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« Odds and Ends: Santana, Hunter | Main | Heyman's Latest: Piazza, Matthews, Milledge »
UPDATE, 11-26-07 at 1:45pm: It's official, and it's worth $4.2MM plus another possible $3.45MM in incentives. Ryan Dempster's move to the rotation is official, and it looks like the Cubs may not pursue another starter (they had been linked to Hiroki Kuroda).
FROM 11/26/07 at 11:50am:
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs have signed Kerry Wood to a one-year, $4MM deal with no options. Wood apparently had four other offers for two years worth $5-6MM. The Padres, Brewers, and Red Sox were among them.
I like the lack of risk here; it's hard to find a reliever with Wood's upside for one year. I really thought he'd get two years, $10MM. Of course, I am biased as a Cubs fan. We all know Wood remains a significant injury risk.
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Yes! This can only be considered a win for the Cubs. I'm not saying he is going to be some awesome shut down closer or starter, or even be completely healthy...but he was only getting stronger last year, throwing 97 in the playoffs. This is a good signing, and Kerry took less to stay at home.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 11:53 AM
That's very surprising. I thought the Cubs were at their wits end with Wood and Prior. Thought he'd try to resurrect his career with a fresh start elsewhere. Oh well.
Posted by: AnteaterPadre | November 26, 2007 at 11:56 AM
great news for any cubs fan. i would like to see kerry continue his success as a reliever and maybe even a closer. hopefully the cubs can keep him long term after this season.
Posted by: integr96 | November 26, 2007 at 12:04 PM
"hopefully the cubs can keep him long term after this season."
Easy there...his health is still a BIG question. Too big to talk about long term contracts...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 12:06 PM
A great deal because it is one year and Wood was improving last September. This gives the Cubs a lot of options and depth at the end of the bullpen. I wonder what they'll do with Prior
Posted by: gorsboy2184 | November 26, 2007 at 12:06 PM
Nice job Hendry. Hopefully he can stay healthy and perform at the level that we once saw. Who knows, maybe if he stays healthy and effective we will have a quality closer by midseason in Kerry.
Posted by: RbCubsFan4Life | November 26, 2007 at 12:07 PM
Kerry wood is more than an injury risk... he is almost an injury definite. But there is one glimmer of hope... Lou is smart! he is a lot smarter than dusty who decided to make both him and prior work waaay too hard and cause them to get injured. i think that if wood isnt over worked, he will be an awsome reliever.
Posted by: glberns | November 26, 2007 at 12:13 PM
Once again I feel bad for Cubs fans. Kerry Wood will not be healthy. I agree there really is no risk in this signing, but lets not get crazy. The guy has not been healthy for 3 years. Do no get your hopes up and maybe something good will happen!
Posted by: wildo05 | November 26, 2007 at 12:15 PM
Too much money but the one year commitment offsets that.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 26, 2007 at 12:17 PM
I agree...it's not like we should all be thinking this is the signing of the year...because there is a very good chance he won't be healthy anyway. However, its not really a risk because its only 4 mil and one year, which is why the signing is a very good one.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 12:20 PM
Interesting since he could have went for a 2 year deal. You would think that he would want the extra security. Hopefully he turns into a fireballin reliever!
Posted by: Erik | November 26, 2007 at 12:23 PM
Excellent signing. Make him the closer - if ( when) he gets hurt Marmol gets his chance. If he is healthy and lights out life is good and is the feel good story of the league - if he is healthy and only soso then he's a 4mil middle releiver for only one yr and cubs can let him go next yr without PR nightmare. Personally - if he gets hurt again I think he will call it quits and join cubs somewhere in organization. I think cubs will sign Prior if he takes 2 yr low base high incentive deal since he won't be available for most of 08
Posted by: touchmymonkey | November 26, 2007 at 12:26 PM
If any of you read the Yahoo Sports rumor mills and posts, doesnt this brewcrew guy sound too much like that cyberdunk guy who posts on every posting thread trying to advertise his crappy site?
Tim,
Is there anythign we can do about that?
Posted by: trober81 | November 26, 2007 at 12:28 PM
I think Wood taking this deal shows that he still feels like he owes the Cubs something after getting paid 10 mil to sit on the DL in '05. He said that was why he took the incentive loaded deal last year.
