Twins Make Weak Offer To Santana

According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Twins recently offered Johan Santana a two-year extension for $36MM plus a club option for 2011.  I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value. 

Heyman mentions that Santana has informed the Twins that he won't negotiate again until he hits the open market after the 2008 season.  Maybe Santana made that assertion because he felt insulted by the team's lowball offer.

If the Twins are that far apart from an extension with Santana, they might want to consider trading him sometime between now and July 31st, 2008.  Don't forget, however, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year and a good shot at one for '08.

Some have suggested that Santana will become baseball's first $200MM pitcher; clearly a deal won't get done with less than $100MM being committed.  People keep reporting that Santana will become a free agent at age 29, which is technically true, but he will be 30 on Opening Day 2009.

UPDATE: Not so fast, said Santana today.  He says he hasn't received an offer from the Twins, but the sooner the better if the Twins want to break their "no negotiations in-season policy."  A report four days ago indicated the Twins will ignore that policy for Santana.

Comments

[Ripwa]

I wouldn't be shocked if Santana is trading next off-season. If 1) Liriano shows he can pitch like he was prior to the injury. 2) Some of the other kids, Garza Perkins and Slowey, begin to show they can be big league pitchers and 3) Santana pitches great again this year, so his stock remains insanely high, i really think he will be trade.

I really wonder what a team will be willing to give up for this guy. On the one hand, teams might not give up much since he is up for grabs at the end of '08 but on the other he is far and away the best pitcher in the game. A bidding war in New York?

[vegasneedsbaseball]

If a team is contending and they land Santana, imagine what that does for their chances to win it all.

I think teams would be willing to give up alot.

[Ripwa]

Well, it will be more than the Marlins got for Beckett and that was Sanchez, Ramirez, and Delgado, so i would expect an extremely nice haul.

[desturbd1]

Here's hoping Santana ends up somewhere in the NL. I think that might actually make him a No. 1 or 2 overall fantasy pick, SP injury possibility be damned; if he strikes out 240 people a year in the AL Central, imagine what he could do in the National League. Man, that would be fun to watch.

[coolpapabell]

It would not be pretty to see Johan on the Market. This sets the table for something that has never happened before, a Mets v Yankees free agency battle, and this will not be pretty.

[bravesbeast]

I wonder if the cubs could get him for jacque jones

[WestCoastBias]

Does anyone think Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez and another solid prospect could get it done? I could see it happening in the offseason.

[desturbd1]

"Does anyone think Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez and another solid prospect could get it done? I could see it happening in the offseason."

Not really. I think the Yanks could have him for, say, Phil Hughes, Jose Tabata, and one other guy...it might even take Humberto Sanchez. I'd assume that anyone looking to trade for him would have to more or less sell the farm to do it. After all, Beckett was worth a top positional prospect, a solid-SP prospect, and and an OK RP prospect. SP's are worth more now then they were then, and Santana is well above Beckett in terms of value.

[eaganmmafia]

Johan just denied the report on the Twins pre-game show.

[eaganmmafia]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/

Here, Santana denies the whole report.

[finite24]

I don't really see $18 million a year as an insult.

1) He knows he's gonna have to take some kind of a hit if he wants to stay in Minnesota.

2) He knows that even if he is worth $30 million a year, there's a significant injury risk involved, so he won't come close to that.

What's the most a team would be willing to pay for a pitcher? Personally, I think anything more than $25 million and eight years is a death sentence for any club, NY teams included. I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.

[greenbaydude1232]

If the twins trade Johan they are going to want more than prospects but they aren't going to want to take on salary either.

If its the yankees I would think it would be something like...

Robinson Cano
Phil Hughes
Jose Tabata

From the mets...

Mike Pelfrey
Lastings Milledge
Phil Humber
Fernando Martinez

[Vuchato]

Say hello to the Braves, Johan! McCann+Thorman will be traded for him.

[1435tw]

"Not really. I think the Yanks could have him for, say, Phil Hughes, Jose Tabata, and one other guy...it might even take Humberto Sanchez. I'd assume that anyone looking to trade for him would have to more or less sell the farm to do it. After all, Beckett was worth a top positional prospect, a solid-SP prospect, and and an OK RP prospect. SP's are worth more now then they were then, and Santana is well above Beckett in terms of value."

