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Extension Offer On Table For Sabathia
C.C. Sabathia's future may become a popular topic during the 2008 season as he heads toward free agency. He's in line for a megadeal - he turns 28 in July and won the '07 AL Cy Young award.
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer confirmed yesterday that the Indians have made an offer to Sabathia. Hoynes expects negotiations to drag at least until the regular season begins, since Sabathia wants five to seven years and the Tribe doesn't want to go that far.
Jake Peavy had a well below-market deal running through the 2009 season, and about a month ago he inked a contract extension covering the 2010-12 seasons for $52MM. The three-year extension also has a club option for 2013. Peavy's contract will be the model for Mark Shapiro, rather than anything Johan Santana signs.
Realistically, I think the Indians could top out around four years, $72MM plus an option for 2013 in their offer to Sabathia. Will Sabathia make that concession, or will he go for the free market and maybe get seven years, $140MM?
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CC is a top 5 pitcher in the game. I'd take him over Peavy for durability reasons.
I see a serious injury phase coming for Peavy that he will never fully recover from. Could be in 08.
CC livs in Cali. I'd be surprised if he doesn't use this opportunity to play for a team on the west coast. Everything I read from Cleveland says he likes it there, but I predict he plays for a team closer to his family.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 08:13 AM
I could not imagine CC taking an extension for half the money he could make on the open market. If the Mets do not get Santana they will easily pay 6/100 or more. Not to mention the Yankee's/Sox depending on who does not get Santana. CC would be very wise to just hang around and pitch another great season and see what happens.
Posted by: coach king | January 07, 2008 at 08:32 AM
Durability reasons?? Peavy has hit 200+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons. CC has only hit that mark twice with 4 years in between them(2007, 2002). I could live with you saying CC is better because he pitches in the AL, but durability issues are a non-factor with Peavy.
Posted by: grandmasterb | January 07, 2008 at 08:35 AM
The history of 7-year pitcher deals is horrendous. Are they really about to become the norm?
Posted by: walkoffblast | January 07, 2008 at 10:45 AM
grandmastrb,
im PREDICTING peavy suffers from serious injury.
This is based on his motion, stuff and as u touched upon, abuse so early in his career.
u see, predicting implies that what im saying will occur in the FUTURE.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 10:49 AM
"The history of 7-year pitcher deals is horrendous. Are they really about to become the norm?"
Likely not but with 2 of the very best pitchers in the majors popping free at the same time, its not unrealistic. More of a blip than the start of a trend, I'd think.
(BSox, I'm with you. Love Sabathia going forward; would rather have him for 5-7 seasons than Santana.)
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I find this very interesting. Peavy is probably the 2nd best pitcher in the game after Johan (it's close for Peavy with Beckett) but his deal is well below market. It's kind of funny that an inferior pitcher in CC is probably going to get a much better deal just a month after he signed.
Posted by: djskilbr | January 07, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Of course Peavy is more of a risk.
When was the last time you saw a significantly overweight pitcher run into health problems? Those guys are usually rock solid and can be counted on for at least 7 years of top production.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 07, 2008 at 12:03 PM
BTW - not all that close between Peavy and Beckett.
Beckett was about the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the AL last year. Granted he had an outstanding post-season. On the other hand, his ERA was north of 5.00 just a year ago.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 07, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Better Pitchers Than Peavy
Erik Bedard
CC Sabathia (at least jus as good. Probably better.)
Felix Hernandez (at least jus as good. check how unlucky felix was in 07. in 08 we will see his even out. even with avg luck, he'd post comparable stats to peavy when considering the tougher league.)
Francisco Liriano
Aaron Harang (take ahrang out of the bandbox and build a warehouse for all his cy youngs.)
Brandon Webb
I think all these pitchers are better than peavy. i think you could make the argument for vazquez and daisuke too.
Put daisuke and vazquez against the NL in petco and they'd post similar stats. except for when the rockies play at home, the NL west lineups are AAA lineups.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 12:53 PM
by the all star break, we may need to add cole hamels to the list if pitchers better than peavy too.
othrs that might be better than peavy by the break:
zack greinke (u heard it here first)
oliver perez
dustin mcgowan
yovanni gallardo
clayton kershaw (yes, by the break)
josh beckett (maybe at least as good right now)
joba chamberlain
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 12:59 PM
A lot of Peavy haters here.
Odd seeing as how the man just won the NL Pitching Triple Crown last year. And was first in WHIP.
