Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

It will be a real waste if Jeff Keppinger is not the starting SS on the Reds. He looked very impressive last year. Him and Hopper at the top of the order was just plain dangerous.

You are telling me that if you had Bedard you would trade two years of him at 3.5 million for one proably going to be really good/maybe great/possibly amazing in two years?
I don't think this would ever actualize since the O's are looking to fill positions and not add one guy with potential...but still, Im baffled that this is even being considered...Bedard has to be worth more than one prospect...right!?

Oh that is definitely the case in terms of the Oriorles, they are going to ask for more than Bedard is probably worth, the thing is that, in reality, the value of bedard may only be worth bruce, or may not even be worth it at all.

While I think Volquez has a betetr shot to be effective in this division I can't help wondering if the Reds would be better with a Hamilton/Bruce/Griffey outfield and moving Dunn...using that $$ elsewhere. Maybe a Dunn for Ervin Santana+ kind of deal...would have given the Angels a power bat and decent obp guy that they need and the Reds a better pitching option and left them with a better defensive outfield.

Bedard makes the Reds a playoff team. Having Bruce does not. As a fan do you want a playoff team or not? Next year, the year after, blah blah blah, a lot of things can happen between now and then.

The reds are a playoff *contender* with him, not a sure thing. You would be lucky if you were to get more than 25 starts out of him.

Bedard for Bruce in a 1 for 1 trade will not be accepted by the Orioles.

Jay Bruce is an outstanding talent with an enormous ceiling, but Erik Bedard is an outstanding talent with enormous production.

Truthfully, if I were the Reds, I wouldn't trade Bruce either. But don't fool yourselves into thinking Jay Bruce alone will net you Erik Bedard.

Bedard can't stay healthy. He isn't worth Bruce straight up.

The best thing abou the 08 Reds is their top 3 SPs.
Harang - Stud
Arroyo - Awesome #2
Baily - is going to be a stud this year.

Best top 3 in the NL Central.
(not say much - but still)

Toss out Bedard's lousy April and he had a 2.20 ERA for the season, in 150 innings. Moving him to the NL would only make him more deadly, and having him with Harrang would be a nasty 1-2 punch that only Arizona could beat.

His injuries aren't arm-related either. He'll be dangerous in the NL, challenging Peavy for the best pitcher in the league. With that said, why wouldn't Baltimore want to ask for Bruce?

What about Bengie Molina. The guy was as solid as they come behind the plate and was clutch all year for the Giants.

Throw him in a package with one of the Giants young pitchers for Edwin?

Do it. Go Giants!

Bedard is a good pitcher, not a great pitcher, he can strike people out alot. He can't pitch 200 innings, he can't stay healthy consistently, he can't beat GOOD teams, if you look at his wins and strike out totals, pretty much all his strikeout totals were against teams like the rangers and d-rays which isn't exactly an accomplshment. I wouldn't trade bruce for bedard ever. If both bruce and votto live up to their 30 home run guys and the reds keep dunn. They will have a 7 guys hit 20 homers or more - encarnacion, ross, dunn, bruce, votto, phillips, and maybe even gonzalez if he can stay and play all year and hit like he hit last year. If you have that many players hitting that many home runs, you don't need a second ace. As long as you got 2 to 3 guys that can stay under 4.00 era you will mak playoffs easy. Trading Bruce would be a huge mistake and the reds need to stick with what they got.

Now, I'm a Cubs fan so this is somewhat biased, but I think that Zambrano, Lilly, Hill is better right now that Harang, Arroyo, Bailey. While realistically Zambrano isn't the stud he's marked up to be, he and Harang (who is underrated and most would say is less of an ace) are about equals. After that, Lilly in the NL is better than Arroyo and Hill is better than Bailey (at least for this year, and in all likelihood next also).

