Mets Would Chase Zambrano

Hey, it's early: nobody's handing out the good rumors yet.

I don't think Carlos Zambrano is going anywhere this year (2008 is a different story, of course), and I think the Cubs will be in the race until close to the end, but if he is on the block, some random source is saying that the Mets would be in on it. 

Well, duh.

As is often the case with ace pitchers, though, there probably won't be a mega-deal.  If Zambrano pitches to his potential, the Cubs are all the more likely to stay in it.  If he doesn't, he would be on the block, but why would teams part with the crown jewels for an unpredictable guy with a 4.50 ERA?  As I say, I think the former scenario is much more likely.  But if Big Z does end up on the block, the Mets will have plenty of competition.

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

Comments

[spieldogg]

The Mets 5 starters have era's of 1.94, 2.80, 2.81, 3.22 and then there is the worst out of all of them Tommy Glavine with a 3.36. Zambrano's is 5.38. Unless Big Z wants to grab a bat and get some pinch hit at bats I doubt the Mets will chase him hard. If he becomes a free agent that may be a different story, but with his declining velocity and increasing bad clubhouse mannerisms the Mets won't give up any worthwhile prospects for him.

[ptk420biatch]

Did you watch the game today?I dont buy the declining velocity seeing how he was hitting 94-97 till he came out of the game, nor do I feel his best days are behind him. Like the article said, the cubs will be in the race till the end, and Zambrano has clearly stated that he wants to be in chicago. So unless a team comes up with a offer the cubs cant refuse dont expect to get him. The cubs will resign him, I am confident.

[nrmax88]

As of RIGHT now, I dont see the Mets giving up much at all for Zambrano, or any other pitcher unless there is an injury. We could use Zambranos bat in the lineup though as our offense has been pathetic for a couple of weeks. But the Mets starters have been awesome and they havent had a starter allow more then 3 ER in the last 13 starts. In their last 21 games, they are 13-0 when scoring more then 3 runs, and 0-8 when scoring less then 3 runs. Pedro's rehab is also coming along well. El duque will miss another month at some point, which is fine, you just hope he is healthy when playoff time comes. If anything the Mets can use some bullpen help because Heilman is unreliable, and Schoeneweiss is awful. It just came out today Schoeneweiss has a severed tendon in his leg. Feliciano and Smith are solid, and Mota should be good, but I wouldnt mind having another arm in the pen. Outfielders are dropping like flies also.

[touchmymonkey]

Only Mets/Cubs trade I see might be Murton or Jones for Heilman. Hopefully Jones as next year I would love to see cubs go with 4 OF'ers Sori, Murton,Pie, Pagan. Unless of course we can send out a P and murton/Pagan for Salty.

[DentalPlan]

The above post makes Cubs fans look like they have absolutely no clue. I guarantee even though I'm already doing it like four other people are going to rip into that ridiculous trade proposal.

The Cubs don't have enough to get Saltalamacchia. *Maybe* they could get him for Felix Pie and Carlos Marmol. But even that, I doubt. So when you say "Murton and a pitcher for Saltalamacchia" you are waving a gigantic flag and screaming "Look at me, I have no idea what I'm talking about."

All Cubs fans should take note: No one outside of your organization thinks anything of Murton, Theriot, Jacque Jones, or Pagan. We know you think they're All-Stars. They're not. You can't get crap for them. Stop bringing him up in trades.

Second, the Cubs won't trade Zambrano for less than what they could get in two draft picks. The Mets will finish with a good record, so they're probably looking at the 25th pick in the first round, and a high pick in the supplemental, like 35th. So Mets fans, this "Philip Humber (note to Mets fans - when he's not injured, he sucks, get over it, nowhere cares about him) and Guillermo Mota" proposals aren't going to get it done.

You have to be able to beat the package of picks #25 and #35 in next year's draft because that's basically what the Cubs would get if their negotiations with Zambrano failed.

[Teetz]

Given the Mets pitchers eventual regression and Zambrano's progression to the mean, I'd say it's a good bet Zambrano outpitches every Met starter from here on out and he will outperform at least one or two of them by a wide margin. Obviously, the Mets would LOVE to have him; however, the Cubs will most likely be in the race the whole season.

[touchmymonkey]

Please forgive me DentalPlan as I obviously did not make my post clear enough. I don't see cubs trading Zambrano. I don't see Murton and Pagan as Allstars - best case decent players - but since Mets OF's are dropping like flies ( yes i know alou and green are due back shortly) the only met cubs trade I could foresee would be and one of our outfielders for one of there RP - most likely Heilman since he seems to have fallen out of favor with fans and is not doing lights out type pitching. I like Murton and Pagan as solid decent players - young, cheap with some skills. I have no problem keeping both but would part with both if it brought us a Salty. I understand that it would take more than both to get salty - quite possibly a Hill or a Marshall and or Marmol. Even that might not do it. If you reread my post I do not mention any of them being allstars or us getting more than what they are worth. They are average - but sometimes several average players will snag you a prospect. I will try to use smaller words and be clearer in my thoughts next time. Sorry I did not meet your baseball intellect standards.

[Aduncaroo]

Dental,
Again, you are taking it way to far. There are organizations that think something of Murton and Pagan. Acutally, I know for a fact that the Marlins were debating a trade to get Pagan to play center for them. So you are wrong...pretty much dead wrong.

