Marlins Looking For A Center Fielder

I'm still amazed at how good the Marlins were in 2006 and how bright their future looks.  I'd like to see other teams try the "blow it all up" approach, because the Fish are a cool team.

Latest word from Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post is that the Marlins will look externally to fill their center field hole.  The combination of Reggie Abercrombie, Alfredo Amezaga, Cody Ross, and Eric Reed simply did not work in 2006.

Capozzi names Chris Duffy, Willy Taveras, and Matt Kemp as targets according to his sources.  He adds Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes as other possibilities.

My guy would be Dukes.  He has speed, range, and a great arm.  He got on base over 40% of the time at Triple A this year.  He showed 20 HR potential too.  What's not to like?

Oh, yeah.  Five suspensions this year alone and problems with half the team, coaching staff included.  Clearly Dukes needs a fresh start, and he could be a steal if Fredi Gonzalez could calm him down.

All of these options have their flaws: Duffy will be 27 next year, Taveras hits like Juan Pierre, Kemp's defense is in question, and Baldelli won't come cheap.

Comments

[georgek]

how about a package deal sending >CF< (R and L Fielder for the mets) LASTINGS MILLEDGE for, say, dontrelle willis?
maybe something like milledge, aaron heilman (who from what i read on this site might be moved), and alay soler (cuban born+miami+no pressure+#2 POTENTIAL=a winner!!)

or maybe as a mets fan i'm just dreaming.

[was385]

Right now, Milledge's stock is way down so they would not take this, especially since he will not produce for a year or two at least. He has not shown anything that would make someone want to start him in the majors. His additude, plate approach, defense, base running, and overall offense did not even look like he should be a top prospect. My opinion is that this guy is a bust. There are always a few, just look at the baseball america top prospect list from like 2001 and see all the names you have never heard of.

[was385]

Right now, Milledge's stock is way down so they would not take this, especially since he will not produce for a year or two at least. He has not shown anything that would make someone want to start him in the majors. His additude, plate approach, defense, base running, and overall offense did not even look like he should be a top prospect. My opinion is that this guy is a bust. There are always a few, just look at the baseball america top prospect list from like 2001 and see all the names you have never heard of.

[was385]

Right now, Milledge's stock is way down so they would not take this, especially since he will not produce for a year or two at least. He has not shown anything that would make someone want to start him in the majors. His additude, plate approach, defense, base running, and overall offense did not even look like he should be a top prospect. My opinion is that this guy is a bust. There are always a few, just look at the baseball america top prospect list from like 2001 and see all the names you have never heard of.

[Kyle]

I think you are still being a little overcritical of Lastings. He is still a young player with crazy tools. He didnt even have that bad of a year. He was a 21 year old playing people much older in AAA and he put up an OPS of .828. Thats nothing to laugh at, he was called up to NY and just wasnt ready. He did show flashes of why he is a top prospect. He should be their right fielder or left fielder of the future. Right now I would take him over either Shawn Green or Cliff Floyd.

[was385]

right now I would not take him over shawn green. That is just a dumb thing to say or floyd if he is healthy

[wihargo]

I wonder, has anyone heard what Texas plans to do about their CF situation?
If they can't get Matthews Jr back, that is.

[Kyle]

You wouldnt take Milledge over Green??? Just for comparison Milledge posted a .1 WARP1 and Green posted a .3. So your gonna take a 33 year old who generates all his value with his bat versus a toolsy 21 year old who gives you value with the bat, glove and on the bases

[wihargo]

oh yeah, and compare Delmon Young's numbers to Milledges from the IL this year. I don't think Milledges stock is as low as everyone thinks. If it takes 2 more years for him to get to the majors and contribute, great. He is not a lost cause yet, by any means.

[was385]

Speed is not defense, his defensive instincts are horrible. As for on the basepaths, 1 SB and 2CS, WOW! Right now, if I want to win a championship, I take Green

[1908]

Elijah Dukes is a cancer. There is no way a team like the Marlins should take on that volatile personality.

I could see a Willis trade for Escobar and Pelfry. Escobar has talent, whether he fulfills it is debatable, but I think he fits in well with that team. The NY media is going to be clammoring for a supposed #1, and the mets will need to pay up if they want one like Willis.

