Needs and Luxuries: New York Mets

Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Mets.

C -
1B - Carlos Delgado
2B - Ruben Gotay
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - David Wright
LF - Carlos Gomez
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Lastings Milledge

SP - Pedro Martinez
SP - Orlando Hernandez
SP - Oliver Perez
SP - John Maine
SP - Mike Pelfrey/Philip Humber

Setup: Aaron Heilman/Duaner Sanchez
Closer: Billy Wagner

The Mets had a strong offense in '07, basically the third best in the NL.  Their starting pitching was above average, and their bullpen was roughly in the middle.  They ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Needs

As you can see above, the Mets have vacancies at catcher, second base, left field, and perhaps in the rotation.  That's because Paul Lo Duca, Ramon Castro, Luis Castillo, Moises Alou, and Tom Glavine could all be playing for different teams in 2008.

It's probably time to move on from Lo Duca, who stopped hitting.  The viable free agent options are Jorge Posada, Castro, Michael Barrett, and Miguel Olivo, in that order.  Overpaying to lure Posada is an interesting idea.  Otherwise, you go for a bargain with one of the others.  Trade options include Gerald Laird, Kelly Shoppach, Bengie Molina, and Ramon Hernandez.  The latter two would be salary dumps, so the price in players might be negligible.

I discussed the Castillo situation here. I'd probably bring him back, but I'd first learn the asking price for Orlando Hudson, Mark Ellis, and Freddy Sanchez.  The first two are free agents after the '08 season.

Left field, you gotta exercise Mo at $7.5MM (effectively $6.5MM).  Easy choice, and Endy Chavez is a nice fourth outfielder.  Right field is Milledge's, no questions asked.  I wouldn't go after a center fielder and then try to shift Beltran over.  That sets the outfield in my mind, though Mike Nichols of MetsBlog advocates an Adam Dunn trade.

A starting pitcher is a must, as no one in the '08 rotation pitched 200 innings.  Glavine is OK, but he already declined a $13MM option to stay.  He's probably not worth much more than $10MM.  I think the goal is a big, grand starting pitcher acquisition like Johan Santana.  I imagine Milledge, Maine, or Gomez would have to be part of such a deal, and the Mets would require a window for an extension.   

A solid alternative would be to sign Curt Schilling, though that is a fairly brittle rotation.  I'm recommending Schilling for a lot of teams, because he's still effective and comes on a one-year deal.  Not too many guys fit that description (Clemens might be the other, but I don't like him for the Mets).  Otherwise, it's the usual suspects from the free agent market.  And we've discussed the trade candidates many times before: Garland, Blanton, Lowry, Willis, Burnett, Igawa, Robertson.  Can't see the Astros making Oswalt available. 

Some have advocated the Mets signing a Francisco Cordero type to anchor the pen and succeed Wagner.  Signing Cordero or Mariano Rivera seems extravagant; the team has bigger needs.  Maybe Omar can dip his feet in with a Troy Percival or someone like that.  Good pens are usually built on the cheap.  Plus, Duaner Sanchez should be back.

Luxuries

The Mets' biggest luxury is probably money.  Thing is, the free agent market doesn't offer many star players to suit their needs.  Posada and Schilling might be the only "star" players the Mets can acquire without giving up players.

The other luxury is prospects.  Gomez's star is still bright, while those of Pelfrey, Humber, Mike Carp, and Fernando Martinez have faded a touch.  Gomez in particular might become a star, and could fetch one of the better players listed above.  Omar Minaya's been in a bit of a slump; can he spin some magic this winter?    

Comments

[coolpapabell]

Omra has a very difficult job right now, and I do not envy him at the least. This year might very well change the future of the franchise if he wastes his prospects in a trade. Which outfielder do you keep. Milledge can hit MLB picthing but can he mature mentally? Is Gomez all tools no bat? In which case you deal him now when he is high. F. Martinez is very young and could be an impact player do you deal him yet? Tough tough tough. Pelfrey and Humber need time. They might develope in to solid guys, but its clear they need the luxurty to screw up in order to grow.

