Adam Dunn On The Block?

Is it possible, in this day and age, for a player like Adam Dunn to be undervalued?  I think so.  As Lonnie Wheeler informs us, it's "not working" with the big guy.  Dunn turns 27 in November.  He'll make $10.5MM in 2007 and has a $13MM club option for '08.

So what exactly isn't working with Dunn?  He's hit 126 home runs over the past three seasons.  Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have more.  Dunn also has a .380 OBP over the last three seasons.  Better than Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, or Andruw Jones.

The problems, of course, are the strikeouts and low batting averages.  Sportswriters just can't take this.  You just can't convince some people that a guy who hits .240 and whiffs 190 times is a premiere player.

Dunn slipped all the way to .229/.360/.416 after the All-Star break, and that certainly contributed to the Reds' demise.  But I don't think 250 ABs should erase Dunn's previous body of work.  He's pretty close to a lock for 40 HRs and a .370 OBP.  You better believe that's worth $10 mil.  Baseball Prospectus says Dunn is worth about $53MM for 2007-10. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some smart team fleece Wayne Krivsky for Dunn.  You'll notice I said smart,which probably rules out the Cubs.  That's a shame - would Bob Howry and Scott Eyre get it done?  One could envision the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, A's, Rangers, Brewers, or Diamondbacks acquiring Dunn this winter. 

Comments

[Rayman]

The Indians are in need of a Left-fielder as well. They also have a surplus of young bullpen arms. Sounds like it's right up Krivsky's alley.

[was385]

If an AL team could get this guy to DH then it would be a great pickup. Most bad defensive outfielders may not have good range or can't make the great plays, but can still catch the ball and make the easier plays. Dunn can't do any of that, he has got to be the worst defensive player in the major leagues at any position. This guy turns fly balls right to him into adventures and quite a few times a year will just miss them.

[Kyle]

Is there a reason why a team just wouldnt shift him back to first base. I would love for the Yanks to make an offer and see if they could get him as a new first baseman, wont happen but I would love it. Any team could use a guy who hits 40 homers at a .370 OBP. Most people dont understand that, they want the batting average. If they are going to sell him at a low price some team is gonna get real lucky.

[Kramerica Industries]

I predict that Adam Dunn will be starting firstbase for the Boston Red Sox next year his bad could replace Manny or if Manny stays he will be that number 5 hitter the Red Sox desperatly need.
I was thinking a deal centered around Craig Hansen the Reds dont have that young closer of the future in the minors that i know of

[TNS]

Kramerica, you are right that Dunn is a perfect fit with the Red Sox. Where you are wrong is that Craig Hansen would be involved in the deal. With Papelbon going back to the rotation, the bullpen's now a weakness (again). Hansen is still viewed as a potential longterm stud in the pen. Unforuntately they tried to get him to do too much (changed his approach) & it resulted in a down year. With the new pitching coach coming in, the Hansen investment isn't going to end. Off hand I don't know the Reds' system weaknesses so I can't give you a better package idea but I can tell you that Hansen wouldn't move without the bullpen being reloaded prior to the deal.

[was385]

Is Lowell's contract up and if not, where would Youkilis play?

[start_wearing_purple]

Lowell's contract isn't up but he could be flipped for big prospect

[gatling]

I'm surprised no one mentioned Houston. I think it's the most likely place Dunn ends up. I think a package of Pence and Albers is a good starting point. Dunn will end up Houston as a free agent in 2009 if he's not dealt there, and Pence could replace Dunn in the OF in 2007 and Albers could slot into the back of the rotation.

[Jerry]

Don't forget the Mariners. The M's are looking for a lefthanded hitter to play LF or DH. Perfect.

With Dunn and Richie Sexson, the M's would rack up the K's. But the M's have a problem with team OBP, and Dunn would help fix that.

If the Reds are looking for bullpen help, the M's would be a great match. They have power relievers to spare.

How about a package including Rafael Soriano?

[Zonis]

Dunn would be absolutly perfect for the A's.

The A's need a 1st Baseman/Left Fielder, and could easily plug Dunn at First and put Dunn Lite (Swisher) in Left.

The A's love Slugging and On Base, with not not caring much about Batting Average, so they would not be afraid of taking Dunn.

But there is one thing you forgot to mention: Trading for Dunn would be a ONE YEAR deal, not two. If I remember correctly, the Option year goes away if he is traded (not sure if Dunn can decide if it goes or not, or if it is just automatic) away from Cincinatti.

C1 Kendall
LF Swisher
1B Dunn
DH Thomas
3B Chavez
RF Bradley
SS Crosby
CF Kotsay
2B Ellis

One can dream, can't they?

