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2007 New York Mets

Let's see what's in store for the Mets next year.  Their playoff appearance this year should ensure that ownership spends some more money to plug any holes.

By the way, you can read any of my 2007 Team Outlooks here. 

Omar Minaya's contractual obligations:

C - Paul LoDuca - $6.5MM
C - Ramon Castro - $0.8MM
1B - Carlos Delgado - $14.5MM
2B -
SS - Jose Reyes - $2.5MM
3B - David Wright - $1MM
IF - Julio Franco - $1.1MM
IF - Ruben Gotay - $0.3405MM, Anderson Hernandez - $0.327MM
LF - Lastings Milledge - $0.415MM
CF - Carlos Beltran - $12MM
RF - Shawn Green - $3.7MM
OF - Endy Chavez - $0.5MM

SP - Pedro Martinez - $14MM
SP - Tom Glavine - $7.5MM player option; $14MM club option. Both have $3MM buyout
SP - Oliver Perez - $1.9MM
SP - Brian Bannister - $0.327MM
SP - Philip Humber - $0.84MM
SP - Mike Pelfrey - $1.3125MM
SP - John Maine - $0.33MM
SP - Victor Zambrano - $3MM
SP - Dave Williams - $1.4MM
RP - Alay Soler - $0.93MM

RP - Billy Wagner - $10.5MM
RP - Duaner Sanchez - $0.3995MM
RP - Aaron Heilman - $0.359MM
RP - Heath Bell - $0.33MM
RP - Henry Owens - $0.33MM
RP - Pedro Feliciano - $0.33MM
RP - Royce Ring - $0.33MM
RP - Matt Lindstrom - $0.33MM

The Mets come in at about $81MM with this group, excluding Glavine.  If Glavine were to stay maybe the sides would meet in the middle at $11MM.  While it's true that not every player listed above will receive a Major League salary, some guys will get raises.  Let's say they're at $95MM with Glavine, and $84MM without.  The Mets entered the season with a $101MM payroll.

One hole the Mets should fill is second base.  There are your usual mid-range free agents, and then there's Alfonso Soriano.  Soriano could be used in left field if the Mets trade Milledge or decide he's not ready.  Recent word is that Sori will be priced out of the Mets' range.  I think that's silly given the playoff revenue and payroll room.  Sure, the Mets don't need him.  But why not build a National League juggernaut?  His offense could become vital if, say, a 35 year-old Delgado gets hurt or declines.  There's also Julio Lugo, who would be happy to play second as a Met.

As I said, the Mets can go with Milledge in left.  Or right, if you think flip-flopping him with Green improves the defense.  With a win now team like the Mets, Milledge probably isn't who you want starting in the outfield.  The Yankees would not enter 2007 with Melky Cabrera in left, especially if Cabrera had just 162 big league ABs.  Minaya can just leave him in Triple A, wait until he hits so well that there's no choice but to play him.  In the meantime there are fine options like Moises Alou and David Dellucci on the market.  Either player would make sense on a two-year deal.

The position players are otherwise set in stone, and the outlook is good.

The pitching situation is also very promising. The Mets are literally ten-deep in the rotation.  And it's not all mid-range guys, as Perez, Humber, and Pelfrey have a lot of upside.  It'll be hard to do if he becomes a playoff hero, but the Mets should probably let Glavine go to the Braves.  Maybe that's what Glavine will prefer anyway.  The Mets just have tons of far cheaper, comparable starting options.  Maybe the recent "we don't need Zito" thing is a smokescreen, but the Mets really don't need Zito.   

The bullpen looks equally deep.  It's anchored by Wagner and Sanchez.  Beyond that plenty of cheap, young players are showing promise.  I wouldn't tinker with the pen.

If I'm Omar, I would sign Soriano to play second.  Yes, it's a deal that won't end well.  It's the price you pay to get the available star without giving up young talent.  I'd also pick up Alou for left field and find a respectful way to have Glavine move on.  Then I'd let the chips fall for April and May and see if I need anything.  If Pedro isn't holding up, or several of the younger starters falter, I'd try to trade for Jason Jennings or Jake Westbrook.   