Solid pitching is hard to get, but positional player can be bought a lot easier.

[John Peterson]

I think that this is the year than Orlando Hernandez is finally moved to the bullpen as a reliever/spot starter. As for filling his spot in the rotation, I think a trade with the A's is very likely.

[nrmax88]

The one guy I try to avoid trading at all costs is Gomez. His upside is just too enormous and we havent even begun to scratch the surface with him. I also dont trade Maine in a deal for Santana, because although the Santana part would upgrade our rotation mightily, we have nobody to replace Maines production from last year, it would just be creating another big hole in the rotation, which is not what the Mets need right now. Maybe Fernando Martinez, Milledge, Pelfrey, Muniz? Who knows what would get it done for Santana. If the Mets add Santana without moving Maine, it strengthens their team big time, but if they include Maine in the package the rotation only gets a little bit better, while you are also losing 2 to 3 top prospects, just to basically fill the number 1 spot in the rotation, and open up the number 3 spot. It isnt worth it IMO.

[coolpapabell]

Pelfrey and Humber showed flashes. Humber had a shaky start in AAA New Orleans, but had a strong finish where he came within two out of a no hitter(and Burgos allowed three runs to lose the game). He was brought up in Sept., forced to sit on his ass until the second to last week. The game went well for him but his stamina was shot because he had not sniffed the field for three weeks (thanks to a shrinking lead and Willie).
Pelfrey had a strong finish after an equally shaky start. Again, tough tough choices.

[nrmax88]

John Peterson, what do you think about Pelfrey/Humber going included in a deal for a topline starter, and Heilman finally gets his shot in the rotation. I have been thinking about it, and it makes more and more sense. Heilman has shown he is a horse, and is very durable. I see no reason Heilman couldnt throw 190 innings of 4.15 ball. He could fill the 5th spot, El Duque moves to the long man role. If the Mets somehow land Santana a rotation of Santana, Pedro, Perez, Maine, Heilman would look awesome. Who knows though, the mets could find that they have their next cheap innings eater in their own bullpen.

[coolpapabell]

What do you guys think of Linebrink? It seems like such a no brainer, but no one mentions him.

[nrmax88]

Heilman always wanted to start, and hey, if Looper can do it, why not Heilman? I figure you get cheap production out of the 5th rotation spot, and it makes Pelfrey and Humber more expendable so you can keep Maine/ Perez.

[coolpapabell]

You know, I have always thought that Heilman deserves a shot either as a Met or somewhere else. It seems that the Mets are absolutely dead set against it. He needs a shot, just to see, but you need a solid set-up man if you do this.

[nrmax88]

Yeah, like you said, Linebrink? Maybe Frankie Cordero.

[black_coat_white_shoes]

after that brawl on the second to last day of the year, we have a better chance of jesus christ playing catcher for the mets than olivo.

[loducathebeast]

i like what mets.fever.blogspot.com had to say about Mets in 2008 and a possible team..

I'd say there's an 80% chance Lo Duca is back on a 1 year deal

90% Luis Castillo is back

and 98% Alou is back

check metsfever.blogspot.com

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"A solid alternative would be to sign Curt Schilling, though that is a fairly brittle rotation."

Pedro wasn't too happy with being team mates with him in Boston. Not that Omar should make decisions based on Pedro's happiness, just saying.

[bobo]

They've got a lot of issues. I think you have to go into 2008 assuming that Pedro and El Duque will be healthy.

Maine is overrated but very solid and with the flashes of brilliance he's shown, could step up and make his ERA legitimate.

Perez will likely be inconsistent but should have a spot on nearly any staff.

Heilman to the rotation is interesting, he can certainly be a decent 4th or 5th starter in the NL. This would leave a big hole in the pen though.

There aren't many FA relievers I'd recommend signing. Linebrink has been trending downward is virtually every stat. He'll be one of the biggest FA busts, since he's sure to sign for at least $4-5M per year.