[DentalPlan]

Dunn is overvalued.

He's had his second straight year of decline. His defense has gotten so bad he can barely be considered a legitimate option at 1b. He's already making big money and he's not tied up long term.

Someone tells me how this makes sense. 1b is a good position to get production cheap from - whether it's guys like Scott Hatteberg on the free agent market, or guys in trade like Lyle Overbay, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Shealy, etc.

People are acting like Dunn is the NL's version of Giambi but he really isn't. The low batting average *does* hurt. He slugged in the 400s because of it. His overall OPS was .855 which was a tremendous drop. Why trade for Dunn when you could trade for Morgan Ensberg?

[davemac]

"Why trade for Dunn..."

Because you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of 26 year old players with 198 homers, .380obp and .893ops. Why not toss in three 40 homer seasons. I mean c'mon! Most 26 year old players are just trying to stick with the big club. And Morgan Ensberg?? There's a consistent option...

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Dunn in the Red Sox line-up would probably reduce his K's with the number of quality strikes he'd see getting up after Ortiz and ManHole. Could be filthy. Sox fans and sports writers would also understand his abilites and never undervalue him as 2004 and Kevin Millar but mainly Mark bellhorn showed, the nation realizes just how ridiculously valuble an OBP man, albeit with a low batting average, but pop in his bat can be. Dunn at 1st, Youk back to third.

Now as for what will be sent to the Reds? Hansen isn't going anywhere, neither is Delcarmen. Thats our 8th and 9th inningmen right there, they aren't going ANYWHERE. Whether they are in this roll next year or a year from now, thats how thats coming down.

Either send Lowell to the reds, or flip him for something else, then couple him with Edgar Martinez another bullpen arm that the sox are high on, but isn't as close to ready as Hansen and Delcarmen. The Sox like Martinez so much that he was one of the guys they told Florida they couldnt get in the Beckett deal. If they gave up Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and 2 more power arms, but kept this kid he's going to be something. He's a converted catcher that repeatedly nails 96-97. While the Reds don't need another C, and the sox are going to need someone to replace Mirabelli, and spell Varitek, why not flip Kotteras to them as well. Then the Reds can move Larue or Valentin for something they need.

Youk
Pedroia
Ortiz
Manny
Dunn

Poor poor opposing pitchers....they'll never make it outta the 5th.

[RotoAuthority]

Every hitter you named there will have average production for a 1B at best. Dunn slugged .490 this year after topping .540 the past two seasons. The batting average is not a problem.

Not being tied up long term is a good thing.

[Kyle]

Any team would be lucky to get Dunn. He will help greatly. If you can get him cheap all the better. Id love to see the Yanks offer something like Farnsworth and Melky for him, we dont need him but I would find room.

As for Hansen, he will not be a good pitcher until he fixes his mechanics. Right now his delivery is way too unrepeatable for him to get his control working. When he gets his mechanics fixed then he can be a good reliever, but until then he isnt a good option. I would not be opposed to trading him for Dunn.

[Kramerica Industries]

"Now as for what will be sent to the Reds? Hansen isn't going anywhere, neither is Delcarmen. Thats our 8th and 9th inningmen right there, they aren't going ANYWHERE. Whether they are in this roll next year or a year from now, thats how thats coming down"

Hey to get value in most cases we need to give up value alot teams will have interest we would have to give up Hansen as it show the Red Sox are willing to trade they have offered him in a deal for Andrew Jones and Roy Oswalt back in July

[Jerry]

Wow,

There are a lot of really stupid trade ideas being posted here:

Farnsworth and Melky Cabrera?

Edgar Martinez and George Kotteras?

Come on. If you were running the Reds, would you make that trade?

The only idea I have heard here that isn't idiotic is the Astros for Pense and Albers. That is at least a start.

I am a Mariners fan, and I would love to see the M's get Dunn for a couple of scrubs. But that just isn't going to happen. Dunn is a star.

The M's might be able to offer a package including Rafael Soriano (a proven ML power releiver who can close right now), Jeff Clement, and a guy like Ryan Feierabend (a LHP prospect who could pitch at the big league level in 2007).

That is a lot to give up, and I am not sure that the M's would be wise doing something like that for a player who could be a one-year rental. I would want to make sure that Dunn would sign an extension, or at least be open to one.

