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Stark's Latest

ESPN's Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it's chock full o' rumors.

  • Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash.  That source believes that there would be no market for him.  Personally, I don't buy it.  There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender.  And he did indicate he'd waive his no-trade clause.
  • Word is that the Mets wouldn't trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent - Mark Buehrle included.  Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
  • The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he's truly made available in a week or two.  Atlanta won't settle for a Mike Maroth type.  What would the Braves give up for Buehrle?  Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can.  Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
  • Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid.  It would help if he was healthy and hitting.  Ah, alliteration.
  • Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor.  He says the Braves aren't looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense.  Rightfully so.
  • The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets.  As if they needed more OBP. 

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That's stupid. If you want a great pitcher like Mark Buehrle you have to give up Lastings. As a Met fan, I want to give up Lastings to get some starting pitching around here. Last summer they had the same deal with the A's to get Zito (even though it would've probably been a bust anyway, but I still love Barry). Anyway, I think Carlos Gomez is a a lot better talent than Milledge. Mets needs to do deals, and even if that includes Milledge/Pelfrey. (BTW, Willis trade value is still high, but has to be a bit iffy after his forearm "injury" this week, right?)

A good prospect like Milledge for a rental like Buehrle? HELL NO on that one. I have my doubts that Alou ever plays for the Mets again. As soon as Milledge is recovered from his foot/leg injury, he starts in LF.

Alou and Green will both be gone next year. Gomez is FAR from being ready for the majors, and Endy isn't an everyday player. Milledge is the Mets starting LF next year. I don't give that up for a 3 month rental, especially when our starting pitching isn't the problem.

How the hell do you validate trading away Milledge for three months of a pitcher?

If he goes, they better get someone who'll be here at least two or three years.

I really like the Hatteberg to NY idea. Fits much, much better into the lineup than a no-hit, no-field guy like Hillenbrand.

What if the Braves make another small move of Thorman plus a prospect to TB for Carlos Pena then worry about trading for a pitcher but KEEP SALTY to play first next year when i think Pena,s contract is up

Isnt Pena still arbitration eligible.

not sure but we could use him just for this year and have him play LF next year if he can or trade him next year for pitching

not sure but we could use him just for this year and have him play LF next year if he can or trade him next year for pitching

You validate it because the Mets CANNOT win without another pitcher.
I laugh in horror at the prospect of Tom Glavine against an AL team in the world series, and John Maine aint the answer either. The Mets need another pitcher, its as simple as that. Without it, they cannot beat the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees, Angels, or Indians in a 7 game series.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was mentioned in this article. I'm suprised bravesbeat wasnt all up in arms because the corpse of Babe Ruth wasnt offered for Salty.

Give me Ollie, and two of Maine/El Duque/Glavine/Pedro PLUS Milledge ANY DAY over Buehrle (for 3 months), Ollie, and El Duque (since Glavine and Maine suck, right?)

Then it will be a short World Series when you face Bonderman, Verlander and Rogers

You are right. El Duque is a big game pitcher. The problem is, what happens in the 6th inning when hes out of gas? Mota?

Well I'll admit that some Brave fans think Salty is the savior of the team but to say the Mets shouldn't give up Lastings but that the Braves should give up Salty doesn't make any sense. Lastings plays for a NY team which the media hypes up ALL of their players. So the fact that Salty is getting more attention means he deserves some credit and is a true talent. In my mind, it isn’t smart for any team to trade away a player with his talent for a rental (especially for only a couple of months).

Would it help the Braves? Certianly!

Would it help the Braves reach the post season? Perhaps.

Would it help the Braves win the WS? Probably not.

All we have to do is make it to the post season and we have a shot with Smoltz and Hudson going 2 times a piece. At least when we traded for JD Drew, we had him for the whole season. You can make jokes at the Braves fans all you want for falling in love with the idea of Salty in the middle of this lineup all you want but he has played as well as anyone short of Pence that has been called up this season. The Astros need help, I don’t see Pence’s name being dropped.

Mark Buerhle is probably one of the most overrated pitchers out there.

Gives up a lot of HRs, doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, average WHIP (this year's is artificially lowered by his no-hitter) and has a high opponent OPS over his career (.737 vs RHB and .695 vs. LHB).

What's the benefit to starting him?

If you're questioning the stamina of players like Glavine, Duque and Pedro, then why not solve that dilemma by suggesting a trade for a reliever?

By stating: "You are right. El Duque is a big game pitcher. The problem is, what happens in the 6th inning when hes out of gas? Mota?"

Acquiring Buerhle doesn't mean Duque won't pitch, so this problem will occur anyway.

They should just use Milledge to try to get some young outfield help (would Nick Markakis be available to them once a new coach is chosen?) and/or some relief help to assist Billy Wagner, Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman (whose numbers are deceiving...his WHIP is actually really good).

Why trade Markakis who has made it for Milledge who hasn't? A kid with attitude problems for a kid who doesn't? Milledge may have a high ceiling but they don't need a trade like that. It may be to early to write a kid like Milledge off but that doesn't make to much sense to me for O's.

No question that the Mets should acquire a reliever. But whether or not Buerhle is overrated or not is totally irrelevant. The Mets need another starter, and I don't think many will disagree that Buerhle is the best available.
If you don't go after him, the BRAVES LIKELY WILL. Milledge may very well pan out, but Buerhle already has a ring, and at some point, you have to take that risk.

So as a follow-up, what if Kenny Williams calls Omar and says, I'm either trading Buerhle for Salty or Milledge, your choice. Do you let him move into your division?

JFish:

Regarding Markakis, I didn't mean a one-for-one deal. I was just expressing interest in seeing if anyone else thought that he'd be available in a deal. I think that a package could get a deal done or even a three way trade involving Texas where Texaira is involved.

