Best Option For Astros: Keep Jennings

I once thought Jason Jennings would be the best available starter at the trading deadline.  However, he was terrible last night.  He's really racking up the losses, even if some were undeserved.

With health and performance a major concern, I was wondering whether it would make more sense for the Astros to hang onto him this year, and take some draft picks if he leaves via free agency after the season.  So I asked ESPN's Keith Law whether Jennings would earn the Type A designation.  His reply:

"Almost certainly yes. It would mean the signing team's first-round pick (subject to the various rules on that) PLUS a sandwich pick."

Not too shabby, and I sincerely doubt the Astros would snag something better via trade this month.  So who's the best available starter? 

Assuming the Erik Bedard whispers weren't serious, I'd have to go with Bronson Arroyo.  Javier Vazquez doesn't really seem available, and Matt Morris and Jose Contreras just aren't good right now.  And I doubt any AL team would go after Arroyo.  The point many have been making bears repeating: the market for pitching is downright awful.  I wonder whether Billy Beane will take advantage of that and trade Joe Blanton for a king's ransom.

Comments

[buehrlebro]

Probably. But you have to wonder if the Stros can get something better. If they can't, keep him.

[WHIPit]

NO DOUBT the Astros should hang on to J.J. for picks. The trade of WillyT/Hirsh/Buccholz for his one season of "service" will still go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history, though.

If Cuban buys the Cubs, it's over for the Stros. Thank God the Rockets are making some great moves.

[WestCoastBias]

Here are some trades I'd love to see for the Astros:

Woody Williams & Mark Loretta for Chase Headley

Chad Qualls for Wily Mo Pena

Wandy Rodriguez, Dan Wheeler & Luke Scott for Noah Lowry

Jason Jennings for Jeff Clement

It'd definitely be worth it to collect a draft pick on Jennings but with the Mariners seemingly intent on bringing in a SP, I'd sweeten the deal in whatever way I could to bring over Jeff Clement, which would mean including a prospect along with Jennings. The future is bleak right now for the Astros at C...

[buehrlebro]

Two contracts for a prospect? No thx

Qualls for Pena? Sure

Wandy, Wheeler, and Scott for Lowry? The Stros get fleeced. A starter with better peripherals than Lowry, a decent middle reliever and an outfielder with power for a guy with bad walk and strike out ratios.

Jennings for Clement? Possible but unlikely. The Stros are hoping Ausmus and J.R. House can hold it down until Max Sapp develops.

[Darin]

Every single one of those trade proposals are absurd.

All of those trades are lopsided for the Astros. Except the Chad Qualls one which is lopsided for the Red Sox.

Wily Mo Pena is horrible. He's awful. He's Adam Dunn without the walks, which makes him useless. Wily Mo strikes out at one of the highest rates in baseball history, and he's a subpar defender (except in LF, where he's average). Actually if given a full season (which everyone for some reason thinks he deserves) he'd make Adam Dunn look like Tony Gwynn and smoke his K record by a mile.

The only way the Astros get anything along the lines of an impact prospect is they trade Lidge or Oswalt (who has a no-trade clause, so it won't be easy). Wheeler, Qualls, Loretta, Lamb, Burke, yada yada yada, aren't going to bring much back in return. Especially top prospects. I doubt the Padres would give up Headley's jock strap for Woody Williams.

[Darin]

Buehrlebro:
JR House plays for the Norfolk Tides...JR Towles is probably who you mean. If you do mean Towles, he's probably the catcher of the future as Sapp has been a bit of disappointment.

[Thundersticks]

Tim,

Keith Law mentioned in his article earlier this week that Joe Blanton might be available. Key word here being might. He would be the best SP available by far if he is. That is, like you said, assuming Bedard is not available.

[bravesrule14]

how could u say Willy Mo Pena is horrible and worthless. Willy has the potential to be a 40 HR hitter. last year when he got at bats he hit over .300 which shows sumthing. given the chance to play the whole year maybe as a DH then he could do some serious damage.