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It is hard to say, but this team looks good. I still think they should look for an average second baseman and spend the money on a good starter and reliever since both the rotation and bullpen look pretty weak and unproven. If the rumors are true that Glavine is going to opt out and sign with the Braves, then they will really be hurting. Pedro is in a sharp decline which is to be expected from a power pitcher later in his career. He has become injury-prone and I really expect him to post no better than a 3.80 or 3.90 and not even touch 200 innings. Perez could be good, but there are a lot of questions and Maine, Soler, Pelfrey, Humber, and Bannister are unproven. And Zambrano and Williams would not even make good 5th starters for a playoff team. Their is talent in the bullpen, but one or two good middle relievers would go along way.

I think the Mets have a lot of options but few are guarantees. The pitching staff has a lot of talent but also a lot of question marks. I would let Milledge win the job out of spring training just to see what he can do. His debut wasnt great but I still bet almost every GM would love to have him.

Just a thought but you should do one of these for the Yanks. As they will have some serious money coming off the books and need to fix the starting rotation badly.

1. Milledge is not a big prospect. If he was a second baseman, yeah, maybe he hits enough. But as a corner OF, he's got a decidedly crappy future.

2. Soler and Zambrano are rubbish. Period. Soler MIGHT be a decent reliever, but that's it. I'd be comfortable with Bannister as an emergency starter.

3. I agree with the Soriano suggestion.

4. I really don't like the idea of signing a middling starter for 7.5M per. The Mets, thankfully, were able to dump Benson and get two decent starters for him.

I'd much rather take a risk and go with the young guys. They will need time to develop eventually, so it might as well be now.

Our bullpen is pretty weak and unproven?

Try best bullpen in the majors. Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, Feliciano, Oliver.

Oh yeah sooo weak...

1. I say platoon Chavez and Milledge
2. Sign Mulder to a one year deal
3. Trade for Callaspo or Hudson from Arizona for second base (Bannister)
4. Agree about glavine...just say bye
5. I'm willing to trade for Willis...yes Pelfrey and Milledge are worth it. If that happens sign C. Lee.
6. Tigers, Cardinals or Nats will pay Soriano way too much money
7. Sign Mota trade R. Hernandez

oh yeah I forgot...say no to Manny....no more trade rumors about him

Sadly Cyprus the Ramirez rumors will come up again with the Mets and he will be traded alot of teams that lose out on Soriano will want him i can think of many teams that will make a run

how quickly you turn on your own prospects... you were singing milledge's praises before the year started and now he has a decidedly crappy future? c'mon erik dont be so tough on the kid..

I think that Milledge could be a good major leaguer. He seems to profile as a poor man's carl crawford. I don't think he deserves the hype he has. He's got a wild swing, bad defense, and he doesn't have 40 SB speed.

*how quickly you turn on your own prospects... you were singing milledge's praises before the year started and now he has a decidedly crappy future? c'mon erik dont be so tough on the kid.*

Then I saw he was 5 foot nothing and had an awful swing. After a week of watching him hack like a blind woodsman, I had seen enough.

*He seems to profile as a poor man's carl crawford.*

Milledge has NOTHING in common with Crawford. Milledge is small, steals bases at a poor rate, plays crappy defense, strikes out too much, has a terrible swing, can't cover the plate, and is a AAAA player. I'd trade Milledge and Heilman for Crawford in a split-second.

Milledge sucks. PERIOD. These are the same scouts that said Cano and Cabrera wouldn't hit. IF YOU CAN'T LIFT THE BALL, YOU CAN'T HIT HOMERUNS.

Hey jersey you want to sign mulder, ya, mulder's career is done, hes not even worth a draft pick, his arm is completely shot, we cant make any assumptions about milledge yet, we did that with Kazmir and it bit us in the ass. I say we keep him in the minors until he's batting like .335 and then we bring him up, he still needs to be seasoned.

That's great, but that wasn't my post...

The name goes under the comment. Mine was regarding the Mets kickass bullpen.

It makes little sense to sign Soriano. The Mets do have some kind of budget, they're not the Yankees. You guys talk like signing another $16 million player is nothing.

Some of the trades proposed by fans on here are downright ridiculous. If the team needs anything, it's more starting pitching, not another $16 million offensive player who will certainly max out the budget.