Cordero is going to get at least $10M - you want to pay that? Maybe, if you you think that his K and BB rates are going to stay where they are (if he goes to AL, good luck with that). A very high BABIP bodes well for 2008. But I don't think he's going to want to be a setup man, do you?

Pelfrey has shown nothing in the rotation. Move him to the pen until he can get his ERA below 5. He could dominate when pitching an inning at a time.

Counting on Sanchez is foolish. He was lucky in 2006 and you don't know how he'll come back in 2008.

So to sum up the staff - the starters should be decent, but the pen needs some arms. Moving El Duque to the pen could be a good idea but can he deal with the constant up and down?

In any case looks like they need a top bullpen arm (which of course is not available) and/or a starter. I think at least one of them has to be a real top player.

[icedrake523]

"Pedro wasn't too happy with being team mates with him in Boston. Not that Omar should make decisions based on Pedro's happiness, just saying."

Has anyone been happy being team mates with him?

Even if Pedro doesn't like him, he's an obnoxious blow-hard. Let him go to Tampa just be to a rebel.

[andagh]

Considering the success with Oliver Perez, I wonder if the Mets would consider trading for Daniel Cabrera. I doubt they'd have to trade one of their better prospects. They could get Matt Morris from the Pirates for an Oliver Perez signed baseball if they wanted to.

[ryan c]

the mets are becoming as "high maintenance" as that other new york team. sign someone who is young and good looking and new york will be happy.

[Derrick]

as a braves fan please sign Posada, hes like 36 and fading.

remember be aloud in your dispite of the Chokes I mean mets

[Sunny Reiser]

"This year might very well change the future of the franchise if he wastes his prospects in a trade."

Some very wise words there, those.

BTW, I wouldn't touch Daniel Cabrera with a 10-foot pole...Pedro and El Duque are already question marks for next year, until they prove otherwise, and I'd like to see Perez show consistency for another year before marking him down as a solid bet.

The last thing the Mets need is "Dial-a-Bombing" Cabrera in their rotation for next year. He's a BUM.

[MEddler]

Well done Tim, as someone who follows the Mets closely I must say this is a very fair estimation of where they are.

[OmarTheGM]

I would move El Duque to the bullpen and be a spot starter. Trade Pelfrey, Heilman and Gomez for Santana and possibly Matt Guerrier. You either resign LoDuca to a one-year contract or overpay Posada with a two year deal. As for second base, I asked myself why didn't Omar go after a young stud at the trading deadline such as Josh Barfield who will have no where to play on the Indians team in 2008, and that will set your infield with Wright, Reyes, Barfield and Delgado. Plus Barfield you will have under control until 2010 (I think). I'd give Milledge the RF job and make sure he matures and stops showboating (some pitcher will throw one up his head); Pick up the option on Moises Alou and sign Francisco Cordero to a 3 or 4 year deal (1 year behind Billy Wagner) and have him eventually take over the closing duties beginning in 2009. Lastly, what are the chances of the Mets possibly drafting someone like Matthew Wieters of Georgia Tech who was not signed by the August 15 deadline as the #5 overall selection of the Baltimore Orioles? I'm sure he will still be a top 10 pick for the 2009 MLB draft, and it would be nice if he landed with the Mets selection as their catcher of the future. In closing, trade for Santana and at least find out what the asking price is going to be to bring Josh Barfield back to the NL before you start dealing the farm system away.

[TribeFan06]

what kind of value does shoppach have?

[nrmax88]

I dont think Gomez, Heilman, Pelfrey gets it done for Santana. They also think they have their catcher of the future in Frankie Pena. I agree completely on Josh Barfield, I would love to try to get him on the cheap. I would be wary of trading Gomez, that is the one guy I truely believe will blossom into superstardom. Pelfrey showed some signs at the end of the season, but I agree he is probably better served at this point coming out of the pen, atleast for the time being.