And he's only turning 27 this year.
And he pitched 223 innings last year.
Also, I would at least expect Roy Oswalt to come into conversation as one of the best in baseball.
Barring injury, he's probably going to get better.
And for the record, Dice-K is overrated. If he starts pitching down in the zone, he'll be better, but everything looked up to me last year.
Also, Liriano is even more of an injury risk that Peavy.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 01:46 PM
PS. The injury comment was about Peavy, not Oswalt.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 01:47 PM
And also, Peavy was better in away games last year than he was at Petco, so I I'm not sure why you arguing about Petco helping Dice-K and Vazquez.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 01:48 PM
its an aberration. That park helps pitchers immensely.
i agree, oswalt is one of the best there is.
diceK is not overrated. he's underrated. the yankees got a hold of him, but they got a hold of most pitchers. 200 Ks for his first go round in american ball.
diceK is elite. give him a chance to adjust.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 02:14 PM
You lost me BSox. Peavy was awesome last year and its not because of his home environment, he's just a great pitcher. I agree that I'm not sure he'll last forever, but you can't debate his past.
(As for Matsuzaka, unless you're arguing that a move out of Fenway would somehow improve his below league average BB and GB rates, I'm not seeing it. He's got a great K rate and the ability to be very good, but he's nowhere near elite in anything but cost at this point.)
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 02:17 PM
joe morgan,
i admit i went a bit crazy in my list there. peavy is certainly elite.
my main point is there are several comparable pitchers at this point. the difference between him and say a sabathia type guy is a horrible NL west and that park.
johan is jus a different tier.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 02:28 PM
yeah bsox...you went more than a little crazy. That second list made it really hard to feel like you are credible at all...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | January 07, 2008 at 03:51 PM
the second list is full of guys taht have the upside to be as good as peavy. casual fans don't see jus how close someone like greinke is to being peavy.
greinke has WICKED stuff. if he can command his curveball a bit more consistently and sell the change a bit more, we're talking MAJOR breakout. he really is THAT close.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 07, 2008 at 03:59 PM
I know where you are going with it...but I just think its a little ridiculous to say that these guys have the ceilings to be what Peavy already is. The fact is that they aren't...and probably won't be. Honestly, there isn't one on that list that I would say the Odds are that they ever have a season like Peavy's most current. So while I get what you are saying, you are valuing stuff more than whats actually happened here. Peavy is the better pitcher than all of those, and odds are that he will be next year too...exception for Beckett...you never know with him.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | January 07, 2008 at 04:16 PM
"BTW - not all that close between Peavy and Beckett.
Beckett was about the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the AL last year. Granted he had an outstanding post-season. On the other hand, his ERA was north of 5.00 just a year ago." -Bjsguess
I'm not going to go into some silly argument over whether pitcher x is better than pitcher y or what not, because you can never know with complete certainty how a pitcher would perform in a different environment. I think you SHOULD keep in mind, however, that Beckett is pitching in Fenway, one of the more batter friendly parks in the majors.
Beckett posted a 2.18 ERA on the road this year in 13 starts compared to a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts at home. His BAA was also .014 lower on the road and whip was .12 better on the road. I'm not telling you to believe those differences are entirely based on park factor (because they almost certainly aren't ENTIRELY) but at least a bit of it likely is. How do you think most of those better (in your opinion) pitchers would fair with Fenway as their home park?
As for his 5.0 ERA in 2006, yah, that is certainly something to keep in mind when trying to predict his future performance/current worth, but he was also getting acclimated to a new environment. Maybe it's suggests the possibility of future inconsistency but considering this years performance was MUCH closer to his 5-year average I'd be more inclined to believe otherwise (admittedly i'm a Boston fan though, haha).
The home vs away splits for all the other Boston pitchers that exceeded 100 IP in case you're interested (didn't include whip since espn doesn't have the home/away split for it and I'm too lazy to bother doing the simple math needed to calculate it for everyone):
Tim Wakefield
--Home: 5.27 ERA 94 IP .278 BAA
--Away: 4.26 ERA 95 IP .249 BAA
Curt Schilling
--Home: 4.06 ERA 82 IP .285 BAA
--Away: 3.65 ERA 69 IP .263 BAA
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
--Home: 4.86 ERA 92.2 IP .266 BAA
--Away: 4.02 ERA 112 IP .230 BAA
Julian Tavarez:
--Home: 5.16 ERA 61 IP .294 BAA
--Away: 5.13 ERA 73.2 IP .269 BAA
Most of them, with the sole exception of Tavarez, have a very noticeable drop in ERA and they all exhibited a large drop in BAA.
