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« Rangers To Pass On Bonds? | Main | Twins Interested In Jason Bay? »
Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals. Let's discuss.
Here's what I see happening this winter. The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy. I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement. Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won't have him back.
It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop. On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn't, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year. Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).
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Tejada? Wouldn't Tejada just add to the whole older-breaking-down-creaky-not-so-good-anymore thing the Cardinals seem to have going on?
If it were me, I'd get Renteria over Tejada any day.
Posted by: chris heer | October 02, 2007 at 08:16 PM
I see the Cardinals as the new Giants. One inner-circle Hall-of-Famer carries the team while the GM pretends to carry out a plan. Walt Jocketty's put together some good teams in the past, but is there anyone to get excited about, young or old, other than Pujols and Carpenter?
Seattle fans were all excited at the possibility of Jocketty and Larussa heading their way, but I think it's the Cardinal fans that should celebrate that possibility.
Posted by: Sky | October 02, 2007 at 08:44 PM
Has anybody considered that Edmonds may not come back? Or is that even a possibility?
I'd like to see what Duncan could do with Silva.
I'm not sure that I'd rather have Renteria over Tejeda, because Edgar isn't too far from the breaking down stage himself. Tejeda hasn't been to the NL, so maybe he it would spark his career?
Posted by: cardinalred24 | October 02, 2007 at 08:48 PM
If the Cards are interested in Tejada, they would probably have to give up a package starting with Colby Rasmus.
How many Cards fans would want to do that?
Posted by: kgosfan | October 02, 2007 at 08:49 PM
Tejada and Cash for Ryan, Duncan, and Reyes. Is that lopsided? Maybe 4 million to the Cards?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 02, 2007 at 09:07 PM
I don't think they have to give up Rasmus....and believe me, they absolutely will not.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 02, 2007 at 09:08 PM
No way they'd have to give up rasmus. I'd say reyes and a duncan should be enough. However, I don't think the cards will trade duncan so just something along those lines.
Posted by: greenbaydude1232 | October 02, 2007 at 09:33 PM
Trading Rasmus will set the Cards back for years. Tejada can't even play SS anymore and his power is falling apart rapidly. Have you noticed his power numbers have fallen apart since the new steroid testing. Maybe Palmeiro was right about Tejada.
Posted by: Bravesfanuc | October 02, 2007 at 10:07 PM
I don't get why everyone says the Cards will go get a power hitter...
AP - 35+
Ankiel 25+
Duncan 25+
Rolen 20+
Edmonds 15+
Ryan 10+
What they actually need is a leadoff type 2b or ss.
They probably should just keep Eck
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 10:24 PM
Ozzie, that's a pretty ridiculous thing to say. Joe Strauss is a good reporter, and Larry Borowski, not only runs one of the finest blogs on the net, but is also an accomplished writer. Neither of them are, "crack addicted retards." And what exactly makes you think Ryan will hit ten home runs, he has hit 11, since his sophomore year in college, total. That's five years combined, eleven, not eleven in a year. Saying things like that will make you look like a crack addicted retard.
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 02, 2007 at 10:47 PM
Ryan had 4 HRs in 190 ABs. So Give him an average of 500 ABs it projects out to 10
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:00 PM
Plus I stand by statements on both of them, Look at the statements made by them used for this topic. Power hitter is absolutely not a need of the Cards
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:01 PM
I'm not so sure that Ankiel can be penciled in for 25 home runs in 2008. Sure, he's a great story, but the minor league numbers aren't great, and the walk rate is a touch scary. I definitely think Tejada is a great buy low candidate, especially with him coming to the NL. Given the O's fetish for mediocre corner types (Gibbons, Millar, Huff, etc.), Duncan could certainly anchor a deal. It'll be interesting to see if Jocketty is willing to give a free agent contract this summer (if he's still there). He was very hesitant to pull the trigger on one this year, but there is definitely more of a sense of urgency under the Arch this year.
Posted by: saberscout | October 02, 2007 at 11:06 PM
Why trade Duncan for Tejada? Duncan gives the Cards more power at a fraction of the cost?