[Kramerica Industries]

Jerry my sentiment is the same with the trades that have been proposed by some

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Adam Dunn: signed 2-year deal worth 18.5M thru 2007 season on 2/13/06- + he receives salaries of 7.5M in 2006 and 10.5M in 2007- + the deal includes a Team Option for 2008 worth 13M or a 500K buyout- + the option is eliminated if he is traded- + he receives a 500K assignment bonus if traded- + the value of the option could rise to 16M with award-based escalators- + if the option is exercised, he receives a complete a no-trade clause in 2008

The reason a deal like Edgar Martinez and George Kotteras plus, isn't stupid is as of right now its one year of Adam Dunn.

I think Melky could blossom in Cincy, he did a good job this year in NY but there is the worry that he might never be more than a 4th outfield. With the Reds and the proper coaching, I think he could be a hell of a player. Farnsworth on the other hand is a waste of 100mph fastball.

[ghosthorn]

I was excited to think about Dunn being a Brewer, and on the surface, he doesn't fit, because he'd have to play LF, and that doesn't seem like a good idea. but the amazing thing is that in 2004 and 2005, despite playing a horrible, horrible LF, he still posted 6+ wins in both seasons according to WARP3, and that says something about his offense. He'd be an 8-win player at 1B or DH. But even if a team sticks him in LF, he'd be an improvement for most of them. I know he would be for the Brewers. We could deal a package of young SP for him.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Dunn is what he is and is what he will always be:
A)240-375 with 40 HR 90 RBI
B)A guy who gets by on natural talent and seems pretty unmotivated.
C)A guy who doesn't improve from year to year, but might actually get worse... BA and fielding come to mind.
D) The walks would be nice if they came with Bonds/Sheffield/Pujols like K-rates/ BA... but they don't.

[JayTheRed]

Well Me being a Reds fan who watched Dunn develope through the minors I would be kinda sad to see him go, but on the other hand I do know a few things for sure about any trade since I read about every statement that is recorded in the newpapers, radio or on tv about this team. Dunn is going to require one of the following things in any deal.
1. Proven starting pitching unless the Reds decide to go after a free agent starter this winter.
Option 2. A person who is ready to close games.

These are the Reds number 1 and 2 things they need other than a shortstop or second base player depending on where they play Phillips next season or who they can get. I have to agree that Cincy would be not be considering most of these offers. I did like the Marniners offer that was mentioned though. Other than the Austin Kearns / Felipe Lopez trade, Krivsky has been a genius in all of his other trades. Who knows on Majeski or Bray too they may still pan out. So overall I hope the Reds Keep Dunn but if they do trade him they better at least get a starter near or above Harrang / Arroyo's level or a pitcher who is ready to be a closer or already is a closer for a team.

[DRWheelock]

Mariner's fan here, and I will say that Jeff Clement is pretty much untouchable!

Last offseason I was pushing for the M's to NOT resign Guardado, BUT INSTEAD run with either Putz or Soriano as our 2006 closer. Cincy fans found out why I wanted to NOT resign Guardado!

And now look at what Putz has done for the M's since Guardado lost his Closer status!

Soriano is just as awesome as Putz, and can easily step in the closer role if called on!

I've wanted Dunn in a Mariner's uniform for the past 3 years. The only problem is that we have the RHB version of Dunn in Sexson with tons of K's!!!

I still would want his 40+ HR power, and Seattle is desperate for 1 more power LHB.

Soriano is still under club control for years to come, and I don't think he's arby eligible anytime soon either.

The M's bullpen & defense are their strong suits. They just need 2 TOR starters, and one more power LHB.

I would do a Dunn for Soriano trade straight up though. I would even include some other major league ready prospects...BUT NOT JEFF CLEMENT!

I would assume that Cincy would need more than Soriano though, unless the Cincy brass are pretty serious about liquidating K hitters and even willing to sacrifice HRs in order to remove SOs from their lineup.

Since Bavasi & Hargrove are currently on the hotseat for 2007, I'm predicting the M's FINALLY stepup and sign the following players:

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka (yes even over the Yankees)
3. One Power 30-40+ HR LHB Somewhere.

This Mariner lineup would look pretty intriguing for a M's fan:

CF Ichiro
3B Beltre
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
OF Dunn (Possible DH)
C Johjima
DH/1B Broussard/Perez (Platoon)
2B Jose Lopez
SS Betancourt

With this 2007 Rotation:

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. King Felix
4. Washburn
5. Meche/Baek/Wood (And maybe a possible Pavano deal with the Yanks?!)

[DentalPlan]

[[Because you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of 26 year old players with 198 homers, .380obp and .893ops. Why not toss in three 40 homer seasons. I mean c'mon! Most 26 year old players are just trying to stick with the big club. And Morgan Ensberg?? There's a consistent option...]]