That's not something you see a lot in players. I like it.
Posted by: Cynic81 | November 26, 2007 at 12:30 PM
I like the signing. It is one year and he can be very good "if" healthy. The Cubs still need another quality arm out of the pen so we don't have to rely on him if he gets hurt. But I like it.
Posted by: Oh Boy | November 26, 2007 at 12:31 PM
It's a good move for both.
Wood is coming off a small surge at the end of the year. He's trying to parlay that into 1 good season, and then a 4 year contract instead of having to prove himself across 2 years.
At 4 mil, there is no downside, because he's only surrendering a few mil in the second year, which some team would surely give him even if he flops next year.
U guys want to frame wood as some saint and conveince urself he isnt driven solely by greed with this move? You want to continue to blame dusty baker?
Go for it. It wouldn't be the first time posters on this site ignored the facts.
Posted by: bsox21 | November 26, 2007 at 12:31 PM
The official Cubs site is saying it's been completed for sure.
Posted by: Cynic81 | November 26, 2007 at 12:32 PM
I find it amusing that in the article directly below the Wood signing, we're told that Phil Rogers says the Cubs won't resign Wood. If we can only get Phil to tell us they won't win the Series in '08, I'll be happy!
Posted by: cubfever7 | November 26, 2007 at 12:41 PM
Phil Rogers keeps his record intact. He's never been right about anything!
The Tribune is just playing up Rogers' perfect record, by highlighting yet another prominent "insider" deduction.
Posted by: Gov Arnold | November 26, 2007 at 12:45 PM
Great call by Phil Rogers. He's the new Jimmy the Greek.
Posted by: Dave Polands Gut | November 26, 2007 at 12:48 PM
I hope Phil continues to be wrong, so Giants won't give up Timmy for Cabrera...
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | November 26, 2007 at 12:54 PM
Wow, that is a very solid signing. Wood could be a very strong back-end bullpen guy. But if he wants to start and is healthy enough, he'd be a cheap, short-term addition to the rotation too. Very good.
I can sort of see why Wood agreed to this; if he took a deal in the 2/8 or 2/10 range, and then had a magnificent 2008, he'd have screwed himself for 2009. This way he can try for a rebound year, and if he gets it then could be up for a 3-year deal; he is only 30.
Posted by: metafrantic | November 26, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Seems a done deal. It is now posted on The Chicago Tribune and The Chicago Cubs sites.
Posted by: Oh Boy | November 26, 2007 at 12:58 PM
Just deleted all comments from the brewcrew guy and banned him. Brewcrew, please stop emailing me and linking to that here.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | November 26, 2007 at 01:04 PM
Haha..
Bye bye Brewcrew and your crappy site! :)
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | November 26, 2007 at 01:07 PM
Thank you Tim! Best news I've heard all day! Well, I like the Wood signing too...but you get the point.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 01:09 PM
I like the signing. 1 yr/$4m for a bullpen guy isn't so crazy -- look what the Sox paid for Linebrink!
As others have mentioned, this is good for both. If Wood has a bad year or is injured, the Cubs aren't out a multiyear deal; if he stays healthy and pitches well, he gets a big contract next offseason.
Now if only someone can stop Hendry from signing Kaz.
Posted by: chris heer | November 26, 2007 at 01:12 PM
I'd rather have Wood than Linebrink and Wood is much cheaper so I think this is a win for the Cubs.
Lou does handle his pitching staff better than Dusty, but he did ride Marmol pretty hard last year. I'm worried he's a "pitcher gets stronger the more he throws" type of old school coaches. The Cubs are gonna need a plus bullpen for what will be a very inadequate starting rotation after Z, Hill, Lilly.
Posted by: Teetz | November 26, 2007 at 01:23 PM
I would have loved this deal if it had an option. As its set up, its a "let me see if I can get back on track in my own backyard before I make mega-millions across the street". He knows the Cubs will put up with his constant injuries, giving him endless "second chances" ~ may not happen elseware though, so if he is hurt early in 2008 for say the BoSox, he might not pitch in the majors again... If he gets hurt early in 08, he knows the Cubs will just sign him again for 09 in hopes he lives up to the potential he once showed them…
So being that he probably only took the deal to propel his value and leave, I would have done everything possible to get atleast a mutual option in there. Otherwise, cant really argue with it…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 26, 2007 at 01:30 PM
Good move by the Cubs. Wood might turn out to be a real asset from the 'pen since it will give him a better shot at taking care of his arm, and it's at a nice price. Dare I suggest it, but he could attempt a spot start or two.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | November 26, 2007 at 01:31 PM
When Kerry has a good year in 08, he will still give the Cubs 1st shot at a multi-year contract..
