Vernon Wells: The Next $20 Million Man?

Already, speculation is starting that Blue Jays' center fielder Vernon Wells could be the next player to command $20MM annually.  Wells turns 28 later this month and will be a free agent after the 2007 season.

Wells's offensive production this year ranked third in baseball for his position, behind only Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran.  Bill James's panel of fielding experts ranked his glovework 8th among CFs.  J.P. Ricciardi seems willing to let Wells play out the string in his walk year rather than try to cash in.  The bidding war a year from now could involve the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Phillies, Astros, and Cubs.

For 2007, baseball has three players set to earn $20MM or more:  Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Jason Giambi.

With that, let the Winter Meetings begin!  No more puff pieces about Zito or the number 51.1111 or the 2000 meetings in Dallas...it's time for action.

Comments

[Rayman]

Thank the lord, i'm ready for some action.

[xfactor]

Maybe he can come to the northside, too...WE NEED MARK CUBAN! :D

[ArodSucksAtLife]

He'll be manning CF in Texas or Fenway.

[eeleye99]

One thing that is not in Wells numbers is his potential to steal bases. The Jays never really send him, but he could easily be a 35 stolen base threat. He had 21 homers in the first half last year, and was on pace for 42...but he cooled off and had 11 to finish the year. Maybe he has Beltran potential? Eitherway, he can do it all. And he's so young and a great leader...

[bsox21]

Wells will be the next $20 mil investment for the Rangers.

[bsox21]

eeleye,

The guys on this board dont know the value of asteal.

They all read Money ball and are all experts now.

Steals don't mean anything to them because they don't have some stat geek at baseball prospectus telling them how they impact the game.

Yes it's simple, but they don't even try to think for themselves.

[GoBoSox420]

I dont know if Theo and CO will really pursue Wells. We have ellsbury waiting and wells is going to be getting 6-7 years in addition to that 20 mil.

[bsox21]

I predict the Rangers and Giants (Roberts who?) battle for his services with the Rangers winning with a $136 million contract for 7 years.

[desturbd1]

"Steals don't mean anything to them because they don't have some stat geek at baseball prospectus telling them how they impact the game.

Yes it's simple, but they don't even try to think for themselves."

OK, Mr. Morgan. At least you have a good understanding of what you're trashing...Most "geeks" accept SB's as valuable in certain situations as long as the success rate is high enough; I think the cutoff is %75. Also, the Moneyball approach doesn't apply so much to specific situations, it simply says that it's a bad idea to build a team around bunt-and-steal types. Like your focus while building a squad shouldn't be to consciously plan to play Cubsian small-ball; SB's are fine in certain situations if the percentages favor running.

And yeah...I agree...Rangers look like they'd be the most likely to throw dumptrucks of money at him. Though hey, maybe he'll give 'em a hometown discount.

[desturbd1]

Actually %75 is low...I don't really remember the exact number anymore...

[GoBoSox420]

What else is out there as far as FA next year? a lot of money is coming off the books for the sox.

[StLknows]

He definitely deserves to get 20 mil a year. 2 Gary Matthews or 1 Vernon Wells? I don't want to get into details, just saying he's worth twice as much. I know he is already in the AL east, but once he gets into a big market city he is going to become a star. I am real interested to see what happens to him. I see the same thing that happened to Soriano. Jays keep him trying to sign a long term deal and he walks on em. This guy will be the corner stone of the next franchise he joins

[eeleye99]

Okay I know Wells situation as well as any fan because I've been following him for awhile. This is why he's 90% going to Texas.

1. His hometown is Texas, and his wife is pushing him to go there.
2. His bestfriend, who he wants to play with, is in Texas in 2008, and he'll likely stay there. (Michael Young, they became friends in the Jays system no less).
3. Texas both needs a CF, and is capable of blowing a load of cash, like on A-Rod.
4. Something about Texas not having taxes, so Wells would save an absurd amount, in the tens of milloins of dollars, if he signed in Texas.

All these are overwhelming factors that pretty much guarantee he signs in Texas.

However, you never know. The Jays said they try and sign him for no more then $15 million per year, if he'd accept. I don't think he'll be traded though.

[eeleye99]

However, I can see the market being less crazy next year, so 18 mil/year?

[desturbd1]

"What else is out there as far as FA next year? a lot of money is coming off the books for the sox."

Ready for this? A list of all the best FA's...note that they can still be signed to extensions, and that some may have options that I'm not aware of.

Ichiro, Abreu, Michael Barrett, Chris Carpenter, Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, David Eckstein, Marcus Giles, Carlos Guillen, Torii Hunter, Brandon Inge, Jeff Kent, Scott Linebrink, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Uribe, Vernon Wells, Jake Westbrook, Michael Young, Carlos Zambrano.