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:11 PM
Really, the cardinals finished with a .405 slg%, good for, get this, 24th in the bigs. Looks like they might need a little help in this department.
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 02, 2007 at 11:14 PM
Ok, Pujols was bothered by injuries on and off
Rolen was a loss for the season
duncan was hurt the entire 2nd half
edmonds was knicked up all season
ankiel was called up til the end of august
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:18 PM
Here watch this, Pittsburgh pirates are going to win the division. Really, Duffy can steal 50 bases, Bay can hit 35 HR, so can Laroache, nady's a lock for 20, sanchez, batista, paulino, Wilson all in double digits. Gorzelany, and snell are aces, maholm and duke have underperformed their perifrials, and Capps had a two something ERA and could get more saves given the opportunity.
See my point, Any team can win if they get max performance out of all their players for a year, even pittsburgh, but it so very rarely happens.
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 02, 2007 at 11:31 PM
I dont think I am exactly asking for a max performance.
that would be AP over 40, asking rolen and edmonds to play like they used to and asking ankiel to keep up his pace from this season. So not really a good comparison
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:33 PM
You're expecting everyone of the players named to increase their performance next season.A lot of teams would win if 6 of their position players performed at a higher level next year than this.
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 02, 2007 at 11:38 PM
Start by working a trade sending rolen to the angels for chone figgins
1B Pujols $16M
2B Kennedy $3.5M
3B Figgins $4.75M
SS Eckstein $5.5M
C Molina $1M
LF Duncan .75M
CF Edmonds $8M
RF Ankiel $.5M
P Carpenter $10.5M
P Looper $5.5M
P Wainwright $1M
P Mulder $6.5M
P Reyes $.5M
RP Flores $1M
RP $1M
RP $1.5M
RP $1.5M
RP $4M
RP Izzy $8M
B Encarnacion $6.5M
B Spezio $2.3M
B Taguchi $1.1M
B Bennett $1.5M
B Cairo $1.25M
B $2.5M
Total contracts $94M. I think if anything they need to get rid of rolen. Being under contract for 3 years should help get something back in return. even if it is only 1 years worth of chone figgins.
Posted by: integr96 | October 02, 2007 at 11:41 PM
well when basically every single starter missed time or played through significant injuries, its not that much to expect better performance. do you honestly expect Rolen to only have 8 HRs next season?
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:41 PM
Actually that 3 year contract is the reason Rolen is basically untradeable
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 02, 2007 at 11:42 PM
youth with experience is the key of the success for dismissing rolen, Eckstein, Edmonds, incarnation (not nor as they signed it) and Reyes (better than softbol played) and to go to equipment like marlins or milwakee or others to bring to players like jj hardy, Braun, goatherd, uggla but in fact not who is the one that is in charge to buy players to being very bad Kennedy please is necessary to be very desperate to let itself rob haci the money the point is that we must give another semblante to the equipment not as they dismissed suppan and to weaver many misfortunes had been saved
Posted by: xavi010789 | October 02, 2007 at 11:51 PM
Without the addition of an impact bat, the cardinals would be in the lower half of slugging in baseball again. A team that has a roster chalked full of chronically injured players and over the hill veterans does not generally get better with time. Don't believe me, ask the Giants
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 02, 2007 at 11:53 PM
because to inhale by matt clement or silva and wolf to even pitcher losing because not to give it everything by they johan Santana and roy halladay also I insist on the young players as a short field or third base or center field
Posted by: xavi010789 | October 02, 2007 at 11:59 PM
Hammonds I wish there was some way to make a wager on this with you. because i would bet any amount of money that without any addition, the cards slugging will go up next year significantly
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 03, 2007 at 12:00 AM
***I see the Cardinals as the new Giants. One inner-circle Hall-of-Famer carries the team while the GM pretends to carry out a plan. Walt Jocketty's put together some good teams in the past, but is there anyone to get excited about, young or old, other than Pujols and Carpenter?***
As far as players to get excited about? Wainwright, Top 10 pitcher in NL this year. Molina, Gold Glove defense figuring out how to hit MLB pitching. And we saw what Scott Rolen can do without the scar tissue bothering him in his shoulder. He went 100 ABs (a month) after getting a cortisone shot to increase the motion in his arm and posted .293/.333/.505/.838 OPS with Gold Glove defense.
