Tigers Hot Stove Talk

Lynn Henning of the Detroit News runs down all of the big names rumored to be possibilities for the Tigers this winter and assesses the likelihood of each.  It's a well-written article so be sure to read it.  Here are the players, ranked by the percent chance of playing for Detroit next year:

Kenny Rogers - 90%
Todd Jones - 80%
Geoff Jenkins - 75%
Edgar Renteria - 50%
Jack Wilson - 30%
Francisco Cordero - 5%
Alex Rodriguez - 3%
Mariano Rivera - 3%
Raul Ibanez - 0.5%
Torii Hunter - 0%
Andruw Jones - 0%

• Henning believes Jenkins is quite likely to become a Tiger on a two-year deal.  He only costs money, as the Brewers won't be offering him arbitration if they decline his option.  The Twins may be in the mix for him as well.
• Henning notes that new Braves GM Frank Wren and current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski have a connection and could easily work together on a Renteria trade.  Pitching would be the requirement.  Jeremy Bonderman seems like too much; Nate Robertson perhaps too little.
• The Tigers badly want to bring Rogers back; that seems very likely.
• Henning expects Jones back unless he receives an offer from the Braves, located somewhat near his home.  That's not expected.

Comments

[Not Joe Morgan]

A 75% chance of Jenkins, huh? I wonder if she'd take a 3:1 bet on that.

[mraver]

Is it at all realistic that the Tigers would trade Bonderman? What would they want besides Renteria? I'd love to get him as a Braves fan, but I'm not sure I see it happening.

[thedeuce]

mraver i totally agree. bonderman would be a huge acquisition but not sure what the braves could package with renteria. on the flip side it might seem that the tigers might have to add a lil more if we acquire roberston, mid tier prospect maybe? i dont see todd jones coming to ATL at all.

[D'Andre]

The Braves should go all out to acquire Bonderman. A 3 for 1 deal might be enough to get him.

Braves: Jeremy Boderman
Tigers: Renteria, Eric Campbell, and Chuck or JoJo

[anthoneytheghost]

if a renteria acquisition means the tigers lose bonderman than i think that would be a disaster. that team dosent really need a 1 or two hitter, so renteria would bat 6th at highest. you dont need to lose an ace type pitcher for that. id say give pennies to get jack wilson and stick him in the 8-9 hole and call it a day at shortstop.

[anthoneytheghost]

im probably the last person on this website who should bring up the cubs, but i think a renteria acquisition would make a lot of sense for them. putting him at the top of the order would allow them to move the misplaced alfonso soriano out of the lead off spot. i dunno, it makes a wold of sense to me. not sure exactly what it would take. matt murton, if the braves sign glavine i dont see them needing a major league ready starter, maybe bullpen? i dont know. let me know waht you guys think.

[gtliles]

Guys, all Bonderman rumors are unfounded. He's completely unavailable right now.

[ZachAttack]

Bonderman is an ace? Since when did 5+ ERA and less than 150 strikeout become an ace's numbers? He has yet to post an ERA 4, and has only got under 4.50 ERA once in his career. He had great strikeout numbers last year, but the next highest number of strikeouts he has had is 168. He had a 1.38 WHIP...stellar.

Bonderman is a fringe 4 starter with numbers like this year. I personally think he is a high-end number three, with the possibility of becoming a low end two.

Please don't say he is an ace. Thanks.

[D'Andre]

I couldn't agree with you any more Zach Attack.

anthoneytheghost, trading with the Cubs makes a great deal of sense to me also. The Braves should be able to get Sean Marshall or Rich Hill from the Cubs. Hill won't come that cheap. But Marshall and another player like Ward might get Renteria.

[Bravesfanuc]

Bonderman can become the next Smoltz. Smoltz wasn't very good as 24 year old and didn't become excellent until he was 27.

[FineHamAbounds]

Bravesfanuc:
Sure, he COULD become the next Smoltz, but Smoltz was still posting an ERA almost a full 2 points lower then Bonderman until he was 27... I don't see it happening, and I don't see the Braves really going after him. There's a decent list of available starters I'd take in a trade for Edgar before I looked at Bonderman.