Beau:

I think that the evaluation of Buerhle is totally relevant. Especially when you're using hyperbole that Buerhle is the best available pitcher.
I'd rather take my chances with the return of Pedro Martinez than waste Milledge on Buerhle's services.

At least dangle Milledge in the off-season so that your receive a better return.

The only way I want Mark Buehrle is if the braves could get him to agree to an extension. If that cannot happen, you can count salty out of going to the white sox for mark, it just does not make any sense at all. If it would cost us lillibridge, I could see that because kelly johnson has established himself as our second baseman, and we may actually try to extend renteria. Brandon Jones is an interesting possibility to go for Buehrle, but again it just does not make too much sense to trade away for Buehrle for just a two month rental. But, if we want to go that direction, my best guess is we should try to trade away one of our older middle infield prospects, escobar or lillibridge. And I still would not at all mind one of those two for noah lowry, but it does not look like the giants would do that. And Brain, just quit. You proved your own ignorance by yourself, and I just took the liberty to highlight it. You are the one who wants salty so bad, remember.

"You can make jokes at the Braves fans all you want for falling in love with the idea of Salty in the middle of this lineup all you want but he has played as well as anyone short of Pence that has been called up this season."

Come on. The guy has had 69 at bats. In the same boat, Cubs fans should be dubbing Mike Fontenot as the next Ryne Sandberg.

As bravesbeast alluded to, it's funny that so many people are quick to question the excitement Braves fans have for Salty but at the same time are so quick to throw him into any rumor what so ever. I don't think there is a team in baseball that wouldn't like the idea of having him on their roster. I'm not ready to crown him team MVP or anything but I can see him being a charismatic, exciting addition to a Braves team that lacks both of those qualities. He is an ok ball player to. ;)

ok, as I have pointed out in another thread I AM NOT A BRAVES FAN; but I have to question this...

One thread, one trade proposal said to be insane...
Marshall/Murton for Salty
... turns into "every Braves Fan thinks he's the second coming"?

What is up with people... Marshall for Salty is a horrible trade for the Braves, and just because Braves fans didn’t drool all over themselves for the change to get an often injured, over producing projected 3-4 starter, you claim they are unrealistic in their proposals?

75 PAs matching his projections almost perfectly, currently 5th on team in BA, OBP, SLG… Yep, he's obviously Alex Cole reincarnated into a catcher and the Braves should consider themselves lucky to get J.Jones for him...


Yep, yep, yep… stupid Braves fans, what are they thinking expecting more than a throw away 4th OFer and injury prone 3rd starter with 5 unusual starts…

This Buehrle bashing is a bit ridiculous:

A) "Gives up a lot of HRs"

Yes, he was 2nd in HR allowed last season (36) and t-8th in 2004 (33), but he was out of the top 30 in both 2005 (20) and 2003 (22). As for this year, he's t-37th (11).

B) "doesn't strike out a lot of hitters"

Sure, his K/9 is weak, but his K/BB has been solid for a while now (with the noteable exception of 2006) and you don't need to be a strikeout machine to be a very effective pitcher.

C) "average WHIP (this year's is artificially lowered by his no-hitter)"

His career WHIP of 1.25 is nothing to sneeze at; it would rank as the 38th best this season and his actual 1.09 figure for the year slots him in at 9th so far in 2007. By the way, there may never have been a more absurd statement than to say that a no-hitter "artifically" impacted anyone's stats; the guy earned that no-hitter and it highlights his ability, it doesn't cheapen his numbers.

D) "high opponent OPS over his career (.737 vs RHB and .695 vs. LHB)."

Here's a list of the starters that are within ten ranks (either above or below) Buehrle and his .693 opponents OPS this season are: Bedard, Burnett, Sabathia, Lincecum, Halladay, Oswalt, Pettite and Matzusaka. Those last six actually ranked below him.

All in all, he looks to be a 1/2 type SP who has been extraordinarily healthy, has a World Series ring on his finger and is, without a doubt, the best starter available on the trade market this season. He's certainly more valuable than Milledge is at this point and, if a contract extension could be worked out, his value should be about that of Salty. Say what you want about the kid, but he's a top 20 prospect in baseball and he could well be one of the top 5 catchers at the ML level before he turns 25. I'd be more than happy to package Lillibridge and one of our young, MiL pitchers for Buehrle at this point. Not only should the Mets go after him for their own sake, but to keep him away from a division rival as has been written here already. Really, Mets fans shouldn't be so dismissive about him and neither should Braves fans. Sure Smoltz and Huddy give us a decent shot in the playoffs, but adding Buehrle significantly improves our chances. I say it takes us from pretenders to contenders, actually.

As for his impending free agency, he has stated that he wants to be a Cardinal and they could certainly use him, but they won't have money coming off the books there, so the signing would likely push them over $100M in payroll and likely over their budget. He's also said that he'd like to remain a WhiteSock for his entire career, but that seems extremely unlinely at this point and I doubt that he ends the season in their uniform. He'll garner a long term contract for plenty of cash, but it won't be as bad as Zito's deal and he seems more inclined to accept a discount to be somewhere he likes.

The thing to remember, and there is no doubt many of yall already know this, is that salty is a very talented prospect at a very premium position. This means that not only is salty's trade value fueled by his talent, but by the fact that teams' need. Salty probably will give the production of a mid tier third baseman for most of his career, but that production will give him a top 5 catcher status, so that means in team's pursuit his value inflates. That is why I think so highly of him, and also because if we just start him at first everyday, I think the braves would improve. That is why i am so high on salty. Since we already have a good young catcher, I should want him to be traded, but since he can play somewhere else, I think that exceeds his value even further. It just does make sense for the braves to trade away a guy whom they can control over the next 5 full years for a two month rental. A Mark Buehrle move may help make the playoffs, but i still do not know if that makes us a series contender. It would just take an extension, since burhele is proven, and as many of you have eluded too, salty is far from proven. It just makes sense to pursue something proven that we can have over the span as we could have salty, but it does not make sense for us to give up salty just for this years rental. The braves will trade salty if they think the bounty they get will help us now and in the future more than salty will, as is obvious with any prospect trade. And with thorman struggling and mccann just getting back to health, salty is more valuable than ever. If we get burhele for 5 years at 60 mill or so, that is fine, consider salty then. But in any other case, we should definately only offer escobar and liilbridge as the prize prospect, as we would then be dealing from a position of strength, something any team wants to do. So yes salty may be overvalued, but that can be attributed to the braves current roster and injuries as much as it can personal opinion.