Like the team he put together in 2004 and 2005 that won a combined 205 games? Those teams came after a broken down Cardinals team in 2003, that Jocketty retooled by trading for a young starter (Marquis), having a good starter return from extensive surgery (Carpenter) and rebuilding a bullpen that was the demise of the 2003 team.
And let's not fool ourselves, for as inept as the offense has been these last two seasons (2006 and 2007), a healthy Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder over those two seasons brings the Cardinals division titles in both years.
Should they expect anything out of either of those going forward? No. But coming into the 2006 season, should Jocketty have expected one of his Top 2 pitchers to suffer a massive shoulder injury? In 2007, should he have expected his ace to need TJ surgery?
The Cardinals will increase payroll and make adjustments to hopefully give them 'stability' in the rotation. This was a team that was 9 outs away from being in 1st place in the NL Central with less than a month to go with a 7 man rotation, a 3rd basemen who could barely move one arm, a LF with a sports hernia that kept him from being able to walk most days and a revolving door in the MIF.
They need help in the rotation and offensive production out of a MIF spot, no doubt. But to blast Jocketty as something of a fool doesn't jive.
The Cardinals can also backload contracts for players starting bigger payouts in 2009 as Edmonds, Encarnacion, Looper, Izzy, and Mulder come off the books, Izzy being the only one of the bunch that is remotely worth what he is being paid.
And as morbid as this sounds, they may get relief from Encarnacion for 2008, as he may choose to retire if he does not regain full eyesight in his eye again.
I'm not trying to paint a rosey picture of the 2008 Cardinals. As they stand right now, they are a very flawed team. But stability in the starting rotation and a MIF that could outhit a girls softball team would go a long way to giving the team a shot at another division title.
Posted by: HL | October 03, 2007 at 12:25 AM
What is with this blind Cardinals delusion? Chris Carpenter wouldn't be enough to bring the team a division title this year. You Cardinals fans act like you are the only team that has had injuries.
Jocketty hasn't done particularly well, if you ask me. Since 2003-2004 the talent level of the roster has dropped pretty much every year, and that Mark Mulder trade was terrible. I'm not sure Wainwright maybe being the 9th or 10th best pitcher in the NL means anything, or that he actually is. I don't like that 1.40 WHIP anymore than I like Noah Lowry's peripherals.
Furthermore, you keep making assumptions about guys who are not healthy and not going to be. This is as bad as "Kerry Wood and Mark Prior" being healthy. Edmonds and Rolen are not dependable. Duncan is still iffy with all of his strikeouts. Ankiel could be the next Chris Shelton, which I find more believable than him being great.
Furthermore, Carlos Silva isn't going to be cheap. He's one of the more attractive free agent pitchers out there.
The Cubs are full of excuses and projections too. "If Derrek Lee hits 40 home runs, Soriano hits 40, Aramis hits 38, and Jacque Jones hit 27 again, the Cubs win the division by a lot more." Well no **** geniuses but that didn't happen, now did it?
Posted by: DentalPlan | October 03, 2007 at 12:34 AM
Wow, that's alot of uninformed statements backed up with some solid generalizations.
Chris Shelton=Rick Ankiel? Chris Shelton came up and outperformed his minor league career, Ankiel carried over what he was able to do over an entire season in AAA and what he's been able to do his entire baseball career.
The part where I said the Cardinals shouldn't expect anything out of Mulder or Carpenter from here going forward was lost on you?
And, just to go back to the 'Chris Carpenter wins the Cardinals the division' in 2007, if Carpenter had put up his worst season as a St. Louis Cardinal for the full 2007 season, he still would have been worth roughly 5 'wins' value wise. For a team that finished 7 games back, 5 wins is big deal.
The Cardinals aren't the only team that has had injuries. Every team has injuries. The Phillies had it worse than the Cardinals did. So did the Dodgers.