Posted by: JTurdmonkey | November 26, 2007 at 01:44 PM
Great move for the Cubbies. I heard the Astros had some interest in him after the Lidge trade and was hoping we could nab him.
Oh well. I hope they turn their attention to either Gagne or Percy.
Posted by: cords | November 26, 2007 at 01:53 PM
With the incentives, it sounds to me like they are going to give him a shot to close.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 01:54 PM
"When Kerry has a good year in 08, he will still give the Cubs 1st shot at a multi-year contract.."
...possibly; and at a comparable price to the market, right? See, a mutual option would have limited his cost to the team if he does great. It would be a "hey, we want you around and still believe in you, but we also want to protect out selves a bit. We would like to give ya this much with an option. If you cant perform in 08 then we hope you again bounch back for 09 and we will be here for you in doing so. If you do recoup in 08 then 09 would allows us to gain a little for all the time and effort we put into making it happen..."
...Ya know. Like I said, thats what I would have pushing for; but its not a bad deal...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 26, 2007 at 01:58 PM
Deal seems pricier with the incentives, depending on what they are. Not sure how nearly $8m makes sense unless he's going to move into the rotation.
Posted by: chris heer | November 26, 2007 at 02:00 PM
"See, a mutual option would have limited his cost to the team if he does great."
And a mutual option would have made the deal less attractive, hence why Kerry signed a deal for only one year instead of agreeing to a mutual option, which Jim Hendry would have preferred and probably offered.
Posted by: Teetz | November 26, 2007 at 02:05 PM
It's nice to see a pitcher like Kerry Wood give his hometown team a discount. After all the Cubs were the ones that gave him a chance to make a comeback rather than just dumping him by the wayside after all the injuries. I'm upset that Wood isn't a Brewer but glad to see he has a heart unlike the Brewers ex-closer Cordero who just wanted to make an extra million a year. Remember Cordero, you were given another chance by the Brewers after you were run out of Texas.
Posted by: BrewCrew | November 26, 2007 at 02:08 PM
I agree Teetz. The deal makes sense for both parties. This will be the 2nd year of staying with the club when he could have gone elsewhere for more dollars. Here is hoping Pryor takes the same approach and return some loyalty to the team for sticking by their injured players.
Posted by: JTurdmonkey | November 26, 2007 at 02:12 PM
Darkstar,
I agree, a mutual option would have been better for the Cubs. However, like you said, still a very good deal.
By the way Chris Heer,
8 mil for a shut down closer is well worth it, and I'm assuming thats what he would have to be to hit the incentives....but I guess we won't know for sure until we know what they are.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 02:20 PM
ohhhh nooooo! i'm so very scared to see dumpster... excuse me dempster in the rotation... that sounds like a nightmare.
Posted by: glberns | November 26, 2007 at 03:07 PM
WOO-HOO!
I still believe that the worst of his risk is behind him with Dusty Baker gone. He's at best either a setup guy for Marmol or the other way around.
Awesome work, Hendry!
Posted by: IowaCubs | November 26, 2007 at 03:11 PM
This signing has major implications for the Red Sox. Since he was a guy Theo wanted, he now needs to find another reliever to back up Okajima and Delcarmen. We might try to resign Timlin now as well.
Posted by: SierraM | November 26, 2007 at 03:46 PM
At least the Cubbies didn't give Linebrink 19m. Just another year of potential for Wood. Cubs need to move on. Maybe they should put Prior in the pen also!
Posted by: GoYard | November 26, 2007 at 04:53 PM
I'm pretty surprised he agreed to a one year deal. That indicates to me that at he's pretty darn optimistic about his futute health evev if others are a little skeptical.
I was really hoping the Brewers could land him even though I considered it a longshot.
Posted by: brewtown | November 26, 2007 at 05:06 PM
Aren't mutual options worthless?
