Needs and Luxuries: Oakland Athletics

I think this is a great new feature. Please keep it up. Maybe do the Red Sox next? TB would also be interesting but i'm sure everyone knows where there needs are: SP

Billingsley...he is a monster. A kid like that would never get traded. He's a fixture in that rotation.

Don't forget Jack Hannahan as an infield option. He has a great swing and has done well in his short time filling in Chavez. He hasn't really been tested on defense, and it would be hard to replace that Gold Glove, but he appears to be a solid player.

I couldn't see the A's dealing Haren just yet, but if they did they'd have to buy a bus to bring in their haul. 3 years on the cheap for an Ace, wow.

Chavez is a salary dump - although I would wait until the trade deadline next year. See which contenders lose their 3rd baseman.

Blanton is no better than a 3rd starter on most teams. However, the free agent crop is weak. If you have a choice of dishing out $10m/year for some scrub frugal teams might opt to trade prospects. While getting 2 top prospects might be a little high, I can see getting 2 solid prospects as a real possibility.

Finally, Haren is really interesting. Cheap, young, and under control for 3 more years. How about a Haren for Santana swap? Oakland could then flip Santana for a package of prospects to a contender. The Twins would replenish their starting pitching and could attempt to lock up Haren to a longer term deal (like 5 year $50m deal - buying out his first 2 years of FA). Oakland could then turn around and hold the Yankees/Mets/Sox ransom for the best pitcher on earth.

One thing to keep in mind is that Nick Swisher can play 1B - Ron Washington said that Swisher is the best fielding 1B on the team. And Swisher prefers to play 1B.

That makes moving Dan Johnson that much more likely. Swisher can spell Barton, and Cust can play RF (Cust has played about 40 games in the OF this year).

I like bjguess' suggestion of trading for and then flipping Santana. And if you're the Twins, a Johnson+Haren offer for Santana might be hard to refuse.

Ok heres the trade. (hint the arrogance)Braves Trade Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado, and T Hanson for Dan Haren.

That would give the Braves THE best pitching staff in the league. 3 aces in Hudson Smoltz and Haren and then two 5 starters but nevermind that and think of the three aces.

As a braves fan im tired of being a baseball fan until football season starts; mostly because were out of the playoff hunt. but i guess we can use the philosophy of Royals fan "the future looks Bright"

No on Uribe. We already have him in Crosby.

Murphy is the option to replace Crosby at SS if anyone does. Scutaro has a good chance of being non-tendered next year.

Chavez is having Shoulder Surgery, and will have Back Surgery in 3 weeks. So he will be out for quite a while. In the meantime, Jack Hanahan will fill in at 3B unless the A's make a deal with Los Angeles in the form of a Blanton for LaRoche, Hu and a pitching prospect (Kewshaw? Elbert?).

The A's might also try Travis Buck in Center Field as well. They did so a few games before deciding that it'd be best to keep him healthy and fix the bone spurs in his elbow (which have been there since Spring Training).

I think there might be a possibility that the A's could move Chavez to 1st Base and put Hanahan at 3B if he continues his play. That might mean that Barton will split time between 1B and DH though.

Did someone really just suggest trading Harden for Johan? Are you serious????

How much would have to be added to Escobar for the braves to get Haren? What about Blanton?

I'd like Haren more but we've already traded a lot of prospects this year so maybe blanton would be more reasonable.

I have faith in JS to get good value from Beane. I mean it only took Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas to get Hudson when in the same offseason the cards had to give up Haren, Barton, and Calero

I like the feature. Perhaps some mention of the teams expected budget/payroll? Some of the budget stuff is hard to predict (KC coming out of nowhere to sign Meche!), but it would help the evaluation process to know which teams are looking to add payroll and which teams are looking to dump.

First off, Tim I think this is a great new feature, but you might wait a bit longer before going to deep into it, this seems like good material for the offseason/playoff stretch.

Ok, onto the A's. I'd say you were pretty close on the needs section, as CF and SS do need serious upgrades. With that in mind and dealing from a mentioned "luxury", I'd try and move Blanton to the Dodgers for Hu, Kemp, and Meloan. For those guys who knocked Blanton here, go check the numbers. Blanton is a #2 starter in the NL easy, almost a 1/2 tweener type there. He's a 2/3 tweener in the AL, so moving him to the NL makes a lot of sense. He's just entering his arby years, meaning a team has him for at least three years, but could likely lock him up to a 4-6 year deal buying out some FA years at a bit of a discount. Blanton is a horse who pitches deep into games(6 IP or more in 24 of 20 GS), has improved his K/BB rate tremendously(almost 4/1), and who doesn't get killed with the long ball. Two or three very good prospects for him is an even deal.

With that deal done, I'd try and move Kotsay to anyone that takes him and at least 20% of his salary. Let Kemp play CF with Buck in LF and Swisher in RF. Denorfia could backup all three spots and should be able to provide solid if unspectacular performance when called upon. Snelling is a guy I see in AAA or on the DL, he could be a good player if he stays healthy, but I'm not sold on that ever happening.

I agree that Dan Johnson is a bit of a luxury, as in I'd only have him on the team in Chavez can't go to start the year. For next season at least I'd play Chavez at 1B, although if Hannahan is for real the move could be permanent. With Chavez going for surgery on his shoulder and likely his back, hopefully next year we'll start to see the player who was really blossoming in 2002-2004, before the shoulder injury he's dealt with for 10 years started to effect him more and more. I could easily see Chavy moving to 1B full time and putting up the offensive numbers expected of him early on, along with Gold Glove defense at 1B.

