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The 2014 MLB Free Agent Tracker is now available at MLB Trade Rumors!  All free agents are listed, and you can filter by position, signing status, signing team, qualifying offer status, contract years and amount, throwing and batting handedness, and any combination of the above.  For the most part, our cutoff for a player's inclusion on the tracker is 50 MLB plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in 2013.  Led by Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka, our Top 50 Free Agents list with predictions will be published Sunday night.  For now, make your wish lists with the free agent tracker, read up with our free agent profiles, and check out my top ten free agents from earlier this month.  We also have a basic list that shows which free agents remain available at each position, found here.

The Red Sox front office will have little time to bask in the glow of the franchise's eighth World Championship.  Upcoming important dates:

• Players with at least six years of Major League service and no contract for 2014 are eligible to become free agents as of 8am central time today, October 31st.  That marks the opening of the Quiet Period.
• MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list with predictions will be published the evening of Sunday, November 3rd.  Our prediction contest will open at that time as well.
• The five-day Quiet Period ends at 10:59pm central time on Monday, November 4th.  During the Quiet Period, free agents may talk to any team about either side's interest, the player's potential role, the advantages and disadvantages of playing for that team and city, and length of a potential contract, guarantee provisions, and no-trade provisions.  A free agent may not, however, negotiate terms or contract with a new team during this period.  He may negotiate terms and enter into a contract with his former team.
• During the Quiet Period, the former team may tender a qualifying offer, which is a guaranteed one-year, $14.1MM deal for 2014.  Qualifying offer decisions by the team are due by 4pm central time on Monday, November 4th.  Check out MLBTR's qualifying offer reader poll from September for an idea of which free agents are likely to receive one.
• Additionally, option decisions must be decided by the end of the Quiet Period.  A large majority (all of them last year) will be resolved by 10:59pm central time on Saturday, November 2nd.
• Once the Quiet Period ends Monday night, free agents can negotiate with any team.
• A free agent has until Monday, November 11th by 4pm central time to accept a qualifying offer.  Any player who accepts is considered signed for 2014.  If a player declines a qualifying offer, his former team becomes eligible for compensation if the player signs a Major League contract with another Major League team before the 2014 draft.  The former team receives an amateur draft choice as compensation, while the signing team forfeits its highest available selection and the accompanying bonus pool money in the draft.
• Baseball's GM Meetings are from November 11-13th in Orlando, Florida.
• The non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players is December 2nd.
• Baseball's Winter Meetings are from December 9-12th, also in Orlando.

Some ideas are better in theory than in practice. I was tasked a while back by MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes to come up with a free agent salary system similar to the one Matt Swartz created for arbitration salaries. To put it simply, it was a failure. After coming to a agreement, Tim and I decided to scrap the idea and go our separate ways…until about a week ago when I decided to look at the problem a different way.

By using a weighting of similar production and age, a player's contract can be estimated by using a few comparable contracts. It is way too close to the hot stove season to create an estimate for all players, but I was able to scrap together a list starting pitcher salary estimates.

Below are my model's projected salaries using the top 21 free agent pitchers (ignoring Masahiro Tanaka and the recently extended Tim Lincecum). Also, the expected contracts from MLBTR's free agent profiles were added if one has been given.

Note: The salaries are based on inflation-adjusted 2013 salaries. If salaries increase 10% across the board this offseason, the values need to be adjusted accordingly. A confidence value is added. The closer the value is to 0, the more pitchers are similar in production to the pitcher in question.

Overall, the values hold up decently. The Similarity Projections estimate almost the same length in contracts, but thinks about $20M more will be spent. Also, with the the years in decimal format, it can be seen how uncertain a player may be in getting a certain number of years on his deal. For example, I have Tim Hudson at 1.6 years and $17.3M. Adjusting those values to one year, he gets $10.8M. It would increase to $21.6M for two years.

Individually, nothing seems completely out of whack. The one contract with the largest disagreement so far is Scott Kazmir's. Basically, there aren't many pitchers that don't pitch at all for two straight seasons and then come back to post an ERA near 4.00. The three most similar pitchers were Chris Capuano (2011), Jake Westbrook (2011) and Carl Pavano (2010). The trio averaged 155 innings in their comeback season and only 26 innings in the two seasons before their comeback. While I used more than three samples for the above value, the three averaged a salary of $9.4MM for 1.3 years (or adjusted to $7.3M for one season or $14.5M for two seasons).