[NEILarado]

Sean Marshall and Eric Patterson for Renteria seems like a done deal to me..

Sean Marshall always has a great start to the season. He pitched a GREAT 100 innings and then started to tail off some. He just needs to keep working on his conditioning and he will be a very good 3 or 4 for the braves. they will have him cheap for the next 4 years.

Patterson will be the cheap replacement for Andruw Jones. He has shown a good mix of speed and power in AAA (where he tore up AAA pitching) and could be their future lead off man.

Sounds good for 2 years of Renteria to me..

Smoltz
Hudson
James
Marshall
(Glavine? JoJo?)

[Ripwa]

Bonderman's high is a #3? WHAT? Are you insane? Like serious, do you watch baseball? The guy posted a 3.33 FIP with 202 Ks when he was 23 years old. Even last year, he posted a very good 4.22 FIP in a tough hitting division. In a year that he was hurt he still ranked 20th. The guy is 24 and has NASTY stuff. Plus, he has posted good numbers for his age. A #3 has to be a joke. Maybe he will never be better than a #3 but his ceiling is top 10 pitcher in baseball.

[bravesbeast]

I definitely have seen many comparables between smoltz and bonderman. Bonderman is going to try and refine the splitter he worked on last offseason for 2008, and then I can definitely see him being a comparable to John Smoltz. But right now, no, he is at best a 2 or 3, and he needs to add some more pitches to his arsenal and gain confidence in using a variety, cause hitters have proven they can figure out his fastball/slider combo.

As for the trade, no, it definitely does not make sense for the tigers to trade us bonderman for renteria. Now, i would love to get bonderman in return for renteria, and if say, renteria and jo-jo could get that done, the braves would be all over that in a heartbeat. Furhtermore, I have always stated that nate robertson is not enough of a return for renteria, but maybe him and a bullpen piece could be. I would love for that piece to be fernando rodney, but i do not see that happening. If somehow and someway there bonderman to atlanta gains some leagues, i say by all means we should do what we can to get that deal done, but i just do not see that happening.

[nrmax88]

"There's a decent list of available starters I'd take in a trade for Edgar before I looked at Bonderman."

That is interesting. Because if the Braves tried to offer up Renty for Jeremy Bonderman, Dave Dombrowski would laugh at you, slap you in the face, and take a dump in your mouth before he hung up on you.

[nrmax88]

And thats no offense to Adgar, but Bonderman is filthy.

""There's a decent list of available starters I'd take in a trade for Edgar before I looked at Bonderman."

Really? Who are they? There arent even a decent list of nonavailable starters that I would look at over Bonderman if I could have any pitcher. Maybe there are 10-15 pitchers I would take over Bonderman if I could have any pitcher I wanted, agre, salary, ability, celing, all of these things considered. Off the top of my head...

Johan Santana
Francisco Liriano
John Lackey
C.C. Sabathia
Fausto Carmona
Dan Haren
King Felix
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Cole Hamels
Erik Bedard
Roy Oswalt
Aaron Harang
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Brandon Webb

Those are the guys that I would take over Bonderman right now. And I wouldnt necessarily take all of these guys over him either. He is up there with a lot of them, and I would have to think long and hard about it if I was forced to choose between say, Lackey and Bonderman, or some of those other guys. Youre underating Bonderman big time.

[FineHamAbounds]

Oh come on, nrmax... you know I'm not saying "Hey! Edgar for Santana, Liriano, Nathan and 2 minor leaguers," as you implied. I'm just saying I'd rather have someone without a 5-point ERA. And you're not really comparing him to Lackey, are you? Bonderman's a #3 at best, but I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if he proves otherwise.

[kab21]

Based on results there isn't much to like about Bonderman (looking at ERA, W-L), but he's immensely talented. I think an important thing to remember is that Bonderman turns 25 next week. And most college pitchers don't even arrive in the majors until 23-25, so he's still very young. He's only 4 months older than Verlander for example.

The bigger concern I have about Bonderman is the sore elbow he suffered last season. The MRI didn't show any damage, but stuff gets missed.

If he puts it together, Detroit is set at pitcher for a long time with Verlander, Bonderman and Miller.