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This year's projected Super Two cutoff is two years, 128 days of service time — typically written as 2.128 — according to Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball (Twitter link). Before we get into the candidates to reach this status in 2014, here's a quick refresher on Super Two status for those who are unfamiliar with the term.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible. Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22 percent in total service in the two-to-three-years service class; these players are referred to as "Super Two" players. The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two cutoff percentage from 17 percent to 22 percent, and that 22 percent of players will be eligible for arbitration four times instead of the standard three times. Also bear in mind that for MLB purposes, 172 days is the equivalent of one year of Major League service time.

Among the current Major League players that would qualify for this distinction following a full season in the Majors are Alex Presley (1.162 as of Opening Day), Josh Donaldson (1.158), Erik Kratz (1.158), Zach Britton (1.158), Kelvin Herrera (1.157), David Phelps (1.156), Tony Campana (1.155), Drew Smyly (1.154), Dee Gordon (1.154), Darin Mastroianni (1.149), Garrett Richards (1.148) Casey Fien (1.143), Jenrry Mejia (1.140), Pedro Beato (1.134), Marwin Gonzalez (1.133), DJ LeMahieu (1.128), Drew Hutchison (1.128), Anthony Recker (1.128) and Eduardo Escobar (1.128). Of course, not all of those names will stick in the Majors long enough to achieve Super Two status.

There are also a number of players that are in the minor leagues with one- and two-plus years of service that could be recalled in 2014 and achieve the status, although it's important to note that a player must accrue at least 86 days of service time in a season to achieve Super Two status at season's end. A player such as Eduardo Nunez, for example, who is in the minors for the Twins but has 2.117 days of service, would not achieve Super Two status simply for receiving a September call-up.

For some context on this year's cutoff, here's a look at the cutoffs from the previous five years:

• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.139
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

One player of note is Bryce Harper, who, at 1.159 years of service, should be a prime candidate to achieve Super Two status. However, as reported by the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore back in November, the Nationals and Harper have an unresovled contract issue stemming from this very situation. Harper signed a Major League deal out of the draft — something that is no longer possible given the changes to the most recent collective bargaining agreement. At the time the deal was being finalized, the Nationals and agent Scott Boras were unable to come to an agreement on what would happen to Harper's 2015 salary were he to qualify as a Super Two player following the 2014 season. As it stands, his contract does not allow him to opt out of his $1MM salary in 2015 in favor of arbitration. (That salary will almost certainly rise to $2MM due to roster bonuses.) Because an agreement wasn't reached, the sides agreed to revisit the matter if it became an issue and have the situation resolved via a grievance hearing. That could be an outcome now, though an extension or further compromise could also avoid a hearing.

Should Harper be unable to head to arbitration next winter, it could cost him millions, and not just in the 2014-15 offseason. Harper has already done enough to top a $2MM first-time arbitration payday. By earning $2MM in 2015, though, he would not only lose the $2-3MM he would have earned via arbitration, he would also take a hit on future arbitration salaries due to the fact those figures would be based, in part, off of the previous year's arbitration earnings. Instead of having a baseline north of $4MM for his 2016-18 arbitration cases, he'd be starting with a baseline of $2MM.

There have been a number of noteworthy, research-oriented pieces written in recent days with strong hot stove implications. Here are a few worthwhile reads:

• Ben Lindbergh, writing for FOX Sports, analyzes trends in roster turnover over baseball history. He finds that the apparent boom in extensions — driven by TV money, changes in PED trends, and other factors, in concert with revenue sharing and the luxury tax — has halted (and may be reversing) the trend of increasing player movement since the inception of free agency.
• Over at Fangraphs, Tony Blengino analyzes the risks in long-term pitching deals and Wendy Thurm breaks out every player on a 40-man roster by contract type (fielders and pitchers). Blengino looks at comparables for top starters such as Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander, examining how their peers fared after their prime-aged years. Ultimately, he concludes: "There is nothing wrong with paying premium dollars to premium talent, but there is something inherently inefficient in paying premium dollars for an inordinate number of years, multiple years before a club has to do so."
• Sticking with extensions, Yahoo's Jeff Passan looks at the union's difficulties in dealing with seemingly team-friendly, option-laden extensions. Baseball is a $9 billion industry, writes Passan, and as it grows, the MLBPA wants the maximum amount of money going to player salaries, not owners' pockets. However, in some instances, it's simply too difficult for players to turn down life-changing dollars. Passan spoke with one agent who said his client couldn't even grasp the concept of $1MM after growing up in poverty in a Latin American country, so when he was presented with an eight-figure extension offer, he couldn't bring himself to turn it down, even though he was worth more. Passan also writes that some agents that fear their clients could be poached by another agent will advise a player to take an extension to ensure they receive their commission. One GM tells Passan that two club options has become a starting point in negotiations — a thought that would've been laughable a generation ago. (For addtional context on the subject of options, I recently broke down MLB's use of options myself, looking at both overall trends and different option types.)
• In a must-read piece on MLB's international player market, Ben Badler of Baseball America provides a fascinating — and troubling — profile of the scouting and signing of young international prospects. Badler paints a picture of a system that is racing towards younger players and earlier commitments, driven by actors who dislike that cycle but feel powerless to contest it.
• In a fascinating interview on Sirius XM's MLB Network Radio with Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette (audio link), famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews says that the recent run of Tommy John surgeries is a trend, not just coincidence. In his view, elbow ligament issues find their roots in a pitcher's amateur time. "So you can usually go back and see a minor injury from when they were a young kid throwing youth baseball that was not recognized, but it set them up for a major injury somewhere down the road," said Andrews. "If we can keep these kids clean through high school, then we’re going to see a lot less number of them getting hurt as they become mature college players and professional players. So you’ve got to prevent it at a young age."

