If Granderson does hit the market, the Mets have to come away with some kind of decent outfielder, and Granderson is capable of playing all three positions.  Granderson is a Chicago guy, and the Cubs or Sox could make it work.  

14.  Stephen Drew – Mets.  Drew signed a one-year, $9.5MM make-good contract with the Red Sox last December, and for the most part he did just that.  Drew, 31 in March, played in 120+ games for the first time since 2010 despite enduring a hamstring injury.  Though he weathered a postseason slump, Drew has an above-average bat for a shortstop.  He excelled defensively during the regular season and on the big stage in the playoffs.  Drew will be dragging a qualifying offer around, but his competition is light on the shortstop market.  Agent Scott Boras has a shot at four years at more than $10MM annually.  The Red Sox may feel they have a ready replacement in Xander Bogaerts, so the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates are Drew's most likely suitors.  

15.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia – White Sox.  Salty had the best overall year of any free agent catcher, and he won't turn 29 until May.  He's a switch-hitter with good power.  Drawbacks include a poor line against southpaws and lots of strikeouts.  Saltalamacchia was benched by the Red Sox in the World Series in favor of David Ross.  He was able to avoid a qualifying offer, which will be to his advantage in the marketplace and could allow him to top my predicted four-year, $36MM deal.  I don't love the White Sox prediction, so other possibilities include the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Phillies, and, to think outside the box, the Angels and Marlins.

16.  Scott Kazmir - Twins.  The lefty signed a minor league deal with the Indians before the season, and 29 strong starts later he's back on the radar as a top 20 free agent.  Just 30 in January, Kazmir has never been an innings guy, but he does flash front of the rotation stuff.  I've predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.  With the reasonable price, upside, and no draft pick compensation, Kazmir could wind up with a dozen suitors.

17.  Nelson Cruz – Phillies.  Cruz is one of the better power bats on the free agent market, but he's 33 years old, limited defensively, and was suspended 50 games this year for his connection to Biogenesis.  The Rangers made Cruz a qualifying offer, and he's yet another player whose market will be hurt by draft pick compensation.  With power in short supply, it's possible Cruz could top Beltran and receive a three-year deal.  The Phillies, in search of right-handed outfield power, could be a nice match if the Rangers don't retain him.  The Royals, Mets, Pirates, and Diamondbacks could be other considerations.

18.  Omar Infante - Tigers.  One of the ten best second basemen in the game, Infante doesn't strike out much and is solid defensively, and he didn't receive a qualifying offer.  I think he can find a three-year deal in the $25MM range, maybe to stay with the Tigers.  The Cubs, Yankees, Orioles, and Royals are other possibilities.

19.  Joe Nathan - Tigers.  With the Rangers seemingly willing to let their closer walk, Nathan will be seeking a win-now team willing to overpay to solidify the ninth inning with the legendary but aging righty on a two-year deal for around $26MM.  The Tigers could replace Joaquin Benoit with Nathan, while the Yankees and Angels are other possibilities.

20.  Ricky Nolasco – Phillies.  Nolasco, 31 in December, saw his stock rise after joining the Dodgers in a July trade and posting a 3.52 ERA in 87 innings.  Three rough outings in September took some of the shine off, but even innings eaters make good money these days.  And unlike Ervin Santana, Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.  I've come around to the idea that Nolasco should be able to find Edwin Jackson's four-year, $52MM deal.  He could solidify the Phillies' rotation, and may also be an option for the Twins, Giants, Angels, Rockies, or Mariners if the Dodgers don't retain him.

21.  Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals.  Peralta, who will play most of next season at age 32, is a strong hitter for a shortstop.  Defensively, he's considered to have strong hands but limited range, so some teams may view him as a third baseman.  His stock will be hurt by this year's 50-game Biogenesis suspension, which prompted the Tigers to acquire his successor in Jose Iglesias.  Peralta still may manage a three-year deal in the $30MM range, given the limited market at his position.  The Cardinals could plug their shortstop hole with Peralta, while other potential matches include the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Pirates. 

22.  Bartolo Colon – Indians.  Colon, 41 in May, resurrected his career by getting bone marrow and fat stem calls injected into his elbow and shoulder in 2010.  Returning to the Majors in 2011, Colon started pitching increasingly well, at least in terms of ERA, and his 2.65 mark in 190 1/3 innings this year ranked second in the American League.  Colon tested positive for testosterone in August 2012, earning a 50-game suspension and keeping his price down for the A's for 2013.  The testosterone use was later found to be tied to Biogenesis, and Colon did not get a second suspension for his involvement.  Colon's age and health/PED profile makes a qualifying offer unlikely, but his performance this year could merit $10MM or more on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure if the Indians would be open to a reunion with Colon if the A's are not able to retain him.  Most teams could find room for the righty on a one-year deal.  