If Wood has a great year he would surely decline his end of the option and seek more money/years elsewhere.
If he blows out his arm and can't pitch in 09 then the Cubs decline the option.
If he pitches exactly like a $4m pitcher then both sides agree to pick up the option. However, without the option I have to think that Wood would again give the Cubs first crack and that the Cubs would give Wood an opportunity.
I just don't see the situation where the mutual option ever works.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 26, 2007 at 05:17 PM
“And a mutual option would have made the deal less attractive, hence why Kerry signed a deal for only one year instead of agreeing to a mutual option, which Jim Hendry would have preferred and probably offered.”
Exactly!
“Aren't mutual options worthless?”
Not from a teams standpoint. See, the likelihood of the Cubs not trying to bring him back even if he was hurt again is slim ~ they have done it every year so far… On the other hand, he does great and Wood cant get out of it ~ he would have to be a Cub. A mutual option only needs one party to pick it up, if he did great and declines then the Cubs just evoke and he’s theirs. If they will probably resign anyway, they arent hurt with their side. Besides, they could have also attached a buyout if they liked too, meaning if he stunk and for some reason they weren’t going to bring him back it would cost them even less if he accepts and they instead evoke the buyout… Or just make it a straight team option with buyout... The option would just set a price range now instead of watching him dominate as a closer (BrewTown got it and outlined it for us) only to have to pay him like 10M in 09 (a possible huge discount over say a 12-13M maybe Tex throws out there). Option at say 6M with 2M buyout gets ya 2 years and he would be stoked if he ended up getting hurt and was ruined… Its injury/bounce-back protection, similar to the option attached to Gagne the Rangers insisted on…
I have a question on the update though;
What does that mean for Sean Marshall? I mean, all the Cubs fans here said that he was a certainty to be in the rotation and would be so good based off the 1st half of 07. It was explained that the Trax signing was only for “experience” going into the playoffs. Now Depmster is in, but Marshall is out though?
…But what about Marshall and how good he is?
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 26, 2007 at 05:48 PM
I like the signing by Chicago but Cubs fans and their front office still need to be worried about their starting rotation. They have a good number one starter in Zambrano but other than him they have a bunch of average, and maybe overpaid pitchers. Zambrano may be even over paid after watching him struggle after signing his big contract. I just can't see how Dempster is going to help out the rotation. I don't see him pitching any better than Marshall.
I think it will be good to see Wood as the closer because as a Brewer fan I was always licking my chops when I saw Dempster on the mound in the 9th. He always had a way of making things interesting and I am sure all you Cubs fans will agree.
Wood and Marmol for the 8th and 9th in either order is a dynamic duo to close out a game. Good land in Wood.
Posted by: BrewCrew | November 26, 2007 at 06:34 PM
Darkstar,
What has happened in the past is probably irrelevant. When the team gets sold before the 2009 season, barring a World Series appearance by the Cubs, Hendry will be gone. Selig is already disturbed by the delay in the sale of the team and certainly will expedite this process.
Also, Marshall will get a good chance for the 5th starter spot because he's flat out better than Dempster. After stepping back and seeing the team as a whole, moving Dempster from closer's role to the starter's role seems to be just a concession that he was a failure as a closer. Unfortunately for Dempster, I see Lou giving him every chance to win the starting spot, but ultimately making him a long man in the pen. Marshall, Hart, and Prior are all likely to beat him out.
BrewCrew, I'd rather have a dog turd pitch rather than our potential #4-5 starters. I think Lilly will fall back and Hill forward with better luck. Zambrano will be inconsistent but overall pretty damn good as usual.
Posted by: Teetz | November 26, 2007 at 06:46 PM
I am suprised to see the Cubs lying under the radar this offseason in regards to rumors in landing big name arms. You would think the Cubs have both the money and some young prospects in Marmol, Pie, and even Fontenot and Therriot to deal. I wouldn't be suprised to see them as a darkhorse in the race for Santana or Haren.
Posted by: BrewCrew | November 26, 2007 at 07:08 PM
I don't think they got the diamonds to land Santana or Haren.