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Now that we are over a week into the season, the time is fast approaching when top prospects that have yet to accrue any MLB service time can safely be brought up without the sacrifice of a year of control for their team. With less than 172 days left in the season, players who have no prior MLB time can no longer reach a full year by straight-ahead counting. (Remember: a year of service is achieved at 172 days on the active roster or big league DL; while a season has more than 172 days, a player cannot accrue more than one year of service for each season.)

However, MLB rules provide that players accrue service time if they spend less than 20 days on optional assignment in a given year. Thus, we are still about a week and a half away from the point that prospects who are already on the 40-man (and thus currently on optional assignment) can be called up while still preserving six full seasons of future team control.

Looking at the Baseball America Top 100 prospects, the following top prospects (with rank and team) are in the minors at present, have yet to accrue any MLB service, and are projected by BA to be ready for MLB action at some point in the current season:

Position Players

Byron Buxton (#1, Twins); Oscar Taveras (#3, Cardinals); Javier Baez (#5, Cubs); Miguel Sano (#6, Twins); Kris Bryant (#8, Cubs); Gregory Polanco (#10, Pirates); Francisco Lindor (#13, Indians); Addison Russell (#14, Athletics); Maikel Franco (#17, Phillies); George Springer (#18, Astros); and Jonathan Singleton (#82, Astros).

Pitchers

Archie Bradley (#9, D'Backs); Jon Gray (#12, Rockies); Jameson Taillon (#22, Pirates); Kyle Zimmer (#23, Royals); Eddie Butler (#24, Rockies); Andrew Heaney (#30, Marlins); Alex Meyer (#45, Twins); Marcus Stroman (#55, Blue Jays); Eduardo Rodriguez (#65, Orioles); and Rafael Montero (#68, Mets). 

Of course, several of those players — notably, Sano and Taillon, who are both out for the season — may not have any realistic shot at this point of seeing time in the bigs this year.

For those players, the real key is Super Two status. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in October, qualification has landed between 2.122 and 2.146 years of service in recent years. To be safe, teams hoping to dodge an extra arbitration payday will want to wait until the calendar flips from May to June to promote the above-listed prospects.

Still other players have already seen some MLB time in years prior and are waiting in the minors for a chance at the bigs. Dylan Bundy (#15, Orioles; 15 days of service) and Jimmy Nelson (#96, Brewers; 27 days service) are both within several weeks of being ready for promotion without costing a year of future control, though the former is still working back from Tommy John. Others — Kevin Gausman (#20, Orioles; 71 days service); Matt Davidson (#72, White Sox; 50 days service); Jake Marisnick (#79, Marlins; 69 days service); and Allen Webster (#88, Red Sox; 44 days service) – would need to stay down for a good bit longer for their clubs to keep that extra season. That group will be among the most interesting names to watch, since it is easy to imagine their employers being tempted both to use them in the bigs and to keep their service clocks paused.

Then, of course, there are the players who have already seen time in the season's early going. The following players will surpass their first year of MLB service unless they are optioned down for much of the season (service shown as of start of 2014):

Position Players

Xander Bogaerts (#2, Red Sox; 42 days service); Nick Castellanos (#25, Tigers; 29 days service); Travis d'Arnaud (#38, Mets; 44 days service); Billy Hamilton (#43, Reds; 28 days service); Jackie Bradley (#50, Red Sox; 59 days service); Kolten Wong (#58, Cardinals; 45 days service); Chris Owings (#66, Diamondbacks; 27 days service); Marcus Semien (#91, White Sox; 27 days service); and Michael Choice (#98, Rangers; 29 days service).