Having Bedard would give the Reds a huge edge, though the Reds were 13 games behind the division winner last year, and I don't think Bedard is +13 over replacement. Also, the Cubs and Brewers only got better this offseason, so they are only a contender at best and shouldn't trade Bruce

Does anyone even remotely screen these comments. No REDS fan would or should even consider giving up the future for possibly a 2 year rental. Do we make the playoffs with Bedard, maybe. Does anyone remember how the Braves got started on there great run? Teams like the Braves,A's

I agree also, Z, Lilly, Hill is a TON more reliable than Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey. For all you know, Bailey could be an absolute bust.

Harang isn't a lesser Ace. He is legit, period. I don't know of anyone that can look at his stats and not say he is legit. I used to think the same thing before doing the research, but the guy is great.

Wow, bedard is not a great pitcher. he has consistantly beaten the yankees and redsox the last three years...so i guess mr. nl central that those teams aren't good. so i take it you saw his 17 k night against the rangers...well buddy if you average almost 11 a game...it means just that...you average 11 ks against anyone you face. As for his inujuires...he really hasn't had injuries...he has been overworked because the orioles have no bullpen. He has missed games for precautionary reasons only because he had TJ surgery before. seriously dude, i'm not going to trash talk, but watch him pitch. if he is on the reds next year, you will be singing his praises and when asked about mr. bruce you'll say who?

Also...when talking about pitchers, era is irrelevant. WHIP is what you should be concerned with, it dirrectly translates to runs scored against....which translates to how likely a pitcher is to win any given game. Oh...that is Walks and Hits per Inning Pithced. Bedard's is 1.08...that means he might give up a baserunner...but there ain't no budy knocking him in = he is AWESOME!

Oh come on did somebody just say the reds had the best #1, 2 and 3 in the NL Central...

The Brewers and Cubs BOTH have better...

the Brewers with-
Sheets- contract year best medicine for a guy that suffers those nagging non arm injuries

Yovanni Gallardo- The Prospect that ACTUALLY performed well in 2007(unlike Bailey)

Carlos Villeanuva- 12 startes 3.01 ERA

The Cubs rotation of

Zambrano
Lilly
Hill

are also better

Harrang and Oswalt are the 2 best pitchers in the NL Central... Sheets is up there only when staying healthy, thats why I drop him below Zambrano... Zambrano is 3rd in the Central..has the best stuff but way to volatile and to up and down...

Lilly and Arroyo are basically the same type of pitcher... Yovanni is an Ace in waiting...

Bailey very unproven... Hill.. you saw what he could do last year with a sub 4 era... and Villanueva has earned an every day starting job with how well he has done the last 2 years...

In 4 seasons as a starter, Bedard has averaged just over 164 innings. So, while I don't know his injury history, I don't think a team cares much if a player can't play because he is injured or because he might become injured; he still isn't on the mound. To me, both situations characterize "injury prone"

Also, let's consider the horror of giving an injury prone, flamethrower to Dusty Baker.

I think Reds fans should be frustrated with the Cordero signing. As a small market team, it really locks you into more money than your closer need cost. Also, it was likely a win-now move when a win-now move might be ill-founded.

I'd rather have A.Jones plus 2 others from Seattle then just Bruce.

Did you also notice over the past 4 seasons the Bedard has gotten better in every important category (WHIP, ERA, K/9).

And if you traded for Bedard and he left after 2 seasons you would 99% most likely get a 1st round draft pick for him.

I think Baltimore and Cincy have similar parks. not the same but both are hitters parks more then pitchers parks. But in the NL he will be pitching to pitchers not Ortiz, Thomas, Giambi, Hafner, Sheffield or any other DH.

I think he would still be around 15-20 HRs allowed.

Bedard is a broken bat pitcher. BA against was .212. He gives up a home run every once in a while, but very few doubles.

nrmax88, Keppinger really isn't that great defensively. When playing shortstop he couldn't reach a lot of balls that a normal shortstop could have and his arm was rather weak for the position. He's got a nice bat and if Votto proves he can't hit lefties next year he could be a shoe in for a righty/lefty platoon at first which would minimize needing him to be good defensively and keeping him in the lineup.

