Clemens Chooses Yankees

No more debating or Hendricks emails - Roger Clemens will be a Yankee in 2007.  He made the announcement today at Yankee Stadium during the seventh inning stretch.  He's signed a minor league contract with New York and should be pitching in the bigs by June 1 at the latest.  According to Peter Gammons on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks offered Clemens $28MM for the season and the Red Sox $18MM.  Both figures are pro-rated, and the Red Sox were hoping to have Clemens start in late June rather than late May.  I'm surprised the Sox wouldn't top $3MM per month.

Peter Abraham has additional details: the Yanks first offered Clemens $25.5MM in Spring Training, wanting him at that time.  Abraham says a 2007 debut in the first week of June seems likely, and a commenter at his blog makes an educated guess of June 8th against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium.

Clemens is a player worth five wins by himself in just half a season, if you are a proponent of WARP.  And I don't mean pitching wins - I mean wins in the standings for the Yanks above what a replacement level guy, say Darrell Rasner, would provide.  What was at one point a laughable starting rotation for a team with such a huge payroll will become the following in a month and change:

Clemens
Pettitte
Mussina
Wang
Hughes

The Yankees are currently 13-15, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox.  The wild card still isn't the most attainable alternative, with the Indians and Tigers both playing .620 baseball.

Comments

[bozbot]

wow, I fall asleep to the yankee game and wake up to Roger Clemens' voice saying he is back as a Yankee....best nap ever!

[Laputian]

Hes been absolutely dominant in the NL, what will the switch back to the AL be like? Anyone know what to expect? As a 'stros fan I hate to see him leave, but I cant really say that Im suprised, oh well.

[Ripwa]

I don't like this news at all. I was really hoping he would go back to Houston. I'm not sure what to expect. I think it would be stupid to think he will pitch better than 3.5 ERA and 1.20 WHIP consider he never beat those number his first stint with the Yanks and that was 4 years ago. I think he will probably be a #2-3 pitcher giving them an ERA around 4. The only thing i would get worried about if i were the Yanks is the fact that he isn't going to go much further that 5 innings an outing. He is going to be facing a DH and an overall more patient lineups. Still, hard to say i'm happy he is in pinstrips.

[mclove]

Josh Beckett's starting for the Red Sox on Tuesday against Toronto, I think it'd be a lovely gesture if he did so as the new owner of #21; supposedly he's been asking for it for a year, and now that Clemens is most definitely not returning to the Red Sox there's no reason not to reassign it.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

Say what you will on Cashman. he is very good at pulling off moves without in secert, WOW can't belive NO ONE picked up on it

[ErroRod1985]

It's about winning a world series? Yeah, sure, beating the Seattle Mariners two times in a row signifies the Yankees are back on track for Clemens. I really wanted to believe him when he said that it was about winning another ring, but now that the news is out, I have no doubt; He did a Jerry Maguire, SHOW ME THE MONEY!.

[Laputian]

Yeah, it makes me wonder how long this has been a done deal. No rumor that Ive seen on the net and he made the announcement in dramatic style at Yankee stadium when most werent expecting a decision until, at least, a week from now. I cant wait for more details on the back story to this.

[RotoAuthority]

I think a 3.50 ERA sounds about right...that would be top five in the league though.

[jerseyballer]

hey errorod. if it was all about the money, dont you think he would have let the stros and sox be involved more and raise the price tag instead of just signing quitely with the yanks

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"hey errorod. if it was all about the money, dont you think he would have let the stros and sox be involved more and raise the price tag instead of just signing quitely with the yanks"

28 Million dollars genius... 28 million f*&king dollars.

"I think a 3.50 ERA sounds about right...that would be top five in the league though."

No way in hell.

[jerseyballer]

hes only getting about 18 million of that though, i know still a hell of a lot of money. but if he lett the other teams involved, the yanks would have gone even higher

[ErroRod1985]

Yes, because 18 million dollars for 4 months is not all about the money. It's about winning, and we all know they have the best starting rotation in the divison. Their bullpen is the best in the league, and their closer has been lights out this year. Can't say I don't blame him; hopefully he blends in with the rest of the staff, that is, injured.

[zubes007]

Clemens is going to get blasted by his standards (4+ ERA)...he is going from the worst division in baseball to the best.

[bulsworth]

I love how Boston fans are now bashing him, but if they would have signed him they would be singing his praises....Oh and lets not forget the Red Sox only offered $18 million for less months since they did not want him to start until July...But that wont be mentioned.

[bulsworth]

"Josh Beckett's starting for the Red Sox on Tuesday against Toronto, I think it'd be a lovely gesture if he did so as the new owner of #21;"

Yeah real classy way to treat one of your all time greats.

[Ripwa]

I am not bashing him. I am simply saying i do not believe that he is better than he was 4 years ago. Meaning, i doubt he will beat his numbers with the Yanks ( about a 3.7 ERA and 1.3 WHIP). I also don't expect him to be pitching more than 5 innings b/c last year he was averaging about 6 innings since he is facing better lineups and thats what he did last year. It makes logical sense.

[DanTheRedSoxMan]

Beckett is the new Clemens, reassigning that number sounds good to me.

This was a done deal a long time ago - does Clemens' agent think everyone is dumb enough to believe his claim that only the Yankees wanted him ASAP? He obviously never communicated to anyone else that Clemens would be ready sooner than previously expected. But surely no one believes that if they had been informed that Clemens would be ready by June 1, the Red Sox said, "No thanks, Roger. We'd really prefer to have Julian Tavarez throws another five starts before we give you his spot."

Yeah right.

As far as Clemens performance goes, obviously he'll be much better than most of their options. But he cannot be expected to pitch any better than his best seasons in the AL, and realistically, he has to be expected to decline, considering that there are significantly improved offenses in the East (D-Rays, Blue Jays).

Another thing to consider: After the Yankees finish with the Rangers and M's, they hit a very tough stretch of the schedule:
At the White Sox and Mets, home for the Red Sox and Angels, then on the road for Toronto, the Red Sox and the White Sox. If Clemens returns June 1, he's back in time for the Red Sox series (can you imagine the reception at Fenway for his 2007 debut?).

