Brewers Looking For A Closer

Melvin cannot be serious about using Turnblow as the primary closer. At best, maybe middle relief as he'll get 2 outs and with Yost's help, walk the bases loaded. He simply cannot be taken seriously as the closer.

Bluejays should trade Accardo for JJ Hardy or Bill Hall + @.

Jays have other guys who can step into closer's role.

Brewers have two SS who are better than Mac.

Yeah, I never really thought about how much of a strong point the Blue Jays pitching staff is. They have a lot of depth in the bullpen and in the rotation.

I like the starter idea. Take a page out of Kevin Towers' book.

I always thought Tomko could make a decent closer - IIRC he performed well as a reliever towards the end of 2005 in LA.

Kyle Lohse could be very good, but he's probably a bit too expensive.

Here's a crazy idea - what about Jose Contreras?

Woops...

Yeah the Brewers and Jays have traded together in the past, ie: with Overbay. We need a good hitting SS, and the Jays rotation and bullpen have many candidates, including:

Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum, Litsch, Chacin, Towers, Purcey, R. Romero

BJ Ryan, Wolfe, Frasor, Accardo, League, Downs, Tallet, Janssen, D. Romero

How about a Dempster + prospect for Sheets? Cubs were putting Dempster in rotation anyways - Sheets never gives a full year which let cubs use Marshall or Veal as a SP just won't have to count on either for full year. And no - it won't be Pie or Soto maybe Guzman? perhaps Dempster and weurtz gets it done

Luis Vizcaino might be a familiar face who can do the job.

Hahaha bobo,

and not to mentioned:
"not destroying their rotation just to not get that closer"

Random thought, not that the intra-division trade would happen - Corey Hart for Marmol and Soto (or another offensive prospect)?

I could see bush being effective in the pen. He always seemed to be solid through the first 4-5 innings and then would implode. I could see him performing better in short situations. This speculation is based soley on having him on my fantasy roster from time to time. I have never seen the man pitch, so take this speculation with a grain of salt.

I agree with the Bush to the pen speculation. He's always been recommended as a fantasy player but he just doesn't look like he will make it as a starter. Hopefully the rest of the Brewers staff will rebound from their poor 2007.

Hart's pretty good but I still wouldn't trade Marmol and Soto for him. That would create two holes to fill one, that might be filled by Murton and/or Pie.

Linebrink is what he is, which is still a lot better than Turnbow and Mota at this point. Doug Melvin is a decent GM but he's not a bullpen wiz last time I checked.

If I were a Cubs fan, I would not fo Marmol and Soto for Hart either - simply because Marmol reminded me of Goose Gossage last year. However, Cubs fans need to be careful with him as he was ridden pretty hard at the end of the year by Pinella.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6455/splits;_ylt=AkY_cNAk6DoyQES_EAexy0uFCLcF

Looks like Linebrink had a bad July and August and that was it. 2005 and 2006 July was the worst month too, great the rest of the season. Sometimes that stuff doesn't mean crap, but if Linebrink was on the Brewers now, he would be the best reliever. There's a reason they still kept on going to him in the 8th. He was the best they had.

I would say that Hart for Marmol might be a fair trade, maybe the Cubs winning it a little bit, but still it would be an aweful decision. I watch a lot of Cubs games when the White Sox aren't on and Marmol has absolutely disgusting stuff and when he moved into a relief role he started hitting his spots too, as well as throwing harder. I mean the kid throws mid-high nineties no problem and I saw him throw his slider right down the middle several times for swings and misses, often multiple times in an at-bat. So really I wouldn't trade Marmol for Hart, Hart is a good offensive player but the Cubs seem set in the OF(though they might sign Fukudome).

Not sure this means anything, but in 07 Bush had an ERA over 8.00 in the 1st inning, BAA of 350. 1st 9 batters faced had a .293 BAA, and he had a 5.00+ ERA. Does this make him a good candidate for closing & 1 inning appearances???

to expand on GoGos reply ~ the 1st inning for a starter (esp young guys) is tough because they need to make sure they find their rhythm to level out their stuff over 5-6 IP... Even guys with a couple years under their belt can see huge problems there though ~ ie Bonderman...

"HELL NO.. jim hendry would laugh his ass off if they asked for marmol or soto.

first off, soto is untouchable. mainly for the reason that his value probably isnt as high as it should be. this guy is gonna put up numbers similar to victor martinez.

the ONLY way we trade marmol is to fill a RF or SS hole with a star. or even in a trade for a big time SP like Haren, etc.."

Just another fan overvaluing its teams players...classic! And no, I'm not a Brewers fan.

No, saying Hart is average does not show any ignorance at all. It shows that I realize that defense is a part of the game too and that corner OFs are a dime a dozen.

