Brewers Trade For Scott Linebrink

According to MLB.com, the Brewers have acquired setup man Scott Linebrink for prospects Will Inman, Joe Thatcher, and Steve Garrison.  Let's take a look at this deal.

Linebrink turns 31 in early August.  Trade rumors swirled around him this offseason, especially involving the Phillies.  His strikeout and walk numbers over the past three seasons have been consistent.  However, in 2006 his less controllable numbers like hits allowed and home runs spiked somewhat.  He was still worth a good 3-4 wins last year according to Baseball Prospectus.

However, Linebrink fell off a cliff this year.  From Day 1 his strikeout rate has been way down; he's allowed a ton of home runs. You almost have to wonder whether he's healthy.  He got by for the first two months with the reduced strikeout rate, but it caught up to him in June and especially July.  Even as a seventh inning guy his value is very questionable.  The Crew should recoup a draft pick or two when he leaves after the season, so that's something. 

My trusty Baseball America Handbook tells me that 20 year-old righty Inman is clearly the jewel of the trade.  He's a tough competitor; his 1.71 ERA in Low A ball last year was ridiculous.  He does not offer dazzling stuff or projectability, however.  He succeeds on the strength of his command and breaking stuff rather than velocity.  He breezed through High A this year, posting a 1.72 ERA in 13 starts. 

However, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein questioned how his "below-average stuff and elite-level command" would play at Double A.  The results in his first eight starts at that level have been mixed at best.  He's taken a couple of shellackings, but has looked solid in his last three efforts.  Goldstein wonders whether he may be a Yusmeiro Petit type, a guy who used deception to post some great minor league numbers despite mediocre stuff.  Petit fooled the Marlins enough for the Mets to snag Carlos Delgado, at least.

Inman is very young for Double A; put him in PETCO in 2009 and I don't see why he can't keep his ERA under 5.  Doesn't blow you away but innings eaters are fetching $8MM annually these days.  Great move by Kevin Towers, because he won't miss Linebrink.  He can't lose.

Didn't know much about the other two prospects.  Thatcher is a 25 year-old southpaw reliever, another guy with average stuff.  The results have been excellent through Triple A though.  He's got a cut fastball, sweeping slider, and fine control.  He was ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America.

Garrison is a 21 year-old southpaw starter, ranked 27th on the Brewers' list.  He's working in High A currently.  He too has average stuff without great velocity, another command guy.  See a theme here?  The pitchers plucked by Kevin Towers don't light up radar guns or make scouts drool, but still look like big league contributors.

You have to give this one to Towers, who traded from a position of strength to snag three pitchers known less for projection than probability.

Comments

[bravesrule14]

like i said in the other post the Brewers got fleeced. Inman is their 3rd best prospect as said by Baseball America. Thatcher was 23rd and 27th. plus the fact that Inman and Garrison are only 20 yrs old and Thatcher is 25 for a 30 yr old that as been struggling of late and will be a Fa after the season. it seems Melvin was more unhappy about his relief core than i thought

[bravesrule14]

Garrison is 27th*

[ArodSucksAtLife]

and 2 draft picks.

[mymrbig]

Well, as great as Inman's stats have been, he does have a below-average fastball. I think it was pretty excessive, though trades like this are hard to judge. No saying Inman can succeed at higher levels, no saying whether Linebrink is the glue the Brewers need in the pen, no saying whether the draft picks the Brewers end up with are better then the prospects they gave up.

In a side note, why in the world weren't the Astros in on this action? The Astros have Qualls and Wheeler and a minor league system that is virtually barren and Inman (despite what I was saying above) is still a solid SP prospect, something the Astros need.

[baseballfiles]

This looks like a good deal for the Pads! We won't see these 3 new acquisitions on the mound this year though... so who takes Linebrink's spot in the bullpen?

[buehrlebro]

They just called up Hensley. Should eat some innings.

[striker]

So if Linebrink leaves via free agency, does Milwaukee get compensation draft picks? How does that work?

[WestCoastBias]

Bringing up Clay Hensley and demoting Terrmel Sledge this morning had to have been done with this trade in mind, even if it was all about the Young injury on the surface. With that said, Clay will most likely be taking his spot in the bullpen and I'm expecting a move to be made to bring in a new bat for the bench. Hillenbrand? McAnulty until Hillenbrand's ready?

[BeanoCook]

Last year Melvin got "fleeced" by the Rangers in the Lee/Cordero deal. Now it is clear Cordero was the best player in that trade and he was not a rental.

I think this trade is a win/win. The Brewers needed to add another quality arm in the 7th and 8th inning. The Pods had depth in the pen and their great need was farm system additions.