So the question in my mind is where are the Yankees situated when Clemens is ready to go, when they are running Igawa and Rasner out there every fifth day?

I'd have to say they'll be very hard pressed to keep themselves 5.5 games back. If they are, or manage somehow to cut that deficit, then they will be in good shape with Clemens back and Hughes to follow shortly thereafter.

But honestly, I could just as easily see them 8 games back when Clemens suits up.

Obviously that presumes that the Sox keep their strong start going - but looking at the schedule, they've got some easier series coming up than the Yanks do.

[DanTheRedSoxMan]

To clarify, I don't mean that he'll pitch like his best AL seasons, I mean his last couple of seasons with the Yankees.

[striker]

"Clemens is going to get blasted by his standards (4+ ERA)...he is going from the worst division in baseball to the best."

The American League East is not the best division in baseball. In fact I would say its as bad as the National League Central. The American League Central is by far the best division in baseball.

I agree though, Clemens will have a rude awakening going to the American League. It will be nice to see some more overspending by the Yankess blow up in their face.

[tyler]

Anyone who spends so much time thinking about Arod that they make their user name about him... i feel sorry for. And by they way... the redsox offered him MORE money and said he only had to pitch on Sundays

[bulsworth]

Lets not get ridiculous. No one expects him to come in and be the old Rocket. My guess is he will average 6 innings per game and an high 3/low 4 era. But to say that he will get a rude awakening in the AL is going overboard. And to say he is a 5 innings pitcher only is naive. The stros didnt let him go further because their offense sucked and they needed to do anything to get runs..plus their bullpen was very good, so it was the best option to win games.

[achilles17]

The Red Sox did not offer him more money. In fact, they offered him substantially less. They offered $18 million prorated, but they also wanted him to come back a month later, meaning he loses a month's worth of salary as well. The Yankees gave him that extra month, as well as a base salary of $28 million prorated, so $10 million more. That is a LOT more money.

[matsuzakasan]

"The American League East is not the best division in baseball. In fact I would say its as bad as the National League Central. The American League Central is by far the best division in baseball."

STRIKER are you some kind of a MORON....what sport are you watching...Softball?
Four outta FIVE....I repeat four outta FIVE teams in the AL East are in the top 15 in hitting how many are there from the NL central? ONE!!!!!!!!
How many from the AL central? TWO!!!!! Dont even post on here with that bulls**t... The American League East is easily the most dominant hitting league in baseball.

[bulsworth]

Then dont quote $10 million more since it is one month less. So it is maybe $5 million more and that is not.

It is not like bidding $50 million for a player that never pitched in the majors. What about $10 million more than the next team?

Or $5 million more for a future hall of famer.

[desturbd1]

"And by they way... the redsox offered him MORE money and said he only had to pitch on Sundays"

....riight...

He is a 5 inning pitcher. Or, based on last year's numbers, may well average 5.5 innings per start over the course of the season. He was at 5.96 IP/GS last year, and somehow I don't see that number going up with a DH.

"The American League East is not the best division in baseball. In fact I would say its as bad as the National League Central. "

...what? Toronto and Boston both have better offenses then anyone in the Central prior to this season. By a wide margin. Agreed that the AL Central's the toughest all-around league in baseball, though besides Cleveland, nobody there is doing much scoring this year.

Was a good pickup. They need him more then Boston does, that's for sure. But they're not getting a Cy Young candidate.

[matsuzakasan]

Actually desturbd1 minnesota has the fourth best offense in baseball but besides that....like i showed up above the AL east is the best hitting league in baseball....Even tampa bay is hitting this year(ranked 18th)

[matsuzakasan]

Sorry...forgot about the cubs...the NL central has 2 teams in the top 15 in hitting....

[Thrillhouse26]

Clemens would have gotten 9 from the Red Sox but about 18-20 for pitching 2/3rds of the season. And

I don't think you can get into that heated an argument over team offenses from 1 month's results. That said any AL division is worse for a pitcher to be in then the NL Central.

[snowmanny]

$28,000,000/year is more than ARod makes. Doesn't he have a clause that he must be the highest-paid player in baseball? Did he just get a raise then?

By the way, even with his pro-rated salary, his total dollars will make Clemens the highest-paid pitcher in baseball this year, topping Pettie's 16 mill (Zito's contract is back-loaded and Randy's was resturctured). So now the Yankees have the two highest-paid pitchers, the highest-paid reliever (tied with Wagner), the three highest paid position players (again, in 2007 salary) and the highest paid outfield.

I guess they're going to the playoffs.

[bsox21]

I love how the best pitcher on the team is listed 4th here.

Clemens, Pettite nor Mussina can hold a candle to Wang.

Wang is easily the Ace of that staff.

He only finished #2 in Cy Young voting last year.

[bsox21]

Clemens is a steroid pumping, money grubbing whore.

The Yankees still won't make the playoffs.

[striker]

achilles17 you are a moron. I said the American League Central is the best DIVISION in baseball. I never said it was the best HITTING division in baseball.

You need Hooked on Phonics or Sweet Pickles to get your reading comprehension up to date.

[striker]

achilles17, another thing. FOUR OUT OF FIVE, I REPEAT, FOUR OUT OF FIVE TEAMS IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL ARE OVER .500. ONE TEAM, I REPEAT, ONE TEAM IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST IS OVER .500. DO YOU COPY?

[bobo]

I'm expecting an ERA around 3.75, but it's not out of the question that it could be in the low 3s. I'm not really sure about PECOTA's projection for the NL central, it seems very pessimistic.

Anyway, of course it's a good signing, given the age and health of the staff. Between Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, and Clemens, there's a very good chance someone will be on the DL again.

As a Yankee fan, I'm not a huge Clemens fan. I remember all the 6IP, 4ER outings all too well. I was not the least bit impressed with him, considering what he did with Toronto. League differences notwithstanding, I was shocked at what he did in Houston.

It makes me think that there may be something to this 2/3 of the season thing.

Are the Yankees now the favorite in the east? I think so. Both offenses are doing about what they should be overall, but the Sox pitchers have been way over their heads for the most part. The inevitable improvement and return to health of the Yankees pitchers should be more than enough to close the gap.