[was385]

Compare Young who was suspended for FIFTY GAMES? Good comparison. Lets see, Young hit 40 points higher (75 in the majors), hit one more HR, more 2Bs, better SLG, and for all of Milledge's speed, he was 13/23 in SBs while Young was 22/26. Yes, Milledge is a bust

[Kramerica Industries]

I heard David Murphy for Dennis Tankersly in July

[desturbd1]

I'm assuming you meant Taylor Tankersley, since Dennis plays for the Cards.

That'd be a great deal for Boston...which is why I don't see it happening. Murphy clearly doesn't factor into their plans for the future, and Tankersley would be yet another young arm that could produce now, and for years to come. Murphy could well become a solid OF, though I've never heard anyone talk of him as better then a good 4th. If I'm Florida, I don't make that deal.

[Kramerica Industries]

Yes i did mean Taylor brain cramp i guess but about Murphy it seems that everyone has a different oppion of him some scouts thinks he is a 4th outfilder some dont. But i have to say when i saw him play for the sdox in September i was impressed

[georgek]

i hate when people say milledge is a bust..guess what people: he's 21 years old! we're getting a little too greedy wanting our prospects to be ready too early..not every prospect is major league ready at 22 like reyes and wright..they're just special players. milledge is by no means finished..he's coveted by many teams. he reminds me of a young reyes at 21 with people saying "UGH NO PLATE DISCIPLINE, too many errors, strikes out too much" dont tell me you didnt think this when u saw reyes first play here. we all knew he'd be great, but you had that little voice in the back of your mind saying he wasnt ready. milledge will be great, mark my words..which is exactly why we should trade him for pitching. outfielders are the easiest position players to replace, and i'm comfortable with carlos gomez and fernando martinez as my future outfield.

[desturbd1]

Yeah, I suppose he looks solid...I'm just not sure the Fish can't find a better deal elsewhere. And he's a bigger question mark then many of the other options.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Roto, I'm with you on Dukes' game... but he'd be an awful fit in Florida. That's the least mature clubhouse in the bigs, with a bad ownership/coaching situation, and too close to his previous problems. He needs to go somewhere where that crap won't be tolerated. We've already seen Cabrera walk all over that team... I doubt Dukes would turn it around playing in Miami with a bunch of kids. Send him to Milwaukee or Seattle or somewhere like that, but he'd never turn it around in south Florida.

[georgek]

yea the only draw-back is that milledge has got an attitude that he needs to fix up...if only girardi was still there to straighten him out :/

[Kyle]

Here are some comparisons for you. Delmon Young has played parts of two years at AAA his 19 and 20 year old seasons and he posted lines of .285/.303/.447 and .316/.341/.474. This year was Milledges first at AAA where he posted a line of .277/.388/.440. Yes Milledge was older than Young when he posted his numbers but he is already showing better plate discipline and about equal power. Stealing bases is something you learn how to do, you cant learn speed. Luckily Milledge will get to play with one of the best base stealers in the game in Jose Reyes.

As for Reyes, his first time in AAA as a 20 year old he posted a measley .689 OPS and his first year in the pro's he was at .644 since then his OPS has risen each year. I dont expect Milledge to be the next Ken Griffey Jr. He could though be a more atheletic Gary Sheffield minus some power, or maybe a Vernon Wells type. You can teach a man how to run a route in the outfield you can teach him when to steal. You cant teach things like speed, arm strength, and plate discipline all things Milledge has excelled in.

Milledge would be a great outfielder for the Marlins, an outfield of him Willingham, and Hermida would be awesome. He would be a great fit for the marlins.

As with Elijah Dukes someone is going to look real smart or real dumb if they take a gamble on him. He has awesome tools and is a very good player, but he actually talked about walking away from the game this season. I dont know why he has such issues but if someone could iron those out you could have a great player. He doesnt have to be an angel he just has to behave (look at Milton Bradley and Sheffield neither are angels)

[georgek]

what are the numbers in between the slashes.. batting average/on base %/slugging %?