[MEddler]

I don't think the FA market will solve the Mets pitching needs; so their money will be of little help here (unless it means extending a monster name like Santana). I think Joe Blanton would be a nice middle ground between another project (like Daniel Cabrera) and an ace (like Johan Santana). Maine and Perez will display enough sporadic but frequent dominance over a season to hold the rotation down in terms of quality starts and good triple crown numbers. But they won't quite be pitchers that relievers feel like they might as well be out in the bullpen wearing swimming trunks and getting a nice tan for during day games. Joe Blanton could be the perfect remedy.

Of course, a 200 IP ace would be ideal, but it may not be feasible. The only project worth taking on by any stretch would be Dontrelle Willis. If he is "fixable" then at least you already know he's a horse and a gamer.

I'm all for trading some of the young outfielders and pitchers for a Santana type if possible. If it takes Milledge the Mets will have a vacancy in Right. What about Bobby Abreu? Would he sign on to the Mets for three years and $24-27 million? That could be a suitable arrangement. He'd probably be hitting 7th or 8th and could also very well hit 2nd to take pitches for Reyes. He still steals some bases, has some marginal pop, a decent glove, and solid OBP. He'd basically do everything Shawn Green did but at least one better. Plus another left handed bat would balance the lineup, and it wouldn't mean shifting someone like Tori Hunter or Carlos Beltran out of their natural position. If Carlos Gomez is around, he could push Abreu to Left when he's ready and Alou is gone (not to mention spend some time platooning with Abreu against lefties). If not three years of Abreu would be a nice stopgap to Fernando Martinez (yeah his star may have fallen a bit, but an 18 year old hitting .271 and generally holding his own at AA leaves the future wide open for him to rebuild it).

[MEddler]

"Good pens are usually built on the cheap."

Exactly right. Couldn't agree more. Imagine if the Mets had Royce Ring and Heath Bell instead of Scott Shoeneweiss and Gueirrmo Mota. Regardless of whether Ring and Bell could have succeeded in NY, at least you wouldn't be tied down by large contracts. That's what bullpens are all about, flexibility, not "the best arms".

I say go all hands on deck. Give the Willie Callazos and and Carlos Munizes their chance during the spring and early season. If they fail, could it really be worse than signing a historically marginal player to a multi-year contract? I still think giving Burgos a shot was a good idea, its just that Burgos alone wasn't enough. You need at least three or four guys with some life in their arms competing for big league jobs. Moving Bell, Ring, and Lindstrom turned out to be a pretty big mistake. I hope Omar learns from it.

[bjsguess]

I'm shocked at the Mets fans. There are actually well thought out and objective comments posted here. I guess that Yankee myopia hasn't leaked out of the Bronx. Nice job guys on the insight.

It's time the Mets let their prospects play. Give Gomez and Milledge a chance to show if they are the real deal. If they prove to be at least league average you are saving $15-18m/year when compared with current FA pricing. You can use that money to sign Posada to a one or two year deal or bring in your eventual replacement for Wagner. Having Cordero set-up for a year wouldn't be the worst thing. Mets would have a real nice bullpen.

I wouldn't go crazy with spending this year though. The crop of talent that is projected to hit the market in 08 will be worth saving your pennies for.

[FineHamAbounds]

I have to say... the idea that the Mets go after Josh Barfield is interesting. Reyes, Wright, Gomez, Beltran, and Barfield would be the fastest team baseball has seen in ages. I'd like to see if it could work.

[mymrbig]

Would Francisco Cordero actually sign with a team knowing he would set-up for 1 year? I assume Wagner wants to pitch beyond 2008, how would he respond to having his replacement brought in for 2008, knowing the Mets have zero intention of re-signing him? These are 2 pretty big questions before Francisco Cordero can really be considered.

I never understand why people say Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez have had their stock fall this year. Most American-born 18-year-olds are in high school, not hitting .271 in AA. Exceptionally few of them could hit .271 in AA. I don't see how an 18-year-old Fernando Martinez sees his stock drop by hitting .271 in AA. His hand/wrist issues are worth dropping his stock, but not his production. An Carlos Gomez was 21 this year. Hitting .286/.363/.414 as a 21-year-old in AAA is fantastic, even if his .232/.288/.304 line for the Mets was disappointing. Again, he's still very young for his level and I don't see why anyone would be disappointed with his performance. It truly boggles the mind!