[desturbd1]

"ONE TEAM, I REPEAT, ONE TEAM IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST IS OVER .500."

Right, and I'm sure the Yanks were going to stay in the basement all season long with or without Roger Clemens. Any team in the East right now would have at least contended if they'd played in the Central while Roger was there the last two years.

I have trouble putting NY as the favorites in the East just because of a single starting pitcher. Certainly, the gap has been closed. But to say Boston's offense is where it's supposed to be while the staff is overachieving...no, that's not really fair. If you're going to assume a major regression out of Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield, it's at least as fair to expect a rebound from Lugo and Drew back towards career norms. And it's still early; look what Pedroia's big series did for his numbers.

Dustin's getting better, Lugo and Drew won't slump all season long. The offense still has something of a chance for improvement, and the bullpen is at least starting to look legit; even Snyder, Pineiro, and Romero have been effective lately. Further, given that Schilling's peripherals last season weren't nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate, there's reason to believe that a 3.5ish ERA is within reach. Beckett, too, looks like a different pitcher, throwing fewer fastballs, relying more heavily on a much improved changeup in key situations, and getting more outs on the ground.

Even Wakefield, following the atypical career path of a knuckleballer, could conceivably have a career year. Too early to say that for now, and when the weather heats up we'll see what happens to that heretofore fantastic HR/rate, but I wouldn't be surprised if he maintained a low-4's this year. And Matsuzaka...despite the bloated ERA and poor control, he's not getting hit particularly hard. Once he fixes whatever it is that keeps causing him to lose his release point for an inning and go wild, who knows what he'll be capable of.

Should be one hell of a race.

PS: "Actually desturbd1 minnesota has the fourth best offense in baseball"

By what measure, exactly? They're 4th in AVG, but big deal. 17th in OPS and runs scored.

[bobo]

Wow, you're right on the offense. Drew and Lugo have been slumping lately and I remembered them being about right around where they should be when the Yankees were playing them. Manny of course will improve as well - the only guys really hitting over their heads are Cora and I guess Hinske a bit. Actually I'm surprised the Sox have scored as many runs as they have.

But I disagree on the pitching - the only guy who can be reasonably expected to lower his ERA is Matsuzaka.

The Yankees team ERA though, from here on out should be a full run better or so, while the Sox should be at least .5 worse. That's a lot of runs and wins.

[achilles17]

Uh, striker, I dunno why you addressed your post to me, but I certainly said nothing of the sort.

Protip: the name of the poster goes below the message, not above.

[astralpanda]

One thing my White Sox love, it's beating the sh*t out of Clemens' overpaid ass. Nice move Yanks!

"Let's solve our injury woes by giving 28 million to a 45 year old"

lol Ca$hman does it again. Bravo my friend, bravo.

[matsuzakasan]

Hey achilles...i think striker is the one that needs hooked on phonics...HAHAHA

but back to that douchebag...I believe this entire post was about ROGER CLEMENS "Pitching" in the AL East stupid. i know it's been 3 years but last i checked the pitchers dont bat in the american league so that would make pitching stats irrelevant.....so like i said before MORON and you can quote it....IN REGARDS TO ROGER CLEMENS PITCHING...HE IS PITCHING IN THE BEST I REPEAT BEST HITTING LEAGUE IN BASEBALL

so you should get hooked on phonics and read the title of the post before you say something that dumb

and if you want real statistics the AL east win pct. against the AL central is .500 so far numbnutz and most of the rest of the games were played in the division which just shows how tough the division is...sorry we dont have the royals to beat on 18 times a year....you must be a disgruntled tigers fan thats pissed that his team couldn't beat the f**kin st louis cardinals....

[WHIPit]

Great article, no mention of Houston whatsoever. Only speculation on Boston and NY. Thanks again, MLBTR.

[DentalPlan]

As usual, Yankees fans exaggerate and think this guarantees them a World Series victory. Just like Pavano, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, etc. Clemens pitched well in the NL Central but that's the NL Central, Arroyo was a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East and is an ace in the NL Central. I would not be surprised to see him around 4.40 and possibly injured in August.

It's an improvement, but the gloating... give me a break.

[WHIPit]

Take a look at his last WS appearance. :D

[quintjs]

Does this mean Pavano is available?

[beaminack]

HA

[MickS]

This is where the analytical, stat-head side of me gives way to the emotinal side. I hope Clemens age and steroid usage finally catches up with him and he falls flat on his fat face on the biggest of all possible stages. And I hope the Yankees and all of their arrogant, insufferable fans fall with him.

[MWD1202]

I love how Red Sox fans are making Josh Beckett out to be this God-esque pitcher. In 5 regular season games against the Yankees, he has a 8.44 ERA with batters hitting .306 against him. In 5 regular season games against the Blue Jays, he has a 6.21 ERA with batters hitting .255 against him.

Not to mention, last year was the only year he has ever made more than 30 starts in his career. But now, because he has a good start to the season, he is supposed to be this big game pitcher that is going to take the Red Sox back to the WS. Gotta love it.

[MWD1202]

DentalPlan, it does not guarantee them anything. No Yankees fan should be blind enough to realize that Roger Clemens eliminates the flaws on this team. The fact remains that the team has an overworked bullpen as well as little to no depth sitting on their bench.

But the Rocket will give the Yankees credible pitching. He's not a #1 starter anymore; anybody who is thinking that needs to get it out of their head. But he is going to bring a 6 to 7 inning starter to nearly every game and bring the intimidation that the Yankees so desperately need. Another factor in here is that this inside pitching by the Red Sox is going to stop. No longer are Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka going to hit the best players on the Yankees without Ortiz and Ramirez being put on their behinds. It doesn't matter which way Red Sox fans want to spin it, the proportion for hit batsmen is just ridiculous. This signing does not guarantee anything; but it sure is a step in the right direction.

[cubsbaseball]

There is no way that any player is worth over $4 mil a month, let alone Roger Clemens. He will not give the Yankees enough innings to justify his salary. He will pitch into the 7th inning of any game this year, and will complain when he gets hit hard in some games. I am not a Red Sox fan, I am a Cub fan, so don't think I am saying all this because I am angry that he didn't come back to the Red Sox. I am angry at Roger Clemens for ripping off baseball. Retire Roger, stay home.