[boomshwa12]

i agree with bravesrule14, pena would make a pretty good dh. the rangers might be a good fit there. but i refuse to watch him and carlos lee play in the same outfield together. all they need is to throw berkman in center and they're the three stooges. pence may be superman for us right now, but sharing an outfield with those guys would be his kryptonite

[Darin]

Can I say that Eric Munson has potential? After all Wily Mo's logged amost 1/3 more ABs in the majors than Munson.

If you take a look at what Wily really did last year you'd see he had an awesome May and that was about it. April was ok, and September yielded a sub .400 slugging %. His OPS last year was a whopping .836, and he was on pace to K over 180 times had he logged over 600 Plate Appearances. The year Dunn K'd 195 times he put up a .957 OPS...huge difference. by the way, Adam Dunn was also 24 that year.

When I hear a player has potential to be a 40 homer guy for 5 years, yet all he does is strike out at an alarming rate and refuse to take a walk, I still couldn't get too excited even if Mo did hit 40 homers.

[Guitar Hero]

Hey roto, remember when you said at the beginning of season not to draft Chris Young? The guy is on a freaking acid trip where he's freakin walter johnson. 1.88 ERA so far 115 innings into the season. Like WTF?!

[Brian]

I get annoyed by Red Sox rumors. The Red Sox seem to want to trade their crap ass players for your all stars. I mean, why in the world would Atlanta trade Salty to Boston for Willy Mo? Why would the Astros send Lidge to Boston for Julian Tavarez? These are just 2 examples of what the Red Sox were supposedly offering to get these players at some point this season or during the offseason. I read earlier where they keep trying to trade Pena, Tavarez and B-level prospects for star players. This gets annoying. Other teams are not going to bow down and give you what you want just because you are the Red Sox and because ESPN worships you.

[mymrbig]

I've proposed various Astros trades on various sites (notably here and on Richard Justice's blog at the Houston Chronicle website). Anyway, suffice to say I am one Astros fan praying they make at least a few trades.

I agree that Jennings has been horrible lately and has lowered his value a good bit. Still, he has some value and I think the Astros might prefer to trade him if they can get a prospect, even if not a top prospect, who can help this year or next.

Here is what I think. I think the Astros need to hold onto 1 of their top 3 relief pitchers (Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls). I really wish they would trade Lidge. I think he is back to being dominant and will remain dominant next year. However, his value is pretty high right now, there is always the chance that he loses it again (where mental or mechanical), the need for relief pitching is high, the Astros' farm system is weak, the Astros are fairly budget constrained, and Lidge will be pretty expensive next year (final year of arbitration, I believe). I might not feel the same if Wheeler or Qualls had a ton of value, but since Wheeler's value is depressed, I don't think the Astros' should sell low.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Astros' should sell Lidge just for the sake of getting rid of him. I think they should only do so for a near-ML ready prospect. Otherwise, they might as well hold him to be a dominant closer next year and pick up the draft picks after 2008 if they can't re-sign.

Here are some options I would be happy to see. Not saying they could happen since everyone is overvaluing prospects these days, but they aren't totally ridiculous (i.e. asking for 2-3 ML ready players for 2 months of Alfonso Soriano or Salty for Arroyo). But if the Astros can't get someone along the line of one of these guys, I think they should hold Lidge. Still, the Astros might be able to bid these teams against each other to get what they want. Here are the targets: Adam Miller from Cleveland, Buchholz or Lester from Boston, Andrew Miller from Detroit (highly unlikely given how well he's pitched lately and the imminent return of Zumaya and Rodney), Carlos Carrasco + Bourn from Phillies.

If they don't trade Lidge, then I think they should go ahead and trade Wheeler if they can get an OK prospect. Maybe to the Braves for Lillibridge or the Dodgers for Meloan.