Who cares when 1b is an easy place to fill your production needs? I'll keep the young pitching. Trading an arm and a leg for for any 1b outside of Pujols or Howard is stupid, period. It's too to fill the production in other ways.

These arguments sound like the arguments people made for the Richie Sexson trade. Not smart. 1b production is too easy to come by. Repeat that over and over again. That's the #1 point of this post.

[[Morgan Ensberg?? There's a consistent option...]]

Cheaper, you give up less, and he actually had about the same fall-off this season Dunn has, and he plays a more useful position. I'll take it.

I agree, these people making up these trades for Dunn their X-Box would reject are stupid. And the guy who said Dunn was going to magically get better in the Red Sox lineup... yeah, people said that about Crisp, Pena, Lowell, and everyone too. NOT HAPPENIN'.

[[Every hitter you named there will have average production for a 1B at best.]]

Yeah. Adrian Gonzalez had a higher OPS+, EQA, whatever adjusted number you want, than Dunn. Tell me how that's less again, especially considering salaries and what you give up? Lyle Overbay, a higher OPS+. Scott Hatteberg, lower, but not by a ton. You can't compare Dunn to these other guys without taking into account SALARY and WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO OBTAIN THEM. Understand? I'll put it to you this way, Adrian Gonzalez at $350,000 and keeping top pitching prospects like say, Kevin Slowey and Scott Elbert, absolutely trumps Adam Dunn at $10+ million a year and having to give up those prospects. Without any question.

Lastly, that dude who thinks the Mariners are getting Jason Schmidt, Matsuzaka, and Adam Dunn all in this offseason needs to lay off the pipe.

[DentalPlan]

Most of the time, trading great young pitching for expensive first basemen is a losing proposition.

Adam Dunn's low batting average has cut considerably into his SLG and his OBP. Freddy Sanchez had a higher OBP and took way fewer walks, there's no argument his low BA cut into his OBP. Josh Willingham slugged better than Dunn.

Pat Burrell walks a lot. You could obtain him for *nothing* instead of giving up a lot for Dunn. You can't pretend Dunn's low BA doesn't matter when guys who walk less are getting on base more and guys who are hitting fewer homers have a higher SLG.

[RotoAuthority]

Right. And all of those guys had career years while Dunn had a down year. And they didn't come cheaply. Gonzalez included Chris Young, Overbay Dave Bush.

You are dwelling on an off year and making a ton of erroneous assumptions.

And the Twins would give up Slowey in a heartbeat for Dunn, salary and all.

Why bring up Sanchez? He's not even in the stratosphere of Dunn. He has no power.

[Kyle]

Dunn will always be what he is and that is one of the best left handed power sources in baseball. Here is a comparison, Dunn had 19 less XBH than Ryan Howard while striking out 13 more times and walking 4 more. Those two guys are the same age. Would you not trade a good prospect for Ryan Howard? Dunn is also the same age as Albert Pujols. If you trade for Dunn you are getting a man with light tower power and a very good walk rate who is in his prime.

The reason why people keep putting out these low ball offers is because it seems like the Reds want to get rid of him. The Reds dont know what they have in Dunn it seems so teams are going to try and buy low. Dunn is more valuable than any of the free agent sluggers this offseason.

[Kyle]

Dunn will always be what he is and that is one of the best left handed power sources in baseball. Here is a comparison, Dunn had 19 less XBH than Ryan Howard while striking out 13 more times and walking 4 more. Those two guys are the same age. Would you not trade a good prospect for Ryan Howard? Dunn is also the same age as Albert Pujols. If you trade for Dunn you are getting a man with light tower power and a very good walk rate who is in his prime.

The reason why people keep putting out these low ball offers is because it seems like the Reds want to get rid of him. The Reds dont know what they have in Dunn it seems so teams are going to try and buy low. Dunn is more valuable than any of the free agent sluggers this offseason.

[Baseballfan79]

How about to the LAD for a deal around billingsley and another prospect? They are losing Nomar and the Reds need young pitching.

Billingsley + Bailey + arroyo is a nice solid 3some for the future. Dunn should get a top area pitching spec and another prospect.

The Dodgers get a big slugging bat too.

[A2000]

The Braves still need a LF and we need a speedy second baseman if we get Dunn over Crawford

[DentalPlan]

[[Right. And all of those guys had career years while Dunn had a down year.]]

Two straight years of decline.

[[nd they didn't come cheaply. Gonzalez included Chris Young, Overbay Dave Bush.]]