The Cubs aren't looking to the FA market for a backup catcher. That shows your ignorance.

As far as Corey Hart…

I’ll tell ya, I live in SoCal and see tons of the High-A games around here. Going to so many games (esp from 01-04) I can honestly say that Hart was one of the most impressive players I saw on the field (and there were tons of star MLers going through the league at the time). Really, he and Khalil Greene were the two players which I instantly told people to be on the lookout for ~ those two looked like they could have instantly stepped into the majors and become Mega-Stars.

Now of course that doesn’t translate into guaranteed success in the Majors ~ but this kid has some sick skills. His 07 wasn’t a fluke, and as he begins to reach the 28-32YO peak range he very well could be in a similar conversation with some of the big names around. Is it a risk because he’s young? Yeah ~ he’s young… But of course his numbers in his first full year wont blow Avg away (it rarely does with anyone) ~ it was his first full year and going forward he should be a force to recon with…

Bobo, you forgot:

"in his first full-time year"

uhhh, did ya even read the posts BiasCubsFan...

Soto has had 6 years of Izturis and 1 year of Pujols in the minors ~ how does that mean "he will be similar to V-Mart", it doesnt even say he will be better than Izturis...

And Hart? I'm supporting Hart ~ not Bobo as much... See, you seem to be discrediting Hart because he *did* produce numbers in the minors saying his 07 stats are not a fluke. Well, look at them again man before you make yourself look like an ass...

Or maybe you dont even look at MiL numbers or take their ability into consideration. Maybe you just go by players ML numbers as they suit you to form your conclusions... See, if that was the case then I can understand why you think Soto (with so few ML ABs but horrible, horrible MiL numbers) will be amazing but Hart (with great MiL numbers) who didnt produce amazing numbers in his first 1/2 year of ABs had a "fluke" 2007...

I said SOTO IS NO MARTINEZ. Whoever posted that was an idiot! Soto will hit .275 with 15HR next year. That's not Pujols. I said AWESOME for a catcher. READ READ READ! Think about the catcher position for a second. .275 15HR is awesome especially based on what we had this year (Barrett, Bowen, Kendall, etc.) It's not even close to Martinez or Pujlos. Stop putting words in my posts.

Hart has had lots of hype around him? I must have missed that. Probably when he sucked in 2005/2006 the shine wore off. I don't really care if Corey Hart comes out and hits 50HRs and steals 50SBs. I don't care what Hart does. The Brewers pitching staff will blow it again and again. Once again for you guys who think it's all fantasy baseball out there, Hart's defense is not good. It takes him down a notch.

"Hart has had lots of hype around him? I must have missed that. Probably when he sucked in 2005/2006 the shine wore off."

Dude are you even serious? The 57 at bats he got off the bench in August and September of 2005 is what you're going off of? How about you look at his minor league numbers that year when he hit .304/.375/.530/905

"Hart's defense is not good. It takes him down a notch."

Again you're just an idiot. He was one of the top defenders in right field last year and can also play a good center field. You're completely ignorant.

"I'll eat crow. I think he is going to come back down to earth and play more like he did in 2006."

Dude he was playing off the bench for most of the year in 2006. He was a starter full time this year and produced like everybody expected him to.

He was a top 5 prospect in our organization when we still had guys like Braun, Gallardo and Fielder were in our farm system and a top 100 prospect in baseball.

Oh wow, you guys are right. Don't worry, I see the light now. Hart is going to hit 50HRs and steal 50SBs.

Marmol and Soto are going to flunk out of baseball.

Here's a fun state no one can play around with:

2007 Second Half

Cubs 46-37
Card 43-39
Reds 41-40
Astr 39-42
Brew 36-46
Pira 33-49

This is why the Reds have a much better shot at winning the division than the Brewers. The only real idiots on this board are the ones who expect the Brewers to finish higher than 3rd in 2008. Aidos guys!

CubsFan,

First off let me say this ~ I didn’t realize that you weren’t the guy who equated Soto to Martinez, and I wouldn’t even be posting this message to you now had you not called me out because you perceived I was mocking you. I posted in this thread because someone (who I see now was Don’t Do That!) made an asinine statement and I gave facts regarding the two players being discussed ~ Soto & Hart. Bobo posted after me, and I added to his post what needed to be added; nothing more. When you called me out afterward, then yes, I became involved in your argument.

Now, if you say you don’t think Soto will be anywhere close to VMart, then great ~ I’m glad you atleast have some sense. You say that you feel he should hit 270ish w/15HR ~ now, I question this because of the fact that he had never hit as much as 270 in the minors prior to 2007, a fact that generally means he should never hit 270 in the majors either (except in possible small sample sizes like he did last year). Sure, he did hit it in 2007 ~ but it was his 3rd year in the league and you are bound to get used to that inferior pitching after a while… Similarly, Soto never hit as many as 15HR in the minors before 2007 either. Infact, his previous high was less than 10! Yet, last year all of a sudden he teed off on that AAA pitching to the tune of 26… See a strange occurrence there?