I have to disagree with signing Soriano. he would be vastly overpriced, and his atrocious defense at second will hurt your team. keeping Jose Valentine is just fine.

I think you are way too optimistic on the Met's starting pitching, I agree their bullpen is great, but the SP is not. going into the season with a Pedro that can barely touch 90, (not to meantion still havn't turned in a healthy season) and the rest of the rotation filled with mediocarity (Trachsel, Zambrano) and alot of "potentials" is a terrible idea. MUCH more riskier than platooning Milliedge / Chavez in the OF next year IMHO.

The Mets abosalutely must go for a top of the line starter this year as their main target, either Zito or Matsuzaka. With all the talks on the Yanks and Ms running away with the race for Mats, i don't get why other teams like the Mets... that have significant room to improve payroll and would far more benifit from a Japanese star than the Yankees and M's (whom already have a plenty of Japanese stardom) wouldnt' have more interest to out bid those two teams. (other candidates are Astros and Giants... and even the O's)

I would make a very serious bid for Matsuzaka or Zito. let Glavine walk. and hope your "potentials" could fill the back rotation...

As for Milledge, well, the Met's offense is just fine even if they carry a below average corner OF, and I think Milledge's D can improve siginificantly, the bat i'm not so sure, but at least i could see him be a above replacement bat.

I don't think Milledge is that useless either. I don't think the Mets have handled him that well and now some of the bloom is off the rose.

I agree with the above poster, bring home Matsuzaka and sit pretty. I don't like Soriano's chances at repeating a 40-40 season, the offense will be fine, but they need a top starter like Matsuzaka significantly more.

Mark Loretta would be a good fit for the mets, mind you I want him to goto the jays.

"NYCBOY21"
People have a tendency to forget that Mulder was hurt and it threw his mechanics off...he's coming cheap next year because teams will be afraid of his injury...1yr won't hurt...the guy is going to pitch his butt off to get a longterm deal...just like Millwood did.
And you guys need to go look at Callaspo from Arizona...he would fit perfectly on this team...Soriano is way to expensive.

Agree with just about everything Yu Hsing said.

The rotation is close to being in shambles. Glavine might be the most overrated pitcher in baseball (after Zito, of course). Sorry, I just do not want to tie up 8 figures per year in pitchers who magically keep their ERAs below 4 with no peripherals to speak of.

Pedro is throwing 82 mph. Counting on him to be healthy at all for the remainder of the contract is idiotic. I'd expect 120 good innings from him next year.

After that you've got Maine (pretty good), Pelfrey (great potential, a perfect 5th starter - slot him there and see what he does).

Trachsel is another good 5th starter, Zambrano should be avoided at all costs.

Basically you've got a questionable ace in Pedro and a bunch of 5th starters, albeit some with a lot of potential (Humber, Pelfrey). Problem is, you can't go into the season like that. The Mets need a couple good to very good starters. They also can't afford to take on reclamation projects (Mulder) because they will impede the growth of the kids.

Zito will end up being the worst FA signing of the year, so he shouldn't even be considered.

The SP FA crop isn't great, but I guess I'd try to get Schmidt and Padilla/Pettitte/Moyer for ~$18-20M total per year for 2-3 years.

The bullpen is great, nobody said it wasn't (but please don't count on Oliver next year).

I mentioned before that they should have tried to get Callaspo in the Shawn Green deal. Like Oliver, if you count of Valentin to repeat, you'll be sorry. I'd stay away for Lugo too. Soriano? Too expensive considering his defense will hurt you and for the great season he's had, he's still not one of the top players in the game.

I don't know if I'm comfortable with mediocrity at both corner OF spots. I think giving Milledge every chance to win the job is fine (and if not, platoon him with Chavez), but you need another bat there. They should do whatever it takes to dump Green. Get Manny? Shouldn't be immediately thrown out, especially if the Sox would pick up a couple million or include prospects (or Loretta).

Or there are a lot of other good FA corner OF available.

So yeah:

- Dump Glavine. Go for Schmidt. Sign another good FA starter.

- Get a decent 2nd baseman.

- Dump Green at all costs, get a decent OF.

That should add about $35M or so, which should be very doable.

Sorry, should have added Matsuzaka in there as an alternative to Schmidt.