[bobo]

Actually, according to BP, Johan Santana's weighted mean PECOTA projection (2.97 ERA) is worth over $28M for the season, or nearly $5M a month. That's about the best possible case for Clemens, but not out of the realm of possibility.

More likely would be a WARP that makes him worth about $20M over a full season. Combined with the Yankees' need for starting pitching, the fact that they don't have to give up any players, the additional draw, the increased likelyhood that he'll go into the HOF as a Yankee, the leadership and impact on young pitchers, etc., this is a no-brainer for the Yankees.

I don't see how he's ripping off baseball. He is unique. Like I said earlier, I'm not his biggest fan, and I don't expect him to dominate at all as he did with Houston. But as a Yankee fan I love the move.

Does it guarantee anything? No way. But I believe it does make the Yankees the favorites.

[Ripwa]

Man, this makes the Yanks the favorites? The Yankees are currently in 9th place in the AL. You can make the argument that they will improve natural, besides Clemens, but they aren't the only ones.

[bobo]

I haven't done all the math but roughly I expect Boston's offense to improve a decent amount and their pitching to decline by a decent amount (maybe half a run).

NY's offense is about where it should be - possibly it will see a slight improvement. Its pitching will improve vastly (~1 run).

Off the top of my head, I think that's enough to close the gap and make the Yankees the favorites.

Sure, others will improve. I don't study the AL as in depth as the NL but I don't think any team's pitching has underperformed as much as the Yankees have.

[DownFromNJ]

"

As usual, Yankees fans exaggerate and think this guarantees them a World Series victory. Just like Pavano, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, etc. Clemens pitched well in the NL Central but that's the NL Central, Arroyo was a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East and is an ace in the NL Central. I would not be surprised to see him around 4.40 and possibly injured in August.

It's an improvement, but the gloating... give me a break.
"

So, by your logic:

Arroyo = 4.50 ERA in AL East
Arroyo = 3.20 ERA in NL Cent

Difference = 1.30 ERA

Clemens = 2.30 ERA in NL Cent

2.30 + 1.30 = 3.60

A 3.60 ERA would be Clemens a top-10 pitcher in the AL last year.

[Ripwa]

You do understand that Clemens never pitched better than a 3.5 ERA while with the Yanks? You do understand that he is only going to be a 5 and 1/3- 5 and 2/3 inning pitcher. He is clearly and upgrade, but the middle relief is going to still be killed. Plus, you must be assuming Moose and Hughes comes back and be what they are "suppose" to be. You are assuming that Pettite and Wang don't get hurt. To project them to improve a full run is pretty insane.

[micmillon18]

Sorry to be a lil off topic but does anyone else think its funny how the yankees are called the yankees when New York City was actually one of the biggest supporters of the British during the American Revolution?

[bobo]

I'm making reasonable assumptions about how healthy the players should be and how they'll perform.

They have 133 games left. As it stands now, Mussina, Wang, and Pettitte can be active for all of them, Clemens for about 115 of them and Hughes for about 85-90. I'll say 85.

Of the 85 that all could be active for, I think a reasonable guess is that the 5 make a collective 70 starts.

Of the 30 that 4 are active for, I'd say we can expect 20 starts from the 4 of them.

Of the 28 that 3 are active for, we'll say that Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina make 14 of them.

So we've got a total of 104 starts out of 133 made by the 5 good pitchers.

All 5 of them are pretty similar in terms of results. For simplicity I'll say that they'll collectively have a 3.80 ERA with none deviating too much from that number (I'd be perfectly willing to debate this choice of 3.80).

Now for the "fill-ins" - Rasner, Karstens, Igawa, DeSalvo, etc. - I think an ERA of around 5 is reasonble.

So we've got 104 starts of 3.80 ERA, and 29 starts of 5.00 ERA.

Again for simplicity we'll just assume the same number of innings for each (even though the better starters will inevitably pitch more).

So that's a weighted starters ERA of 4.06 (which actually should be lower).

To date the starters have had an ERA of 5.25. And the bullpen will be less taxed and should be expected to pitch a bit better (though admittedly some have unsustainably low ERAs, like some Boston relievers). Also at least one of the fill-in starters will be on the roster as a long reliever/someone to eat innings in blowouts - which they don't have now, so the good relievers will be even more rested (or at least as rested as you can be when pitching for Torre).

So a 1 run improvement is very reasonable, if not too conservative.

I'm happy to debate any of the specific points here.

[Ripwa]

I'm not going to break down it one by one why you are run but i will say this, if you think they will have a 4.06 ERA for the rest of the year you are crazy. Last year as 4.06 would be by about 25 runs the best pitching in baseball. They DO NOT have a better staff than Detriot or San Diego had last year. Like come on, a sub-3 ERA is not possible with this team, no chance no way.

[nrmax88]

"hey errorod. if it was all about the money, dont you think he would have let the stros and sox be involved more and raise the price tag instead of just signing quitely with the yanks"

Just because he signed quitley with the yanks, you think that he didnt talk with anybody else? Boston offered him like 19 mil pro rated, 10 less then what NY offered. I kind of got a kick out of him saying, yeah I came back for Jeter, and Joe Torre, and all the good things happening here. Lol. Right. Because Jeter and Torre and Steainbrenner werent playing for the Yankees last year when u signed a huge contract to play for houston. Yes Rocket, the 28 million had nothing to do with it. We know, you just want the ring. Its a nice pickup for the Yankees, I cant lie, but 28 mil prorated? Orel Hershiser said after an educated guess of what Clemens pitch count will be this season, he should earn about 70 grand a PITCH. Clemens will earn more in his first minute on a mound with the Yankees then most will earn this entire year. Wow. I just hope for the sake of yankee fans that they arent expecting the below 2.5 era we have got used to see him put up in houston. The AL east most certainly is not the NL central. I truthfully think any AL east team, even the Devil Rays, worst team in that division, would have had a better offense then any NL central team that the rocket faced last year. It should be fun.

"I'm not going to break down it one by one why you are run but i will say this, if you think they will have a 4.06 ERA for the rest of the year you are crazy. Last year as 4.06 would be by about 25 runs the best pitching in baseball. They DO NOT have a better staff than Detriot or San Diego had last year. Like come on, a sub-3 ERA is not possible with this team, no chance no way."