[beeniez]

Biggest luxury is prospects? I know this article is bit dated but... BA says the Mets minor league system ranks 28th of the 30 teams. I read they didn't have that great of a draft for 2007, so 2006 netted them tons of prospects?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/26854.html

[ArodSucksAtLife]

why would you post a link to two year old information? BA ranked them 13th as of April '07.

[nrmax88]

Mr. Big, I dont know if I buy it, but Wagner was quoted as saying he wants to play out the rest of his Mets contract and then retire. It is probably B.S., but he did say it.

[nrmax88]

I dont know, the Mets dont have a great system, but it is okay. Lots of top heavy talent, not much else. You have Humber, Pelfrey, Milledge, Gomez, Martinez, Pena, Guerra, Mulvey, Burgos, all with big upside, but thats sort of it.

[nrmax88]

Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Carlos Muniz, Joe Smith, Abiorix Burgos for Johan Santana and Joe Nathan? Not enough?

[nrmax88]

Then you rotation looks like this.

Santana
Pedro
Perez
Maine
Heilman ( I would move him to the rotation), or El Duque, but let him start his season 6 weeks after everyone else so he doesnt break down.

I would have El Duque in the long roll, along with Muniz, Collazo, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Nathan, Wagner. Perhaps make a deal or sign another FA bullpen arm. I wonder what Shapiro would want for Barfield. I would go after him though.

My lineup would look like this.

Reyes
Barfield
Wright
Beltran
Alou
Delgado
Catcher?
Gomez

I would also have to atleast look into the possibility of A-Rod if he opts out. I sort of like the Abreu idea also, if Milledge is dealt, and you give Gomez some more time to get ready, and then he takes over for Alou in 09.

[bobo]

Abreu's option will likely be exercised by the Yankees, and if it's not, he's not signing for anything close to $8M a year.

I can't imagine Gomez, Heilman, and Pelfrey being too close to what Santana will require.

I like the Barfield option. The Mets should take a chance on someone with some upside at at least one position. Also the Indians have a lot of young bullpen arms. Would they trade Betancourt, Perez, or Lewis? Probably Lewis. The Mets could make a risky trade and probably swap Martinez for Lewis and Barfield - would you do that? The Indians could throw in Choo, or another relief prospect perhaps.

I don't know what it will take to get Santana, but I have a hard time penciling him into the Mets' plans for 2008, just because it's such an unknown.

"Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Carlos Muniz, Joe Smith, Abiorix Burgos for Johan Santana and Joe Nathan? Not enough?"

I don't think so. It's not an awful offer, and Muniz, Smith, and Burgos have some value, but in a deal for Santana and Nathan they have to be considered throw-ins.

I really think for almost every team (maybe short of the Dodgers), you're talking about your 4 or 5 best prospects for those two.

I think at the minimum, you're looking at something like:

Martinez, Gomez, and 3 out of Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey, Mulvey.

And I still suspect that if they were to trade them separately, even maybe one of them mid-season, they could do better.

I think Blanton is more realistic. You're probably still looking at what was discussed last year - something like 3 players:
Milledge or Gomez
Pelfrey, Humber, or Mulvey
Heilman.

So my plan:

- Trade Gomez, Humber and Heilman for Blanton.

- Trade for Barfield and maybe someone like Javier Valentin.

- Move Pelfrey to the pen.

- Resign Alou and Castro.

So you've got:

Rotation:
Pedro
Blanton
Maine
Perez
El Duque/Humber/Mulvey?