23.  Bronson Arroyo – Mets.  Arroyo is the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005-13.  Arroyo, 37 in February, is the game's most consistent innings-eater.  It appears he'll move on from the Reds after eight seasons, and he didn't receive a potentially budget-busting qualifying offer.  I've pegged Arroyo at two years and $24MM, which could be palatable for the Mets, Twins, Giants, and several other teams looking to solidify the backend of their rotation. 

24.  Marlon Byrd – Pirates.  Byrd, 36, hit a career low with a PED suspension in June 2012.  The outfielder signed a minor league deal with the Mets and improbably became their starting right fielder.  He hit five home runs in May and didn't look back, mashing 24 overall between the Mets and Pirates.  A two-year deal in the $15MM range seems possible.  If a contract can't be hammered out with the Pirates, the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, or Giants could make sense.

25.  Grant Balfour – Yankees.  After saving 62 games over the 2012-13 seasons, Balfour will likely be seeking a closer gig in free agency.  The Aussie, 36 in December, could get something like $18MM over two years.  As with Joe Nathan, the Yankees, Angels, and Tigers make sense, but with more than a half-dozen closer types on the market, a few of them will need to settle for set-up jobs. 

26.  Joaquin Benoit – Cubs.  MLBTR readers prefer Balfour to Benoit, though they're both quality late-inning options who will get multiyear deals.  Benoit, 36, set the market for setup men three years ago with a three-year, $16.5MM deal, and with 24 saves under his belt in 2013 he could earn that much or more for two years.  The Cubs figure to add relief help of some sort, while the Tigers, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Rockies will also be in the market.

27.  Scott Feldman – Orioles.  The Cubs' one-year, $6MM investment in Feldman a year ago paid off, as he provided 15 solid starts for them before being flipped to the Orioles in a trade for controllable players.  The Orioles were happy with the results and Feldman could continue to stabilize their rotation on a new two-year deal.  The Twins, Yankees, Blue Jays, Indians, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies could fit on guys like this, basically half of baseball.

28.  Kendrys Morales – Mariners.  Morales is a 30-year-old switch-hitter with no major flaws offensively, and even a guy you could dream on for 30 home run potential outside of Safeco.  Many factors will conspire to hold down interest, however: he's mostly a designated hitter, he'll come with draft pick compensation attached, and agent Scott Boras has aggressive asking prices.  The Mariners might be the only team that values Morales at two years and $28MM, though the Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, and Astros might be interested if not for the draft pick cost.  Some feel Morales could accept the qualifying offer, but that's not a typical Boras move.

29.  Carlos Ruiz – Phillies.  Chooch had an off year, beginning with a suspension for using Adderall and also missing time with a hamstring strain.  He was quietly one of the game's top offensive catchers from 2010-12, which should be enough to get him a two-year, $14MM deal.  Ruiz, 35 in January, could draw interest from the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rangers if he can't find common ground to remain in Philadelphia.

30.  Josh Johnson – Royals.  Johnson, 30 in January, was limited to 15 starts this year for Toronto due to triceps and forearm injuries, culminating in October elbow surgery.  With a 3.14 ERA from 2006-12, the oft-injured, hard-throwing righty will entice many teams on a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range.  The Blue Jays didn't spring for a qualifying offer, but should have interest in bringing Johnson back.  Otherwise, it's easy to picture the Royals, Phillies, Rays, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Pirates, and Cubs entering the fray.  

31.  Tim Hudson – Braves.  A fractured ankle ended Hudson's season in July, so the 38-year-old groundballer seems in line for a one-year deal this winter.  However, agent Paul Cohen told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca the pitcher seeks a multiyear deal.  The Braves may require a discount, but they're likely Hudson's first choice.  Otherwise, teams such as the Yankees, Nationals, Phillies, and Pirates could get involved, and the Angels and Giants if he's amenable to the West Coast.

32.  Fernando Rodney – Astros.  Rodney resurrected his career with the Rays in 2012, allowing a ridiculous five earned runs in 74 2/3 innings while saving 48 games.  He saved another 37 this year, though his walk rate spiked back to its previous, dangerous rate of nearly five per nine innings.  Since Rodney will turn 37 in March, he's probably limited to a two-year deal, perhaps in the $16MM range.  That seems likely to be out of the Rays' range.  The Tigers and Angels are contenders with potentially available closing jobs, but they may not seek a reunion with Rodney.  That could leave the Yankees, plus the Indians and Rangers if they don't fill their openings internally or more affordably.  Rodney could expand his market by considering closing for non-contenders like the Astros or Cubs, or by taking on a setup job for teams like the Phillies or Rockies.