Come on man, you know Yankee fans. They got the rocket, so now they are gaurunteed their yearly spot in the playoffs, because the Yankees make the playoffs no matter what, its their birth right. LOL. Let them have their fun, this division belongs to the sawx

[nrmax88]

"The American League East is not the best division in baseball. In fact I would say its as bad as the National League Central. The American League Central is by far the best division in baseball."

Yes your right, because those Yankee and Redsock lineups cant even compare to those of the might Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, and Cubs. I seriously think that every team in the AL East has a better lineup then every team in the NL central, the Cubbies can rake when their goin, and so can the crew, but as a pitcher, i would rather face any NL central lineup over any AL East lineup, inlcuding the D Rays. Obviously The AL Central is the best division, that doesnt mean they have the toughest hitters to face for a pitcher though.

[brian91388]

As a redsox fan Im not gonna bash roger too much because I would have loved to see him come back. However anyone who thinks this deal wasnt about money is mistaken. Had it been about winning a world series he would have come to boston because a rotation of clemens, schilling, beckett, matsuzaka, and wakefield would destroy mussina, wang, pettitte, and whatever 2 scrubs the yankees throw out. Had it been about turning a team around, he would have gone to the astros. Had his decision been about the better story, it would have been boston, where he could finish where he started and finally win one in boston. Its sad he went for the money, but hey, its roger after all.

[bobo]

Ripwa, nrmax, if you think the Yankees staff will have an ERA higher than 4.06, then I invite you to give your predictions for their pitchers' ERAs for the rest of the season. I honestly it is more likely for _every_ pitcher on their staff to have an ERA below 4.06 than above it. Now, we know that injuries will happen, and some pitchers will be unexpectedly ineffective, and before Clemens and Hughes are in we will have some poor starts - which pushes it up over 4.

I love how I gave a specific, detailed argument about why I believe the Yankees' pitching to be significantly better than it has been so far, and the only response is "I'm crazy" and "you know Yankee fans."

And for the record, 4 teams in baseball had an ERA better than 4.06 last year, including 3 AL teams.

So - do you accept my challenge? If you think that the Yankees will have an ERA above 4.06 the rest of the way, I'd like to know specifically which pitchers you believe will have an ERA above 4.06.

Or, you can just call me crazy and name-call some more. Up to you.

[bobo]

Or maybe he went for the team which he felt most comfortable with, and just in general _wanted_ to play for the most. And yes, he knew he could get the most money from them as well. But he also knew he could get more money before, and he played for the Astros because that's where he _wanted_ to play.

I think a Houston paper put it best - Clemens got bored of the Astros. And quotes from Clemens and his wife indicated that he was still upset with the way he was treated his final year in Boston.

[matsuzakasan]

Hear hear nrmax88...thank god somebody's talking some sense....hands down the AL east is the best hitting division in baseball....Roger's an improvment for the yanks but he will still struggle a bit and all that nonsense bobo spit up above is ridiculous...nobody can just assume how many games can be pitched by whom....statistics or no statistics the fact is the yanks have a lot of old pitching and a lot of inexperienced young pitching and nobody to meet them in the middle which leads to injurys and back to back to back to back homeruns....everyone can argue ERA's and blah blah blah...but i'll say it here... both teams have a staff to win 100 games but the sox are healthy and winning and the yanks are not...In the end it all comes down to the W's and the L's....And to the hater up above who thinks beckett sucks....GIV'EM #21
BABY....NOT CAUSE IT"S CLEMEN'S # BUT BECAUSE IT'S HOW MANY GAMES HE'S GONNA WIN......

[nrmax88]

"Then dont quote $10 million more since it is one month less. So it is maybe $5 million more and that is not.

It is not like bidding $50 million for a player that never pitched in the majors. What about $10 million more than the next team?

Or $5 million more for a future hall of famer."

Wow, your stupid team spent half that money on Kei Igawa, would u rather have 3 igawas or one dice K? Ill take my 1 dice K. And yes, your right, they did bid lots of money on him when he was never in the majors, but the ironic thing is you are making jokes on bosox for signing a guy who is now better then every pitcher on the Yankee roster. Classic

[matsuzakasan]

bobo...if clemens wants to be comfortable he should just retire already and be comfortable in a hammock on the beach in the carribean....dont try and justify the fact he's a money grubber like most athletes these days by saying his feelings were hurt in boston...WAAAAAAAA!!! MAN UP TO WIN OR RETIRE!

[nrmax88]

"As usual, Yankees fans exaggerate and think this guarantees them a World Series victory. Just like Pavano, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, etc. Clemens pitched well in the NL Central but that's the NL Central, Arroyo was a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East and is an ace in the NL Central. I would not be surprised to see him around 4.40 and possibly injured in August. "

You forgot Arod, Giambi, and Jaret Wright :)

[nrmax88]

"No longer are Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka going to hit the best players on the Yankees without Ortiz and Ramirez being put on their behinds. It doesn't matter which way Red Sox fans want to spin it, the proportion for hit batsmen is just ridiculous."

Wow, thats classic, we signed Roger Clemens because the Red sox pitchers throw too inside against are hitters and all of us are too pussy to retaliate so we need the rocket. You make it sound as if the Redsox should be ashamed of beaning your guys. Its called pitching, good pitchers pitch inside. If the proportion of hits batters is so ridiclous, then why didnt one of your guys do something? What happened last time Roger came inside to the Manny Ramirez? Oh yeah, Don Zimmer ended up on the ground and then crying like a little girl after that. Typical Yankees. I wonder if Clemens will be able to intimidate the giggling out of the Redsock dugout after abreu tries for the millionth time to lay down a bunt in an RBI spot in the first inning again.

[bobo]

MATSUZAKASAN:

"all that nonsense bobo spit up above is ridiculous...nobody can just assume how many games can be pitched by whom"

Really? So I name a pitcher, and you can't come up with an idea of how many starts he will make?

Let's try a little game. How many starts will Curt Schilling make for the rest of the year?

I think he will make more than 1, and less than 100. Do you agree?

Now let's narrow it down a bit - I say more than 5, and less than 30. Still agree?