[wihargo]

while young was suspended FIFTY GAMES both he and milledge appeared in a fairly similar number of games in the IL (86 for Young, 84 for Milledge). Both men are 21, they are both right handed hitting outfielders who were drafted in the 1st round in 2003. Seems similar enough to have a fair comparison. In the IL Young had 21 more singles, Milledge had 28 more walks. then again, Milledge had a higher OPS (828 to 814). young had 1 more double and 1 more home run. they both had 4 triples.
So compared to young's IL season, milledge didn't do that poorly. Yeah, young might have done better had he not gotten suspended. Milledge might have done better if he was left in AAA the entire year. Anyway, I'm not saying that Milledge is Delmon Young, or that he will be as good as young might be. Just that you shouldn't write the guy off yet since his first call-up wasn't incredible.

[quintjs]

With all this talk about Milledge, Should the Marlins even trade D-Train? With the National League in its current state, the Marlins have a reasonable chance to make the World Series. Keep D-train, Miggy add a couple of players, Spend 20-25million, and make it to the World Series, possibly win it.

[DH]

What's amazing right now is the flexibility the Marlins have created after last years fire sale. Evidently they've got a few holes but with the stock of young pitching they have, their ability to acquire a CF, and perhaps upgrade at 1b and behind the plate is second to none.

Looking around the league who is else is middling about mediocrity and could use a good fire sale? Seattle, Baltimore, Atlanta, ...?

[Baseballfan79]

I have said this many times Milledge isnt enough to get willis it would add Pelfrey as well to start with. Even then I just dont see it. The marlins can get something better.

Now TB needs a 1B and a Lefty bat in their lineup. They need pitching. Something like Mike Jacobs + Ricky Nolasco should be able to get their attention. Ricky has good potential as a number 2-4 pitcher range in the majors. He is young and cheap and already tested somewhat. Mike Jacobs has the potential for a bit power hitting lefty 1st baseman. This would let the marlins move Willingham to 1B (played in minors some) and get his defense out of LF. They could then add a LF easily with a solid signing like Guillen or another or just let Ross go over there.

A lineup of the following:

1 Hanley SS
2 Uggla 2B
3 Cabrera 3B
4 Willingham 1B
5 Baldelli CF
6 Hermida RF
7 Olvio C
8 TBD ( Ilike sheff for 2 years if he is let free) LF
9 Pitcher

Rotation
1 Willis
2 Johnson
3 Olsen
4 Sanchez
5 Pettit/Pinto/Garcia/ etc etc etc

Tankersly will be a nice closer for next year if we do a 1 year rebuilding project as normal.

Dukes I would love down here also because it is a buy low option where he could become a stud in the future. Taveras I hate that option his OBP and OPS together are horrible.
Duffy is interesting but a little older.

As for the leadership in the clubhouse dont confuse youth for poor leadership. Cabrera and Willis have won it all and know what it takes to do it. They have a good group of coaches as well.

I would love Baldelli, he is my personal hope for the marlins. They get him and they have a good shot at that WC next year and if the breaks go right they could challenge the mets.

[Paul AKA twinsfan]

If you're going to Blow it up and start all over you need 2 things some good talent on your team already and A farm system that is already pretty good with a couple of guys near the majors thier arn't many teams like this. Texas is a team that could do it but they think that they will win next year.

[georgek]

gary sheffield? are you serious? remember, not many people want to sign with the marlins...and anyway, why would you have sheff batting 8th? he'd be outraged.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Taveras is maligned, but his defense improved tremendously this year. I don't know any defensive statistics but watching him play, he was so much better than last year, and I believe last year he was highly rated on one of those metrics (Fielding Bible?). Centerfielders are notoriously slow developers offensively, and it's hard to believe that a guy with that much athletic ability won't put it all together at some point.

How bad was Jose Reyes last year... how good was he this year? 686 OPS in 2005. 841 in 2006.

Taveras came in at 671 in 2006. His infield hits from 2005 turned into sharply struck singles and his singles turned into doubles. In that monstrous CF in MMP, the Astros need all the range they can get, and he's got plenty. Taveras skipped AAA, so this was his second season above AA. This was Reyes 4th season in the bigs. I think Willy's done well, all things considered. His walks and extra base hits increased despite 70 less PA and he had only one less SB. He made tremendous progress in the field, and decent progress at the plate. He'll improve again next year. The Astros shouldn't trade him unless we're talking a package for a bigtime CF (Baldelli, Wells) or pitcher (Willis).