The Mulder trade was terrible from 2006 going forward. For 2005, it improved the team's pitching staff. It gave the Cardinals 3 starters in the Top 20 in the NL in Wins and ERA. It also helped the post the best ERA in the NL. The Cardinals were a team on the cusp of winning a World Series that need that final piece to push them over the top. They went out and traded the future to get a veteran pitcher for a 2 year rental. The Rolen injury at the hands of Hee Sop Choi derailed that plan.
Posted by: HL | October 03, 2007 at 01:01 AM
I'll put on my Bill Stoneman hat and state unequivocally that we DO NOT want Rolen. We don't want Rolen under any condition unless the Cards are paying for his contract and we give up nothing. Even then ...
Posted by: bjsguess | October 03, 2007 at 01:17 AM
I shudder at the logic that says if the Cards stand pat or make minor adjustments the team will be fine. Same thing we heard from the White Sox at the beginning of this year.
That too was a team coming off a WS victory. The next year was a disappointment but instead of making significant changes the Sox just hoped that their players would be healthy and play better. Didn't work out so well for them in this year.
If the Cards try that same strategy we will be looking at a $100m roster that goes 81-81 if they are lucky.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 03, 2007 at 01:21 AM
The Cardinals have to get a SP...and a Matt Clement type is the very least they need to do.
Oh, Ozzie, if you are expecting a 20HR full healthy season from Rolen, think again. Edmonds is crap at this point...and will probably concuss himself even further in the OF.
Ankiel played WAY over his head for most of the season since coming up...he came back down to earth after the HGH stuff broke. Don't think he was a .380 hitter in the minors. He always had power, but he ALWAYS struck out too much, just like Duncan. So you basically have two Duncan's in the corners...which is good if you like all or nothing outcomes.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 03, 2007 at 08:43 AM
"So you basically have two Duncan's in the corners"
Offensively by the way...he is WORLDS better on defense.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 03, 2007 at 08:44 AM
To "persue" Renteria, that implies the Cards have a pitcher the Braves want for him. I don't really think there is one...
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | October 03, 2007 at 11:28 AM
Tim, that guy doesn’t have the numbers right at all…
His problems come in on the Mulder, he adds his performance bonus in prematurely. He also doesn’t factored deferred money; here’s how it really looks:
Pujols 16M (3M deferred)
Rolen 12M
Edmonds 8M
Carp 10.5M (2M deferred)
Encarnacion 6.5M
Mulder 6.5M
Looper 5.5M
Kennedy 3.5M
Spiezio 2.3M
Franklin 2.25M
Flores 1M
~ 74.05M – 5M deferred = $69.05M due to 11 players in 08
Options:
Izzy 8M
Pineiro 4M
Taguchi 1.1M
Bennett 0.9M
~ $14M in options to 4 players
Even if all options are picked up:
$83.05M for 15 Players ~ still less than he quoted for 3 more players
Then you have to figure that a good portion of Carpenter’s, Mulder’s and Encarnacion’s salary will be picked up buy insurance. Say Juan misses the full season and the pitchers both miss 1/2, that’s probably another 10M or so being freed up…
Lastly, the current 07 team salary isn’t 100M ~ its $90.28M…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 03, 2007 at 01:07 PM
Actually, Bill DeWitt is his purest since of cheapness counts all deferred money as current year payroll. Which is brilliant, really. You defer money so you can spend more now, but he doesn't spend more because he counts it as if he is spending it right now.
Encarnacion's contract is NOT insured. Carpenter's elbow was insured. Mulder's contract, unknown but doubtful since his shoulder was already being repaired when the Cardinals signed the contract, meaning most insurance companies wouldn't insure it.
DeWitt's creative accounting is why he can tell the fans they spent $102 M last year even though deferred money went as so:
Pujols: $3 M
Rolen: $2 M
Edmonds: $3 M
Carpenter: $2 M
Total : $10 M
$10 M was deferred to 2012 and beyond.