33.  A.J. Pierzynski – Yankees.  At age 37 in December, Pierzynski might not be many teams' first choice at catcher, but he's still a durable player who makes good contact and hits for power.  Teams that balk at the multiyear demands of McCann and Saltalamacchia could go for Pierzynski, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Marlins, Phillies, or even the Rangers or White Sox again.  

34.  Dan Haren – Giants.  Haren, 33, had strong peripheral stats this year but posted his highest ERA in many years with a 4.67 mark.  He put together a 3.29 ERA in the second half, giving hope for mid-rotation potential in 2014.  The California native would be a good fit for the Giants, Athletics, or Padres on a one-year deal, while a dozen other teams could show interest.

35.  Jason Vargas – Angels.  Vargas came to the Angels a year ago in a trade for #28 on this list, Kendrys Morales.  The southpaw did respectable work until a blood clot in his left armpit knocked him out for nearly two months.  With a strong track record as an innings eater, Vargas may get a three-year deal.  The Halos would like to hang onto him, though the Orioles, Royals, Phillies, and any of the other teams named in Scott Feldman's blurb would make sense.

36.  Suk-min Yoon - Royals.  Public information is light on Yoon, a 27-year-old righty who intends to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to MLB this winter, as Hyun-jin Ryu did last year.  Yoon isn't as good as Ryu, and may not even profile as a starter for some teams.  The Boras client could still be a bargain on a modest two-year deal if he does profile as a mid-rotation arm.  

37.  James Loney – Twins.  Loney, 30 in May, resurrected his career in Tampa Bay as several other first basemen have before him.  A one-year deal seems likely for Loney, who doesn't have the typical power profile for his position but is regarded as a slick fielder.  I haven't found a great fit for Loney, though the Twins could work.  The Brewers could be a fit if they don't re-sign Corey Hart.  

38.  Phil Hughes – Padres.  Hughes will pitch next year at 28, so he's the youngest domestic free agent starter.  The former first rounder throws relatively hard and has put together some solid K/BB ratios, but was crushed at Yankee Stadium and is homer-prone in general as a flyball pitcher.  On a one-year deal, he could have some upside for a pitcher-friendly NL team like the Padres.

39.  Corey Hart - Brewers.  Recovery from offseason surgery on one knee bled into Hart injuring his other knee and requiring surgery on it as well.  Now he enters free agency after missing all of 2013.  He's said he'll take a discount to remain with the Brewers, the only organization he's ever known, and the team still has a need at first base.  The Rockies and Twins are other possibilities.

40.  Edward Mujica – Phillies.  Though we once pegged Mujica for three years and $21MM, that's feeling steep in light of the Cardinals' decision to avoid him entirely in six World Series games.  Despite the poor finish to his season, there's still plenty in Mujica's favor: he doesn't turn 30 until May, he made the All-Star team, and he saved 37 games in 41 tries with immaculate control.  He still has a shot at three years, but maybe something in the $15-18MM range.  Though the saves in 2013 boost his earning potential, Mujica may still be open to set-up work, so he could work for many teams.  The Phillies are one potential fit, though it may be unreasonable to suggest they'll add $40MM in free agent salaries for 2014 as projected on this list.  

41.  Nate McLouth – Orioles.  This year McLouth played in more than 130 games for the first time since his banner 2008 season with the Pirates.  He seemed stretched a little thin as an everyday left fielder, hitting .243/.306/.380 from May onward.  McLouth still provides quiet value, especially against right-handed pitching, and it should be enough to get him a Jonny Gomes type of contract.  If a return to Baltimore doesn't work out, teams like the Mets and Astros have outfield openings McLouth could help fill at a reasonable cost.

42.  Juan Uribe – Marlins.  Uribe quietly ranked sixth among all free agent position players in FanGraphs wins above replacement this year with 5.1, outpacing names like Mike Napoli, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran.  He was the Uribe of his Giants years, with a workable OBP and solid pop.  He's played the middle infield in his career, but spent most of 2013 at the hot corner, amassing stellar fielding numbers that account for much of that WAR.  While Uribe has always posted strong defensive numbers at third base, those heights are not likely repeatable.  More detrimental to his market value is his replacement level play for the first two years of his Dodgers contract, from 2011-12.  The 34-year-old is probably looking at a one-year deal, though a modest two-year pact is possible.  It's difficult to place any decent free agent in Miami these days, but they could offer Uribe a nice opportunity.  The Yankees, White Sox, and Cubs could be other options.  