More than 10 and less than 28?

See how this works? We get into an acceptable range. When we're talking about more pitchers, the odds that we can give an accurate approximation of the number of games started collectively increase.

If you think the number is less than what I stated, feel free to tell why, I'm perfectly open to other opinions, and I may be too optimistic though I try to be subjective.

But yeah, it is a lot easier just to make baseless arguments.

[nrmax88]

Bobo, I though John Maine was the number 1 pitcher on your list of guys who were gona flop after biog seasons last year? What happened to that prediction? " I honestly it is more likely for _every_ pitcher on their staff to have an ERA below 4.06 than above it. Well, thats nice, it doesnt prove anything thought. I could say something like, its more likely that all the mets hitters will hit more then 30 HR then it is then it is they will all hit under 30 HR. Its just stupid. Some of them will hit more, some of them wont. Some of your pitchers will have an era over 4.06, some wont. I dont quite undrstand wht you were getting at. I just think it is ridiculous that 1 pitcher is going to lower a team ERA a full puint in about 2/3 of a season. Also, what makes you think that by the time Roger is ready the bullpen isnt already shot? What has mussina shown to even prove that he will win 10 games this year? His blazing 83 mph top out fastball? I just dont see any possible way that the Yankees are is below 4 at the end of the year.

[matsuzakasan]

why? You ask? Because i played baseball for 16 years...and there is nothing predictable about it...and you...you probably think you have it figured out because you teach high school statistics and watch the yankees games on the weekend....

Pop quiz smart guy....

why do the NY Mets statistically have the best pitching AND best hitting in baseball yet there are 5 teams that have as good or better winning pct.

STATS aren't everything..Get your nerdy ass off fantasy baseball for once and enjoy the game for what it is...FUN and UNPREDICTABLE!!!!

[Ripwa]

I'm not even going to sit here and act like an expert like you. I'm going to just cite ZiPS and i'm pretty sure these numbers are gonna be best case.

Wang - 4.28
Moose- 3.91
Pettitte - 4.10
Hughes - 4.06
Igawa - 4.77
Ranser - 5.12
Karstens - 5.25
Clemens - 4.01*

*I don't have Clemens ZiPS so i'm gonna take his average ERA from his first stint with the Yanks.

So looking at all those number prior to the injuries and other things that have happened, below a 4.06 is pretty dumb. I am not going to to the distributions but quickly doing it ZiPS calls for around a 4.2. That is not taking in account how bad they already have done and the fact that they are already having injury problems. So does that suffice or do you want me to make predictions like you based on basically nothing just what you feel?

[matsuzakasan]

Ripwa it's useless...I think Bobo just likes to see himself talk ; )

[bobo]

1 pitcher is absolutely NOT going to buy the team 1 ERA point. Mussina, Wang, Hughes, and Clemens combined will. If you got the impression from anything I said that Clemens alone would be responsible for the Yankees' pitching turnaround, then I apologize.

Ok, how's this - based on past performance and projections by people much smarter than either of us, I think is is more likely than not that Hughes, Wang, Mussina, Clemens, and Pettitte all have ERAs below 4.06 than above it. I also guarantee that at least one of them will have an ERA above 4.06. Maybe all of them will but that is extremely unlikely. If I had to guess, I'd 2 of them will, and 3 won't. It still averages out to less than 4.06

You can say that all Mets hitters will hit over 30 HR, but that's a pretty absurd statement because, as you know (and I know you're exaggerating), the chances of some of them doing it (eg. Green, whoever the 2B is, LoDuca) is very low.

But you could say that that it's more likely than not that every hitter in the Mets lineup will hit at least 1 HR this year, because the probability of that happening is extremely high.

So clearly it's not "stupid" to make statement like the one I made. You may disagree with the 4.06 figure, and that's fine - I'd like to where, specifically, you disagree (you started with Mussina, and that's very reasonable). If I said I think it's more likely that not that the Yankee rotation would have an ERA below 8, would it still be "stupid"?

Anyway, Mussina pitched well in his last start and I think he will regain velocity coming back from his injury. He was unlucky with respect to batted balls in 2004 and 2005. His FIPs (a good measure of expected ERA) for the past 4 years are 3.26, 4.10, 4.19, and 3.51. It's certainly possible that he lost a lot of "stuff" this year, but based on his recent history I believe he didn't.

If you want to provide a counter-argument, feel free (or tell me why any other starter is more likely to have an ERA above 4.06 - I might just agree with you).

Maybe you're busy and don't have the time to do such an analysis. That's a better answer than name-calling and making baseless statements. "I just don't see any possible way" is not an argument.

As for Maine:
He has simply had one of the luckiest stretches imaginable. If you like I'll go into detail about how lucky he's been. His ERA should be roughly double what it is now. I think he's a good pitcher - but not remotely as well as he's pitching now. I'm expecting him to finish with an ERA between 3.60 and 3.90.

[matsuzakasan]

the problem is....nobody cares what you think Bobo

[matsuzakasan]

hey did anybody know that statistically if Babe Ruth were hitting in the modern day Yankee Stadium when he was playing...he would have hit over 1200 HR's....
Who cares......This convo is moot

[bobo]

Ripwa, thank you, at least we're getting somewhere.

Zips, like all projections, intend to give a most likely scenario. They are absolutely NOT best case.

But I can't really dispute those numbers - they're certainly reasonable. I think they will be a bit lower in some cases, based on similar analyses like how I discussed Mussina above.

Also, looking at other projections:

Bill James:
Mussina: 3.60
Wang: 3.91
Pettitte: 3.69

Chone:
Mussina: 3.77
Wang: 4.10
Pettitte: 4.10

Marcel:
Mussina: 4.27
Wang: 3.97
Pettitte: 3.95

(Hughes is not available.)

I enjoy talking about baseball, and baseball stats. Shoot me.

[Ripwa]

I just gave you an explaination as to why i think you are crazy. Please don't play the victim and act like you are holier than tho. You sound stupid. Oh no i called you crazy, that means you must be right. I'll say it again, you are crazy. ZiPS is a better projection system than both of us and they say you are wrong. Not to mention the fact that ZiPS doesn't account for injuries or the AWFUL start they are of to. No way they can shave a full run off there ERA. Its not gonna happen and you act like you put together a sound argument and i just say its not going to happen. You haven't shown any stats that prove they will shave a run and get below a 4.06.