Posted by: Teetz | November 26, 2007 at 08:09 PM
BrewCrew,
Hill is MUCH better than average. Look at his ERA, ERA+, SO, BB, SO\BB ration, WHIP, and pretty much any other number out there. You would have been LUCKY to have such an "average" starting pitcher in your rotation. He was better than at LEAST 3 of your starters. By the way...it was his FIRST full season in the bigs! The Cubs 1,2,3 part of the rotation is just fine, and was one of the better ones in the NL last year.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 08:26 PM
I agree...I'm not sure they have what it would take to land one of those guys. It would have to start with Haren, and be Hill, Pie, and Marmol, and I still am not totally sure they would do that for 3 very cheap years of Haren, one of the better more consistent pitcher in baseball. Maybe if you threw in Soto, but I think that the Cubs would be creating WAY too many holes at that point...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 26, 2007 at 08:28 PM
Wow… I have to say that I am so impressed with that response Teetz ~ I would have never guessed you would be able to give me a thought out, none defensive, non-bias, honest reply about your Cubs. That was a great post ~ ideally we see more like it in the future :)
And with that post, I figure you also realized what I did when I saw the incentives update ~ this deal went from looking to be a fairly good one to WTF near instantly, huh? Its almost as if Hendry just bent over and let Wood stick it to him real fast… Man I hope you guys are lucky enough to get rid of him much sooner than 2009 even…
Anyway, do hope your 4-5 pitches better than I like to give them crap for, but you don’t seem to think its possible either… Isnt this game great!
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 26, 2007 at 11:46 PM
Dark,
You don't even have a clue what the incentives are, do you? How could you possibly know? If they are shut down closer type incentives, and he reaches them....you don't think a shut down closer is worth 8 mil? Whats Rivera, Wagner, and Cordero getting, without incentives?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 12:21 AM
I'm asking that question honestly by the way, do you know what the incentives are? I haven't heard.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 12:30 AM
Adun, try to figure that one out on your own for a second, it isn’t hard at all ~ even if you do have a huge Cubs bias…
Oh, the incentives is mentioned in that link. What we know about them is this:
“performance bonuses based largely on games finished from 20 to 55”.
…And so you don’t have to look up how possible that is, Dempster (who spent a good amount of time on the DL) had 58 Games finished in 2007. Its basically, “stay semi-healthy and you get 7.5ish Million”.
…Like I said, you wont have a hard time figuring out how crappy this deal got with knowledge of there being that much in those incentives…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 27, 2007 at 01:11 AM
Ok, I looked at it, and I'm not seeing it the way you do. And honestly, it has nothing to do with bias.
Wood won't be starting the year out as the closer. He would have to earn it, and prove he can pitch three days in a row. That alone is going to take time. So they have incentives based on games ended. So...they are giving him incentives based on games finished...or basically games he finishes as the closer. He is going to have to be pitching like a man on a mission to get the closer role, and even if that was the case, it wouldn't happen right away. If he puts up elite closer numbers, like say a Rivera, Cordero, or Wagner, then they still get it for cheaper than any of those guys. How is this such a bad deal??
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 09:05 AM
Ok, then bear with me for a min...
Mil was offering something like 2/10-12ish right? And Wood supposedly gave a “hometown discount”, so we will go with the lowside of that ~ 2/10 should have gotten it done from the Cubs side in a logical world.
He gets hurt; 5M ish and they probably resign him at about the same. Ends up being about 2/10M-ish plus whatever incentives he reaches in 09, which they could have just offered 2/10 to start with.
He pitches fair but semi-hurt; 5Mish salary and they resign him at the end of the year for about the same plus more incentives. Again, could have been 2/10M-ish to start with.
He gets pitches fair to good; getting close to the 7.5ish Million ~ about 1.5-2.5M more than the other offers. They then resign him to something close to that mark and paid 14M or more for the two years. Could have been 2/10ish though…
He pitches great; 7.5M and they will more than ever want to keep him for 09 ~ but now the other teams price is up over 10M-ish so they end up paying something over 17M for the two years. Should have just gone 2/10 to begin with.
That much in easily obtainable incentives really means they offered a 7.5M contract with an insurance clause which could mean they only pay 4.2M if he is hurt all year. That doesn’t seem better than the 5-6M the other teams offered at all, and if he pitches even in the fair range the 2 year cost will end up more to much more than what they could have just gotten him for to begin with.