Hughes, Tabata, and Sanchez? Not in your life, pal. I have huge respect for him, but not even Johan Santana not worth that much. Philip Hughes could likely be the next Clemens and you want to trade him and Tabata, who has Alfonso Soriano potential and another great prospect for a $200-million dollar guy that you must pay for eventually? Cashman is smarter than that. However, the Mets could pull it off since they don't have higher-ceiling guys. Pelfrey, Gomez, and Humber would work great. Pelfrey is this key, Gomez has the potentail, and Humber is the finishing touch. Humber is an add-in since he hasn't been great in the minors, but that trade sounds more reasonable. I bet the Angels could pull the trade off too, but they are loaded with SP's as it is... Great environment for Santana. Ervin Santana's given name is Johan... Hahaha, the Johan Santana Bros. That's Awesome!

[quintjs]

Its worth noting the Red Sox did get Mike Lowell and Mota too.

Its also worth noting that while a lot of teams could have used Soriano last season, no one traded for him because the price was so high.

I don't see the Yankees giving up Hughes and Tabata.

AND.. If he is being traded, he will likely hit the FA market, why wouldn't the big budget teams wait until then to get him and keep their prospects?

If he does get traded, I don't think he gets the haul you all think.

Anyway, I bet it stays.

[Paul]

On the contrary. I think the Mets have a MUCH better chance at landing him via trade than the Yankees. Calling Hughes the next Clemens before he's had any major service time is borderline blasphemy. Also, I don't see Tabata becoming the player Soriano is. You're either overly wishful or just haven't properly researched the players yet. Plus remember the keyword is potential. They could also end up like Rick Ankiel. You never know with prospects. As for the Mets, they have potential all-stars in Milledge and Gomez (as long as his numbers hold up which is always a question mark with prospects). Milledge has shown enough in his ability that he has that potential but his attitude has come into question. Plus, the Twins are about to lose Tori Hunter so they'd be eyeing any prospect who they could turn into a center fielder.

But hey, Santana denied it so it's all for nothing. 18m a year is NOT an insult. I think the 2 years with a 3rd year option is an insuslt. I figure if the Twins COULD pay him 18m, they'd offer him 4 years with a 5th year option. I think if Santana was serious about a big hometown discount, he'd take that deal as it's fairly solid. Enough financial and injury insurance. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Ripwa]

Jeez, Hughes Tabata plus another player would be a really nice haul. I think thats what Santana is worth, but i don't think a team will be willing to pull that off. If the Twins want to trade him they are going to need to take less than what they should get.

Tabata is the next Soriano? I don't see the comparison in the slightest. Tabata has NO power. As a pro he has 8 homeruns over 475 ABs. He should be a good top of the order player, but come on. Looking at the stats and scouting reports he is not going to be a top 10 player in baseball which Soriano is.

Lowell being in the Beckett trade wasn't a good thing for the Sox. That was a salary dump by the Marlins. I bet if the Sox had it their way, Lowell would have never been part of that deal (even though it worked out well).

I don't think anyone is saying at $18M a year is an insult. What is more of an insult is the 2 years. If he was getting $18M a year for 8 years i think this deal could get done.

[zubes007]

"Tabata has NO power. As a pro he has 8 homeruns over 475 ABs."

Are you an idiot? You must be...the kid is freaking 18 years old.

[zubes007]

"a top 10 player in baseball which Soriano is."

You really are an idiot...real baseball isn't fantasy baseball.

Corner OFs with career .325 OBPs aren't EVEN CLOSE to the top ten players in baseball.

Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, David Wright, Man Ram, David Ortiz, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez, Jake Peavy, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Vladimir Guerrero, Derek Jeter, Justin Morneau, Nick Johnson, Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Vernon Wells...

I could go on and on and on naming players who are better than Soriano.

[moebarguy]

I'd take Soriano over Nick Johnson. But back to the point...There's no telling what the Twins could get for Johan Santana. We're talking about the best pitcher in baseball. The scary part is that he's still relatively young.