Get your facts straight. Gonzalez came *with* Chris Young. Dave Bush is not a huge price considering what Dunn would fetch.

[[You are dwelling on an off year and making a ton of erroneous assumptions.]]

You call them erroneous assumptions, but you don't elaborate on it, so I don't take that claim seriously.

[[And the Twins would give up Slowey in a heartbeat for Dunn, salary and all.]]

I doubt it.

[[Why bring up Sanchez? He's not even in the stratosphere of Dunn. He has no power.]]

I brought up Sanchez because even with all of Dunn's orgasm-inducing walks he still had a lower OBP than Sanchez. There are consequences to a low batting average no one cares to acknowledge.

[[Dunn is also the same age as Albert Pujols. If you trade for Dunn you are getting a man with light tower power and a very good walk rate who is in his prime.]]

Dunn is also EXPENSIVE. What part of that don't people understand? Trading great, cheap pitching for expensive first basemen who aren't 1.000+ OPS guys is STUPID. Period, end of discussion. Richie Sexson trade.

What do I careabout "light tower power?" That's a cheesy phrase that has to be ditched anyway. I care about the OPS. I didn't think this was the kind of blog where people go on about home runs and ignore OPS. Gee, let's have a love-in for Pedro Feliz and Tony Batista while we're at it. If you hit 40 home runs with an .850ish OPS you're a terribly flawed player, and as a 1b he has no other redeeming value. And he's expensive.

And you're ignoring the point. Why give up young great pitching and money when there are better options available where you keep your pitching? That's what people are ignoring. I've already said it like twice, if the choice is Carlos Lee and keeping my Grade A+ pitching prospects vs. Adam Dunn and no Grade A+ pitching prospects, I'll take Carlos Lee every time. Because pitching is *that* important.

Look at where Dunn has landed this season. It looks like what you'd get out of a full season of Russell Branyan.

[[The Reds dont know what they have in Dunn it seems so teams are going to try and buy low. Dunn is more valuable than any of the free agent sluggers this offseason.]]

I don't think the Reds are these knuckle-dragging "walks clog the bases" fools like the Cubs. There is no indication they are selling him on the cheap just because Krivsky looks stupid. Furthermore, Dunn may be a better hitter than the free agent pitchers, but none of them require you to give up a great pitching prospect and more AND the salary.

I think I've emphasized the foolishness of trading cheap young pitching talent for an expensive 1st baseman instead of just buying an expensive free agent hitter, but nobody seems able to deal with that argument. No one also acknowledges you can get 1st base production cheap if you look well enough. Trading cheap pitching talent for Vernon Wells? Sure, I could buy into that. Not too many home run slugging legitimate Gold Glove (not Hunter) CFs out there. Dunn? There's a plethora of $10+ million grip-and-rip 1st basemen, too many to justify giving up prime pitching talent.

[Not Joe Morgan]

DentalPlan, I'd love to take a gentleman's OBP bet of Sanchez versus Dunn for 2007. I'd venture a guess that his 2nd in the NL BABIP (.370) will not be holding up and he doesn't supplement his OBP at all with walks.

[Darin]

Adam Dunn is highly over-rated. He can hit monster homeruns and walks alot, but he doesn't drive in runs, doesn't hit doubles, doesn't field, doesn't steal bases. He's basically a one tool player.

There's a dozen or so better sluggers in the NL, and he was 20th this season in the NL in Runs Created.

When you have a guy that doesn't drive in 100 runs and is 27th in the NL in slugging, who can't field his position, you can't really call him a marquee player who would require top notch pitching talent to be available in a trade....especially with his salary.

I really don't think the Reds are trying to move him because they don't know what they have....they are moving him because the DO know what they have. A highly replaceable player who makes way too much money to not drive in runs. Just like Pat Burrell (who actually had a better season than Dunn and was benched on occasions).

[Not Joe Morgan]

Dunn had a .924 OPS with RISP so I'm not sure how you can pin not driving runs in on his shoulders. Also, he was 14th in baseball in PAs but 23rd in PAs with RISP. Both of those point to issues with the hitters around Dunn, not Dunn himself.
And Burrell did throw up a better statline than Dunn in 2006 but Dunn remains more valuable because of his superior raw power, his age (3 years younger) and Burrell's nagging foot problems.

[Darin]

NJM:

I'm sure you won't be reading this, but I wanted to add that Dunn's .221 average with RISP is the reason he doesn't drive in runs.

Also I don't doubt that health has down graded Burrell's worth, but if someone was going to make a trade, Burrell would cost less in prospects than Dunn would. And making a trade is the only way a team can get either player right now.