Best case scenario for the Cubs now is he is hurt all year; only makes 4.2 and they get him for that again in 09 ~ they would have saved about 1.5M in that case. Possibly saving that 1.5M on a useless pitcher hardly seems worth it considering how much it could end up costing them. Right now they are primed to pay him 7.5M if he does well though, which they could have gotten an extra year for only 2.5M more… But how can you really consider the “best case” to be 4.2M to a guy who was worthless, right?
Since its what he is going for on the “hometown discount” side of it, 2/10 or 4.5ish with an incentive laden option would have been extremely smart. This is just overbidding the market on a one year deal, possibly costing you a fortune in 08+09 when they try to resign him just to possibly save 1.5ish if he is hurt (and that’s not even a guarantee since it’s a progressive incentive starting at such a low mark).
Wood will almost certainly get his 2Yrs/10Mil-ish from the Cubs now; possibly milking them for as much as 17M-ish or more over the same amount of time though… Like I said, seems Hendry was on his hands and knees or something, Wood seems to have given him, well, his namesake…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 27, 2007 at 02:10 PM
ok...while you might think that joke was actually good...well, forget it, not worth it.
Anyway...Wood could pitch very well but Hendry said they didn't promise him the closer role. He is in the mix with Howry and Marmol. He might end up pitching pretty well with an ERA around 3.5 and not hit ANY of those incentives because he isn't the closer. Marmol could have an ERA around 2 for all we know, and Howry around 3. Because the incentives are easy to hit IF YOU ARE THE FULL TIME CLOSER, doesn't mean that he will hit them when HE HAS TO EARN THE JOB FIRST.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 04:22 PM
Adun, first ~ you seriously have to be so hyper-critical and nit-picky ov everything said as to point out the supposed joke I made? I began typing the sentence, got to the end where I was going to try ‘wooden staff” and realized that the players name would be reapeated so I went with namesake ~ whats the problem? Was I trying to be funny? Nope not at all ~ but thank you for jumping at it as if you are doing everything you can possibly think of to continue your quest to prove me making a mistake or whatever…
Now onto the real topic… It *is* extremely easy to reach the 30-40 range despite not being the fulltime closer when the team doesn’t have one going in. There are actually 162 games played, your fulltime closer gets somewhere between 60-70 of them. Or should I phrase it like you would for you to be able to understand: THERE ARE 162 GAMES IN A SEASON, NOT 65! (see, I too can nit pick over stuff ~ and atleast I have a good reason to do so with this one…)
But look at the Cubs last year, Dempster missed only about 3Weeks-1Month where Howry took over much of it. As a whole, Howry in about 3 weeks closing and his normal duties reached 35 games finished. A fulltime closer on duty and Howry reached 35 ~ get it? You also have guys like Wuertz (19), Eyre (17) and even Ohman (11) who racked them up despite not being back-end guys or getting save chances at all really. If he is (like you point out) a back-end guy who is fighting it out for the closer spot then he will easily be able to obtain most of those incentives. If he spends even as much as like 3 weeks as the closer you are already looking at over 35-40.
Add to it the fact that Howry has 4 BS in only 12 chances last year, 4 in 9 in 06 and 2 in 5 in 2005… That’s 10 Blown in 26 chances the last three years ~ you really think that will probably work all year?
And honestly, I don’t even think they will really end up doing that to Marmol in his third year in the bigs either, so it probably comes down to just Horwy and Wood. I mean he has what, a whole 2 ML save opportunity so far in his career? Sure, his numbers last year say he might be able to do it; but its his third year, he has tons of hype, the team is supposedly going to be competing, teams will be adjusting already and that’s a ton of pressure to add on top of the pressure from closing alone.
Its easily obtainable under the circumstances, and even if he does pitch great but doesn’t get the chance to obtain that many of them, it will still end up a bad deal because it will only decrease the 09 offers for him to do it for other teams by a small margin. Plus, I didnt even get into the fact that after 08 it will almost certainly be a 2 year deal you would have to be striking with him if the other offers are that high... 4.5ish for a “possibly our closer” type ~ fair enough. Up to 7.5 when you could have had just 2/10 to start ~ no comparison…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 27, 2007 at 05:46 PM
I wasn't ripping you apart about the joke...it was just bad, thats all I was saying. Easy there tiger.