I know, I know...clearly Juan Uribe isn't in the same league as Ichiro. I just figured I'd write all the big(ish) names; I didn't even include some of the older players, guys like Posada. Point is...the 2007 FA class is as good as the 06 was bad.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Next year is going to be a ridiculous year for FA and because of that it will probably have a more reasonable contract enviremont.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

^^Andruw Jones

[GoBoSox420]

Damn, a lot of names out there. I'd love a Hunter signing, among others. I mean I'd love wells as well but Theo aint gonna give him 7/136+

[gatling]

2008 club options for above mentioned players:

Abreu $16 million
Carpenter $8 million
Dunn $13 million(voided if traded)
I-Rod $13 million
Kent $9 million
Uribe $5 million
Young $4 million

A-Rod can opt out of his current deal if at the end of 2007 if he wants. While he won't get more than the $27 million a year he's due in 2008-2010, he might opt to sign somewhere he'd rather be for a long term deal averaging $20+ million a year. It's not likely, but it is possible.

[desturbd1]

Yeah, like I said, I was just looking quickly through the list. :)

[ejruiz777]

That's a nice list of potential FAs (even if you somehow managed to forget about Andruw Jones) but a few aren't really all that good and most of the rest will be locked up before the next offseason. I do see three premium CFs out there (Andruw, Wells and Hunter) so any team with money and a need there will get their fill.

[beaminack]

that free agent list is a GM's wet dream.

[bsox21]

I just read Jason Marquis is looking for $36 million or 4 years or $30 million for 3 years.

Yes folks, Juan Pierre is becoming a good deal with every new contract.

Granted Marquis doesn't have this yet.

No way Carlos Zambrano makes it to free agency.

The Cubs better lock up Zambrano by spring training, or they will regret it.

God forbid for Cubs fans Zambrano gets pissed and commits to testing free agency....

[tradekevintowers]

Carpenter is a lock to have his option picked up for '08 and I think he'll have a contract extension by the end of next year as well.

Carpenter
Reyes
Wainright

That might be a solid front 3 for a few years to come. Wells is more then capable in the 5 slot and I think they'll have a frontline starter by the start of 2007 who will take the pressure off of Reyes and Wainright.

[beaminack]

just reported Theo, Cashman, Towers, Omar Minaya and Billy Bean all got hard nipples reading that FA list

[bsox21]

The only guy on that list that will interest the Mets is Ichiro.

I predict the Mets go hard after Ichiro.

[beaminack]

im sure the Mets would take a look at Ich but i would think with how old there rotation is they would seriously look at Carpenter and Zambrano altho them making it to in fact be free agents would surprise me. o and if they dont lock up a free agent second baseman this year i would think they would be in on Giles

[spieldogg]

Actually, the guy on that list that the Mets have shown the most intrest toward already is Linebrink. They tried to get him in the Cameron deal. Once in spring traing, then again at the trade deadline. As far as Ichiro, the Mets have 3 decent young OF in the minors in Milledge/Gomez/Martinez. It's not impossible to think that 2 out of the 3 of them could be starting with Beltran by '08. But it's way to early to try to speculate. I don't see V. Wells getting 20 mil next year. With a lot more options out there, teams won't have to overpay for the top 2-3 guys.

[Dev0]

As much as you red sox and rangers fans think your getting Vernon Wells, allow me to point out something you obviously missed. The 3 20 Mil Players all happen to play for the same team. Damon there or not The Yanks will not let Wells goto the Red Sox.

As for the Rangers Why do you think the delt Arod in the First place? The couldn't compete with that much money tied up in 1 player.

Also I agree I don't think Wells will get 20 Mil I could see 18 mil.

[ejruiz777]

Is Ichiro really going to be a free agent next season? I'm not asking whether or not 2007 is the last year on his current contract or anything like that; are he and Seattle really going to part ways? I'm just thinking that if the Braves lose Andruw Jones, they might look to Inchiro to fill his shoes in CF. Obvoiusly he'd serve a different purpose in the batting order, but they certainly need a dependable leadoff hitter.

[ejruiz777]

Is Ichiro really going to be a free agent next season? I'm not asking whether or not 2007 is the last year on his current contract or anything like that; are he and Seattle really going to part ways? I'm just thinking that if the Braves lose Andruw Jones, they might look to Inchiro to fill his shoes in CF. Obvoiusly he'd serve a different purpose in the batting order, but they certainly need a dependable leadoff hitter. He'll probably command less money per year and fewer years in all, so it would make sense in that regard.

[bsox21]

Several points:

1) By 2008, our rotation will be headed of O Perez, Pelfrey and Humber.

The rest will be either Vargas, Maine, Niese...whoever steps up.

We may also have Javier Vazquez, who both Omar and I have always wanted to see in a Mets uniform.