About Bailey, I don't think it's possible to look at what Bailey did last season and think it sticks. He came up and was ok..played well against Cleveland, got beat up by the Angels and then laid a hurting on Oakland. Then went to Philly and hurt his groin. Went on to lose a few more before being DL'd for pretty much all of August. Came back in September and pitched ok. I refuse to accept the idea of penciling him in as a stud or anything even close to that. Likewise I don't think it's fair to write him off as garbage because the injury affected half his MLB starts.I'm waiting for 08 before juding him either way.

About Bronson...yeesh. For a long time he was on-point and his wins don't really reflect how well he pitched.He suffered from low run support and a god awful bullpen. Same with Harang, I can't remember the exact number but the bullpen blew somewhere around 6 games where he was the winning pitcher when it was handed over to them.

I think people are fooled into thinking the orioles have to trade now, just because a few well known writers suggests that trades will help the team. Anyone who has a clue about the orioles knows that the actual rebuilding process isn't goinig to start to reshape itself until next offseason(this is a very hard sell to most fans). The orioles are in such shambles right now, that all they can do is prepare for the rebuilding process, build up the farm, and try to instill structure in a chaotic organization. By 2009 our 06 and 07 draft picks will be knocking on the door, at that point contracts for Mora, Payton, Gibbons, Huff, ect will all be coming to an end. We will also have a better idea of the abilities of all prospects we are currently interested in. And at that point we will have to trade roberts and bedard because we will finally be in full rebuilding mode...sucks but the actual rebuilding isn't going to begin until next year whether we like it or not. So everyone should chill out about roberts and bedard, grab some popcorn and hope and pray the o's win 70 this year and all our young birds tear it up in the minors. What does this equate to...the orioles aren't goinig to trade unless they are overwhelmed to point of not being able to turn down a deal...Bruce, Cueto, Bailey nothing less

I'd like to point out that in 2006 Harang led with 16 Wins, along with a bunch of other guys, and lead in SO. It was the 1ST TIME A PITCHER LEAD IN SO AND WINS WITHOUT GETTING A SINGLE CY YOUNG VOTE.

Also it's completely wrong to just say Bailey won't be good. He has bad stats due to a groin injury that he tried to pitch through. A guy who was universally considered the #1 or #2 pitching prospect doesn't go from elite to a nobody in 1 year because they had a small injury and didn't do "great" in MLB as a 21 year old. He still has a 95 MPH fastball, and still has an amazing curve. And he still is trying to improve his change up and control. He did have a 3.07 ERA in AAA, which isn't that bad.

To say Bailey is a failure because of his bad conrol also is a wrong assumption. There are pitchers like Kamir, Cain, and Zambrano who are have worse control than Bailey, yet are aces because of their great stuff and dominance. Bailey is good, and he can be an ace. A league average starter in 2008 is reasonable and he should continue to improve with more experience against ML piching.

I'm not saying the O's deserve that trade or it would be reasonable, i'm just saying that is what it would take to get bedard...i don't think bedard will be traded. I just wanted to shed some light on the O's situation for the M's and Red's fans. O's are in a pretty good position to sit back and see what becomes available.

After you look at those numbers aganist the Yanks and Red Sox remember that David Ortiz and Giambi will be replaced with a pitcher in the NL Central. I just don't think anyone, including the fans, are making the right arguement for the Reds. Im an O's fan and Im obviously going to suppot them more but it simply benefits both teams so much more to make the deal. Adding Cordero and Bedard would make them absurd!!! That would lock the NL Central, Cubs could run, but thats it, maybe the Mets...maybe? As an O's fan I would love to at least be able to watch 25 games next year(every game Bedard pitches) but all in all I would like to get this farm system going and hope a few of them turn out, we are not contenders, we are not even close. Reds become unstoppable, O's get on the right track, its win win...right?

What exactly are the O's waiting for? Hold onto the guy another year. Suffer through another terrible year. Delay rebuilding yet again.