Now what ended up was that he was in this huge zone and confidence level in the minors against those pitchers for the third year, and he was called up ~ for the next 18G that “zone” he was in didn’t dissipate leading to huge numbers in extremely limited ML ABs. Can he keep it up? I doubt it, and honestly I don’t think you will find many non-Cubs fans that will say its even possible. No one goes from 6 years of being Izturis (which he did infact hit like) to being Pujols suddenly overnight (which again he hit like in his third year at AAA). The most probable outcome is that Soto hits somewhere in the range of .250/.310/.380 ~ ie about what his MiL number prior to 2007 say he should probably hit.

Hart on the other hand… Well really I have no clue where your beef with him comes in. Yes, he was highly touted and considered one of the Brewers top prospects for a couple years. Yes, his MiL numbers translate to success in the majors, and if you’ve seen him you will realize that his frame is massive so he is a “wait till he starts filling out that frame and he rakes” type guy. What you will notice is this, he has a really good eye for a projected power hitter and although he does SO at a fairly normal rate, his BB total is impressive at young ages (leading to a BA to OBP difference of .50+ when he was still young). He isn’t your typical free-swinging power hitter, and his frame work leads people to believe he will become extremely productive at the ML level. Add to it the speed and Def ability (which is there, whether you believe it or not) and you have yourself a toolsie guy with extreme possibilities.

Now, in limited duty over a rather large amount of time he managed to hit about LgAvg in his first real trip to the majors ~ his total OPS+ at the end of the year being near perfectly LgAvg at 101. But that’s out of a rookie in limited play, and didn’t even tap his ability. 2007 saw more of him showing up, and his numbers provided where what you would expect from his MiL stats. Honestly, you will be hearing his name for years barring injury ~ which is the only knock on him, he has been hurt a bit in the minors but the attribute it to his being 6’6” and growing into his body. I’m over that height myself, and I can tell you that I too experience back-pains and minor problems as I was growing, so it really isn’t something which people should probably be too concerned about…

So really, I myself am not a Brewer fan, I’m not saying that the Reds will suck or that the Cubs cant do anything right or that Mil will dominate for years or anything to the extent. I also never made any claims about Hart hitting 50/50 or anything along those lines, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he pulls in a 300/380/580, 40HR, 20SB season a few years form now! The only thing I was doing though is giving the solid facts which we have regarding two players in dramatically different situations ~ one being a top prospect and one being a horrible minor-league player who all of a sudden overnight started hitting like the Ghost of Willie Mays. Want to argue that, fine ~ but remember that everything I am saying is based solely in fact, not opinion, so you better come up with something rather impressive. Want to hate me or call me names because of these facts, feel free ~ nothing I can do if you don’t like them and show ignorance in an inability to accepting them and instead going on the defensive.

If you do have a rational argument to anything above though, would love to hear it…

oh look, its my ol buddy with the same old “strong” *cough* arguments of "dont post more than 2 sentences" and "all my Cubs are going to be amazing no matter what stats say"...

Yes, it got really long (and not even the longest I posted tonight) ~ but it took all of 10-20 Mins in the middle of me doing "work" so who cares...

Your argument here though is "I believe 6 years worth of some of the worst stats you can provide while keeping a job means nothing. I believe his 3rd trip through AAA is the real indication of his ability" ~ cool deal, hope the fantasy land you live in is warm and fuzzy...

Since when is 450 at bats too small a sample size to use for assessing a player's future statistics? Any halfway decent baseball stats guy would take his 450 of purely outstanding baseball into account when forecasting Geo Soto's future. I'd imagine PECOTA won't predict a .230/.280/.360 line.

cue 8 paragraph response from Darkstar no one will take the time to read....

Hummm… let me get this straight Teetz…

So, 1600 ABs over 6 years of some of the worst stats you can put up and keep a job = mean nothing at all…
But, 450 ABs facing the same inferior competition for the third year = he’s going to be great for years…

…yeah, I see the logic there… ***rolls eyes***

Thanks for putting in your Cubs-Bias pile of Crap ~ to the people who have a clue though, its obvious what is going on…

Bill James Predictions for next year are:

Games :110
ABs: 423
BA: .291
HRs: 17
RBIs: 71
OBP: .362
SLG: .487
OPS: .849

I would say those are MUCH MORE than Izturis numbers...but hey, maybe Bill James is just an idiot...