Pen:
Wager, Sanchez, Smith, Pelfrey, and others (and possibly El Duque)

Lineup:

Reyes
Barfield
Wright
Beltran
Alou
Delgado
Milledge
Valentin/Castro
Pitcher

[nrmax88]

bobo I pretty much agree with everything you said besides the Blanton proposal. I just dont think that Blanton is worth those 3 guys. I think that the odds are that at some point in the near future one of Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey/Heilman can put up comparable numbers to Joe Blanton over a full season. I know Blanton is an innings eater, but I dont like his K rate, or his upside, and he struggled pretty bad in 2006. I just dont think he is good enough to give up Gomez in that deal. If it is only innings from him that you are looking for, I think Heilman could probably throw 190 innings in a season, he seems to have a rubber arm and I dont think I ever remember him hurting himself. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Jennings for a 1 year deal, and save Gomez., and hold out for the FA crop going into 09.

You also have to understand here though, I am a HUGE Gomez fan, he has every tool that you look for in a young baseball player. He is extremely fast, has awesome range, and a very good arm. He needs to work on plate discipline but most young guys do.He could play CF for more then a few ML teams right now, and not hurt you defensively. He would most likely struggle on offense but could still swipe 40 bases in a season. He is also a big kid and should develop some serious power by the time he is 25 or 26. Given his age, skillset and athleticism his upside is enormous, and I hate to give that up. Maybe it is because I was spoiled watching Reyes come up with a similar upside, no plate discipline, blinding speed and watch him put it all together. The thought of a somewhat polished Gomez batting 2nd behind Reyes at the top of a lineup is scary.

I also dont think that Martinez would be needed to get Barfield, since he seems to have lost his starting job to Asdrubal Cabrera. I am not sure what the Tribe would want though.

[OmarTheGM]

I wouldn't trade not a player listed as a top 10 prospect in the farm system, much less overpay to get Joe Blanton in a Met uniform. I certainly hope Billy Beane fleeces the Dodgersif he thinks Joe Blanton is the next coming of Greg Maddux. For me to trade someone like Humber, Mulvey and Gomez, I'd swing a trade to get my hands on Johan Santana. If the Mets manage to get Florida catcher Miguel Olivo, does he still want to fight Jose Reyes? Two players worth noting that will be working their way through the Mets farm system possessing a lot of upside as well as potential (and not mentioned in the post): Deolis Guerra and Jon Niese. I'd probably offer: Pelfrey, Heilman, Gomez and Guerra for Santana, Guerrier and Minnesota #4 prospect Chris Parmelee.

[John Peterson]

nrmax88, I think Heilman would be suitable in the rotation; however, he might be more valuable in the bullpen. I think the Mets should at least consider it.

Scott Linebrink is just an adequate reliever whose value is just inflated enough that he might be a Type A free agent. Do the Mets want to give up their first round draft pick for him?

[nrmax88]

You're right. Forget Linebrink. Even after this late season debacle in the bullpen, I have faith Omar will put together a solid bullpen without making any significant signings, like he did in 2006. I hope Shcoeneweis can perform in 08 like he finished 07. Joe Smith should be ready for an entire season. Maybe Pelfrey/Humbers gets a shot in the pen. My feeling is just collect as many live arms as you can and let them fight it out for the jobs. Hopefully Sanchez or Padilla will be back healthy and effective, but I am pretty doubtful. Something happened to the Mets the day Duaner Sanchez got in that cab in Miami. They havent been quite the same since then.

[Ibleedorangeandblue]

I doubt the Mets would trade Maine for Santana because then you still have a hole in your rotation

[MEddler]

You really think the Yanks are going to exercise Abreu's $16 million option?? His OPS last season was .814 even with the short porch at Yankee stadium and he's been consistently declining. Why would they?? They could do better on the open market for $16 million. Maybe $8 million is a little unrealistic, but $16 goes a longer way than the current form of Bobby Abreu. If they're willing to go longer in years, $16 million is probably getting closer to Andruw range. Its not like going longterm on a new CF and platooning Damon and Melky in right would block up Tabata or anything, both Damon and Matsui should be just about out of the picture by the time he's ready. Sure they'd be a little weak in the RF arm dept., but they'd have that same problem in CF by exercising Abreu.