Also, Roy Halladay's projected salary seems a bit out of place, but not many pitchers his age have gotten huge guarantees after the season he had last year. One of the top comparable contracts was the one Roy Oswalt signed in in 2012 at $5MM. Oswalt was younger and was coming off a better season.

The elephant in the room is Matt Garza. Demand has been limited in the past for starters who have averaged only 150 innings over the past three seasons. Unreliable pitchers have unreliable contracts. In terms of innings total, he is getting lumped in with the like of Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano. For example, last season Liriano had thrown 480 innings combined in the three previous seasons, with a noticeably worse ERA, but ended up with only a guaranteed 1-year deal for only 1MM. However, prior to his most recent contract, Jorge De La Rosa had similar numbers and received a three-year, $32MM deal. Right now, I think expectations may be a bit high on Garza's salary, since teams are willing to pay more for a reliable starter.

The model was just a year off with Lincecum, predicting $47.4MM over 2.9 years. That is equivalent to a a two-year, $32.7MM contract. The Lincecum deal is the first salary to determine how much salary inflation there is this season. His two-year, $35MM deal works out to 7% inflation. It is way too early to set an exact inflation amount, but it is something to keep an eye on.

The best part about this finding is that we should be able to complete the projection model well in advance of free agency next season, which could lead to a greater number of predictions. At the very least, the starting pitcher salaries that are handed out this offseason should serve as a reference point for future studies that will allow us to better set expectations for the free agent market.

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A deal reached between MLB and the players' association will allow major leaguers to participate in winter leagues this season, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports, citing anonymous sources with knowledge of the talks. The agreement was ratified by the Caribbean Confederation on Saturday and will permit players to report within a week.

The agreement will bar pitchers on the 40-man roster with a majority of their time spent at Double-A from participating in winter ball if they accumulated more than 140 innings, a decline from 155 innings in a previous agreement. The threshold has also been lowered for Double-A relievers, who will not be able to participate if they appeared in more than 45 games, a decrease from 55 appearances in previous years.

Restrictions were relaxed on major league position players, as those with up to 552 plate appearances will be allowed to participate, up from a previous limit of 502 PAs. Passan adds that the process of declaring "physical incapacity" for a player will now be more stringently regulated — teams were formerly able to do so by simply providing documentation. Other changes in the new deal include better equipment and fields, along with higher standards for clubhouses and bathrooms.

Sources told Yahoo that the negotiations grew tense as MLB sought to keep young pitchers from overworking their arms after long seasons and the union aimed to secure as much freedom for players as possible. At one point, the status of the negotiations reportedly caused some to worry that players on clubs' 40-man rosters would be prohibited from playing this year.

As Passan notes, the Venezuelan Winter League and Mexican Pacific League are scheduled to commence this week, while the Dominican Winter League starts Friday and the Puerto Rican League opens on Nov. 1.

There could be significant changes on the horizon for Cuban players, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Mexican League is working with the Cuban government to work out an agreement that would allow Mexico to import Cuban players to play in the Mexican League in the spring and summer. Those players would still be able to return to Cuba to play in Serie Nacional — Cuba's top professional league — over the winter.

The change would be significant, as the Mexican League could offer Cuban players significantly more in terms of salary than they are currently receiving to play in Serie Nacional. In addition to benefiting players, it would benefit Cuba, as the government would stand to profit by leasing player rights to Mexican teams.

Former Cuban stars German Mesa and Omar Linares have joined the Veracruz Red Eagles of the Mexican League, one of the two teams expected to be most active in recruiting Cuban imports, according to Badler. Veracruz is the same team that sold right-hander Luis Heredia's rights to the Pirates three years ago. Heredia is now one of Pittsburgh's top prospects, but Badler cautions that the new arrangement would not allow Cuban-born players to be sold to Major League organizations, even though the Mexican League is technically an affiliate of Minor League Baseball.

Mesa and Linares will work with Mexican-born players to develop them for the Red Eagles' top team and to be sold to big league clubs. Other examples of big league teams purchasing the rights to Mexican League prospects include Manny Banuelos of the Yankees, Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays and Julio Urias of the Dodgers.

Major League teams would benefit from the arrangement by being able to scout Cuban players with much greater ease. As it stands right now, the only time MLB scouts can see Cuban players live is during international tournaments; the rest of their scouting has to come via video footage from Cuba. Major League teams would be able to freely scout Cuban talent in Mexican League competition, however.