It all depends on how Rothschild and Lou want to use him. Get it? (your favorite phrase to try and make people sound dumb) How many games finished to set up men get? Usually not as many. If he was the eighth inning guy that only came in with a lead, that would mean he would have very little games finished. And Howry stayed healthy the entire year, as he usually does. Kerry usually does not. So the incentives are a reward for staying healthy and performing well enough to go from set up man to closer. He has to prove he can pitch 3 days in a row to even be considered. Look at Valverde...Marmol could easily go into that closer's role with his stuff. He is the NL version of K-Rod. He has also already said that he wouldn't mind negotiating a longer term deal with the team before the season is even over, barring an injury or bad performance. So, it doesn't hurt them like you think it does. It gives him a chance to earn a longer contract with the only team that he wants to be with.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 08:40 PM
Sorry, I went from Kerry to Marmol and back to Kerry outta nowhere there.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 08:42 PM
No, not gonna take it easy when your being an ass just to try and nit-pick ~ you’ve done it plenty of times in the past and I’ve told you many times already its way past old. You do it here; you get called out for it!
But who said the deal hurts them? I’m just saying that it’s stupider than F*, and no where near the “good deal” it once looked like. I’m saying Hendry took a big one on this deal, that he infact pretty much walked in holding a wad of cash and ended up with some magic beans. You have the option for 2/10 and you offer up to 7.5 for 1 knowing you are going to try to make him a closer and then resign him at the end of the year? (and we all know they will no matter what he really does) They out paid everyone else in this deal that was supposedly a “hometown discount”. Yeah, if he’s one of a couple guys trying to win the closers job then he will almost certainly get atleast 30GF ~ and a strong possibility of many more than that. If he sucks or is hurt, they only pay 4-5Mish and then get him again at that cost then I guess they kind of made even ~ but isn’t that a horrible way to come to the same outcome?
Oh, and Marmol is the NL K-Rod now? You mean he spent nearly 2 years studying under one of the top closers in the game of the time? Besides, Frankie had never had a WHIP over 1.000 in about 175 IP before he became the closer, and had a full year which he was randomly used in save chances ~ plus he was closing in the minors before being called up. He was groomed to close for years! Marmol was rather horrible in his first year and has never even had a Minor League save! This will be absolutely untested areas ~ he had 2 such chances last year for the first time and blew one of um! Valverde? Again, closer in the minors and was used randomly in save chances for years before taking over the job. Marmol ~ 2 tries, 1 success, ever… I cant see them giving him many chances at saves at all ~ it would possibly screw him up for years (see Fernando Cabrera from the Tribe for a perfect example of that).
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 27, 2007 at 10:39 PM
no one here is nit picking...I was just pointing out a bad joke. I'm trying to be an ass? Why don't you stop saying "get it?" because that is being an ass.
Anyway, if Wood is the 8th inning guy that only comes in with the lead, how is he going to get 55 games finished? He wouldn't.
"If he sucks or is hurt, they only pay 4-5Mish and then get him again at that cost"
If he is hurt, they pay 4.2 mil and sign him next year for 3 mil, max. He got this money because of how strongly he finished the season healthy, throwing 97 in the playoffs. If he was hurt all year, they would sign him next year for about what they did this last year....something like 1.75 mil.
So the contract differences are:
2\10 or
2\5.95
Which do you prefer?? Its not really that hard, we all prefer the last one, including Hendry.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 10:49 PM
what??? How the heck do you come up with 2/5.95? Uhh, 4.5 + 3 = 7.5
And thats using the huge pay-cut you apparently feel a player will take after he was pretty much the opening day closer just the year before. Its also in the worst case of him being hurt all year long. But I think its doubtful he takes even less money next year after being offered up to 7.56M this year even if he was hurt all year ~ I mean he was basically hurt all of 07 and still managed that amount… So dropping the irrational 3M and going instead with a more logical 4.5ish we notice that the best case scenario would be Wood is basically hurt all year and costs the team 2/9ish over that time. Worst case scenario is he dominates and costs you 7.5M + probably 10+M on the market the following year ~ so 2/17+M. Youre saying Hendry was smart not to pay that extra 1M to ensure ya get 09 at that price instead of waiting and seeing if you will have to pay double it on top of possibly even paying all the incentives making it about 17+M for the same two years?