43.  Paul Maholm – Brewers.  Maholm is a groundballing 31-year-old southpaw who fits in the back of a team's rotation, most likely on a one-year deal.  Teams seeking a lefty can look at Maholm, Scott Kazmir, Jason Vargas, and Chris Capuano.

44.  Joe Smith – Rockies.  Smith, 30 in March, is a sidearming righty reliever with a 2.42 ERA over 197 innings dating back to 2011.  He's posted strong groundball rates, especially in 2011-12 at over 56%.  Smith isn't amazing in terms of missing bats or avoiding free passes, but he's proven to be tough to hit with 7.6 per nine innings allowed in his career.  The Rockies, Tigers, Astros, Phillies, and Brewers could be among his suitors if the Indians don't re-sign him.

45.  Justin Morneau – Rays.  Morneau hasn't been the same elite hitter since suffering a severe concussion in 2010.  33 in May, he's hit .263/.328/.424 over the past two seasons.  If baseball card stats matter to any teams, Morneau looks a bit better, since he approached 20 home runs and 80 RBI in each of the last two seasons.  Someone will be willing to throw him a one-year deal to see if he can rediscover the magic or at least be a decent complementary piece.  Morneau values playing for a contender, so if he doesn't return to the Pirates, the Rays could make sense.

46.  Jesse Crain – Astros.  Crain's fantastic first half resulted in an All-Star selection, but he didn't pitch after June 29th due to a shoulder injury.  The 32-year-old reliever should come on an affordable one-year deal with incentives due to the health concern.  Crain has ties to Colorado and Houston, and both clubs are seeking relief help.

47.  Brian Wilson – Angels.  The Beard had a successful Tommy John comeback with the Dodgers, though it was still less than 20 innings including the postseason.  He's likely to sign a one-year deal.  The Angels are a potential match, as they could push Ernesto Frieri to a setup role.

48.  Jason Hammel – Mariners.  Hammel was surprisingly good for the 2012 Orioles, though his season was shortened by knee surgery.  His strikeout and groundball rates came crashing down in 2013, and he spent significant time on the DL for inflammation of his ulnar nerve.  The 31-year-old does throw hard, averaging around 93 miles per hour on his fastball, and could provide 170 decent innings on a one-year deal.  The Mariners could use the depth, plus Hammel is semi-local. 

49.  Roy Halladay – Mets.  Halladay, 37 in May, had a brutal 2013.  He had shoulder surgery in May, coming back for six starts toward the end of the season.  His final outing was particularly bad, as he topped out at 83 miles per hour before being pulled.  The former ace is a complete unknown for 2014, but a one-year deal is the only possibility.  I think a team with Spring Training in Florida could be a factor for Halladay.  Doc could wait to sign during the season, to ensure his health is where it needs to be.

50.  Chris Young – Cubs.  Young, 30, joined the Athletics via trade a year ago but had a lost season that included a DL stint for a quad strain.  He should be able to serve as a lefty-mashing quality fourth outfielder who can handle all three positions, with the upside to play himself back into regular duty.  He could join Ryan Sweeney in a platoon with the Cubs, while the Mariners and Phillies could also work.

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13 Free Agents Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 4:19pm CDT

The deadline to extend one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offers to impending free agents has passed, and 13 players received such offers:

  • Carlos Beltran
  • Robinson Cano
  • Shin-Soo Choo
  • Nelson Cruz
  • Stephen Drew
  • Jacoby Ellsbury
  • Curtis Granderson
  • Ubaldo Jimenez
  • Hiroki Kuroda
  • Brian McCann
  • Kendrys Morales
  • Mike Napoli
  • Ervin Santana

Each of these 13 players will have one week to decide whether they wish to accept or reject the offer. In order to sign a player that rejects a qualifying offer, a team will have to forfeit a top draft pick. Because the first 11 picks are protected in this year's draft, the Astros, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays and Mets will forfeit a second-round pick to sign a player who rejects a qualifying offer. All other teams will be forced to forfeit their first-round pick.

The player's former team does not receive the pick that is forfeited, but rather will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round. As it stands, the Yankees and Red Sox each have a chance to receive three extra first-round picks in 2014 should all three of their qualified free agents reject an offer and sign with a new team.

The 13 qualifying offers represent an increase over last offseason, when only nine players received the offer. None of those nine accepted the offer, though some — most notably Kyle Lohse — saw their market value heavily impacted by their ties to draft pick compensation.

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