Eventually, it's possible that Japan and Korea could become involved in a similar arrangement, writes Badler. For now, the hope is that the additional salary earned by Cuban players in the Mexican League will curb some of the desire to defect to America. Cuba has seen several of its top players defect in recent years, including Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes, Leonys Martin, Jose Iglesias, Jose Dariel Abreu and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, among many others.

Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR.

• Hiroshi Yamauchi, the majority owner of the Mariners, passed away at age 85.
• The Phillies removed Ryne Sandberg's "interim" tag, making him their next manager.
• Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte will retire after the season.
• Padres outfielder Mark Kotsay will retire after the season.
• Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett is still considering whether to retire after the season.
• The Brewers claimed pitcher Josh Ravin from the Reds. To make room on their roster, they designated C/1B Blake Lalli for assignment.
• The Reds designated pitcher Kyle Lotzkar for assignment.
• The Orioles designated utilityman Wilson Betemit for assignment.
• The Yankees outrighted pitcher Jim Miller.
• The Royals promoted pitcher and top prospect Yordano Ventura.
• The Nationals received pitcher Matthew Spann from the Rays to complete the David DeJesus trade.
• The White Sox acquired pitcher Frank De Los Santos from the Rays for cash considerations.
• The Tigers signed pitcher Justin Miller to a minor-league deal.

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Back in February, I looked at vesting options from 2010, 2011, and 2012 to try and find out how often they were triggered over that span.  In total, just over 29% of vesting options were locked in for the following season.  If you think that's a low success rate for vesting options, just wait until you see this year's crop.  As the 2013 regular season winds down, we've got a pretty concrete idea of who has managed to successfully tack on additional year to their contract and who hasn't..

• Kurt Suzuki, Athletics: $9.25MM option vests with 113 starts in 2013.  Suzuki looked like he'd have a solid chance of securing his 2014 option early in the season as Wilson Ramos struggled to stay healthy, but the younger backstop ultimately returned to reclaim his starting job.  The 29-year-old was eventually traded back to Oakland without enough time on the clock to hit 113.  Now, it's a club option for next season worth $8.5MM with a modest $650K buyout.
• Jamey Carroll, Royals: $2MM option vests with 401 plate appearances.  Carroll surpassed that total in each of the last three seasons and even had 500+ plate appearances in 2011 and 2012, but he had significantly less this season.  With 191 PAs for the Twins and 31 for the Royals, he barely cleared the halfway mark.
• Koji Uehara, Red Sox: Uehara's contract was originally reported to be a one-year deal worth $4.25MM, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe and Alex Speier of WEEI learned last month that his deal contained a vesting option that would give him $4.25MM for next season with 55 appearances.  The veteran reached that goal on August 13th and just last night, he finished his 35th game of the season, boosting his '14 salary to a cool $5MM.  
• Wilson Betemit, Orioles: $3.2MM option vests with 324 plate appearances (combined 700 between 2012 and 2013). Betemit underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on March 26th and just got back to big league action in late August.  Needless to say, his option won't vest.
• Lance Berkman, Rangers: $13MM option vests with 550 plate appearances.  Injuries derailed Berkman's campaign once again in 2013 and he has just 70 games and 288 PAs to date.  Berkman was thinking about quitting mid-season rather than returning, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him retire after this season.
• Roy Halladay, Phillies: $20MM option vests with 259 innings pitched (combined 415 innings pitched between '12 and '13).  This was a longshot to begin with, but shoulder surgery earlier this season makes this one impossible.
• Brett Myers, Indians: $8MM option vests with 200 innings pitched in 2013 and a passed physical after the season.  After logging 21 and 1/3 innings in 2013, Myers was sidelined with tendinitis and a mild ligament sprain in his right elbow and was eventually cut loose.
• Barry Zito, Giants: $18MM option vests with 200 innings pitched. Zito has just 128 innings through 24 starts and four relief outings to his credit this season, so he won't get to lock in his sizable 2014 salary.
• Johan Santana, Mets: His $25MM option could have vested with 215 innings pitched or winning the 2013 Cy Young Award, but he won't have a chance at that thanks to a season-ending tear in his pitching shoulder.
• Francisco Liriano, Pirates: The nature of Liriano's contract with the Pirates was shrouded in secrecy, but our own Steve Adams got the goods last month.  The left-hander's 2014 option ($5MM) officially vested when he reached 90 days not spent on the DL due to the right arm injury. Now, he' s increased that number to $6MM after reaching 120 games on Saturday, Sept. 7.  He could have reached $8MM for 2014 with a total of 150 games, but he spent too much time on the sidelines to have that opportunity. 

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