Ok man…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 27, 2007 at 11:49 PM
Ok, I'll go over it again.
Because he was hurt all of 2006, he signed with the Cubs for 1.75 mil last year. He ended the year healthy and got a bigger contract. However, if he gets hurt in ST or the beginning of the season, and misses pretty much the whole season, he would probably sign a similar contract next year to the one he signed last year, which is 1.75 mil. So...
4.2 + 1.75 = 5.95
Obviously, thats worse case scenario as far as his playing time, but its much better that way than a 2/10 contract where he is hurt the first entire year. Thats where Jim covered himself. Not only that, but if Kerry was hurt, he could half heartedly make another comeback, but knowing at the end of the 2 year contract he will retire. He can't do that with this one. Its a good deal for Hendry. Not a great one, but a good one.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 28, 2007 at 08:42 AM
but even if it was for 3 mil next year
(4.2 + 3 = 7.2 or 2/7.2)> 2/10
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 28, 2007 at 08:50 AM
Here is the thing Dark. You make a good point if Kerry has a very good season this year. Jim will have bent over and taken it if he becomes a very good closer and then gets a big contract next year when he could have had him next year at 5 mil or so. However, because of history with Kerry, Jim wanted to make sure he didn't get screwed because of Kerry not pitching at all due to injury. So he was too worried about that....and I'm not so sure any of us can blame him. I think Hendry would be more than happy to give Kerry a better contract, but he wants to make him prove he can earn it. Like I said Dark, you make a good point if Kerry is good and healthy. However, Jim wasn't ready to bank on that.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 28, 2007 at 08:53 AM
Dude, He would basically have to be hurt all of 08 and be questionable to start 09 if he was to make 1.whatever Million. Even then, I doubt you would ever be able to sign him for that low of an amount; he is almost guaranteed to make atleast his 08 if he can pitch at all anymore…
Then, even if we were to give the same 4.5ish + incentives to him for 2009, it would be saving like 1-1.5M max if he didn’t pitch well at all next year either, right? So Hendry basically ensured he saves about 1M if he has two horrible years where he cant even meet the incentives. Where what it could end up costing them if he does have even a fair year in 08 could be nuts... See, if he pitches just ok, meets some incentives, makes about 6M-ish from the Cubs and gets offers for 2/12-14 or more next year, Hendry will need to get atleast close to matching them and be paying something like 6(08)+6/7(09)+6/7(10). In that situation, Hendry will have paid between 12-13 (instead of 2/10) for the 08-09 and now be paying 6-7 in 2010 when he may not of even wanted him that long whether he does good in 08 or not ~ he is a risk afterall… *But*, that’s not even having teams bid “closer” type money on him, which is what everyone thinks he could be…
Really, the only way Hendry makes out here is if Wood never pitches again ~ and in that case he would be saving about 5M. I would think they would prefer some production on the field to saving that 5M though… Baring that being the case, Wood will almost certainly get 2/10ish at the very least from the Cubs and good be paid as much as 2/17-18 + more years added in…
Its just a bad, bad deal. Knowing there is the certainty that you will probably peruse him again in 09, offering between 4.5-7.5M for 1 year instead of 2/10 is just stupid. Sure, he’s an injury risk; so then make the 08 an option or add the incentives to that 2009 year ~ but don’t put them all in 08 and give yourself no ground what-so-ever at the end of the year. Wood and his agent showed themselves to be way more intelligent than Hendry here, and this once seemingly “good” deal looks like absolute crap without even considering the fact that the guy has a good chance of being your opening day closer. Signing Wood = good risk to take. This type of deal though? No, a monkey could have orchestrated better...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | November 28, 2007 at 10:53 AM
So you are admitting that its a good deal for this year, you just don't like the fact that it might hurt them next year if he plays well? Fine, I would agree with that. However, its probably not going to be a bidding war next year like you keep saying. If he is playing well, they are going to try and work out a deal before the year is even over. So they aren't too worried about what he could get on the open market. If he is hurt all year, Hendry's contract looks much, much better than your idea. If he plays well, I'm sure his thought was that he could get him extended before the year is out, and Kerry has already been quoted as being on board with that as well.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 28, 2007 at 01:58 PM