Lennon: Matsuzaka Winning Bid Could Be Lower Than Expected

Newsday's David Lennon thinks the winning bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka will be closer to $11MM than the $20MM+ estimates that have been going around.

We may not know the reality for a while, but hopefully the winning team will be announced or leaked this evening.  I still can't see how none of the big market teams go up to $20MM, however.

Comments

[Thrillhouse26]

I know Philadelphia was never brought up with the Matsuzaka rumors, but I never understood why? Didn't Gillick spout off about focusing on pitching, YOUNG starting pitching. Seems like they should be at least in the discussion even if it's just a shot in the dark.

Myers Hamels Daisuke take your pick 1-3. Moyer and Lieber can't really kill you as a 4-5.

[Kramerica Industries]

I with you roto i hope it does get leaked tonight so we have an idea of what are teams will do this off season

[spieldogg]

I can't see it going that low. Both New York teams are putting starting pitching as a #1 area of improvement. Although both gm's are said to be trying to tighten the wallet. I don't see the bid going for less than 18 mil. Then him signing for around 5 years 35 mil.. This would make the total cost around 10.5 mil a year averaged out. That may seem low, but he really has no levergage once the bid is accepted. 35 million is a lot more than he'd get in Japan if he decides not to sign.

[dave]

Who has the information this evening?TheSeibu Lions? The commissioner's offices of the MLB and/or the NPB? The winning team? Where would the leak most likely come from?

[pinetarhand]

The Seibu Lions have the right to reject the bid offered. If the offer didn't top $11 mil, I could definitely see them rejecting it. He would probably be worth more than that to them.

[Teetz]

Maybe some collusion to not let overseas bidding get out of hand?

[Kramerica Industries]

and all bids are in.........

[Travis G.]

Bob Klapisch said the Yanks probably bid $20 mil.

[Soxfn24]

I find it pretty hard to believe that no one would bid that high. This looks to be another "don't believe it till you see it" kind of reports. Realistically, the highest bidder might not reach 20 mil, but it will probably be pretty close, with the winning bidder going to a New York team.

[JakeOD21]

pinetarhand, from what I have read, the Lions are going to accept whatever the highest bid is. Their team is close to going bankrupt and that's most of the reason why they have decided to put Matsuzaka up for bid now a full two years before he becomes a free agent. They're in a position where they can't afford to reject a bid we may percieve as being low.

[nrmax88]

spielldog who ever said anything about both ny gms trying to tighten the wallet. I never heard anything of the sort, in fact i havent heard minaya say anything like that, and all i heard about george was that steinbrenner may decide not to top the 20 million dollar range in bitting for matsuzaka. Thats hardly "tightening the wallet". In fact a couple of weeks ago omar minaya was asked if he would pursue a big name free agent like soriano and zito, and didnt get specific but did say that money would no be an issue in siging a player if it was to make the deam better.

[nrmax88]

sox i tend to agree, I honestly have no idea whether it wll be the yankees, sox, mets, or some other random team that was never even mentioned that will win the bid for matsuzaka

[pinetarhand]

Didn't know that Jake, thanks for the info. I don't think any of the other Japanese teams would like a bid that low either since it would lower the amount they would receive from their prospects.

[Omar052391]

Is the bidding process similar to soccer transfers?

[YankeeBaseball]

I don't see the winning bid coming in lower than 20mil and it wouldn't surprise me if it's significantly higher. Even with a 25mil bid and a 5yr/50mil contract, he'd cost less than zito (and he's younger too). Plus, the negotiation fee doesn't go against the salary cap and you don't lose a top draft pick by signing Matsuzaka. With the current sorry state of their pitching, it's a move the Yankees have to make and I believe they will . . .

[nrmax88]

What salary cap? Since when does baseball have a salary cap lol??
Yankeebaseball do u realize if there was a cap then the yankees couldnt have a 200,000,000$ plus roster. Also, mastuzakas contract will be way more then 5yr/50mil, probably more close to the 75mil ranger for 5 years. Lets remember Scott Boras is his agent

[Josh]

The Phils are trying to cut salary. Not add 90mill for an unproven SP. They're working on moving Pat B, and getting some bats (soriano) before they look at SP.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

Why do i have a feeling that Lennon is talking out of his arse here, even a rational consideration would easily see the big going over 20M, personally, i'd be shocked if the winning bid isn't at least very close to 30M.