Because of Jennings decreased value, I think they need to package him with either Qualls, Loretta, or Lamb to a team with 2 needs. Here are some options:
(1) Jennings and Qualls to Dodgers for LaRoche. I think the Dodgers are a little down on LaRoche (though recent hot streak may change that) and Jennings and Qualls fill 2 stated needs for the Dodgers (7th inning guy and SP). Astros desperately need third baseman.
(2) Jennings and Lamb/Loretta to Phillies for Carrasco. Victorino would be nice, but I doubt the Phillies are that dumb. Bourn doesn't seem like he'd be quite enough. Phillies could use another option at 3rd and another SP.
(3) Jennings for Lillibridge. Lillibridge has fallen off from last year, but he supposedly plays solid defense and it would be hard to hit worse then Everett!
(4) Jennings and Qualls to the Mariners for good prospect. I wouldn't even suggest it, but the Mariners have a pretty poor GM. I'm thinking Wladimir Balentien since Jones is a better prospect. Clement would be another option.
(5) Jennings and Lamb/Loretta to the Padres for Chase Headley. Loretta is doing much better than Giles and Lamb could help against righties at 3rd. Headly could either play 3rd for the Astros or shift to 2nd if Burke can't handle it next year.

I also think the Astros should trade Wandy now. He's still cheap and a lefty, making him pretty attractive. Still, he has an EXTREMELY small margin for error and this is probably his career year (if he maintains current levels). Might as well sell while the selling is high and the market is desperate. Doubt and AL team would be stupid enough to think he'd survive over there, but the Astros should see what they can get from the Braves, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres. Hold him if no one offers up a top prospect, trade him if they can get a top prospect.

[darkstar1661]

boomshwa12 and Darin,
Great posts! Those two had me laughing in that “oh its so sad because its true” kinda way…

Brian,
Just wait out their huge demands and you can take advantage of them… They are also nice to sell your “here, isn’t this shinny” type players to ~ you know, the ones putting up way better numbers than they should be… How do you think they got stuck with Crisp, Pena and some other guys they are trying to dump, in the first place?

As for the Stros:

DPs are great if you take advantage of them. Teams like NY, Bos and Det willing to spend the high signing bonus get good bang for their buck for the most part… What does Houston do?

I think the safer thing to do would be trade what you got for more instant return though. You have guys like Oswalt and Lee locked up for good money and a bunch of years ~ you might not want to go into full-rebuild mode like that. Trading for guys more likely to help next year or the year after means you don’t have to spend that long away from the top ~ well if you do it right. Seems like their best bet, IMO atleast…

[boomshwa12]

the thing is idk if drayton mcclane would open the checkbook for some of the better prospects. he did it for patton a few years ago, but he also avoided it with drew stubbs before that. i agree w/ you about the draft picks, but the question is will mcclane be scared of spending too much to sign them

[CJ]

I think the draft pick decision making is more complicated for the Astros. If the Astros get a top 15 draft pick and then sign a Class A Free Agent (probably likely), the No. 1 pick is protected, and the Astros give up a later round picks(2d and 3d?). But if Jennings declines arbitration and that generates an unprotected 1st and 2d round pick, then the FA signing will cost the team a 1st/2d round pick rather than the later round draft pick. So, the GM has to make a number of assumptions to predict the consequences of a Jennings trade decision.

[Tim Dierkes]

Doesn't sound like Jennings is healthy at this point.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6477

[Darin]

Tim Purpura is quickly becoming one of the worst GMs in baseball.

[boomshwa12]

that's a pretty depressing article about jennings. that trade would have been bad enough if jennings had pitched well for a year and left, with the rockies getting good production from their players in the deal. but getting one win out of him before he craps out is nuts.

i feel really bad for carpernter though. he came back from all those injuries early in his career only to need tommy john surgery again. it's a shame b/c he's as good a person as he was a pitcher.

[seanbergmanrules]

Will Jennings really be a type A? He was a type B last year, and his number this season are pretty similiar to his '05 numbers. I believe Elias uses the past two seasons for determining ranking, so the only difference between this year and last is that his good season is now further in the past. I don't see how he would rise from the 31-50 percentile to the 1-20 percentile based on this year.