EJRuiz:

a) "Yes, he was 2nd in HR allowed last season (36) and t-8th in 2004 (33), but he was out of the top 30 in both 2005 (20) and 2003 (22). As for this year, he's t-37th (11)."

And that shows that he gives up a lot of HR's. How does that disprove that?

B) "Sure, his K/9 is weak, but his K/BB has been solid for a while now (with the noteable exception of 2006) and you don't need to be a strikeout machine to be a very effective pitcher."

Nobody's saying that you need to be a strikeout machine to be a very effective pitcher. But he doesn't exactly do anything else spectacularly to overcome that deficiency.

C) "His career WHIP of 1.25 is nothing to sneeze at; it would rank as the 38th best this season"

And it's nothing special either. It's average and can be found elsewhere on the market for a much lower investment. Especially for a three-month rental

C}"and his actual 1.09 figure for the year slots him in at 9th so far in 2007. By the way, there may never have been a more absurd statement than to say that a no-hitter "artifically" impacted anyone's stats; the guy earned that no-hitter and it highlights his ability, it doesn't cheapen his numbers."

Sure it does because it's not the norm, nor what you can expect from him for the whole season. You CAN exclude it because it's affecting his overall WHIP drastically due to it being so early in the season. Just like Jack Cust's OPS is still so high despite having his slump.

At the end of the season, you can be sure to see Buerhle's WHIP drop back closer to the norm.

D) "Here's a list of the starters that are within ten ranks (either above or below) Buehrle and his .693 opponents OPS this season are: Bedard, Burnett, Sabathia, Lincecum, Halladay, Oswalt, Pettite and Matzusaka. Those last six actually ranked below him."

And what does that disprove? They all have high OPS's too. Sabathia's given up 25 doubles and 12 HRs on the year.

D)"All in all, he looks to be a 1/2 type SP who has been extraordinarily healthy, has a World Series ring on his finger and is, without a doubt, the best starter available on the trade market this season."

Considering he doesn't put up ace numbers, you'd be hard-pressed to find any team that would make him their #1 starter. Even a #2 job is laughable considering he can't beat out people like Jose Contreras and Jon Garland for the role on his own team.

E) "He's certainly more valuable than Milledge is at this point and, if a contract extension could be worked out, his value should be about that of Salty."

And a contract extension isn't an option and he probably won't agree to one upon his trade.

Trading a top level prospect for a rental is just bad management.

no need for more willis for milledge rumors fish have repeatedly said they arent interested in milledge and willis isnt for trade If he goes he would go west coast in the AL (like seattle).

Not to the mets whom we are only 4.5 behind


and he pitches this weekend again and is fine according to him and the fish. Goes against Johan should be fun to see

jza-
HE PITCHES IN US CELLULAR FIELD. of course hes going to give up a lot of homers! that is quite possibly the most worthless statistic i have ever seen.

Beau:

That would mean something if he didn't have such a high Slugging Percentage on the road as well.

lmao. Milledge isn't all he's cracked up to be in the first place. His defense was awful last year, (altho I'm sure he's improved somewhat in the minors), his attitude has been a problem ("Know your place, Rook!"), along with his past, and the whole T-Milz or whatever he calls himself, and add in that he's been hurt with sprained ligaments, that you could trade and get value from. I think Carlos Gomez is the one you don't give up, and Lastings is the one you can trade. Sure, Burhele may end up being a 3 month rental, but if that 3 month rental is going to help the Mets reach the post season and into the world series, I don't think we'll have any Met fans complaining about that. As for Green/Alou being gone next year, there's always free agents to start in one of the corner outfields, with Gomez being a starter. There's also the possibility of Fernando Martinez, I just don't know how far along he is, or if we will see him at all this year or next.

Gomez starting next year? I'm sorry, but do you WATCH the Mets? Gomez has a bright future, but right now, he belongs NOWHERE near an ML roster. He's been in more 0-2 counts than anyone else in the league. His defense is ok, but Milledge could give us that.

Milledge has an attitude problem.... I LOVE hearing that. Are you in the clubhouse? Do you know what goes on? No, you don't. He's 22 years old... a kid. Because some aging veterans decided to put on a sign on his locker... that means he has an attitude problem? Or is it because he likes rap music and decided to rap on a friend's track? You refer to "his past"... do you mean the time he had consensual sex with a girl a year younger than him? Wow... what a horrible person.

This "attitude" problem is a total joke. Elijah Dukes has an attitude problem. Lastings is an angel compared to him.

To send him away for a few months of a decent, not great, pitcher, who is guaranteed to leave at the end of the season would be a travesty. I would much rather lose in the first or second round with Milledge on my team than go out in the WS with Buehrle.

Buehrle would be a upgrade for the Braves over Chuck James, Davies, Carlyle, Cormier, Villarreal, Lerew, and the rest of the Richmond pitchers they could call up & give each a spot start. Also, that 1 kid from Mississippi, Matt Harrison. He'll be ready by next season I hope. After Smoltz & Hudson, the Braves rotation is pathetic. How they are still only 1.5 games behind the Mets is beyond amazing. A Buehrle for Andruw swap would make sense. Perhaps the WhiteSox can then try to sign Andruw to a long term deal. Braves would only be renting Buehrle, but since Andruw leaves after the season, Wickman won't be resigned, Edgar could possibly be moved to make room for Brent Lillibridge, Elvis Andrus, or maybe even Yunel Escobar. Atlanta will have some $$$ freed up. Locking up McCann was a smart move. I hope they do the same with Francoeur.

