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Update: Prior-Tejada Trade

By Tim Dierkes [December 23, 2005 at 10:40am CST]

A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.

According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:

Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.

Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value. Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year. As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.

While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior's history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team. He's averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons. Interesting quote in Buster Olney's blog for ESPN this morning:

"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior's recent medical history."

Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior's caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability. He's averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons.

Any discussion surrounding Bedard's potential inevitably references his first half of 2005. He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break. Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard's walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine. He's walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors. According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers). Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.

Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec's opinion on all of this?

"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."