Posted by: gfulla | January 07, 2008 at 06:20 PM
Gfulla: I agree with a lot of what you said and park factors definitely have to be looked at when talking about pitchers. My problem is that PF's can be misleading because they aren't split by handedness. Like a LHP is at a huge disadvantage in Fenway but since park factors are general, RHP's gain the same bounce. So in a full season, Lester is at a greater disadvantage but the righties on the staff all get the same PF benefit as him. Once the PF splits get more mainstream they'll be a lot more valuable.
Also, as an open challenge, I'm excitedly waiting for the first time a Boston fan mentions park factors when discussing Pedroia or Lowell's 2007, Varitek's career OBP or Jim Rice's HoF candidacy.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 06:39 PM
(Part of the last comment isn't fair now that I think about it. When Lowell was a free agent, plenty of Boston fans mentioned his Fenway splits. So scratch that and we'll go with the other three, especially the last one.)
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 06:40 PM
This would be my top 15 sp in the league.
Johan
Peavy
CC
Beckett
Webb
Felix
Hamels
Haren
Lackey
Bedard
Verlander
Oswalt
Harang
Kazmir
Zambrano
Posted by: nyyfan | January 07, 2008 at 07:10 PM
I meant to say that CC deserves a big fat contract similar to the one Johan is going to sign. To sign for anything now would be stupid unless CC doesnt think he can stay healthy this season. Either way CC is going to be a very rich man.
Posted by: nyyfan | January 07, 2008 at 07:11 PM
Good list. I'm a slave to QERA so I'd probably sub in Smoltz and Javy Vazquez (wildly underrated, still hate that we quit on him) for Zambrano and Oswalt but hard to argue.
There is absolutely nothing that would make me happier (in a baseball sense) at this point than having the 2009 Yankee team photo feature Sabathia and Hughes. I promise to not complain about any other Yankees moves for the next 16 (or whatever) months if that happens.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 08:38 PM
(And that post didn't make sense at the end either. Bad night for me. I guess I need to offer a 16 month, non-complaining window from the start of a Sabathia signing if Hughes is still on the team. I can't stop complaining right now in hopes it happens. That would just be silly.)
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 07, 2008 at 08:40 PM
bsox - 2 things
First, you're telling me that dice-k should be given a chance to be elite...thats fine, but please don't try to tell me that he's better than an already established Peavy. Not a chance.
And you say Greinke has wicked stuff so he could be better than Peavy by the break. Then why not include Edwin Jackson in that list?
Most pitchers that get drafted have some good stuff. Some also nasty. That doesn't make an elite, or even above average pitcher on it's own.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 10:24 PM
add Daniel Cabrera to that list as well.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 10:30 PM
actually i'm not even sure about Jackson now...I may have been thinking about someone else...but regardless, Daniel Cabrera is a good example.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 07, 2008 at 10:33 PM
I will never get over Daniel Cabrera. He'll be a 35 year old mop-up guy and I'll still be convinced that next year is his breakout season.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 08, 2008 at 10:51 AM
hahaha
the worst part is...it seems like he's been around forever, and he's only turning 27 this May (we have the same birthday).
Probably the best example of someone who was rushed up to the bigs too soon.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | January 08, 2008 at 01:06 PM
Day after my brother (same year as well) although my brother has a much better concept of pitching. He works for a supermarket chain.
Yeah, 27 IPs above A ball probably isn't enough seasoning, huh? Sad thing is that even after Mazzone, he throws like that kid whose stuff is better than the hitters can handle. Just has never developed a shread of pitching savvy outside a few starts here and there.
I really thought this (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200609280.shtml) was when it all clicked. Wrong again.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 08, 2008 at 03:47 PM
"Probably the best example of someone who was rushed up to the bigs too soon."
Not sure anyone can go ahead of David Clyde.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | January 08, 2008 at 03:48 PM
haha bsox,
you sound like a team fan who thinks everyone on the team is the sh*t. daisuke has yet to prove himself, so dont talk.
as for c.c., i dont think he's worth the 7 for 140 but its better than zito's contract (and im a giants fan)
Posted by: dsty1e | January 08, 2008 at 05:29 PM