Fernando Martinez is still two years away IMO.

Gomez is still a bit too green and unpolished to start next year as well. I think he's got to get some more time in New Orleans or at least as a fourth or fifth outfielder. His OBP needs to get a bump before he gets everyday play.

Milledge is still valuable in this trade market and needs to bring back a better return. I understand what you meant that they need someone, but you're making a huge assumption in thinking that Buerhle is this magical savior that guarantees them the NL East and a long post-season run.

With the return of Pedro, the steadiness of Oliver Perez and John Maine, the surprising effectiveness of Jorge Sosa, and the veteran leadership of Tom Glavine and El Duque, they shouldn't be wasting a CF prospect on a starting pitcher that won't be here next season.

There ARE teams this offseason that are looking for cheap CF help (Marlins, White Sox, Twins, Athletics, Padres, etc) and probably won't be in the market for the high-end FA's who would be interested in Milledge.

I can see the Mets possibly parting ways with a package of Humber and a low level prospect to get Buerhle or Jason Jennings though, but I think they have more pressing needs like some corner OF help with the health issues of Moises Alou and Endy Chavez.

Prospects are all overhyped. Mets would be nuts to pass up trading for Buehrle, even if it ment trading Milledge. Its not very often you have a chance to go all the way. You have to win it when you have the chance.

How many prospects live up to their hype? 5%? 10%? I remember Todd VanPoppel was going to be the next Nolan Ryan.

lmao. chill out. you JerseyMetFan, don't embarrass jersey anymore than it already is.

a) buhrele isn't the end all answer to the mets making the world series, but the bottom line is they need starting pitching (first and foremost bullpen, i hope omar address that issue first before anything). if they can pick up a big name, by sending a low level proscept or even your boy Lastings, it could strengthen the bullpen by sending Sosa there (if he doesn't do what he did with the Braves last year), strengthen the starting pitching, and even help in post-season (and if I'm not mistaken, the White Soxs DID win the world series 2 years ago, so you're not getting a nobody if the trade went down)

b) carlos gomez probably isn't ready too start in the majors, granted, but he's showing now he can play on any everyday basis and have a great future. Nobody knows whats going on with Alou and Green won't be around for much longer, but Gomez is def. the future outfield for the Mets, whenever that is.


c) ..and you are in the clubhouse? so you know what goes on? it's like the pot calling the kettle black. please don't act all high and mighty around here, get over yourself. thanks. obviously the club and the management wasn't jumping up and down when hearing of the rap track, and i don't know him, i don't know if he's a nice person or not, i'm not saying that. i don't really care what he does with his freetime, i'm just saying, he's had a lot of controversy, that i think the mets aren't very pleased about.

Wow... a knock on Jersey... you are SOOOOOO original.

You're right... Buehrle isn't a nobody. However, three months of him is not worth YEARS of Milledge, and we aren't getting him for "a low level prospect". Thankfully, Omar doesn't plan on blowing his load and putting all his eggs in one basket. So if he goes balls out this year... then what? Buehrle walks, Milledge is gone, and we need two starting OFers, neither of which will be Gomez.

"carlos gomez probably isn't ready too start in the majors, granted, but he's showing now he can play on any everyday basis"

Yeah... he can play on an everyday basis... and suck. Just because we have him and Fmart in a few years, that doesn't make Milledge expendable now.

No, I'm not in the clubhouse either, but I never called him a nice guy. You said he had an attitude problem, and all I did was say you have no basis for that.

jza1218:

Allow me to do as you did and rebut your main points one by one.

"Considering [Buehrle] doesn't put up ace numbers, you'd be hard-pressed to find any team that would make him their #1 starter. Even a #2 job is laughable considering he can't beat out people like Jose Contreras and Jon Garland for the role on his own team."

Laughable??? He might not be the WhiteSox "ace", but he sure has pitched like it. He leads the team in QS (tied with Garland at 9), K/BB, ERA, and WHIP. He also has a higher K/9 than both Garland and Contreras.

Is Mark Buehrle a true ace? I don't think anyone believes that, but he's certainly a solid #2 starter and the stats bear that out.

"[his 1.25 career WHIP is] nothing special either. It's average and can be found elsewhere on the market for a much lower investment"

If you think a 1.25 WHIP is "average", you are living in the past... WAY in the past. Like I said earlier, that stat would place him 37th in baseball this season (his ERA would be 40th), which means that if all pitchers were placed in a real-world fantasy draft, he'd certainly be picked as a #2 starter by some team. Add in the facts that he's still only 28 years old, left-handed, the picture of health and a World Series champion and he could conceivably be picked as an ace for one of the 30 franchises in the league. By the way, his WHIP and ERA so far this season rank 9th and 32nd.

"But he doesn't exactly do anything else spectacularly to overcome [his poor-to-average K stats]."

Obviously he does do something to overcome, not only his low K numbers, but all of his flaws, because his resulting stats (i.e. ERA, WHIP, etc.) are very, VERY good.

"Sure [his no-hitter artificially improves his WHIP] because it's not the norm, nor what you can expect from him for the whole season. You CAN exclude it because it's affecting his overall WHIP drastically"

While I insist that your original comment and subsequent defense are lacking... at best, let's take your argument to it's logical conclusion. We'll ignore the no-hitter because it deviates from the norm, but that blade cuts both ways: let's get rid of his worse start, too. The "norm" for this guy is the quality start (and above average ones at that) because he posts one almost 70% of the time, so his numbers are still very, VERY good.