Signing Schmidt would be akin to the Pedro signing. You are just creating a problem you will have to clean up around 2009. Throwing more money at it.

Pettitte, Padilla, Moyer? I'd rather keep the money and try Pedro, Oliver Perez, Maine, Bannister, and Pelfrey/Humber. It's probably less risky to see what the kids can do than to depend on and throw tons of cash at a 35 year-old with chronic elbow problems, a head case, and a 44 year-old who probably doesn't want to come to NY. If it doesn't work out, then make some deals.

On the bullpen...

I think your prediction their is a little off. Ring, Owens and Bell have not exactly been lights out in their appearances this year. I would imagine only one of those three make the club.

Also I would be suprised if we didn't resign Mota or Bradford since they have been very good for us this year.

Also with Juan Padilla set to come back that may affect either of the above two spots.

I could also see Dave Williams as the long man out of the pen ala Darren Oliver. Something the Mets really need with their shaky rotation.

Also Roberto Hernandez had a two year deal with the Pirates so he will probably make the team coming out of spring training.

Wagner
Sanchez
Heilman
Feliciano
R. Hernandez
Ring/Bell/Owens
Mota/Bradford
Williams

I think the prediction on Julio Lugo is correct. I am pretty sure he is going to New York.

I still think the Mets are going to make a run at one of the BIg 3 pitchers on the market.

I would love to see a prediction for the Dodgers.

Roto, you could do that. But that would be even riskier, and something that's not really tolerated in NY (especially after their 2006). Schmidt on a 2 year deal with a lucrative, incentive-based option is not very risky (though I'm not sure if it's possible - someone will probably give him 4). In terms of riskiness, Zito for $100M/7 (or whatever) is virtually guaranteed to be a worse deal than whatever Schmidt gets (and that's even if Schmidt never throws a single inning for his new team). I said it before, giving ME $30M over 3 years will be a better deal that Zito's. Yes, I know you're not an advocate of signing Zito, but somehow, amazingly, some people here still are.

Yes, that rotation has potential. Pelfrey could be a #2 next year (and I am a big fan of his), but he could easily struggle. Same with everyone else. What do you think of Maine's upside (I honestly don't know all that much about him)? Bannister wasn't even in their plans until his spring this year. Humber's probably further away than Pelfrey.

Perez - I think you and I know about as much as anyone in the majors about him. Again, counting on him is foolish.

I do think the Mets could find a suitable 3,4,5 out of those guys, but the problem is they just can't keep losing games to find out who they are. Not in New York. And not with the Phillies (my early favorite for 2007) and others on their tail.

Schmidt makes perfect sense - again, relatively low risk because of the contract length (and if he's getting 4 years, forget it), a capable ace (and replacement for Pedro if/when he goes down), and probably most importantly, it makes the first 2 slots in the rotation no-brainers assuming their health.

Then if Perez can find the plate in the spring (a monstrous "if"), he's your #3, then let the kids battle it out for 4 and 5 and hope you decide right.

At least you don't risk losing 4 out of every 5 games while you figure stuff out.

Remember, this team's offense is built around 4 players. If one gets hurt or declines (granted, Delgado is probably the only candidate for decline), the offense really suffers, and a staff full of injury risks and kids trying to figure it out won't cut it.

Who's the head-case? Padilla? I like him as an alternative to Schmidt (or even with him). He's safe, and is a capable #2, especially in the NL. Pettitte is the risk, but he'd likely come with an incentive-laden deal. I guess you could lump him with Pelfrey, Perez, etc. as guys who could be really good, or not, so maybe he's not such a good fit - I take that back, a little.

Moyer would add stability - something they need, for sure.

Pelfrey certainly has the talent to be a number two or three, but with a rookie pitcher you have to hope for the best and plan for the worst.

The majority of the roster is Veterans. They are starting to look like the Yankees by how many Veterans they have. One of the Players they should of not traded was Nady. That was a mistake. He is better on defense and offense than Miledge. One of the bright sides of the Nady deal was Perez. He is starting to look like the Perez of old, but he's not quite there yet.

was385, you said it best (and I think Pelfrey has the talent to be a #1).

But you never know how he'll turn out - hope for the best and plan for the worst is right.

And you don't do that with your entire rotation, especially in NY.

