Mariners Decline Option On Jose Guillen

UPDATE, 11-3-07:  There had been conflicting reports of this, but Cot's Baseball Contracts had it right.  Guillen's player option is for $5MM, and he's already said he's declining it.  The Mariners pretty much wasted $500K in declining the club option.   

FROM 11-2-07:

The Mariners are saying they put the ball in Jose Guillen's court, but they really didn't.  They declined his one-year, $9MM option.  Now Guillen can choose to exercise an option for 2008 for $5MM or elect for free agency.  Seems pretty clear he'll pass on that.

It figured to be this way from the start; the $9MM team option really meant nothing because if they exercised it that would mean Guillen was worth more than that on the open market.  The $5MM player option only had value if Guillen was hurt or terrible in '07 and wanted to get paid anyway.

You have to figure it'll take three years, $30MM to even get in the door on a new contract for Guillen.  He wants to stay, but admits the Mariners have to make a choice.  That choice would apparently have to be benching Jose Vidro, shifting Raul Ibanez to DH, and using Adam Jones in left.  Bringing Guillen back doesn't seem likely, especially with Wladimir Balentien already sitting on the sidelines.

The Ms also officially ended the Chris Reitsma experiment.

Comments

[plh903]

3/30 will be hysterical. The Cardinals should be able to get quite a haul for John Rodriguez right? Apparently that .280 EqA and terrible defense from a corner outfielder is super valuable.

Call me crazy, but I'm skeptical that anyone is actually going to pay Guillen that much money.

[Aduncaroo]

I'm thinking 2 years 19 mil

[Aduncaroo]

that last comments represents what I think he will get...I don't however, think he is worth that. Any GM who goes more than 2 years at anything over 7 mil is nuts

[dudetheplayer]

in a world where people are saying mike cameron is going to get 3/30, jose guillen getting that amount is totally believable

[nrmax88]

Exactly, are you guys effing kidding me? Sicne when is a .290/.350/.460 and 24 HRs in a big ass ballpark not worth 3/30 these days. 3/30 is basically nothing.

[plh903]

It's a 116 OPS+, he plays terrible defense, and he's turning 32.

An .800 OPS, if that's even a reasonable expectation going forward, and terrible defense in a corner spot is not worth much. It just isn't. Like I said, that's Matt Murton/John Rodriguez territory.

[nrmax88]

Yeah, but its all about the market. Pierre got 10 mil coming off a .730 ops with horrible defense. Matthews Jr also, albeit he was coming off a strong season but still had very low career marks. Guillen should easily get 3/30

[gogopalehose]

At least Guillen has a rocket launcher attatched to his right arm.

[ZachAttack]

I love the update, Tim.

"The Mariners pretty much wasted $500K in declining the club option."

It's Bavasi...

[JerseyMetFan]

To be fair, unless Guillen signs something swearing he won't exercise it, don't put it in his hands. If you don't want him back, don't exercise it. Why take the chance?

Anyway, I hope Omar takes a good look at Guillen. Alou - Beltran - Milledge is a great OF, but Alou and Beltran are bound to miss time. Of course Milledge can play center, but I don't want to see Endy starting games. He's a supersub.

[plh903]

Those are both good defensive (reputably, anyway) center fielders. Like I've said nine times, Guillen is terrible in a corner spot, despite the howitzer hanging from his right shoulder.

We'll see, I guess. I'm not one to underestimate the crazier GMs, I just happen to think it will be really silly when someone gives him that much money and that kind of talent is basically available for free.

You want to make a bet that he doesn't get 3/30? I'm down.

[plh903]

Not to come off as defensive of the GMJ or Pierre contracts. Jesus Christ.

[Tim Dierkes]

Make it an official bet!

[kab21]

I don't think the John Rodriguez and Matt Murton examples are comparable to Jose Guillen.

a) Guillen has put up a .800 to .900 for 4 out of the last 5 years (had a bad injury the one year). Murton hasn't been a full-time starter yet (I don't know why not though). Rodriquez has 7 career HR's. Guillen has averaged 25 in those 4 healthy seasons.

b) Neither of your examples were acquired as FA's. Murton would make quite a bit of money if he was market priced.

c) A team that doesn't have any other options in the OF/DH will be willing to overpay for a consistent performer like Guillen. Not everybody has a MLB ready OF'er that can post a .800 OPS for the MLB minimum.

There are plenty of reason to dislike Guillen and say that he's not worth 3/30M. But in the end he'll get at least 2 years and 8M/yr. Probably getting close to 3/30M.

I think the same comments can be made about the entire FA market. These guys are going to get paid.

[plh903]

I'm not saying that they've hit the FA market. Any idiot knows that they have not. What I am saying is that they project better offensively and play crappy defense in a corner outfield spot. Just like Guillen.

I think that the current MLB landscape accounts for this, somewhat at least.

[kab21]

I know exactly what you're saying.

You're comparing a pre-arb player to a FA. Start coming up with a list of recent FA contracts for players similar to Jose Guillen.

How much better is JD Drew and how ridiculous was that contract?

[plh903]

Drew projects at a .300 EqA and plus defense. 128 OPS+ for his career, should probably be in CF, etc.

How about David Dellucci? Coming off two seasons of around a 125 OPS+, projects better than Guillen, I'm guessing his defense is poor since he's primarily a LF and PECOTA lists him as a DH.

To save you the trouble, he got 3y/$11.5M last offseason.

[kab21]

I really liked that Delucci signing last year. But Delucci is not even close to Guillen.

a) exclusively a platoon player

b) career high in GP is 132 (Guillen has >150 in 4 out last 5 seasons). Delucci had over 400 PA's once in 8 seasons. Part time players usually don't get huge contracts.

I really thought this a very good deal for the Indians last year. For some reason Delucci flopped this year. Maybe that was part of the scouting report on him and that's why his contract was relatively cheap.

You'll be able to find examples of guys who were questionable because of injury or age or durability and they signed a bargain contract.

I'm not a huge fan of Guillen, but his market price is easily 8M/yr.

[plh903]

To be nitpicky, Guillen has not played that many games. He's onlt broken 150 once, but was close the other three years (two closer than the other).

Anyway, Dellucci played more games in 2005 and 2006 than Guillen played in 2006 and 2007.

I think Guillen is questionable for all those reasons anyway, despite the 4 out of five relatively full seasons. He hasn't been consistent at all in his career and is on the wrong side of 30.

Anyway, like I said, we'll see. I'll definitely take the under on 3/30.