If you want to believe that Buehrle is a #3 starter at best, go ahead and by my guest; but I suggest you stick to the realm of the subjective on that because the stats just don't support your arguments. If you think that no team that trades for Buehrle has a chance of resigning him in the upcoming offseason (including the Mets, with their aging "aces", amazing line-up and unlimited budget) and that he's not worth trading a premium prospect for, then by all means, leave him to my Braves. Smoltz, Huddy and Buehrle... I'd put those three up against any trio around baseball in a seven game series and, with the Braves line-up, expect to win every time...

I just need to say that Salty is projected to ALWAYS be a below average defender as a catcher, never hit above .275, not hit more than 19 HR in the next 5 years...I could go on...but you get the point. He is a very good prospect, and yes, I would love to have him. But easy...you ALREADY have a better catcher, so his value to you is as a backup and a 1B....which with those numbers means he doesn't really mean a whole lot to Atlanta.

I still feel like Mets fans are dodging the big question here. How can you not give up Milledge for Buerhle if you know he is heading to the Braves? Now again, I'm not saying that I know this will happen, but if it does, do the Mets just stand by and let the Braves get better?

If I'm the Mets...I wait until the deadline and go after Zambrano and throw everything I can in the Cubs direction trying to get him. If not, go after Buerhle.

And yes, I think that Milledge is worth giving up...but thats just me.

I have no idea what the Mets will do but I am pretty certain that when the Sox do trade Buehrle that he'll bring more value than Milledge.

Also, whichever team trades for him will have increased their chances of making the playoffs and winning in the playoffs immensely.

Aduncroo, I have to disagree. While you probably accurate on his numbers, i personally think he could hit .280 with 20-25 homerun power in a few years, Salty still has great value to use on three accounts. The first is that Brain Mccann currently is just getting healthy, but over the past two years mccann has experienced a few injureies that have lingered. I am not at all saying this is going to be a career long problem, but it was just a couple of injuries that took time to heal. For this reason, mccann could use a few games off now and then, and with salty coming in and catching, there is not that far of a drop-off in terms of production. The second reason is the fact that the braves first baseman, when i saw at the first of this week have hit a combined .209, with 9 homers, and i believe 25 rbis, the worst production from that position in the majors. I think that salty would be a far more consistient producer that, and would hit better than thorman. However, thorman is heating up, and plays very good underrated defense. That may be the reason why salty is not playing first that often, but against lefties, salty will start more often. The third reason is that andruw is most likely going to be gone as a free agent, and salty will eventually find a place in our lineup because we will need his run production in the middle of the order. I can understand that you would a few of these reasons could be solved with a cheap vet, but why not go with a good prospect who will be cheap and will have a future with far more production as a middle of the order hitter. For these reasons, it is simple to understand why salty has a lot of value in Atlanta.

here is the thing bravesbeast....

You say his numbers will be better than even BP does...fine. I can't say you are wrong...even though they do.

While he may be good to give McCann a day off once in awhile....that doesn't make him that valuable.

While he may be able to play first against lefties and give you a .270ish batting average with average power at best for the position...that doesn't make him that valuable.

Even with the type of numbers that YOU are projecting, freakin Matt Murton could put those up for you in LF....AND you would be getting a solid SP for 6 years of league minimum type salary....

Salty is much more valuable elsewhere.

Well I guess we just have differing views, the fact remains the right now WE DO have salty, and unless we can find a bounty that will improve our team now and in the future more than salty could, you obviously cannot argue against us keeping, especially since finding a solid starter who we can guarantee we have over the next 5 years at about the same price as salty would is just not likely. I guess I cannot convince you, but I think it is pretty much common sense the braves should keep salty unless they are blown away with an offer, and mark Buerhle without a contract extension is just not a good enough offer.

I'm not saying he is....

"unless we can find a bounty that will improve our team now and in the future more than salty could"

That is what I'm trying to suggest....

Marshall and Murton\Pagan could arguably make you better both now AND in the future. IF, and I know its an if, Marshall is a #3 like this year is suggesting, AND Murton puts up better numbers than your current LF, (Murton is also signed for very cheap), than how does that not make your team better both now and in the future?

That has to mean more to you than a backup catcher and league average at best 1B.

Your Ifs show that your suggestion makes no sense at all. Right now, our matt diaz/ willie harris platoon has hit .330 and has a .400 on base pecentage on the year. While that is sure not to continue because of a major regression in terms of harris, that still is some pretty good production. If it comes to needing to play some one everday, matt diaz could probably do the job while hitting over .300 with 15 homer pop. And if we need another option, we have Brandon Jones as a top prospect in the minors who could probably produce on the same scale as murton or pagen, so murton nor pagen add any value to the braves. That means the trade would be Marshall for Salty, and that obviously makes no sense, because while Marshall is doing good right now, he probably will regress and put up numbers similar to chuch james by the end of the season. While that would be a improvment on our staff behind smoltz, hudson, and james, salty could get us a better and more proven bounty than Marshall. When I say we will only trade salty for a bounty that will improve now and in the future more than he could, that means will trade for someone who has proven success at the major league level. It just does not make sense to trade our best prospect for a bountry that we could probably do better than by just bringing up talent from our on system.

Thanks Ejruiz for setting that moron jza1218 straight... What a bunch of stupid arguments he makes. OF COURSE Buehrle would be a #2 starter on most teams... Especially in the NL and especially in the NL east... If you ask me, the NL east really only has 2 bonafide Aces - Cole Hamels and John Smoltz. Sorry Mets fans, Glavine, Maine, El Duque, Oliver Perez or Jorge Sosa are nowhere near Ace status... And jza, lets look at your ridiculous comments about the Mets pitching staff:

"With the return of Pedro, the steadiness of Oliver Perez and John Maine, the surprising effectiveness of Jorge Sosa, and the veteran leadership of Tom Glavine and El Duque, they shouldn't be wasting a CF prospect on a starting pitcher that won't be here next season."