Hey PadresFan, you're not a Padres fan, are you? Maybe they should get Sean Burroughs too? ;)

Nady's nice but he's not someone to build around, and I don't think his defense is anything special (though I could be wrong). I think it was a good gamble for the Mets, especially since they needed a reliever with Sanchez out.

Milledge certainly has vastly more potential and with their offense, they could afford to take a risk.

wow. i REALLY love how people criticize milledge on being a horrible player, his swing sucks, bad defense, etc. but guess what? HE'S 21 YEARS OLD. werent people criticizing reyes on his play when he came up? "he cant hit that curve ball..." guess what again? he got experience, he learned to hit that dreadful curveball, NOW LOOK AT HIM. i'm realllyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy sick of people hating on milledge. we got greedy, people..not all prospects shine at 22 years old like wright and reyes. rarely any do..most prospects are ready at 24-26..prime example: RYAN HOWARD. he's 26 going on 27 soon, and he's a monster at the plate. so PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE dont jump ship on milledge. as for his defense, didnt wright and reyes both make alot of errors in their debut seasons? yes. dont even tell me that infield is more difficult, because i'd like to see you play a major league outfield yourself. give it time, and by the time the new stadium opens, everyone will love milledge and the ones who hated on him now will feel very stupid indeed.

as for the offseason, soriano would be a good fit for this team with all the latino players..but to me, NO. too expensive..although another bat would be great, i'd rather have someone like a carlos lee or jermaine dye in the outfield and make shawn green platoon with milledge. thank god woodward is gone after the season, btw. so, valentin becomes woodward of last year..i read somewhere in one of the comments to not count on valentin to have a season like this next year, and i agree 100%. i say let anderson hernandez play 2nd base..to all you haters out there, he's a gold glove caliber 2nd baseman, and although valentins defense was solid, ahern will be solid and more.. his offense may be lacking at best, but i'd take the risk. everything else the same.

i say let glavine walk back to atlanta to get his 300 wins and goodbye charlie. trach is a FA (thank god) and zambrano should not even be considered. heres my rotation:
1. pedro martinez
2. jason schmidt
3. john maine
4. oliver perez
5. bannister, pelfrey, or whoever else tries to battle for the 5th spot.)

ollie has the stuff. 2004? 12-10 (for a wayyyyyy sub .500 team), 2.98 ERA, with more Ks than innings pitched...if he gets his pitches under control and gets his velocity back up to 93-96, he will be unhittable...dont give up on him people..his problem was mental. i say give him a shot. he has the stuff to potentially be an ace(that is, if he gets his walks down of course).

bullpen..nothign much to say other than RELEASE/TRADE ROBERTO HERNANDEZ. how many IP with us this year? 15? not enough of an impact (we miss u nady, even though your jackass GM gave us a potentially incredible starter in oliver perez). once we get sanchez back, plus re-signing chad bradford, PLUS juan padilla coming back from tommy john surgery, our bullpen looks pretty set next season.

thats what i think..hate it or love it


georgek, agree completely.

But I think you can only live with Hernandez's offense at 2nd if you upgrade big-time at a corner OF spot. I like a Green/Milledge platoon except that Milledge is on the wrong end of it. Oh well...if they can't get rid of Green, that will work.

Perez is a useful guy to have, because I think you'll pretty much know at the end of the spring if he can pitch or not. I heard earlier this year he lost velocity, and obviously he lost his control. But if he looks good in the spring, he's #4 (or flip-flop with Maine). If not, to the minors you go, and let the kids (and the inevitable journeyman veterans) battle it out for 4 and 5.

Glad to see you agree with Schmidt. Personally I think he's a perfect fit for the Mets. Not a real long term committment, innings-eater, ace potential, good tutor for the kids (power pitchers should tutor power pitchers and finesse guys finesse guys).

Between Schmidt and Pedro on average, the Mets can reasonably expect to have about 1.5 true bona fide aces for about $25M, which is a better return than all but a handful of teams can claim.

It also gives them the potential of two top starters for the playoffs next year, which they can hardly say this year (and which is why they'll be making an early exit). I think the Cardinals are the only NL playoff contender they can beat in a short series. Go ahead - rip me apart, Mets fans.