[Ripwa]

Alright, even if they do better that ZiPS, which is completely stats base so it basically is a best case scenario, they still don't have the stats to get it down to 4.06. It is not like we are 5 games in. We are 30 games into the season. Thats a pretty hefty amount. The starters would need to have about a 3.7 ERA the rest of the way to get it down to 4.06. Considering Clemens and Hughes wont be pitching for another 3-5 weeks, that seems completely unrealistic for this month. Lets say they have an ERA of 4.5 this month, dropping it almost a about .75 runs, that would mean the starters would need about a 3.41 for the rest of the last 3/5 - 2/3 of the season. Thats NOT going to happen. How could you ever think they will be able to post a 3.4 for 3-4 monthes. No rotation in baseball will do that, and the Yanks do not have the best staff.

[nrmax88]

"As for Maine:
He has simply had one of the luckiest stretches imaginable. If you like I'll go into detail about how lucky he's been. His ERA should be roughly double what it is now. I think he's a good pitcher - but not remotely as well as he's pitching now. I'm expecting him to finish with an ERA between 3.60 and 3.90."

Ok, now since when is 3.90 bad? He has an era right around there last year and you predicted him to fall off. If you want I will go find it. But actually, yes, I would love nothing more then for you to tell me why he has been so lucky. Please do. He has been lights out, walking too many guys, but thats the only thing I have to complain about.He didnt have any of his good stuff the other night and still went 6+ and got a win, only giving up 1 run. Tell me why he has been so lucky.

[nrmax88]

Since as we all know, a simple answer of ..."He has simply had one of the luckiest stretches imaginable" is just simply not an arguement.

[bobo]

ZiPS, and any projection, certainly DOES account for injuries - if it didn't, it would predict more than 31 starts for Pettitte, and more than 27 starts for Schilling, for example.

I don't see how the awful start affects anything. They have been awful because Wang was hurt (as an example), and poor starters were taking the ball in his place. Now Wang is healthy. So why does the team's bad start make it less likely that he'll pitch better in the future?

Also, I started my last post by thanking you for posting something intelligent ("Zips is a good projection system and here's what they think" is very reasonable.) and I get attacked some more. Thanks a lot.

Anyway, the average of your Zips projections is not 4.20, it's 4.07. Since the 5 of them won't pitch all the games remaining, it should be a bit higher. The replacements should have an ERA around 5 (based on the numbers you gave). So we're talking about a total of around 4.20 or so.

The starters, to date, have had an ERA of 5.25. That's a difference of more than a run, based on the statistics you just gave me, right?

[nrmax88]

Still waiting....

[bobo]

Since as we all know, a simple answer of ..."He has simply had one of the luckiest stretches imaginable" is just simply not an arguement.

100% correct. Here we go:

His BABIP is .229, compared to the league average of around .300.

He has given up HR in 4.4% of his fly balls. Research has shown that anything lower than about 10% is due to luck.

He has had a LOB% (% of baserunners allowed that do not score) of 92%. This is off the charts lucky. League average is around 70%.

Like you said, he's walking too many guys.

So essentially he should have given up more hits than he has, more home runs than he has, and more runners that he has allowed should have scored.

He was similarly lucky last year.

If I said last year that he'd be significantly worse than 3.90, then I now take that back, because he has pitched well this year. Just not sub-2 (or sub-3) ERA well.

[Ripwa]

Wang 26 games at 4.28 = 111.28 runs

Pettitte 26games at 4.10 = 106.6 runs

Clemens 22games at 4 = 88 runs

Moose 26 games at 3.91 = 101.66 runs

Hughes 20games at 4.06 = 81.2 runs

Everyone else 6 games at 5 = 30 runs

Using those numbers and assuming they pitch the MAX they can you get 3.99. You really expect them all to pitch to their potential and those amount of games, than that your perogative. But lets be honest, not a chance.

[bobo]

Those numbers aren't their "potential", they're weighted average projections. I definitely do not expect them all to pitch to their potential. Some will exceed those numbers and some will be worse.

Of course we don't know how many games they'll pitch. Someone will get hurt at some point (in addition to the time we already know Hughes and Clemens are missing).

My guess is that pitchers other than the 5 lists (i.e. the guys with the aggregate 5.00 ERA) pitch about 25-30 games. This accounts for May without Clemens (4 starts), and May and June without Hughes (10 starts), and another 11-16 starts - maybe due to a couple minor injuries, a major injury, or some combination thereof. You might think

That works out to roughly 4.20-4.25 or so. I think the number for "starts not made by the big 5" (25-30) is reasonable. Your opinion might be different.

If you said from the beginning "no, I think there will be 60 games pitched by other crappy guys", then I would say "that's possible and I respect your opinion".

But at least, I hope I've shown that the starters having an ERA a run lower than they have thus far is not crazy.

[bobo]

Here are some articles by Mets fans dealing with their skepticism of Maine, based on some of the factors I discussed above - BABIP in particular:

http://www.flushinguniversity.com/moxie/columns/matt-original.shtml
http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2007/05/01/the-curious-case-of-john-maine/

The metsgeek.com site has some good comments by knowledgeable fans.

[matsuzakasan]

"So essentially he should have given up more hits than he has, more home runs than he has, and more runners that he has allowed should have scored."

That is the dumbest thing i've ever heard....

and based On my pimpin skills i should have been dating Carmen Electra, Pamela anderson and Anna Kournikova all at the same time...

[Ripwa]

Fine, lets say those are their averages. I am being extremely generous with the starts total. But i can see them having a 4 ERA the rest of the way. That would be however that there final ERA for starter will be 4.25. That is significantly different than 4.06. You are so greatly underestimating how hard it is to make up for the 5.25 start to the season its insane. And, yes these numbers are basically best case scenario because they don't account for the fact that Moose, Wang, and Hughes have gotten hurt. These stats are going on past experiences and don't account for the negative aftermath that ensues from these injuries. It is a variable thats impossible to quantify exactly.