First off, I am so sick of hearing about the "return of Pedro". The guy is coming off of a TORN rotator cuff; by far the most unpredictable injury to come back from... There is a good chance he doesn't make it back at all this season; and even if he does he may come back and only be able to throw 87 or 88 MPH. So stop giving me "once Pedro comes back"; I'm sick of hearing it cuz it's like a Braves fan saying "once Kyle Davies reaches his full potential...".

I will grant you that Oliver Perez and John Maine have been "steady" so far; steady #3's, THATS IT.

And the "veteran leadership" of Glavine and El Duque... Wow, what the f$%# does veteran leadership matter when your ERA is over 10 for a stretch of 5 games (Glavine); or when you are sidelined for 2-6 weeks 3-5 times a year with a bad back? (el duque)... And as far as Jorge Sosa - well, I will just let him do the talking for me over the rest of this season. If you think he's gonna give you 6-1, 2.50ERA every 10 starts you are in a dreamworld...

I will give you that all in all, with everyone healthy, the Mets rotation is not that bad. However, even with everyone healthy the Mets have (at best) a #2, 3 #3's, and a #5. So get over it and stop acting like the Mets don't need starting rotation help. The way you talk about them it would seem like the Mets were 10 games up in the division or something...

Bravesbeast great post at 12:22... Totally agree with everything you said. Marshall started hot last year too and then regressed badly. I think he ended the season with an ERA over 5 1/2. And Matt Murton? Are you kidding me? The Diaz/Harris platoon is getting waaaay better production than that guy could. A quality Left Fielder is no longer a need for the Braves...

Adun,

Here, let’s go real slow on this for a minute…

Atl has a great C and another Top Prospect C that projects to be probably better…

20 or so teams have below average catchers or platoons…

The TopProsC can fill other needs for the team and gets into games very often despite having little service time in the majors…

The TopProsC is already hitting at his projections now and of course projects to get better with age…

Although his value to Atl isn’t as high as his value to the Cubs and the other 20+ teams, it doesn’t mean you dump him for anything you can get. His ‘Return Value’ is actually extremely high because of the fact they don’t need to trade him… If they absolutely needed to trade him, why would teams offer as much? That would be foolish… Well, do they have to trade him? Not at all!

And extremely high return value does not equate to a 3rd starter and 4th OFer…

Marshall ~ Pitched very well for 5 games then lost it in his most recent (4IP, 5H, 4ER, 3BB), watching his ERA rise nearly .75 points. Track record includes questionable minor league stats, bad first year and very little in the way of projections. Injured in the last 4 years including 2 shoulder problems which have cost time over a 3 year span…

Murton ~ possibility for power with little to no showing on the big stage…

Pagan ~ no power and injury prone…

The three players you have mentioned would be throw-ins with an upper-level prospect to get a good return; not make a package themselves.


Now, PECOTA made their initial projections for this year as a 250/340/430 like line from Salty because, well he hadn’t produced at the majors yet. When a guy hasn’t shown his ability at the majors yet it’s tough to project a 5 year forecast ~ they can only take 06, make a 07 projection and build on it with the normal learning curve applied. After this years showing you should check their projections once again and see that they will be dramatically different. He currently projects to be something in the way of .270-.280 with 20-25HR and a very good BB rate. He’s already considered to be very polished with the bat despite his young age and is improving quite a bit on defense all the time. But like I said, just wait till after the season and see where his 5year forecast is…

As far as your offer of Marshall/Mutron goes, you may be able to get Hernandez from Balt for that. It would fill the Cubs needs and give Balt more fill-in players allowing them to move some more of the aging vets. They may actually need to include another prospect as well, or maybe replace Murton with someone with some upside, but a deal there could probably be had…

As far as Salty, IF he is traded he will go to a team for a Top pitcher (hence his name in the Buehrle thread as “if CHW can pry him away”) or for a Top Prospect at a different position. Why would anyone expect anything less? Why would Atl accept anything less? If they really did want guys like Marshall and Murton for some reason, they can trade spare parts or lesser prospects and get either them or comparable players from other teams.

Its about demand… Salty has a ton of demand around the league; most teams are looking for a prospect like him. Marshall really doesn’t have much demand, and why would he? Just incase he might be something special like he showed in 5 games before falling back to what we would expect? Its great when your teams players go on a hot streak and you can envision what they might turn out to be and all, but please don’t take those hot streaks to mean that you will be able to trade them for some of the most highly sought after players in the league.

Like everyone keeps telling you, it just doesn’t make sense to the Braves to make a deal like that with the Cubs...

I am not saying that his value is lessened as far as what he can bring to the Braves....

I am saying that he value TO THE BRAVES RIGHT NOW, as far as wins go, is not very high.

Would you rather have Buehrle for one year, or Marshall and Murton\Pagan for many at near the league minimum??????????????

You can argue which has more "value" with me any day.

Murton has performed at the majors...his career line shows he is a .300 hitter. Who is in LF right now for the Braves?

Pagan is assurance for CF for very cheap for years to come if Jones leaves....if Pagan doesn't do anything special, he is a very good switch hitting plus defending outfeilder who can play right, center, and left. Like I said, I understand what you are saying, and Salty is very valuable.

If JS can do better for now AND the future, he should do it NOW. Salty isn't that valuable to the Braves as anything but a great trading chip. I guess if you were shopping McCann....but you aren't.

Do you know why???? Because he is proven...and Salty is NOT. 25 games show very little, bottom line. If the Braves were that confidant in him being the next VMart...McCann out be out the damn door.


To respond to the others...

You may be right about Marshall...maybe he is a 5.5 era pitcher that just seems to start well every year. That is all I am saying that JS should look at....I think that if he actually scouted Marshall...he would see that he is a lot better than that.

While you might have gotten good production so far....I would argue that Murton is an upgrade and could be your regular in LF. You disagree...thats fine. I just think Murton is better than either of those and cheap for a long time.

I think that you are right...they can probably get more for Salty. If they can, they need to do it!!!!! They need a starter, not a backup catcher and 1B that plays against lefties.