Pitchers

Taijuan Walker (#11, Mariners; 31 days service); Yordano Ventura (#26, Royals; 13 days service); Carlos Martinez (#31, Cardinals; 73 days service); Erik Johnson (#63, White Sox; 27 days service); Jake Odorizzi (#67, Rays; 42 days service); Trevor Bauer (#83, Indians; 25 days service); and James Paxton (#99, Mariners; 27 days service).

Bradley, Semien, Choice, and Bauer (who was just promoted for one start) all have some chance of spending most of their years in the minors, though each could certainly earn a MLB spot. The other players listed all seem to be set up for ongoing, regular big league roles unless they falter. 

These aren't all of the young players whose rise to the big leagues will be impacted by service time considerations, of course. But the above discussion should give you a fair idea of where others would fall, based upon their service time and development timeline.

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Braves @ Nationals – 1:05pm EST
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Brewers @ Red Sox – 2:05pm EST
Phillies @ Cubs – 2:20pm EST
Twins @ Indians – 3:05pm EST
Giants @ Dodgers – 4:10pm EST
D'Backs @ Rockies – 4:10pm EST
White Sox @ Royals – 4:10pm EST
Cardinals @ Pirates – 7:05pm EST
Yankees @ Blue Jays – 7:07pm EST
Reds @ Mets – 7:10pm EST
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In a joint press release, Major League Baseball and the Major League Player's Association have announced a newly enhanced testing and suspension protocol in the Joint Drug Program (often abbreviated "JDA"). 

First come changes to the number of PED tests conducted. The new standards more than double the number of in-season random urine tests. Also, the number of random blood tests for hGH will increase to 400. 

Second, the new agreement enhances the suspension penalties that can be applied. A first offense will now carry an 80-game suspension; a second offense comes with a full-season, 162-game suspension and loss of the full year's salary; and a third offense will result in a permanent ban. Notably, also, a player hit with a suspension cannot return to play in that years post-season.

Notably, the new terms make clear that an Arbitration Panel may choose to reduce the discipline in the event that the player can prove that the use was not intended to enhance performance. But any player who has a suspension upheld will be subject to six additional random, unannounced urine tests and three blood tests for every year in the remainder of his career.

Several months back, I took a look at the question of how best to craft deterrents to curb PED use, and argued that merely enhancing the current regime would not provide the best set of disincentives (for all parties involved). Of course, it is worth noting that today's agreement comes well in advance of its December 1, 2016 expiration. And, as ESPN's T.J. Quinn assesses things on Twitter, with these enhancements, MLB is "now miles ahead of NFL, and light years ahead of NBA, NHL, [and] FIFA" in its PED program.

Unsurprisingly, the Major League Baseball Player's Association has "overwhelmingly confirmed" the appointment of Tony Clark to the position of executive director, the organization announced via press release. Clark was named by the MLBPA Executive Board to the post back in December.

The longtime big leaguer took over at the helm for the deceased Michael Weiner, after having been appointed as Weiner's deputy last summer. "I am honored to receive the support of the general membership in conforming my appointment as executive director," Clark stated in the release. "I look forward to working on behalf of the fraternity of all Players, and to building on Michael's vision and the proud traditions and accomplished history of the Player's Association."

Which agency's players have the most MLB talent?  One way of answering that question is to rank the agencies by 2013 wins above replacement (from FanGraphs).  Here are the results for total 2013 WAR.  Please note that players with negative WAR were omitted, and cutoffs of 50 plate appearances for hitters and 20 innings for pitchers were used to remove smaller sample cases.

1. Boras Corporation: 132.9
2. Relativity Baseball: 107.4
3. Excel Sports Management: 72.0
4. CAA Sports: 70.8
5. ACES: 68.9
6. Wasserman Media Group: 62.6
7. Octagon: 44.8
8. The Legacy Agency: 43.6
9. MVP Sports Group: 41.8
10. Jet Sports Management: 25.5
11. Beverly Hills Sports Council: 23.5
12. Frontline: 22.8
13. TWC Sports: 21.2
14. LSW Baseball: 20.3
15. Kinzer Management Group: 19.7

Let's take a look at WAR per big league player, filtering to agencies with at least ten players.  WAR per player:

1. Boras Corporation: 2.42
2. Excel Sports Management: 2.18
3. Relativity Baseball: 2.03
4. Wasserman Media Group: 2.02
5. Jet Sports Management: 1.96
6. Frontline: 1.90
7. Kinzer Management Group: 1.79
8. MVP Sports Group: 1.74
9. Octagon: 1.72
10. LSW Baseball: 1.69
11. CAA Sports: 1.54
12. ACES: 1.47
13. The Legacy Agency: 1.36
14. All Bases Covered: 1.28
15. Beverly Hills Sports Council: 1.12

In some cases WAR per player is deceiving, because a large agency like Boras gets dinged for having small 2013 contributions from players like Xander Bogaerts or Jake Arrieta.  So, here's a listing of the number of four-win players by agency:

1. Boras Corporation: 11 (Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Gonzalez, Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday, Jose Fernandez)
2. Relativity Baseball: 5 (Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Verlander, Andrelton Simmons, Gerardo Parra)
3. ACES, Excel Sports Management, Wasserman Media Group: tied at 4

MVP Sports Group and Octagon had three each.