Inman, as good as his results have been, many scouts feel he is not going to make it. Tough to say, but so far since the promotion to AA, he has been getting hit rather hard. The Brewers already have a soft tossing RHP, C Villanevea, who did better in Double-A. In other words, there was not much room for Inman, he was expendable. Pitching in SD is the right place for him, good luck.

As for Thatcher and Garrison. Thatcher is nothing special and Garrison is an A ball version of Thatcher.

Finally, Linebrink splits show that he is actually better on the ROAD, over his career. Strangely, there is little in the way of trends when looking at his splits. Sample size is the reason his post AS break numbers look horrible. Cordero also sucked in weeks before joining Milwaukee last year. This is why you pay scouts the "big" money.

People fail to grasp how expensive middle relief arms are. This was a win/win deal.

[Thundersticks]

Difficult to say right now who got the better of this deal. If Linebrink turns it around and the Brewers end up being this year's Tigers, then it should be a win/win.

[WestCoastBias]

Anyone think there's a chance the Padres send Inman straight to AAA or will they let him continue to find his groove in AA? I'm just wondering what the possibility is of him becoming our #5 out of spring training next year.

[WestCoastBias]

I'm confident the Cubs will grab the NL Central. Linebrink's not what the Brewers need to turn their slumping offense around, experience is and the Brewers have a better shot next year when their players have matured.

This doesn't change my outlook on the NL playoffs:

New York Mets (1) v. Chicago Cubs (3)
San Diego Padres (2) v. Atlanta Braves (WC)

[WestCoastBias]

While I'm predicting:

Boston Red Sox (1) v. Los Angeles Angels (3)

Detroit Tigers (2) v. New York Yankees (WC)

I justify this as being related to the topic since the playoffs are what these trades are about anyway!

[BeanoCook]

To think of this trade another way, if the Brewers fail to sign Linebrink this offseason, they will get compensation.

Perhaps, a 2nd round pick and a player that is just as good as Inman and just as old too.

This really is a cost free way to replace C Spurling with a quality arm.

This will help in the World Series.

[Tim Dierkes]

Hey y'all, feel free to refresh the post to read my take.

[BeanoCook]

I agree Towers did well, but to throw Linebrink in the dumpster is pretty rash. The drop in a few metrics is cause for concern, but this is where you pay scouts to answer the question Why?

The Brewers have had a knack for getting that question right many times before under Melvin. Here my bet the Brewers have the answer and Linebrink will be a productive arm this postseason.

The draft picks only make this a cost free trade.

Win/Win!

[cianfroccofan]

im not a towers fan but the one thing i never question him on is picking up bullpen arms especially ones that aren't overpowering, thats exactly the type of pitcher the padres love. as a padre fan i like the trade, and hopefully all liney needs is a change of scenery to get back to form reminds me of coco.

[zubes007]

Horrible deal by Milwaukee, and I'm not even an Inman fan...Linebrink just isn't anything to write home about at this point...he's getting old, his K-rate is quite poor and is moving away from an extremely pitcher-friendly environment.

Inman is a fairly high-profile prospect...I have a hard time believing that the Brewers couldn't get a better reliever (Gagne, Dotel etc.) for him.

[ZachAttack]

This makes no sense for the Padres. I'm a huge Will Inman guy, and like the rest (or most) I haven't heard too much about the other guys, but don't the Padres need offense? I heard a stat the other day where the Padres had like five two hit games already this year - absurd. Maybe they should've traded Linebrink for Dye :)

So what's the future Padres rotation?

Peavy, Young, Hensley, Inman, Schmidt?

[Matt M]

"Petit fooled the Marlins enough for the Mets to snag Carlos Delgado, at least."

He also fooled the Cubs enough to shut them out for six innings on Sunday.

[DentalPlan]

Kevin Slowey was also supposed to be a guy whose stuff was too mediocre. Inman has had a great K rate and yeah, he's getting hit hard in Double A, but come on, he's 20, Michael Bowden has been hit hard in Double A at age 20 too.

Linebrink posted a 3.57 ERA pitching with San Diego last year - that's not fantastic considering the environment. Now he looks like he's really lost it. Linebrink does not stack up well against the proven AL relievers who have fetched high contracts in recent years like Speier and Howry; I don't anticipate the Brewers getting any high draft picks in return, especially when you can find relievers easily enough without coughing up a draft pick.

[IowaCubs]

Looks like the Brewers got hozed on this one, though it sort of makes since given the limited opportunities for even their best prospect pitchers to see action anytime soon.

Almost any other team in the bottom half of the NL would be starting Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra as a 5th starter. The Brewers can afford this.

It almost seems like the Brewers were dealing from the position of strength based on their depth.