So I guess you just know better than Bill James. I would love to see a projection that doesn't have him hitting .275 and 15 HR...honestly. But the fact is that James IS the expert, and you...well, plain and simple, just aren't. His opinion is just plain better than yours....and he says that Soto will hit .291\.362\.487\.849

Is that optimistic...depends on how you look at it. If you put the most emphasis on what he has done in his last full season...no, thats right on at the worst. If you are looking at 7 seasons...sure, its optimistic. But James, Law, myself, and many, many others feel he has turned a corner..and the stats say the same. Plain and simple...think what you want, but the expert here says you are just plain wrong.

Like I said from the beginning...I'm not saying he is right. But to say that on a scale of 1 to 10 that he is about a 2 as far as hitting .275 with 15 HR is worst than his projections for Theriot. By the way...his stats for 2007 are better than his projections, so don't act like he copied them over. James has a record...like a baseball player does for a long period of time. Some of his projections aren't always good, and some are. However, there is a reason that they are still used to this day, and that is that they are about as good as any others. So...to say that he almost certainly won't hit .275 with 15 HR is your opinion, and thats fine. But the professionals (Law was Keith Law, who has his own problems, but still is a respected professional)beleive that Soto has somewhat turned a corner, which a lot of players do. So while you say he won't hit .275 with 15 HR, James, a pro, says he will hit .291 with 17 HR. I have a feeling that more and more projections systems are going to have him hitting over .275. This is just the first one, to my knowledge, that has come out. So, so far its one for one on projecting Soto to tear up the NL next year.

Some Cubs announcer? Who are you talking about?? James and Law have absolutely NO affiliation with the Cubs at all. None.

You are bringing up six years ago about a 25 year old? I would say his last full season easily is more valuable in forecasting than his 19 year old season...and every other one for that matter. Now Soto has shown everyone what his ceiling looks like...and he did it over a full year hitting .352 or so in AAA and a whopping .389 in the majors in 50 some at bats in the middle of a division race. You can say that its a fluke all you want...but he has shown nearly everyone around baseball that he is for real. He probably will never hit .350 again, but to say he has a "2 out of 10" chance of hitting .275 is simply ignorant.

Is law who you thought was a Cubs announcer? Yeah, he is quite a bit more credible than a cubs announcer when judging whether a player has turned a corner or not. He judges minor league talent for a living...thats just what he does.

About the .275 and 15 HR thing...I really could care less how many home runs he hits...but we can go with it. To say a guy that just finished hitting .352 in AAA and then came up for 54 ABs in the majors in the thick of a division title chase, earned himself a job, and hit .389 with a .667 SLG and a 1.100 OPS(!) can't hit .275 with 15HR...than fine, think what you want. But me and the other professionals say otherwise, thats all I'm saying. He has always been known as a patient hitter with a great arm. Look at the notes from PECOTA...they say he was probably worth having instead of Blanco last year. He has what is known as, and listen carefully here, a breakout season. You can call it fluke all you want...but fluke in baseball means something more along the lines of something that couldn't be sustained. What did Soto do? He continued to get better all year, and when called up, topped even the most ridiculous numbers by putting up an awesome 1.100 OPS in the thick of the division race. Even Lou was singing his praises. The best part? No matter what, he is going to be a defensive upgrade, so they don't even have to rely on these sick numbers that are being projected for him.

Anyway, fluke to me and the experts is not what Soto did last year. What Soto did last year, was break out.

So now you are giving percentages to scenarios that you made up, and acting like its fact?? Wow...

I believe James says something like 423 ABs...so there you go. But you won't get off this HR thing...and for the third time, I don't care how many HR he will hit. It will probably be in the 15 to 20 range though, depending on his at bats. But again, for a guy who just hit .352 over a FULL SEASON at AAA, then came to the bigs in the thick of a division chase and hit .389 with a 1.100 OPS...you give him absolutely no credit at all. By the way, he can also play a couple of positions, so not all the ABs would come at C for sure.

I am not going to fall for you trying to tell me he can't be as projected, because that makes him a top 5 catcher in baseball crap. You know what? If James predicts it that way...he must see something. I'm not saying that he will be right for sure, but you have to at least respect the guy's opinion, HE DOES THIS YEAR AFTER YEAR AND ITS ONE OF THE BEST SYSTEMS OUT THERE. Again, he had a break out season, and earned the MVP of the PCL, which had a LOT of really good offensive players in it. He is damn good...and you will soon find that out. Is he going to put up Martin numbers? Probably not, but you never know. He is a rookie, so he will probably have to make an adjustment once some pitchers figure out a little bit more about him. I'll tell you what though, there wasn't a scouting report in the world that was helping last year. The fact is that he broke out...and he will be closer to those projections than your "Izturis" comparison. He may even hit those projections...the experts say he very well could. Because you don't think so is fine, but it doesn't make it anything more than just some guy's opinion.