Tribune: Cubs Believe Ramirez Will Stay

According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune:

"While the Cubs still believe Aramis Ramirez won't exercise his opt-out clause after this season and leave $22 million on the table to become a free agent, they do have a third baseman in the system with a bright future. West Tenn's Scott Moore, a 22-year-old prospect who was a first-round draft pick of Detroit in 2002, is tied for second in the Southern League with 20 home runs and ranks third with 68 RBIs. Moore, who was acquired with Roberto Novoa from Detroit in the Kyle Farnsworth trade, is at least a year away from the majors."

Ramirez's contract, signed in April of last year, calls for $11MM in 2007 and $11.5MM in 2008.  The deal also has an $11MM mutual option for '09 that becomes guaranteed with 270 games played from 2007-08.  How likely is this?  Here's a look at Ramirez's games played.

Age 23: 158 games
Age 24: 142 games
Age 25: 159 games
Age 26: 145 games
Age 27: 123 games
Age 28: 158 games (projected)

2005, Ramirez dealt with groin problems, lower back tightness, a sprained ankle, a bruised shin, and a quad injury.  The quad injury is what really caused the missed time, and it looks like an exception rather than the norm.  So I think it's safe to say Ramirez is looking at a three-year, $33.5MM deal for his age 29-31 seasons.

One has to wonder whether the Tribune is quietly laying the groundwork for the Scott Moore era in Chicago.  Paul Sullivan hasn't been a company man, though, so there are probably no hidden motives.  Cubs fans can rest easy for the moment; it appears Ramirez will remain a Cub.

The offseason won't be without temptation, however.  Ramirez's toughest competition at the hot corner: Aubrey Huff and Nomar Garciaparra.  He's younger, he's better, and he's healthier than that pair.  The most comparable contract might be Troy Glaus at four guaranteed years, $45MM for 2005-08.  Glaus was entering his age 28 season, though he'd played just 149 games from 2003-04.  Ramirez, on the other hand, just posted his third consecutive 30 HR campaign.  There's no doubt he could get four guaranteed years (as opposed to the current two) and at least $13MM annually. 

Either Ramirez A)doesn't exercise his out clause and honors his deal (which is a hometown discount), B)tests the free agent market and finds several superior offers, or C)renegotiates his current deal.  Jim Hendry hopes for A; C seems a lot more likely.      

Comments

[Kramerica Industries]

Teams that may want/need a thirdbaseman for next season-

1.Padres
2.Red Sox
3.Twins
4.Angels
5.Dodgers

Thats all the teams i van come up with as possible teams besides the Cubs

The Padres really need someone but i dont know if they have enough money over the la teams and Boston and that goes same with the twins

A-Ram can do better then the deal he could at least get a Edgar Renteria contract 4 years 40 million

[Phightens]

you left the phillies off your list of teams in need of a third baseman

[Kramerica Industries]

o yes i knew forgot some teams

on a side note David Wells cleared waivers and would be a nice addition to a contender(?)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2556812

[Rayman]

Guess that means the Red Sox have decided 2006 is over.

[DentalPlan]

If Aramis Ramirez became a free agent I think the Angels would be interested.

Scott Moore is, how do I put this, total crap. We've all seen this prototype of player come through and fail miserably time and time again. Look at his strikeout ratio - Moore is nothing more than a bargain-bin version of Dallas McPherson, and Dallas McPherson isn't good either. Moore doesn't even Dallas McBranyan's walk rate or power numbers.

If the Tribune plan is to replace Ramirez with Moore, the Cubs can get nice and comfy cellar-dwelling; they'll be there for a long time.

[obsessivegiantscompulsive]

The Giants will also be looking for a 3B unless they resign Pedro Feliz or Sean Hillenbrand

[start_wearing_purple]

"It ain't over til it's over" By the way is it sad that a red sox fan quoted that to a yankees fan and the yankee fan asked "who said that."

But yes, it's looking very grim for the Sox. Enough to say something big will have to happen for the Sox to come back. Now my hope is the Twins make the playoffs because they deserve it and the Phillies lose out by a half a game so I can laugh at Pat Gillick.

Though Kramerica, seriously what do you have against Mike Lowell?

Dental, can the Angels afford what Ramirez will probably pull in? Though they really need someone to bat behind Vlad

[Kramerica Industries]

Nothing at all against Mike Lowell I love his glove but I think the Red Sox need a bat behind Manny and Ortiz and A Ram is a good choice for that.
And while Mike Lowell over all numbers are decent he is hitting 231 after the All star break which looks alot like the line that he put up last year with the marlins

[DentalPlan]

Yeah, the Angels can afford it. They'll be rid of contracts like Garrett Anderson, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon very shortly.