Odds and Ends: Santana, Hunter

J.C. Bradbury needs to lay out how he came to his conclusion. All he says is:

"The projection is based on annual salary growth and aging. The estimate of a player’s starting value is based on the previous three seasons of hitting performance, with a simple adjustment for position that does not account for quality of defense. "

That's pretty limited, isn't it? It doesn't say anything about the player's injury history, defensive ability, the market for their position... there's a lot that his calculation doesn't take into account.

Not to mention that he doesn't explain HOW annual salary growth, aging, hitting performance etc. are taken into account. For all we know, "hitting performance" means BA and nothing else.

I completely agree with metafrantic. i can simply write that i have a formula that equals out to the torii hunter signing being right on the money. he needs to explain what and how he arrives at that. based on age, injury, and career numbers, i dont see how 18 mil is justifiable.

What does the Hunter contract mean for Andruw Jones? I don't see any way that he and Boras will agree to any offer for less and I doubt any team would be willing to offer more after his sub-sub-par '07 season.

Perhaps this makes it more likely he would sign a 1 yr deal (say $20M) to re-establish his FA value and go for a 7 yr $140M+ deal after the '08 season.

In that scenario what are the likely teams to grab his services?

Hmmm....

I hope the Giants aren't in the lead for Cabrera. That would surely mean Lincecum is gone. He was pretty much the only thing that kept many watching.

The Giants have so many holes, I'd rather they sign Fukudome or trade for Tejada....both would be cheaper investments. Even Jones if he'll sign a one year contract.

I wonder if Cabrera would be ready to sign an extension with whatever team he ends up with. Giving up a grip of talent for a 2 year rental would suck!

Right, and they also said theyd never pay "big" money to middle relievers also, but you kind of have to roll with how the market changes i guess if you want to compete when you have a terrible farm system.

Looks like the Angels paid a full $15m over the next best offer. That's awful.

As an Angels fan I can see offering a little bit more but $15m? Ouch.

Wonder if this is payback for Chicago punking the Angels on Konerko a few years back.

Hummm…

So Hunter is LgAvg from 03-05 (98, 104, 106), has a little better 06 (112) and a career year in 07 (122), but sense we only look at 3 years:
‘Hunter = 4th-5th highest paid player in baseball, making about 18M a year…’

And that’s not even taking into account the fact that he has had 3 straight injury years prior to 07, and has only played more than 150G twice in his 11 seasons…

See, not sure if I’m buying that one. I guess under those standards though, the other horrible contract the Angels game out to a rather average hitting CF last year looks damn near brilliant:
OPS+ totals of 90, 99, 102 of Mathews = 10M/YR
(He also has the injury history and a, similar to Torii, 1/9 seasons with 150G)

“Wonder if this is payback for Chicago punking the Angels on Konerko a few years back.”
…If it is, jokes on them…

If the Part about the Giants is true, and Hunter ends up being the “big bat” to protect Vlad in the Angels lineup… well, let’s just say hahaha…

& BigDaddyJenks,
But wouldn’t it seem more logical to break that rule for say a young, successful SP then for a BP arm from SD with 4 years of declining numbers? If you are worried about 4 to the SP, instead of 3, it means it’s really the 3rd to 4th year you fear injury the most. I would think 3 years of the SP + 1 wasted would still be much more valuable and cost efficient then the 4 years of unknown production from the regressing reliever… If the Reliever is no better than a AAA option then you pretty much wasted the full 20ish M/4Yr instead of the maybe 12-14M 1 year contract of the SP. If the Reliever is fine for one year before tanking, you still lose money (about 15M-ish)… 2 years he is fine, 10M wasted ~ and I would think a SP for 3 years would be worth the 2-4M extra cash… It does just seem strange; you would almost think they would be less likely to give a BP arm 4YR over a SP without injury history…

Hey Tim,

Any word if a team put in a waiver claim on Josh Phelps?

I think the Giants would be close to the top of the list and definitely should put in a claim...

I don't think Lincecum will have arm problems...His motion was specially designed by his father to work with his small frame. He doesn't even ice-down after games.

Giants fans are extremely enamoured with Timmy Franchise and there may be a riot if he goes...

“You put the money where its most needed. Our bullpen is a bigger problem then our starting rotation. That's another reason going to 4 yrs was ok, cuz guys don't blow out their arms throwing 70 innings a year, they do it when they get close to 200.”

I’m not arguing “where it was needed” or whatever ~ we are talking solely about a club not wanting to give pitchers 4 year deals giving one to a reliever…

And although you are correct on SP possibly throwing out their arm, what you fail to point out is how hard they are to replace if they do. You cant even get LgAvg production from youre basic AAA SP, hence the reason guys like Garland become 3-4 types (3 on Avg team, 4 on deep rotation clubs).

See, LgAvg from a RP is common though, and its something you can generally get from nearly any AAA guy you pull up. The Sox had bad luck in this last year, but the point can be seen in guys like Boone Logan, Bukvich, Wassermann, Broadway and Phillips. Each of them out-performed Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal ~ you know, the “experienced BP guys” on the club… If Linebrink produces like Thornton or MacDougal 2-3 years from now (which is extremely likely because of the declining stats) then the 4YR deal would be a joke compared to one for a SP…

See what I mean?

Oh, and Linebrinks numbers went way down ~ but that’s another argument as well and really doesn’t need to be recounted here too.

cano for lincecum would be a great deal

for the yankees of course

Bigbadboobyjenks, I agree you're bullpen was awful last year but you're rotation with Contreres, Floyd and Danks will be the problem this year. Bill James projects Danks and Floyd to have ERA's around 5.75 next year.

Henry, the one fielding position that the Giants don’t need is 1B. They have multiple prospects who can fill that spot more than adequately, its everywhere else on the field that they need guys. Tex wouldn’t fit into their club…

Its also why the Giants probably shouldnt be thinking about Cabrera ~ but to each their own...

All due respect to Bill James but Danks and Floyd will post ERA's from 4-4.50. Floyd had an epiphany it seems like, from someone who watched his almost every pitch. I hope he can keep that confidence for the rest of his career because the lack of it is the reason he is a near-bust. Danks was extremely unlucky last season and should have probably posted around a 4.8 ERA, and that should get better because it is his second year and shouldn't have a dead arm like he did in the second half, plus he's older, more experienced etc.

Like said, the Sox problems are not starting pitching. We have starting pitching up to our shoulders, just not proven in the majors.

I'm never able to afford any of the projections so no. I don't know if they are free but if they are that insane it doesn't matter regardless.

I've looked on every sports website and they say the Angels are in the clear where did Phil Rogers here that.