Ok, so you think the Braves should trade him right now and accept scrubs in return for their Top Prospect just because they somewhat help the teams needs ever so slightly and they will have them for a couple years really cheap incase they are even worth keeping on the team tomorrow…

If Sean Marshall turns out to be a 5th starter at best and Murton is always the 4th OFer he looks like now than you consider that to be a good return for a top prospect just because they get those scrubs for the next 5 years? The Braves could call up guys from AAA and probably get the same results, but oh yeah I forgot that there is the ever so slim possibility that Marshall might actually do a little better than replacement level and work his way up to a 3rd starter and yeah paying the price of a Top Prospect is definitely worth a 3rd starter huh?

Yeah, I heard the Mets are going to trade Martinez for Paul Byrd, and the Cubs are going to trade Pie for Nate Robertson, and the Yankees are hoping for a return like Maguel Batista for Hughes, and the Angels were asking for Edwin Jackson for Brandon Wood and Kendry Morales but the Rays wanted Aybar as well so Anaheim is contemplating the offer…

If the Braves were that desperate for a starter like Marshall they would have brought in Maroth! Mike is actually a 4.25-4.75 ERA guy in the AL-C right now and is locked up cheap for two years who cost nothing more than a PTNL!

See how Maroth for a PTNL is a much better deal than your Top Prospect for Marshall?

Depends on what you think of Maroth's time in the Bigs (21 loss season!!!!!!!!) and Marshall's. Moroth is cheap for 2 years, Marshall for 6.

Again...I'm not saying trade them now...I said wait till the deadline and if Marshall is still pitching this way, and Salty isn't hitting as well....think about it. That is what i actually said.

I also said that if they get an offer with a better pitcher that is cheap for a long time, they should do it right away. They are better now AND in the future with a good starting pitcher than they would be with a backup Catcher and 1B that plays when lefties are on the mound.....


Thats what I said...not what you are saying I did.

Hey Darkstar...

What do you think about a Marshall and the #3 pick in the draft this year?

I said this earlier...but I don't remember where....

I think he is a 3B and LF...best hitter in the draft. You could even throw in Pagan or Murton in there....does that seem more even to you? I was never saying this was even...I just wanted everyone's thought. I definitely got them....but would this return be more worth it to you?

But why would they ever consider trading a Top Prospect for production they can get for a PTNL or by bringing someone up from the minors? That’s the point…

If they can get someone like Maroth who could provide similar results this year and next for nothing, why pay the Top Prospect just for the extra 3 years or so incase he is even worth it then.

With three years of shoulder problems can you tell us that Marshall will be pitching in 2 years? Wouldn’t it be smarter to sacrifice the “5 years at league minimum” if there is a good possibility you only get 2yrs of it anyway with the arm problems and keep your Top Prospect while trading a low level B-rate prospect for a guy like Maroth who has a much better track record in the majors, better recent numbers and who you still get for 2 years cheap?

Sure, maybe a cheap, serviceable starting pitcher is needed in Atl, but that doesn’t mean you ever start thinking of trading away top prospects because of it ~ even if you don’t have a extreme need for them. A good reliever is needed in Chi, are you willing to give up Pie for it since you don’t really need a .230/.280/.380 hitter in the OF if you are really thinking to compete? Ok, well a good RP pitcher then would have more value to the Cubs today than Pie so would you deal him for Joe Beimel?

And why in the world would you imply Maroth is no good because he lost 21 games? Do you think it could have anything to do with the worlds worst offense? Bonderman lost 19 games that year, does that mean he is a horrible pitcher too? Truth is he is a .500ish 4.25-4.75ERA guy in the AL-C locked up cheap for 2 years and that is worth a lot more than a guy with 5 good starts before a collapse in the 6th guy with mixed minor, major and projected stats who also has shoulder problems no matter how long and cheap he comes… He is only worth anything if he can perform over those 5 years, and there is really nothing that says he will be able to pitch, let alone put up stats good enough where you would want him to…

Again, you think they need to trade him like right away because you don’t think the production they are getting from his bat helps the team much… Ok, thanks for your opinion ~ but that doesn’t mean they need to trade him! He is helping the team!!! He is a Top Prospect!!! Their current catcher is coming off an injury still!!! They are in the playoff hunt and he’s one of their better hitters!!! And he has just been called up!!! Geeze, you act like he has been blocked and taking up space for years on the club and that they are just losing interest in him by having him put up really good numbers at the major league level…

It just doesn’t make sense for them to trade him when they need a bat like his, and definitely doesn’t make sense for them to trade him with their catcher just being off injury. IF they do trade him they never settle for something they could get for a PTNL... That’s it, what more can you say to that? Everyone has said it over and over again and it still doesn’t sink in? I’m glad you’re happy with Marshall, I know Salty would have more future with other teams; but taking that round peg and trying to make everyone believe it will fit into that square hole isn’t working…

And Adun, you can’t trade a player right after he has been drafted ~ I think you need to keep him for at least 10 months or so.

But even if they could, no... A player just drafted isn’t desirable as return at all ~ he's years away from ever possibly helping!

Like I said, Marshall would have to be a throw-in to a deal ~ not the main piece in a deal... Maybe a Zambrano and Marshall deal would possibly get it done if the Braves really felt that Marshall will stop having the shoulder problems that have plagued him, but that’s the same problem Woods has had so...

I just don’t see the Braves/Cubs matching up at all unless the Cubs offered Pie for Salty ~ and even then it might be tough to pull the trigger since Pie hasn’t shown anything but defense at the bigs and you can find Def minded CF with light bats real cheap on the FA market...

"Maybe a Zambrano and Marshall deal would possibly get it done"

I can no longer speak to you

Why not? You think that’s that unrealistic of a deal for the Braves to ask for?