Posted by: HL | October 03, 2007 at 01:55 PM
HL,
Yeah, that guy is kind of a joke if he’s making huge articles based off incorrect or blatantly skewed information. Its kind of like saying “well Adam Dunn will never help anyone with his bat and is a complete waste of space since he only hits about .250” while ignoring the 40+ HR and 100+ RBI he puts up nearly every year…
And you sure Juans contract isn’t insured? I know that sometimes certain body parts cant be if there is a injury history on it (gee thanks Albert Belle and Mike Hamton), but I thought atleast basic insurance is a must on all players ~ and since this was a fluke occurrence it would be covered. I mean even if you cant insure say Mark Priors arm, you would have insurance if he broke a toe running laps in the OF…
No matter though, the only thing thats really important is the fact that the Cards are not in the horrible situation that this guy tries to make it out to be. They will probably be paying about 80M to about 14 players with insurance even possibly knocking that down to as low as 70ish… Add quite a few LgMin possibilities and a tiny bit of Arbitration (which I don’t believe 5M in raises there either, he has Taguchi in there who has an option, Maroth who probably wont be back or will cost less if he is and Ankiel who is happy just to be able to have the shot to play and would probably sign cheap leaving you only Molina, Wellemeyer and Miles who will not be +5M) and youre not in that bad of a position at all…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 03, 2007 at 02:29 PM
"No matter though, the only thing thats really important is the fact that the Cards are not in the horrible situation that this guy tries to make it out to be."
Yes they are. Bad SP, bad offense, bullpen that can go nowhere but down...they, as this post is entitled, have work to do.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 03, 2007 at 02:32 PM
Since the topic was "money committed", they have not spent nearly as much as that guy claims and the statement is completely correct. Your continued sounding off on how much you think they suck and will never do anything right or whatever doesn’t change that one bit...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 03, 2007 at 02:54 PM
The cardinals having work to do has nothing to do with money...or at least very little. It has to do with a lack of a good team on the field.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 04, 2007 at 09:13 AM
Again, I don’t care what you think about them because that’s not what I was talking about. I just said in my last post that I know you think they suck and will never do anything right or whatever, we all understand you feel that way… I didn’t mention talent on the field though, what their needs are or anything to the extent; I was talking about money. So how you can take a statement I make about ‘topic A’ and say its wrong or whatever because you don’t think it equals ‘topic B’ is beyond me… But on the other hand it is you; it’s the same things I’ve experienced in every single conversation with you before and I should just expect it from you I guess…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 04, 2007 at 04:43 PM
The topic was that they have a lot of work to do. And they do. Whether they have 2 mil or 25 mil to spend, they have work to do.
If your statement meant ONLY money wise, then yes, you are correct, they probably aren't in that bad of shape. However, if you are talking about the state of the franchise right now as far as talent that they are putting on the field, you are incorrect.
So, stop with the bias bullshit....I'm looking at the Cards for how they are. I don't like the moves they have made in the last year plus...sorry. Don't call me bias because you don't think they are that bad. I think they have a lot of work to do, so do most. You can say whatever you want...but at the end of the day, they have work to do.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 04, 2007 at 05:49 PM
"If your statement meant ONLY money wise, then yes, you are correct, they probably aren't in that bad of shape"
yes, that is the only thing I was talking about! The entire paragraph (which you apparently ignored) that followed the sentence you copied was about money! The paragraph before the sentence you copied was about money! The one before it? You guessed it… Money! The post before it? Money once more… Yet you copy it and tell me that I was wrong?
I don’t see how you can take a couple posts about money that never talk about anything outside of money, find one sentence right smack dab in the middle of all the money talk and change it to how you feel about the Cardinals… Obviously the only thing you wanted to do was talk bad about the Cards and looked for any sentence to give you that opportunity ~ that shows bias or bitterness or something along those lines in my eyes…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 04, 2007 at 06:11 PM
"that shows bias or bitterness or something along those lines in my eyes…"
hilarious. Sorry, I mistook you for someone writing about the topic of this post. It was about the work they have to do and the fact that they might not have much to do it with. Either way, regardless of the money, they have work to do. I thought you were on the topic of that...not your own agenda of proving the money thing wrong.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 05, 2007 at 04:34 PM