If we can't fill 5 slots for some reason, we won't go after a top of the rotation guy like that.

2) The Mets will be lucky if either Carlos Gomez or Milledge is ready by 08.

Chances are, Milledge will be gone by the end of December.

Forget Fernando Martinez being raedy by then. Besides, he's 18 yrs old. We have no idea what's going to happen between now and his 22 yr old season, which is really when we'll know what we have.

3) The other players won't effect V Wells' market too much.

V Wells is a franchise player for any team in the league. If yuo're on the market for a guy like that, the only alternative is Andruw Jones. The market for both will be nuts.

18 is a fair estimate if they get the years. Depends on what a team wants to do.

My prediction is slightly less than 20 for 7 years. If a team gives V Wells, I think he'll take slightly less than 20.

4) The Mets like Linebrink but so does most of baseball.

The market for RPs is a crapshoot. It's nearly impossible to predict what a team will need in the pen, especially when Rick Peterson is ur pitching coach.

Omar acquired Darren oliver, Bradford, Sanchez...etc, and the pen was awesome.

It wouldnt be Omar's style to give a midle reliever big money unless we're DESPARATE.

5) The Braves will look at Ichiro, but he's worth more at a media hub for his star power, and the Mets trump Atlanta in that regard.

Ichiro will be looking for a ring at this stage in his career, so he won't be looking at playing next to an overrated Franceour.

Ichiro is destined to play big market on a coast. Mets, Yankees or Seattle. Count on it.

[NYs Maine Man]

Happy Winter Meetings Week all...like Christmas morning today; let's hope for some big moves, plenty of trades, and a hectic week.

Good Luck Omar!

[wihargo]

One other thing that is pretty cool about Vernon Wells is that he keeps correcting his flaws and getting better. I remember a couple of years ago (good) pitchers would get him out by working him off the plate, getting him to chase low and away breaking pitches that turned into weak ground balls. I wasn't able to watch as many jays games the last couple of years, but he's not a sucker for that anymore. The guy is just going to keep on improving himself as a hitter.

[greenbaydude1232]

Expanding on your free agent list from above:

1. Ichiro
2. Abreu
3. Michael Barrett
4. Chris Carpenter
5. Adam Dunn
6. Jermaine Dye
7. David Eckstein
8. Marcus Giles
9. Carlos Guillen
10. Torii Hunter
11. Brandon Inge
12. Jeff Kent
13. Scott Linebrink
14. Ivan Rodriguez
15. Juan Uribe
16. Vernon Wells
17. Jake Westbrook
18. Michael Young
19. Carlos Zambrano
20. Jason Jennings
21. Andruw Jones

With that being said, many of those guys probably won't hit the FA market so the market will probably look a little more like this:

1. Adam Dunn
2. Marcus Giles
3. Carlos Guillen
4. Torii Hunter
5. Brandon Inge
6. Jeff Kent
7. Scott Linebrink
8. Ivan Rodriguez
9. Juan Uribe
10. Vernon Wells
11. Jake Westbrook
12. Andruw Jones

Also, Possibly Kenny Lofton if he signs a 1 year deal and that is just a small sample.

I'm not really sure what the point of this post is :)

But while the market will certainly be better than this year, I'm not sure it is big enough to significantly decrease the value of players.

What Does This Mean? Wells will get 20 mm/6 years

[greenbaydude1232]

Forgot Joe Crede in the above post as well

[Not Joe Morgan]

As someone pointed out above, I don't think the Yanks can be counted out of the Wells sweepstakes. Damon to LF, Matsui to either RF/1B/DH depending on how things have shaken out by then. Not a major stretch at all.

[palehose35]

Crede isn't a free agent until the end of 2008.

I'd be shocked if Vernon signed anywhere other than Texas.

[strongupthemiddle]

One of my best friends knows Vernon's wife- she said she expects them to be in Texas next season. So much so, that they are building a house in Westlake- right by Mark Teixeira's house

[Not Joe Morgan]

Is she pretty? I bet she's pretty.

[nrmax88]

I jknow you can never count out the yankees signing anybody, but i just dont see this happening. Liek many have said, his wife wants him in Texas, and she will most likely get what she wants (either that or a divorce and half his shit), but the yankees arent the only team who can go out and throw 16 17 18 mil at a guy anymore. If Big Z does by some chance happen to reach the market next year, I see Cashman and Minaya going to war over him, not like Zito this year, where they both dont really care about him, but really going to war over big Z, who wouldnt?

[Not Joe Morgan]

Zambrano would be so up the Mets/Yanks alley it would be insane. If he and his agent are smart (and I'm sure they are), they ignore every extension offer the Cubs propose unless they're positive his shoulder/elbow is going to give in his next outing.