I mean Zambrano has had problems on the field, off the field and is about to walk leaving the Cubs with nothing in return. That means he will bring very little return to Chicago ~ most teams wont trade for him because they can sign him in the offseason and those teams which would trade for him now wouldn’t offer the bank because of the off-year, the head-case mentality and the fact that Chicago would only be trading him to get some return… He’s been playing a little better as of late, but as a whole his “Value” is very low as far as trades go…

Marshall on the other hand is coming off questionable minor league numbers (where he put up a near 1/1 Eq BB/SO ratio in 3 of 4 of his last stops), a down right bad first years showing in the bigs, a rather uninspiring last start after the 5 good ones and history of shoulder problems… His “Value” in trade is very low as well…

Now I’m not saying its in the best interest for the Cubs to make the deal, but if they did trade Zambrano I cant see them getting a #1Prospect from anyone with the current situation as it is and if they did want to get something a little better they would need to add to it. Well, if we were talking about the Braves, SP is their biggest need ~ both this year and next ~ so it stands to reason that they would be asking for not only Zambrano but probably another arm which offers a bit more in the terms of possible “longterm”. Marshall isn’t that great of a bet for the future, but might be intriguing enough for them to pull the trigger…

Otherwise, what could the Cubs ever offer that would ever be of any interest to the Braves? Like I said Pie for Salty makes sense, but neither club would probably pull that trigger. Now since you are just trying to force a trade between the two clubs this probably would make the most sense from the Braves standpoint…

And before you say “you think you can get that for Salty” ~ remember that Roto doesn’t think that the WhiteSox would be able to pry him out of Atl with Burhle (meaning they would probably need to offer more than just Mark) and he comes with much less baggage than Big-Z…

Actually that is a pretty bad hypothetical trade deal. Cubs give their #1 and #5 for a rookie with 70 ABs? Z may have had problems a few weeks ago but he has looked as good as any other starter in the majors since. I’m not a very big Z supporter either since I feel it’s inevitable that he will have arm problems but there is no way that deal would happen. You can write 4-5 pages but you won’t be able to legitimize that one.

"I still feel like Mets fans are dodging the big question here. How can you not give up Milledge for Buerhle if you know he is heading to the Braves? Now again, I'm not saying that I know this will happen, but if it does, do the Mets just stand by and let the Braves get better?"

As a met fan, I can only speak for myself, but I think more then a few would agree with me. If it is costing the Braves Salty, for a 3 month rental of Beurlhe, then I am jumping for joy if the braves trade their top prospect for a guy that might possibly help them win a world series, if they even reach the playoffs. I am good with Pedro coming back. People can say he will never be the same, thats their opinion. I think he will be as good as he has ever been as a met, considering it will be the first time since he has starting pitching in NY that he hasnt had a torn rotator cuff. I also dont think Pedro would come back if he didnt think he could perform at a high level, he has to much pride. And at the end of the day, I am taking a fresh pedro going into the offseason over Buerhle, I am taking a pedro at 80 percent over Buerhle. If the braves have to give up Salty, it only makes the situation better.

"First off, I am so sick of hearing about the "return of Pedro". The guy is coming off of a TORN rotator cuff; by far the most unpredictable injury to come back from... There is a good chance he doesn't make it back at all this season; and even if he does he may come back and only be able to throw 87 or 88 MPH. So stop giving me "once Pedro comes back"; I'm sick of hearing it cuz it's like a Braves fan saying "once Kyle Davies reaches his full potential"

87 88 mph would be amazing. HE is actually expecting to be breaking 90, but 87 would be awesome, considering he was pretty much throwing his fastball at around 84/85 mph the last couple of years. There were times when he could pump it up to 90 when he needed a k, but mostly sitting at around 85. If pedro comes back throwing 88, watch out rest of the league.

Zambrano is pitching a little better lately? He has been pretty much the best pitcher in the majors for the last 4 starts....thats more than a little better.

Marshall had yet another very strong showing, shutting the White Sox down for 7 innnings....

And you are still really trying to say that a Zambrano AND Marshall deal makes any kind of sense to anyone???

If I were going for the 1 year rental SP...I would take Zambrano in a SECOND over Burhle...as I think most teams would.

Like the earlier poster said...it is just ludicrous for the Cubs to trade their Ace, AND the guy who has been their #2 since he has been called up, for a guy with 70 ABs....you can write a novel...but its still not going to cut it.

Ok, you may want to re-read my post because never did I say it was a good deal or try to explain why it makes so much sense or anything to the extent. I actually said it isn't in the Cubs best interest, that it would never happen and that its just more in line to what Atl might be wanting as far as return from that specific team for that specific player ~ a team I said they don't match up well with in a trade for Salty! I also said that I was only even bringing that up because you have been trying to almost force a trade of Salty to the Cubs.

So again, since it seems to be so hard for some to understand, I'm not saying Z & Sean for Salty, I'm not trying to say that is good for the Cubs and I'm not saying it will happen ~ I'm just saying that is much closer to realistic from the Braves perspective than Salty for Marshall. Marshall provides nothing to the Braves other than a cheap arm that might do ok, but will probably be hurt more than solid producer... He would be a throw in to a deal, not the center of one!

Oh, and just so you know, saying he shut down the White Sox for 7 doesn't really mean much. How many games has that team lost in pitiful fashion the last couple weeks? He's pitched near great this year ~ that does not create that much value though... He's still the guy who has missed time 3 straight years with rotator cuff tears... He's still the guy who has a questionable minor league track record... He's still the guy with the horrible showing last year... You should be getting the point by now...

And Zs season is redemed with 4 starts? Like I said he has been doing better lately, but who knows... Beurhle is actually a much safer bet, and one much more likely to stay with the team bringing him in. Add to it the postseason/ws exp and I think many more teams would rather have Mark than Carlos...

But whatever the case, Marshall + anyone short of a star or top prospect isn't getting close to bringing in the guy you keep insisting they give...

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