[nrmax88]

Come on bro, are you kidding me? He has given up less Hr then he should of? What the hell is that? He is a fly ball pitcher taking adavantage of pitching in Shea. Do you even watch him pitch? He throws a high fastball with late movement that gets tons of popups. You dont even know the situation of the guys he strands. He doesnt allow a ton of hits, but his walk rate is high so he gives up some baserunners, but he finds a way to get out of innings because he can get strikeouts in big spots. Again, this is a perfect situation why baseball isnt played on a computer. You can look at stats and say he is lucky, but anybody who has been watching him pitch can see that he isnt getting lucky. For the most part his walks come in bunches where he will lose his focus for a batter or 2, but for the most part he pounds the strike zone. You mentioned he walks to many people, which he does, but he also is striking out close to a batter per inning, and he gets a ton of popups. Am i saying he is not going to lose a game all year, and have an era under 2? Of course not, but I think people who have watched him realize he will only get better, as he still for the most part throws fastballs, but his slider and changeup are getting better and more consisntently thrown for strikes, and I dont think an era in the low to mid 3's is ridiculous. You said earlier you think his ERA would be from 3.60 to 3.90, but that would be almost the same as last year when I distinctly remember you calling him a bust.

[nrmax88]

You can make the arguement that any pitcher who had a good year was lucky by using your numbers. Of course a pitcher who has a good season is going to give up less HR then other pitchers, get more outs on groundouts and flyouts then the average pitcher, and leave more guys on base then an average pitcher, because good pitchers leave guys on base, average or bad ones let them score more often. These are the things that make good pitchers good.

[bobo]

Ripwa, you've been misunderstanding me the whole time. I said that the ERA from here on out would be a run better than it has been so far.

matsuzukasan - I suggest you read up on more sabermetric material and you will perhaps then realize why he "should have" given up more hits than he did.

[matsuzakasan]

Bobo i suggest you should stop worrying about what "should have" happened in baseball and maybe you can come up with something intelligent to say....

[matsuzakasan]

Bobo i suggest you should stop worrying about what "should have" happened in baseball and maybe you can come up with something intelligent to say....

[Ripwa]

Well, thats pretty stupid.

[bobo]

nrmax:

There are certain things that the pitcher can control, and certain things he cannot (or has a very small factor in). This has been discussed over and over again. They are the basics of Tim's projections (he uses component ERA).

"Of course a pitcher who has a good season is going to give up less HR then other pitchers" - yes, because he gives up more grounders than fly balls, and strikes out more batters. But the ratio of HR to fly balls is shown to be pretty constant, and deviations one way or the other are not sustainable.

"get more outs on groundouts and flyouts then the average pitcher" - not really true. A pitcher has very little control over what happens if a ball is hit into play.

"leave more guys on base then an average pitcher, because good pitchers leave guys on base, average or bad ones let them score more often." - yes because good pitchers get outs more frequently. Maine is pitching better with runners on base which has been shown is not sustainable. It's luck.

"These are the things that make good pitchers good."

No, the things that make pitchers good are:
K rate
Ground ball rate
Walk rate
to a lesser extent, line drive rate

Now, the thing is, fly ball pitchers typically have higher strikeout rates, so of course fly ball pitchers can be successful even if their ground ball rate is ppor. But they also give up more home runs of course.

I absoulutely cannot make the argument that any pitcher was lucky. Every year many pitchers are lucky, and many are not, of course. Very few have the ERA which exactly matches their skills. Examples of guys who have been unlucky this year are Lilly, Harang, and Willis. Pettitte has been lucky in terms of his ERA, though, for example.

There are plenty of studies done (again, by people much smarter and more knowledgable than either us) that support everything I've said. Whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you guys. There are tons of things that have been proven beyond a reasonble doubt that people choose not to believe for one reason or another.

One of the most exciting things about the sport, I think, is that people are discovering new things through mathematics which are very counterintuitive to how people saw the game even as recently as 5-10 years ago.

As for Maine, an ERA in the low to mid 3s is NOT ridiculous. Nor is an ERA over 4. But I don't think that either of those are the MOST LIKELY, or correctly weighted mean outcome. I think that number is around 3.75. Would I be shocked if it was 3.30? No. Slighly surprised? Yes. The same way I'd be shocked if Clemens' ERA was 3.30 in the AL east.

[bobo]

"Bobo i suggest you should stop worrying about what "should have" happened in baseball and maybe you can come up with something intelligent to say....

Posted by: matsuzakasan | May 07, 2007 at 07:34 PM"

"Well, thats pretty stupid.

Posted by: Ripwa | May 07, 2007 at 07:38 PM"

Insightful as usual. Thanks guys, it's been fun. Have a good night. Like I said, you can choose to believe it or not. If you're intellectually curious, you'll read more and maybe be convinced. If you are happy just watching a game and enjoying it and aren't concerned with the role of luck in the game, then that's great too. To be honest, when I'm intently watching a game I'm not thinking about this stuff either - it's just when I can later get to a computer and pore of the stats. It's a good distraction from work :)

[Ripwa]

I love that you think you are smarter than me. You got to love elitist on a baseball blog. If thats what you are aruging than well thanks captain obvious. Man, the Yankees pitching will be better now that people are getting healthy and they got Clemens, jeez next thing you are going to tell me is that if Manny Ortiz and Drew all get hurt, the Red Sox will score a significant amount less runs.

[philliesman07]

am i the only one who thinks that the yankees are stupid for making this deal?? 28 mill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! for a guy who is 44 years old and does not even travel with the team i dont care who you are or how good you are you are a part the the team but since your roger clemens you dont have to travel with us. and Wait didnt Roger say that it was not for the MONEY all i can say is bull. he should just retire. they are not going to get any better with him. this is one of the dumbest deals i have ever seen ROGER CLEMENS JUST RETIRE FOR EVERYONES SAKE

[bobo]

Seriously? I don't care at all that I'm smarter than you. I enjoy intelligent conversation, and in the absence of that, at least you challenged me to check my facts and brush up on my baseball research. For that, I thank you.

[bobo]

Roger doesn't make the Yankees any better? So in other words, Igawa is as good as Roger?

God, I need to get a life and when I get home from a great night out in the city try my best to ignore this site...