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Yanks To Offer 3/40 To Posada?

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News has sources indicating that the Yankees plan to offer Jorge Posada a three-year, $40MM contract.  However, the manager vacancy will be filled first.

For those afraid of math, the contract would average $13.3MM per season.  That would nudge him past Ivan Rodriguez as the game's highest-paid catcher and serve as an 11% raise from 2007's salary.  It's a reasonable starting point, but given the season Posada had, he could do better.  I said back in June I thought it would take 4/48, but 4/56 seems reasonable now.  That fourth year might be a sticking point for Brian Cashman, but I think Posada should demand it.   

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As a Yankee fan, I won't be terribly disappointed if he leaves. He's not worth $56/4 and I have a hard time anyone will give him that.

His 2007 was 2006 with a lot of extra luck. Check out the numbers.

Some have mentioned having a move to 1B/DH in 2009 or 2010. This is a horribly bad idea. When he's not behind the plate, his value is cut in half. His defense is average - his value comes entirely from getting that kind of offense from a catcher.

I would be open to a vesting option for a 4th year based on number of games caught. That said, I don't even have high hopes for a good season in 2010, but I guess like most contracts you have to overpay in terms of years to get the guy for the short term.


But given the choice between Mo and Posada, I take Rivera in a heartbeat.

My best offer to Posada would be $42M for 3 years, with a fourth year for $13M if he catches 120 games in 2010.

Haven't there been grumblings recently that Posada isn't very mobile anymore behind the plate? I thought I read somewhere that he was having trouble getting down on low pitches.

If that's the case, then a 4th year to Posada's contract sounds like a horrible idea for any team. Posada's 36 now - and that's a hell of a lot more innings he'd log between now and the 2011 season. I can't see justifying paying a 40-year-old catcher with mobility problems $14 million a year.

Very solid points from bobo and meta, but I think Posada has leverage with the Yankees in that he's by far the best free agent catcher available(in terms of hitting, at least) and the Yankees have 0 depth in ML-ready farm catchers. The highest ranked prospect at that position is Jesus Montero who is 17 and playing in the GCL.

If not Posada then who? The FA pool is extremely weak.

With all the turmoil around the Yankees I wonder if management will feel compelled to overpay to keep the fan base happy.

Giving Posada anything beyond 3 years is just crazy. Even 3 years is high for a catcher his age with the # of games he has caught. Not a lot of examples of catchers aging well ...

I think Balt. could easily be talked out of Hernandez - by either NY team. Don't think it would take a crazy offer either. I think one of the NY teams will sign Posada and the other will end up with Hernandez - just a guess but I don't think thats overly unrealistic

He could probably get 3/45 easily from them. On the high end 3/50.

my guess is the san diego padres. they are going to want to make an offensive splash this offseason and im not sure tehy have the bullets to land adam dunn or jason bay or anyone like that. i think theyll settle for a guy like posada.

bob, I am in total agreement with you. Signing Posada for 4 years and $56 million is excessive. But the problem is that there is absolutely no replacement in sight for him. This FA class consists of Posada, Paul LoDuca, and Michael Barrett. That's about it. Either one of those other players would be a tremendous step down from Posada.

It's not so much the money. $14 million per season for an All-Star catcher is actually more of a bargain considering they are paying Giambi $23 million for 2008 and Damon and Matsui $13 million each for this upcoming season. But 4 years for a 37 year old catcher is definitely playing with fire for certain. If I were the Yankees, I would try to make a 3 year deal work ... by offering more money per season, of course. Instead of, say $14 million per season, I'd come back with a 3 year, $48 million dollar offer. $16 million is definitely excessive and would make him overpaid, but it's one less year the Yankees need to commit to. It's similar to what the Yankees did for Pettitte this past season. Pay more up front money for the benefit of not dealing with the extra year in the future.

Posada is coming off one of his best offensive seasons ever. In this over priced market, he is definitely valued at 14 to 15 million a year. Usually being a catch means you start strong and break down later on in the season, with the way posada is hitting now and the fact giambi will be gone after this year, why wouldn't they pay the four years and make him the everyday DH. He will give you the type of production you need out of that spot and would make an excellent back up catcher in a few years. If he won't resign without the fourth year, I think the yanks have to give it to him. Its like when the Met's signed Pedro, they were only going to get the first 2 maybe 3 years out of him, but he wouldn't sign without the fourth. That is why having money in baseball is so much an advantage, to make bad inefficient contracts seem not so burdensome.

My suggestion for teams is to go cheap with a platoon. My typical example is Javier Valentin/Jose Molina which would probably get you a 800+ OPS for about $3M a year. It's a step down, but not as big as the step down to LoDuca, for example.

I'm not too familiar with Valentin's defense though, and another downside is if you stick with a strict platoon you can't have starters with a personal catcher all the time.


Anyway, I'm just afraid they're going to pay for 2007's offense which was a mirage. A reasonable expection for 2008 would be something in between 2006 and 2007, but closer to 2006. Then some gradual drop-off each year after that.

I agree that that still makes him extremely valuable since it's coming from the catcher position. If he averages 2006's production over the next 3 years, then he's worth $15M per season.

But as you say, he's also going to get less mobile, less willing to block the plate (though admittedly he has gotten MUCH better at that over the past couple years), and in general need more rest.

But they are the Yankees, money is their strength, so I'll be ok if they overpay a little. The 4th year is just silly if it's guaranteed though. I still really doubt that any team will give it to him.

"I think Balt. could easily be talked out of Hernandez - by either NY team. Don't think it would take a crazy offer either. I think one of the NY teams will sign Posada and the other will end up with Hernandez - just a guess but I don't think thats overly unrealistic"

Agreed. I also think Bengie Molina might be in that Ramon Hernandez catergory. Hopefully Hernandez can rebound with a similar year to his 06 season.

Why would SF want to trade Molina?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. Hernandez should be available because he's coming off a disappointing season. Molina's not.

as someone who doesnt like the Yankees i hope they do sign him for 3 or 4 years. 4 years would be insane and even 3 years is a stretch. hes a 36 year old catcher coming off arguably one of his best seasons ever. career high in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, H, 2B. how often does a cather have those numbers at age 36? whats more likely to happen.. he continues those numbers(or similar) for the next 2+ seasons? or he regresses each season from here on out? i think hes more likely to regress.
IMO the Yankees should maybe start with a 2 year offer for a higher amount of money per year and maybe an option for the 3rd year.. but since i dont like the Yankees i hope they spend a ton of money on Posada, and Rivera aswell who i also believe is on the decline. sign them both up long term and keep trucking them out there over the next 3 to 4 years when they arnt producing as effectively.

"Why would SF want to trade Molina?"

errr...why WOULDNT they want to trade molina? they should be desperately trying to dump all their marginal vets this offseason. molina, roberts, durham. they do san fransisco no good. tehy should try to get gerald laird off the rangers for cheap, or someone like that.

I think the Zito contract was an indication that they're keeping with their "lots of mediocre veterans" plan. And how is Molina doing them no good? He's pretty cheap and one of the better catchers around. They're clearly not having a fire sale, so while I agree with dumping some of those guys, Molina should stay.

i just meant hes doing teh team no good cause theyre not going to win anytime soon. i think molina is just the kind of guy they should be looking to move cause he is probably the only one on that list with any value. i dont think the zito signing really has anything to do with the giants desire to stay in contention, as i dont see that happening for at least the next few seasons, and even then all the chips have to fall exactly right.

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