Mayo On Fernando Martinez and Johan Santana

I love F-Mart, and I'd love to see him stay, but I'm just tired of this whole thing.

Make the deal and get this crap over with.

"Besides, who says it’d be for just one year of Santana. I think that any of the teams who have been rumored to be in the Santana hunt would make a serious run at re-upping Johan for several years after 2008."

Meant to quote that whole piece in my last post.

Right though? Are you sure that Q and A wasnt with Dee Edge instead of Jonathan Mayo?

Normally, I don't respond to comments after something like this, but I couldn't resist. First, to be slightly fair to the Astros (and yes, it was a mistake), Santana hadn't pitched above A ball, so there was some projection to be made. But that's why the Twins are good at the whole player development thing.

Now, on to those who didn't care for my response to the question. I guess I should've stuck to analysis of Fernando Martinez, but did any of you actually read the question posed to me:

Would the Mets regret trading him and a few other prospects for one year of Johan Santana?

See the part that says "one year of Santana?" Just wanted everyone to realize I was actually answering the question asked of me and putting it into proper context. Sorry if I offended your sensabilities, but at least I read the question before sounding off.

Someone better make another real, honest-to-goodness trade one of these days or we're going to be at each other's throats!

"Santana came from the Rule 5 draft? My God, the Astros are retarded. That's worse than the Mets Kazmir move."

Have you ever looked at Santana's minor league stats? Or his first two years in Minnesota? There's not a whole lot there to suggest that he was going to become Johan Santana. I suppose the Astros could have kept Santana and left one of his A-ball teammates unprotected instead. Say, Roy Oswalt, maybe. OK, that's not fair. Tim Redding was also on the same class A team. Easy call there, right? Except that Redding struck out 141 batters in 105 innings that year.

"There’s such pressure to win immediately and there’s the financial ability to fix things via free agency or trading for high-priced players in the future. "

Also, no. If the Mets make this trade, how can they possibly go out and pick somebody up who can actually help at all? They would already be adding a ton of payroll in Santana, and who could they package to make a deal? Their system would be dry. And the free agent market is not gaurunteed to have the guy that you are looking for in a given year anymore.

Land-man, didnt you gauruntee the other day that Devine wouldnt be traded to Oakland to the point of calling somebody an idiot for suggesting it?

The Mets aren't trading prospects for one year of Santana. Nor are the Twins trading away just one year of Santana.

The deal would be for what the Twins currently possess. That is, one guaranteed year of Santana plus exclusive negotiating rights to a multi-year extension for his services.

You and I may assume the Twins would not or could not take advantage of those exclusive rights (though I honestly won't be all that surpised if they DO re-sign him after all). But those rights DO have value. In fact, given that any trade would be conditioned upon a new contract, those rights have considerable value to any trade partner.

Those rights ASSURE that the team trading for Santana would retain his services for several years. People can whine all the want about how their favorite team should just wait a year and sign Santana as a FA and keep their prospects, but I think we all know that one of two things is going to happen by mid season... either he's going to be re-signed by the Twins or he's going to be traded to someone who will immediately sign him to an extension. That's why, if you really want him, you cough up the package to get him now.

I'm curious to see what people think about the value of signing Santana long-term is, when discussing his trade value.

You're getting one year at well-under market value ($12M salary). But then after that you're signing him, presumably at market value. So in theory, all the extra years have no value (if they do, then FA Santana is underpriced).

There are a number of arguments:

1 - Santana won't be available as a FA in 2009, and ace pitchers like that are just not available as free agents, especially when they're below 30 years old.

2 - If we're trading all these super prospects, we have to keep him for more than a year.

If #1 is true, doesn't it just mean that he's underpriced? If ace pitchers like Santana are never available, shouldn't he command a HUGE premium? Honestly, $20M a year seems like a massive bargain, risk aside. Sure, it may be a 7 year contract, but if Zito is getting $17M a year, Santana HAS to be worth $25M per year on, say, a 4 year deal - right? Then it's only $13M per for the next 3 years.

Anyway, I propose that one of the two statements are true:

1) Santana's asking price for an extension is too low.

or

2) When discussing his value, only 2008 should be considered, because if he's signing at market value for 2009 and beyond, then that's a wash and provides no value to your team.

Thoughts?

Bobo, I agree with you, but its more the length then the money in the case of the teams involved that could be scaring them off a little bit, dont you think?

Personally, I would love to give Santana a 4 year contract worth 120 million even, before I give him a 7 or 8 year deal at 22 mil per. Wouldnt you rather pay him 30 mil over his age 29-32 seasons and then see what happens after that?

I agree that it's the length that's scaring teams off, but I think it's irrational.

Take your example - 4 years for $120M vs. 7 years at $22M per (though his price is supposedly 7 years at $20M per, right?).

So if you do the 7 year $140M contract, then you're only talking about 3 years (age 33-35) at under $7M per season. I think any team in baseball would sign up for that.

So no I wouldn't rather do $30M for 29-32, because the remaining years would be so cheap.

BUT - I see your point - and if the numbers were adjusted enough (say the first 4 years would be $25M each, compared to an 8 year $180M contract), then yeah - probably.

finally, someone with some sense! you don't keep potential stars when you can get a proven star, not to mention an ace lefty. and it wouldn't be for one year, it would be for 7.

to get johan without giving ANY major league talent is a steal and would put the mets at the top of the NL for sure. they have the money, they have the need. johan is more proven than bedard and more durable. just get this over with.