As for the contract, i actually think this can play out in a multiple ways, i think it'll end up being a farily complicated contract with opt out clauses, options on both sides etc... both sides have certain leverages.

If i were to bet, i think it'll be a contract with relatively low default commitments. (say 5/50 or something less) but a opt out claus and/or raise claus /incentives .

[youalreadyknow]

well...
I'm not sure what to think about the posting fee, but I'd guess it comes in somewhere around $21-26mil.

As for the contract, this is Boras we're dealing with here.

It's probably going to take 3 weeks at minimum to come to terms with Matsuzaka and there are going to be serious incentives and clauses.

If he goes to one of the teams he has on his "short list", I'm pretty sure he'll demand a no-trade clause. He'll probably have tons of incentives for All-Star, games started, and Cy Young awards. You can also rest assured that there will be some kind of option year(s) which are likely to be mutual options. My guess is that since there is some sense of uncertainty with Matsuzaka that the contract will be somewhere in the range of 5yr/$60mil.

So let's say 5yr/$60mil with a mutual 6th year option worth $15mil ($2mil buyout), full no-trade clause, $10-12mil signing bonus paid over 5 years, and incentives galore.

07: $9m, 08: $10m, 09: $12m, 10: $14m, 11: $15m, 12(m): $15m ($2m buyout)

Of course... this is just a guess, I'm probably talking out of my rectum right now.

[Dave]

Damn ESPN is still calling it a 'gyroball.'

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"spielldog who ever said anything about both ny gms trying to tighten the wallet. I never heard anything of the sort, in fact i havent heard minaya say anything like that, and all i heard about george was that steinbrenner may decide not to top the 20 million dollar range in bitting for matsuzaka."

I'm making no claims on anything Met related, infact I believe Omar and the purse strings holder have said repeatedly that a big contract can be taken on to better the team. SNY money is pouring in now. However Brian Cashman, and "undisclosed" front office personnel have repeatedly hinted at, or flat out said, dropping payroll is a priority for the team. All this was before the report that came out a couple months ago that said the Yankees lost money last year...I'll try and find a link to the news report.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2557770

First thing I could find. Losing 50 to 80 million dollars, might stop you from paying 80-100 million for a pitcher that hasn't throw an MLB pitch.

[Dave]

That's just the team...broadcasting media/advertising syndication not inlcuded.

[youalreadyknow]

For the Yanks, the bid doesn't count towards payroll as far as I know. I don't see how that limits the Yankees from overpaying (which they likely will) for Matsuzaka.

As for the payroll, the following salaries are likely to be off the books:

Sheffield - $13mil
Wright - $7mil
Mussina - $17mil
Wilson - $3.5mil
Dotel - $2mil
Villone - $2mil
Sturtze - $1.5mil
Williams - $1.5mil
Cairo - $1mil

That's a total of $48.5mil off the books.

Salary increases:

A-Rod - $2mil
Jeter - $1mil
Giambi - $3mil
Abreu - $2mil
Posada - $3mil
Pavano - $2mil

Total of $13 million.

By my amateur estimation, that's $35 million to spend on Matsuzaka, re-signing Mussina, and filling out the bullpen and bench. If they magically deal Pavano, that's another $8-10mil freed up.

God I hate discussing the Yankees payroll... it sickens me to see that much money being thrown around like childs play while my favorite team has to nickel and dime.

[start_wearing_purple]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone else think it would be wildly hilarious if the Lions reject the bid because it's too low?

I'm kinda in agreement with you, youalreadyknow, unfortunately I'm not allowed to talk since my team has a payroll second to the yanks. But it would be nice if there was a forced salary cap... Just another reason why I secretly root for the royals in my spare time ;-)

[nrmax88]

arodsucks i didnt know that, but i am pretty sure the mets dont have any plans to cut spending, especially after falling one basehit short of the series. Youalreadyknow, i know weve disagreed in the past, but i really couldnt agree more with your 2 posts, i can see mats possibly making something a little bit closer to 70 then 60 of 5 years, but with loads of incentives and options on both sides, because even with his great past in japan, he is still such a big question mark when it comes down to playing in the states

[nrmax88]

anybody have an idea when we will find out who posted the winning bid?

[start_wearing_purple]

max, they the Lions have 4 days to accept or reject the bid. If they accept, then the team gets announced and the team gets to talk to Boras.