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Taveras was 5th in RF and 7th in ZR among all CF. I'll take that out of a 24 yr. old in his second year above AA... he's not a good leadoff man... yet... but he's under club control for a long time and works cheap. He hasn't been worn down by injuries like so many guys at that position. Unless there's a team with a particular desire for his talents, he seems a lot more valuable to the Astros than he would get in the open market.

Not that it really matters, but he's best friends with Luke Scott. Willy started playing a heckuva lot better when Scott got called up... why break up a good thing. They weren't highly touted prospects or as toolsy as most would like, but they're exactly the type of player that winning teams are stocked with. Young, durable, hard-working and CHEAP. Check out Luke Scott's track record as a professional baseball player... with the exception of his 90 big league ABs in 2005, he has mashed at all levels. After his recent work in Houston and his AAA 2005-2006 dominance, I'm convinced that he's a big time player who fell through the cracks because of his age and injuries at the lower levels. Neither of these guys gets moved.

[Kyle]

The problem with Taveras isnt entirely Taveras its the Astros as a whole. A good team can carry one Taveras, a guy who contributes most of his value with the glove. The Astros however have three of them in Taveras, Ausmus, and Everett. They have been struggling offensively as a team and that is why. They need to replace one of them with a better bat in the offseason and Taveras seems like the best option.

I have no problem with Taveras he posted a very respectable WARP of 4.5 this year in his second full year, thats a higher number than Reyes did in 2005. The problem is that that WARP value was made up of more than 80% fielding runs. He is a butcher with the bat.

Between Ausmus (-9), Everett (-5), and Taveras (7) they have three players who combined arent even league average with the bat.

Defense up the middle is good but you need some offense. Good hitting catchers and shortstops are a little harder to come by so centerfield is probably the easiest area to get better.

[Jerry]

Here is an idea:

The Mariners don't have a spot for Jeremy Reed to play anymore, with Ichiro taking over in CF.

I am a big M's fan, and I love Reed. He is an elite defensive player, and he still has a lot of offensive potential. He has had wrist injuries the past two years, and his stats look horrible. But watching him play, he has talent. His minor league track record is excellent.

I think he needs one more year to turn things around. He could end up like Alex Rios, and really turn things around in his third ML season.

Reed would be a good CFer and possible leadoff hitter for the Marlins, who have plenty of experience milking talent out of young players.

Since Reed is SOL in Seattle, it would probably only cost a moderately interesting pitching prospect, which the Marlins seem to have a glut of.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Kyle, I understand that... but it seems illogical to replace the youngest and most promising of that Ausmus, Everett, Taveras bunch.

I think this team can and needs to support Everett and Taveras. Their roles are crucial, especially with a staff that's looking like Oswalt, Hirsh, and 3 other guys. Taveras improved at the plate this year, the same cannot be said of Everett or Ausmus.

[Baseballfan79]

I have little interest in seeing Taveras come to the marlins. Him and his .669 Career OPS can stay in houston.

As for Sheffield, he could be a likely target for the marlins because he was here because and described that as his "best times in the majors". Heck it is debatable that he might go into the hall as a fish (longest tenure for him). I wouldnt put him 8th if he was the signee but just an example there.

I would love to Jeremy Reed here on the other hand. He has a better career OPS then taveras does. He had a down year but his defense is wonderful, and his bat could come back in time. I see him as a mark kotsay type of player which would be a great upgrade. Specially for the price since you guys have Jones and Ichiro and others out there in the OF.

As for signee's the marlins dont often have problems signing folks. We almost every year of the past 5 years came away with a moderate to big signee to surprise folks. Even with the current situation, I would never be surprised if we did one again.

But for CF I think Reed would be a solid option for the right price. But I will hope for dukes.

[PhillyRocks]

How about Bourn and Gio Gonzalez for Willis.

[PhillyRocks]

Or this

Bourn, Gonzalez, Nunez, Madson, and minor leaguers the Phils got from Abreu trade for

Willis and Cabrerra

[Baseballfan79]

No way to either of those trades. We would be insane to take either of them.