No way you get Schmidt for two years, unless you offer him $40MM.

You're right, I have no idea why I thought he was ~4 years older. I take everything back about him.

But at $40/2 years, he'd still be a better signing than Zito ;)

This is a very good Mets baseball team that should win the division for years to come. When is John Schuerholtz and my Atlanta Braves going to decide to actually spend some money on quality players besides the Jones Bros. Thats what we need. That and more pitching.

I think the Met's hold on the division next couple of years is no guarntee... not with the way the Phillies are playing and how the Marlins might develop.

Again, Roto, can you really justfiy going into the season with a rotation of

Pedro- health risk, major decline in stuff.

Zambrano - he's victor zambrano, he has no upsides.

and a lot of kids? Oliver is a huge huge gamble, and I seriously doubt he can revert to 2004 form. Maine is nice ,but no real guarntee, Pelfrey probably will be good eventrually, but again no real guarntee next year. and the other guys are at best mediocare (Bannister) and most are probably garbage (Solar) so your essentally going into the season with a rotation of uncertainty + mediocarity. that's a horrible idea.

You have to realize, the Phillies are the best offense in the league, and might be just as good next year. their rotation have some serious upsides as well in Myers and Hamels AND they have stability with Lieber and Moyer. and their bullpen is far from bad.... the Braves can still be a threat if Hampton and Hudson goes right next year and they put together a real bullpen. the Marlins are always a wild card.

at the very least they need to go grab an ace, I think they REALLY should make a run at Matsuzaka, or see if Mussina is avalible. I'm not completely down on Zito but it really depends on how many years.

I think the NL East division will be the strongest division in the NL. Mets, Phillies, Atlanta and Florida all have some serious upside to them.

Hey bobo, you're right about Nady he's not the one to build a ball club around. But he does perform. He may not be like a Beltran, or even a Bay but he comes through.


As far as me being a Padresfan, I am and proud. Screw Burroughs he was garbage, a waste of human skin.


Maybe Miledge will prove everybody wrong including myself. Like I said "I don't think he mount out to be anything." Thats my opinion.

Not counting on Zambrano for anything. You didn't even mention Humber, who is one of the game's top RH starters. There's no basis for calling Soler garbage, either.

The 2006 Mets have a 4.66 starter ERA. You can pay Vicente Padilla to do that, which is plenty risky, or you can see if Pedro, Pelfrey, Bannister, Humber, Maine, and Perez can do it without spending any money. Just as they did this year, the Mets can easily make trades after a couple month trial.

I'm all for signing an ace. There are maybe 3: Schmidt, Matsuzaka, Zito. There are more than 3 teams trying to get these guys, but the Mets can try. I don't perceive it as a need; more of a luxury.

I am coming pretty late to the party, but I think it is worth mentioning that the Mets may finally be in the position to let Heilman have his chance in the rotation.

I think Pelfrey has proven mostly that he needs more seasoning. While everyone seems to love his fastball, the bottom line is that he has extremely average secondary pitches. Honestly, I think Phil Humber is more advanced.

Further, while I can make the argument for letting him go, I just don't see the Mets letting TGlavine walk this close to 300 wins.

I'd love to see the Mets go after Matsuzaka, but in all likelihood I think we're really looking at:

Pedro
TG
Ollie Perez
John Maine
Heilman/Humber/Bannister

That's not a bad rotation with some depth to account for any (likely) further injury woes with Pedro.

I also think the Mets would be smart to resign El Duque to handle long relief/spot starts.

My pen would be:

Wagner
Sanchez
Mota
Feliciano
El Duque
Bradford
Ring/some other situational lefty/Henry Owens

That changes if Aaron doesn't get a rotation spot. Heath Bell is gone after the season, probably in a trade (as he has worth).

Nrmax, I am deleting most of your recent posts. I don't really have any set rules but:

Don't insult people
Don't ramble for 10 pages and kill the discussion
You don't need to comment on everyone's comment
The rah rah Mets everyone else sucks thing gets old.

yo rotoauthority...
go fuck yourself u cocksucking faget howbout that

lol people dont know what the fuck their talking about, go read that shit
lol realeric takes the cake for biggest dickhead though

rotoauthority very sorry about these comment my little brother, apologies for anything he said.

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