This kind of leaves Daric Barton out in the cold, at least for next year, and I think that is a good thing. The kid is still very young, and I'd like to see him play all of next year in AAA again to get more consistent and to see if his power ever develops. If it doesn't and Hannahan is a bust, move Chavy back to 3B in 2009 with Barton at 1B. You'll live with the .300/.400/.440 production Barton would likely give then, although it's not what we all hoped for originally.

Cust is a guy I expect to continue his success next year, although at a slightly lower clip I assume. He's also a guy I could see Beane moving late next year or in the 2008-2009 offseason if Hannahan, Barton, and Chavez all hit well. As for the aforementioned walking wounded, Harden and Crosby, I'm about done with them to be honest. I'd move Harden to the pen to start the year, hope he's healthy and dominant early, then move him for a solid to good return. Crosby...what a disappointment. I'd send him back to AAA if possible next year and let him know he's not coming back up until he fixes his swing. If he can't work it out, cut bait and move him for a warm body to dump the salary.

Hopefully Beane will grab another young SP somewhere, like he did Gaudin a couple of years back. Haren and Gaudin are solid guys to build around I think, and DiNardo could be an effective guy for another year or two I think. I'd try hard to move Kotsay to a team in need of a CF with pitching to spare(I'd cover his whole salary to get Scott Baker from Minnesota). Dan Meyer is still a guy I think can contribute to the rotation, but I'd give him a bullpen job next year to adjust to ML hitters, with an eye on a late season move to the rotation or a shot in 2009. Guys like Windsor and Komine are garbage I think, maybe they can make it as a mop up guy, but I don't expect much more than that. Braden should be used in the pen next year with him looking to replace Embree in late innings in 2009. With his screwball, Braden could an effective setup man vs. both RH and LF batters.

A short term SP could be a decent idea also, as James Simmons, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey should all be up in 2-3 years tops. For the right price a guy like Livan could be ok on a one year deal, just an innings eater type for a year.

Nice post Gatling. You are obviously aware of what is happening in Oakland.

I'm curious though why you think Blanton is a number 2 guy in the NL and possibly a number 1? When I look at the rotations he seems like a decent #3 guy on a contending type team. Sure he could be the ace if he was moved to the Nationals but if you put him on the Padres / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Braves / Mets, etc he is a middle to back of the rotation guy imo.

"Nice post Gatling. You are obviously aware of what is happening in Oakland.

I'm curious though why you think Blanton is a number 2 guy in the NL and possibly a number 1? When I look at the rotations he seems like a decent #3 guy on a contending type team. Sure he could be the ace if he was moved to the Nationals but if you put him on the Padres / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Braves / Mets, etc he is a middle to back of the rotation guy imo."

Thanks for the kind words bjsguess. I'll go a little deeper into why I think Blanton could be a 1/2 type guy in the NL. I'll start with the easiest thing, he'll face a pitcher twice a game instead of a DH. That would probably help raise his K/9 rate to 6+, or in the neighborhood of Brad Penny. Penny is an interesting guy to compare with, as Blanton and Penny are tied at #9 in all of baseball with a DIPS ERA of 3.40, a rise for Penny from his actual ERA and a drop for Blanton vs. his actual ERA. Basically, if both guys were on the same team, pitching in the same parks they'd be roughly equal. Blanton also induces a good number of groundballs, which is something I look for in a pitcher. Basically, his ERA would lower(possibly his WHIP as well, but not that drastically), his K/9 and likely his K/BB rates would rise, and his groundball/flyball rate would probably improve also(again because of facing a pitcher vs. a DH).

Now, using your examples I'd say that Blanton would be the #3 starter on the Pads, although he and Chris Young could be a toss up honestly(Young is helped tremendously by pitching in Petco, check out his GB/FB rate). Blanton would be the #2 guy on the D-Backs without a doubt, same with the Dodgers I think. Until Pedro regains his pre-injury form I'd be willing to bet that Blanton would be their best SP, ahead of Maine(another guy aided by a good home park). The Braves...I'm willing to say he'd be the #2/3 guy, he and Hudson have comparable numbers while in different leagues, and are close in the DIPS ERA category also.

I hope that clears things up a bit, and sheds some light on where I'm coming from.

For grumpy3b, my question is do you think the package I suggested is more fair than the LaRoche/Hu/Kershaw deal I've seen thrown around here and elsewhere? I think LaRoche is superior to Kemp to be honest, and with Pierre locked into that horrible contract Kemp's value is a bit less to the Dodgers as he's more valuable in CF. Meloan looks nice, but the Dodgers have a lot of good bullpen arms and/or other young pitchers who could/might be converted to the pen(Elbert, Miller, etc.). I think the Dodgers give up less talent in the deal I suggested, the A's get talent at more pressing spots, and the Dodgers have a great 1-2-3 punch in Penny/Blanton/Billz at the head of the rotation. I know the big complaint has been the lack of a big bat for the Dodgers, but I really think a full year of LaRoche/Loney at the corners, the probable bounce back in production from Ethier(he's not a .900 OPS guy, but I do think he can settle in as an .850 type guy), and what I think would be an upgrade in LF with Delwyn Young coming in for Gonzo(I'm guessing an OPS in the same range as Ethier for Delwyn, the kid can hit) the Dodgers might not have a "big bat", but could have some of the most even offensive production around next year. Of course, if they want to push for a title, there is a certain LF with loads of power who will be available in the offseason, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Bonds land in LA for a shot at a ring.

I sure would like to see Harden in the Braves rotation....If it isn't another Mike Hampton situation which is all it has been for him in Oakland. Renteria for Rich seems logical. A's should throw in a reliever before the Braves go with that though. If and when Rich is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game.