Willis isnt even on the trade block and hasnt been at all according to the marlins. And Cabrera wwouldnt be traded at all.

If the fish can get even a middle of the road centerfielder from FA or some of our minor league prospects and sign 1-2 solid (not even great just solid) middle relievers they have to be one of the favorites for the WC next year. Specially considering that they had the 6th best ERA in the majors for starters and their staff is all 24 and under.

[nickk11]

how about milledge, heilman, and matt lindstrom (who throws 100mph) for willis. heilman could start for the marlins and in my opinion will be a solid #3 starter for any team and lindstrom would add a live arm to their lackluster bullpen

[Baseballfan79]

No thank you. I dont see lindstrom as having any value to the marlins really at all. Heilman isnt a number 3 starter, it isnt even sure he could be a starter and Milledge is worth less then he was last year.

The point of the marlins getting a CF isnt to trade away our CY young caliber lefty ace. But to add one of the final pieces to make a run at the mets.

Willis wont be going to the mets unless they hugely overpay (pelfrey+ Milledge+). Heilman wouldnt fit as our closer or even be a top 4 in our rotation normally.

[TheRealErik]

Okay, allow a non-biased Met fan take a crack at some of these claims.

'No thank you. I dont see lindstrom as having any value to the marlins really at all.'

At best, he's a throw-in for a small deal. Not a prospect.

'Heilman isnt a number 3 starter, it isnt even sure he could be a starter and Milledge is worth less then he was last year.'

Nobody knows if he is or not. Sure, you can surmise based on Heilman's history and what starting does to ERA's of relievers, but neither you nor I can say anything definitive with respect to his potential.

I'm not a big Milledge fan, but he still has significant value to a team like the Mets. He's gonna put up an 800 OPS very soon. As a CF for the Marlins, his value would be optimised.

'The point of the marlins getting a CF isnt to trade away our CY young caliber lefty ace. But to add one of the final pieces to make a run at the mets.'

I don't think Willis is a true talent Cy Young caliber pitcher. His 2005 looks like a fluke. He's a good young pitcher, but not the ace everyone claims he is. A nice #2/#3 who is about to become expensive isn't worth two of the top four prospects in the Mets system. It's not a trade I would make, but i'm sure other teams would. Good for them.

The Mets can just sign a Zito-Matsuzaka-Schmidt type. Trading away young talent should only be done in the right circumstances. I don't think this is one of those.

'Willis wont be going to the mets unless they hugely overpay (pelfrey+ Milledge+). Heilman wouldnt fit as our closer or even be a top 4 in our rotation normally.'

Clearly, this isn't merely overpaying. Its tantamount to organizational suicide.

[Jerry]

Question for Marlins fans:

What the hell happened to Jason Vargas?

He was pretty good back in 2005, then just fell apart this year.

Is there some reason for his problems (injuries, etc) or did he just forget how to throw strikes?

[Baseballfan79]

He seemed to get off on the wrong food with problems with the techniques of Krantiz. I have read that he was tipping his pitches too much and all. Plus there was concerns over endurance. I think it was partly he was overused last year because they pitched him so much between college/minors and then pros.

Even though he still projects as a 3-4. I personally see him next year taking over a middle relief role with being a Lefty specialist. If nothing else he can get back on track some and improve his trade value to be moved off perhaps. Of course he does have a 300 Batting Average around, so we could turn him into a corner Outfielder if all else fails. He is still pretty young (23 next year), so he has time to figure it out again contribute in the bullpen.

I see very little chance of them making it into the starting rotation. Even if we end up moving off Nolasco or even willis (florida marlins mlb website again stated today he is most likely not gonna get dealt in their mailbag with fans). Even if we move a starter I think either Garcia, Pettit or Pinto are the quick fixes to move into the rotation.

so really I think he ends up trade bait if he can show something.

[Jerry]

Baseballfan,

How about Vargas and a lower-level pitching prospect (you guys seem to have about 6 dozen of these) for Jeremy Reed?

I'll page Bill Bavasi and get him cracking on it ASAP.

[Baseballfan79]

I would do it dude, pretty much a flip of 2 players that hit rough times that could bounce back and be much better.