[1435tw]

Jose Tabata has definate comparisons to Soriano. Soriano had a total of 17 HR's from 1999 to 2001. Tabata is more than capable than doing that is a few seasons and is even off to a better start that Soriano. The only bad thing that I could see happen is Tabata could fill out a little bit, but if anyone remembers, that was the same wrap on Soriano. Well... That didn't happen, obviously. From seeing both Soriano and Tabata play, I say that Tabata can become at least a 30-30 guy like the former Yankee. As for Hughes, he has already struck out the best of the Yankees' lineup in Spring Training. A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Damon, you name 'em. Is that good enough for you? He's going to really good pitcher. I'll agree that Humberto Sanchez is a good trading chip, but Hughes and Tabata are too good to give up. I say if the Yanks want Santana via trade, SP Ian Kennedy and/or SP Joba Chamberlain could be expendable, along with say 3B/1B/OF Eric Duncan and/or OF Brett Gardner. Cashman could pull off something with those guys and that is very good trade, is it not?

[finite24]

Sensible yankee fan to the rescue...

1435tw: No, that is definitely NOT enough. Sanchez is being considered more as a late inning reliever than a starter. That has hurt his prospect status. Duncan has fallen off the charts. Those guys won't cut it. And relax with Hughes. He has the talent to be an ace, even on their staff, but there's a lot of uncertainty in that. He is the best SP prospect not currently in the majors, but relax a little.

Ripwa: Tabata is in fact considered a future middle of the order talent. He's basically untouchable at this point.

Greenbaydude: Cano, Tabata, and Hughes... not happening. They wouldn't deal two of those guys for Santana considering they could just sign him as a free agent a year later.

In fact, I don't think they'd even enter into talks involving Tabata or Hughes. Not saying Santana, even if only for a year, isn't worth one of those guys and more in a trade, but the Yanks are smarter than that these days. They can be patient enough to wait another year if they want him that bad. That makes more sense than giving up Tabata and Hughes, who could put up gawdy numbers for a reserve price. So yes, Santana may be WORTH Tabata, Sanchez, and Chamberlain let's say. But there is no way the Twins will actually get that much for a one year rental.

[worldcupfever]

Jesus, I need some coffee. I thought I just read Nick Johnson's name on that list of players better than Soriano. Having a kickass mustache doesn't go THAT far.

[Ripwa]

When i said top 10 player i was referring to hitters. I understand that fantasy baseball is different than real baseball. Last year i would defiantly put him in the top 10. He was 9th in RC playing for an awful team in an awful ball park. He had an over .900 OPS while stealing 41 bags. Speed is so under appreciated by baseball fans its crazy. I watched the games his mix of power and speed was tremendous. I'm not saying that he would be a top 10 player to start a team with but his stats last year were CRAZY considering everything he went threw and where he was. People just can't look past his lack of plate discipline and see the other great things he does. Johnson, Morneau, Bay, Wells, Hanley? You really think they were better players last year? Than fine i'm an idiot.

[Pimpinpinstripes]

thank you finite24, for actually making sense

By the way, we can't compare soriano's power to tabata's power because the kid is only 18. But I can safely say that tabata at 18 has better plate discipline than soriano has now in his prime

[bobo]

A few comments on the comments:

Speed is perhaps the most OVERRATED aspect by fans. Most players' SB numbers are worth absolutely nothing, and many basestealers hurt their teams. The general rule of thumb is that you must be successful on 2/3 of your attempts to have a positive impact.

Tabata is more often compared to Manny Ramirez than Soriano.

If Soriano's defense in CF stays bad or he moves to left or right, and if he and Nick Johnson had the same chances of getting hurt, Johnson is a more valuable batter. Bay is also. Morneau and Wells are not, because they do not walk as much as the others (though they are close). Hanley Ramirez is not nearly as valuable a hitter as Soriano is. But assuming you believe his offense was for real in 2006, the fact that he's a SS makes him a more valuable player.

At the end of the season, when any trade will take place, Hughes may very well be more valuable than Santana.

Just about every team CAN get Santana if he's available - it's just a matter of who's stupid enough to part with the most cheap talent.

[Ripwa]

Speed WAS the most overrated stat. Prior to Moneyball speed was completely overrated. In the post Moneyball era, everyone looks at only OBP. Obviously OBP is a much more important stat, but thats the problem with speed. Speed is impossible to quantify completely. Certain circumstances, speed can be what makes or breaks a game. Believe i'm as sabermetric as the last guy but speed is more important than a lot of stat based fans give it credit for because its lack of a true way to quantify.

[smadak]

It ain't gonna happen, this year. Start talking about it after this season when it will become more realistic.