A look at three-win players by agency:

1. Boras Corporation: 20
2. Relativity Baseball: 14
3. Excel Sports Management: 11
4. Wasserman Media Group: 8
5. CAA Sports: 7
6. ACES: 6
7. Octagon: 5
8. Jet Sports Management, Kinzer Management Group, MVP Sports Group: tied at 3

Comparing these numbers to 2012, the Boras Corporation increased its total WAR by over 27% and came out on top in every category.  The agency continues to represent the most and best MLB talent.  The top ten from last year remains mostly the same, though Relativity (formerly SFX) is on the rise with star power and depth.  Jet Sports Management is a new entrant in the top ten, led by Chris Sale, new addition Mike Minor, Kyle Seager, and Brian McCann.

MLBTR's agency database was used for this post; please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com with any corrections or omissions.  Also, feel free to drop me a line if you'd just like to see your agency's entire list of players used for this post.

While some prominent names remain available, the free agent market is relatively settled at this point. (Click here to see who is left.) It would be surprising to see more than a few additional guaranteed MLB deals.

Given that, it seems like a good time to break down what each club has spent. You'll notice also that this provides some update on the total spending figures that I most recently calculated in late January. The total spend has now surpassed $2B. Unlike that post, I'll keep it simple and just give you the numbers today. 

And in chart form (click image for full size):

As has been previously discussed on MLBTR, the MLB collective bargaining agreement contains a provision that allows certain free agents who are signed to minor league contracts to receive a $100K retention bonus if they do not receive a binding promise to be added to the team's 25-man roster (or the Major League disabled list) five days prior to the season. If the team decides to pay the retention bonus, the player also receives a June 1st opt-out clause. Contracts can permissibly include terms that are more favorable to the player, such as greater retention bonuses and/or earlier opt-out clauses.

For the current season, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweets, decisions must be made by March 17th for the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, and by March 25th for the rest of the league. (Of course, at present, neither of the clubs opening play in Australia has signed an XX(B) free agent.) Last year, numerous XX(B) free agents received either a roster guarantee or a bonus from teams hoping to maintain control over the player.

There are many different ways to become a free agent, but only those players who reach free agency through Article XX(B) and certain international free agents are eligible for this added protection. There are two types of players who can qualify in this manner at the end of a season. (In either case, of course, the player must not already be a free agent; i.e., he must be on a club's 40-man roster upon the conclusion of the World Series.) First are those players who have accrued at least six years of Major League service time and are not under contract for the following season. Second are those players with expiring contracts who signed with an MLB club after turning 23 and after playing five seasons in one of the major international leagues. (In the below list, Kawasaki and Wada are examples.) In either case, the XX(B) free agenty must sign his minor league deal ten or more days prior to Opening Day to qualify for the added contractual protections.

Here is a list of this year's crop of Article XX(B) free agents who have signed minor league deals and thus come within the ambit of the rule, as of today. (Several other players likely to land minor league deals could also qualify — including names like Kevin Gregg and Juan Pierre — if they sign in time.)

Angels: John McDonald, Carlos Pena, Yorvit Torrealba, Chad Tracy

Astros: Cesar Izturis

Blue Jays: Munenori Kawasaki

Braves: Freddy Garcia

Brewers: Zach Duke, Lyle Overbay, Mark Reynolds

Cubs: Tsuyoshi Wada

Giants: Kameron Loe

Indians: David Aardsma, Aaron Harang

Mariners: Scott Baker, Endy Chavez, Humberto Quintero

Marlins: Reed Johnson

Mets: Kyle Farnsworth, Daisuke Matsuzaka

Nationals: Luis Ayala, Mike Gonzalez, Chris Snyder

Orioles: Alexi Casilla, Johan Santana, Delmon Young

Philies: Ronny Cedeno

Rays: Erik Bedard

Red Sox: Rich Hill

Reds: Jeff Francis, Ramon Santiago

Rockies: Nick Masset

Twins: Matt Guerrier, Jason Kubel