Not to throw you guys for a total loop in your calculations ~ but its something to think about... Are we even sure that he is dead-set on 7 years? Or even if he is; would it be 7 years on top of the current deal or a 6 year extension creating 7 years total? If he isnt insisting on 7 years and will sign say a 5 year extension while re-working his 08 contract for 6 total years under control ~ well, then you guys would have your numbers way off and the value would be much, much higher than some of you may be thinking... And even if it’s a 6YR-Extention for a total of 7 years, that isnt the 8 years you will have him that many of you are fearing…

Getting him now before he hits the FA market and being able to include 08 in your negotiations seems the smartest way to ensure you will not have to approach the max years and amount he could reach on the open market. Allowing him to pass could just mean it costs you 2 more years of contract you didn’t want to go and who knows how much more cash if some reckless owner decides Johan is the one guy he will not let get past him (see Hicks actions the last time a mega-star in his prime was available for the bidding)

Bobo,

Zito isn't a great example. Sure, he is getting $17M, but most people think he isn't worth it. I don't think it automatically bumps up the value on everyone else.

If your #1 is true, I would argue that the premium is paid in prospects to the Twins, not to Santana directly. Really, all of these packages of prospects are the equivalent of a posting fee.

It took an epic and historic collapse last year for the Phillies to take the division.

The only one the Mets need to replace is Glavine. Seeing as Pedro will have a full year, I'm content with Pelfrey or a FA in the 5 spot.

We got down years from Reyes and Delgado. Alou only played in 87 games. Castillo was only here for 50 games.

My point? All the Mets need to do is sign a FA pitcher (Lohse, Livan, Colon, etc.) and they should be considered the best team in the NL East.

Would Johan push them even farther over the top? Sure. But to say the Mets NEED him is simply untrue.

Good points. Agreed. I would love Santana, but it will make us a win now team with no future at all. With a move like this, the Mets wouldnt get any real contribution from anybody coming out of their own system for atleast 3 or 4 years. I am willing to wait and see if Johan or CC makes it to free agency, atleast then you have the big contract but you have your system. To the guys bashing the Mets system, fine. They are young, and not as far along. Doesnt mean they dont have the talent. I keep them around, sign Livan, make a run at CC or Santana next winter, and if they arent there, then so be it. Lets finally see what our kids can do. Guys like Pelfrey and Humber have extremely low value right now. Might as well give them a shot.

minnesotatwins, from the way that was phrased it makes it seem like the top 50 prospects is a known fact "these guys are, these guys aren't" which makes me think that to you it is and you just looked at one site's rankings (probably MLB.com). Meanwhile, there are a number of other sites (projectprospect, minorleagueball) that think Mulvey, Guerra, and Gomez are all top prospects. Also, I think your argument seems a lot less valid with you being a Twins fan "Oh, darnit, Omar is gonna take our prized Johan. And all we get is your entire minor league system. Shoot." (I hope you sense the sarcasm)

Having said that, I think that the deal is acceptable with either F-Mart OR Gomez. I hear max's problems, but I still think getting Johan would really help this year. Also it's not entirely true that the Mets would have no farm system, people seem to forget that because of the glvine release the Mets have 2 1st round picks AND a 1st round supplemental pick. Compare that with no picks until the late second round the last 2 years and it appears that the system could be replenished quite quickly.

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team.asp?id=NYM&sn=2007

The above site is where I got the graph from. Interesting stuff.

On September 25, the Mets had a 94% chance of making the playoffs.

first off, i would LOVE for the twins to resign johan, for 6 more years. that would be my first move. he's 29, throws mainly a fastball/changeup combo, so isn't very vulnerable to shoulder problems, and is a class act on and off the field. but since management doesn't want to do that, we need to make the team better and get the best players we can. yes, i am a twins fan, but i can speak from a general baseball fan's perspective that the mets want/need johan.

reasons:
- pedro isn't a sure thing
- oliver perez could go right back into the gutter at any moment
- john maine is no ace
- the rest of the free agent pitchers are not even worth mentioning, they will not help the mets at all.

johan would instantly become #1, easing a little pressure off everyone else. the mets need an ace, no matter how much you say the opposite.

also, delgado is a year older, same with alou. they will not be the same players when they are actually not hurt. why they signed luis castillo i don't know, he's got leg/hip problems and i don't see him becoming more than a bunt reyes over to third after he steals second guy.

And just to elaborate a bit on what kind of class Ollie's 2007 K/9 was in (I was wrong, seven posted better single season K/9s) the guys who have posted higher are (in order from highest down to Perez):

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Kerry Wood
Nolan Ryan
Doc Gooden
Curt Schilling
Hideo Nomo

Ryan, Johnson, and Martinez are HOFers. Schilling's a borderline HOFer. Wood and Nomo won ROY then got injured. Gooden won both.

Oh, and the guy next on the list after Perez you ask? Erik Bedard. Johan Santana would be 12th on the list, just after Sandy Koufax.

Overall Ollie's 2004 season K/9 is the 18th highest single season mark of all time. Randy Johnson alone appears six times in the top 10. Bedard's 2007 was 20th all time. Santana's 2004 was 29th.