You are right about Jones, no one cares about him. They still might be able to trade him though...but they are going to have to eat some of the contract.

It is going to take too much to get Zambrano for any team to do it...except...thing about it this way. The Mets might as well offer something at least of as much value as their top 2 picks if they plan to sign him anyway next year, because they are going to lose them if they do. So, lets say you offer something of or near the same value, and then throw in another player to get him earlier. That would be their thinking. The Cubs are going to have to be out of the race by 15 games unless someone blows them away.

[Aduncaroo]

And, even if someone trades for him as a rental, aren't they guaranteed the two draft picks as compensation as well? That makes him as a rental much more valuable.

[coolpapabell]

Zambrano can stay on the Cubs this year for all I care. I would rather have him in free agency, if he becomes availible. Hmmm....I wonder how long it would take for the tribune to sell the team? I hope not too long this off-season, that might preclude Hednry from making any big expenditures. Spending a full year on a sinking ship mighty increase Zambrano's desire to be on a winner for the next five years, i.e. los Mets.

[nrmax88]

"Given the Mets pitchers eventual regression and Zambrano's progression to the mean, I'd say it's a good bet Zambrano outpitches every Met starter from here on out and he will outperform at least one or two of them by a wide margin. Obviously, the Mets would LOVE to have him; however, the Cubs will most likely be in the race the whole season."

Which is why the Mets will wait until he is a free agent and then look into it. Their not going to give up any future parts for a guy who is going to be on the market in a couple months, is struggling right now, and the Mets pitching has been fine right now, and Pedro will be back in august. If you think the Cubs will be in the race all year, then thats another story. Maybe if no team is above 500 they will be in the race, but like most people told you in the offseason, the cubs spent all of that money and they still just arent very good. They are a terrible fundamentals team, their bullpen stinks, and they have no scary left handed bats. The brewers were sliding like crazy and still have a big lead.

[DentalPlan]

It was a fact the Marlins were interested in Pagan? Prove it. And even if you can, it means nothing, the Marlins were looking at every crap center fielder around in the past few years. Joey Gathright, oh my, being included in that class, incredible.

Anyway, for all the talk about Zambrano struggling, he's doing well on the road, and struggling and doing poorly at home. Do the Mets play their home games at Wrigley Field or something?

I don't think the Mets have enough to get to win the World Series this year without a big pitcher like a Zambrano. So they can be stubborn and hang on to prospects they'll probably not even use and not go all the way, but it doesn't make sense to me. I'd do the trade. They have a surplus of outfield prospects. Why hang on to them too long if you can make a run this year? I wouldn't part with Fernando Martinez, but I'd ship off Carlos Gomez. The Mets already waited too long on Lastings Milledge, his stock is nothing compared to what it was.

[nrmax88]

"The Mets already waited too long on Lastings Milledge"

Funny, a players trade stock only matters when the team plans on trading him. If they plan on keeping him around, it doesnt matter much. The Mets probably arent good enough to win the world series this year, the way they are playing right now anyway, but that has nothing to do with lack of starting pitching. They are still pretty much the best team in the league. You could argue the Braves or Brewers are the best, but it wouldnt be a very strong arguement. They have lost 4 in a row, and still have the leagues best record. They have gone most of the season without their ace, setup man, starting left fielder, starting second baseman, and el duque. They have also sustained dreadful long slumps from Wright and Delgado. They havent evem come close to clicking on all cylinders yet. What are the Mets going to do with their rotation if they add Zambrano, send down Maine or Perez? They way they have pitched, I doubt it.
If there is something the Mets can use, it is another solid bullpen arm or a big bat like Tony Clarke off the bench.

"I'd do the trade"

Well you have to be a little more specific then that. Would you do it for Humber and Heilman? Sure. For Milledge Pelfrey and Heilman? Maybe not. The Mets arent giving up pieces of the future for an upcoming free agent who will be available in a few months just to make a run at the world series when we have as good a chance as anyone to make it there. They didnt do it for Zito or Schmidt, dont expect it to happen now.

[this old cub]

Met fans are forgetting your GM has man love for Big Z.

[DentalPlan]

Milledge has regressed since this time last year, and there have been opportunities for him to play when healthy, and the Mets haven't utilized him.

Yeah, the Mets didn't give up Milledge for another pitcher, and I don't recall seeing them as the World Series champions anyway. I appreciate not trading good prospects for crap, but give me a break, this "hold on to every prospect with a death's grip" attitude is nearly as bad as "Give 'em all away." The Mets already have a good looking outfield for the future, a guy like Carlos Gomez is expendable to them. This is the same mistake that Bill Stoneman made - he had way more prospects than he could ever put on a field, he refused to trade any of them for a bat, and now most of them have faded. The Mets have maybe the best foreign scouting department in all of baseball, they can sign 3 more Carlos Gomezes before this decade is over. So this "We won't trade anyone who looks to be any good at all" tough guy posturing doesn't make sense to me. You have a chance at the ring with the Mets resources, you grab it.

It's odd how Mets fans think they have four outfield positions - how do you plan on playing Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Milledge, and Beltran all at once? And they won't acquire any free agents? Please. It's a waste.

[nrmax88]

Because uhh, why trade prospects for a guy who you can write a check too in a couple of months if you want to. They dont need zambrano this year. Next year with the possibilities of Glavine and El duque gone then it makes more sense. John Maine or Oliver Perez isnt getting sent to the minors, and their not going to use a 6 man staff.