The O's are a mess. The sooner they continue the rebuilding process the better. Landing a package around Bruce or A. Jones would go a long way towards rebuilding.

Mark,

Read my earlier posts, that is exactly what i am saying. Yes it is absurd AND unreasonable and yet that is what it will take. Why should the o's get rid of bedard for less? he is the best pitcher in mlb and under contract at 3.5 for two years. Exactly what we will try to build around. We have over 700 days left to trade him(if we want), why would we sell ourselves short. Again, we will take an overwhelming deal and thats all...by no means will they get rid of him for less. That is the one luxury we have right now. And mark, those guys havn't PROVEN anything, they are PROSPECTS...i agree that they MIGHT or PROBABLY be good, but neither Cueto or Bailey will ever be as dominant as Bedard. We already have bedard, so mark ask yourself why we should trade him for guys that will PROBABLY and MOST LIKELY NEVER be as good as BEDARD....understand now? Its rather simple. We have two directions...hold on to bedard and build around, or trade and empty out someone elses farm system. It can go either way, both benefit us.

Concerning Bedard and the Reds; I think a trade for Bedard would be STUPID!!!

First, maybe Bedard strained the oblique because his elbow was barking and he changed his pitching motion to compensate for it. Wouldn't be the first time an athlete has done something like that.

Second, Bedard has an absurd winning percentage against the Devil Rays, Rangers and Royals. Something like 14 and 2. Against the rest of MLB, he is under .500.

Third, Dusty Baker. I don't care what other people say, Baker hurts Pitchers and shortens their careers. Russ ortiz, Sean Estes, William Van Landingham and a couple of others for the Giants and then Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for the Cubs. If Prior LOVED Baker so much, why did he sign with the Padres?? Because Baker WASN'T their Manager and PETCO is a much BIGGER ball park than Great American Small Park (GASP, for short).

End of this post and will continue in another.

Continuing on.

In 2007, the Reds won 72 Games. Of those, Kyle Lohse won six and Homer Bailey won four. So, if every other Pitcher puts up the same Win totals in 2008 as they did in 2007, Bedard would have to Win 10 Games just for the Reds to have the same record as in 2007. If Bedard were to Win 20 Games (unlikely because of teh Offense) the Reds would still only have an 82 and 80 record, which would be far short of Play-Off contention.

In 2007, the Reds Offense averaged bout 4.8 Runs per Game while the team ERA was 4.9. However, in nine Games that Bronson Arroyo (9 and 15 record) started, the Pitchers gave up four Runs or less and the Reds LOST ALL of those Games. Six Losses were by a score of 3 to 2. Two Losses were by scores of 2 to 0 and one Loss was by a 4 to 2 score. So, the Pitching WASN'T the problem in those nine Games.

Adam Dunn, in those nine Games, hit a combined .138 with ZERO Home Runs and 1 RBI. If he were a "Run producer" he could have done a little more and the Reds COULD have won at least three of those Games, if not more. Add to this the fact that Dunn struggles against West Coast teams in THEIR ball parks (Reds have a losing record against West Coast teams when playing on the Road) and adding Bedard won't help much against those teams.

Then there is the rest of the Offense. KGJ is an injury waiting to happen EVERY year and if the Reds were to trade Bruce away (after trading Hamilton) there would be nobody to fill in that hole.

Alex Gonzalez is a streaky, Strike Out prone hitter who tries to hit Home Runs too much. He also SUCKS against Left Handed Pitching (as does Dunn and Hatteberg). So, if Edwin E is traded away that leaves one less Right Handed batter who hits well against Left Handed Pitching (not to mention a guy who tears it up with RISP).

Also, A Gon was NOT all that on Defense for the Reds. He committed more Errors just transfering the ball from his glovbe to his throwing hand than Keppinger did all year. I think Keppinger made three Errors in 2007. One was just a plain boot. One was a throwing Error (committed in a rain storm) where he lost his grip while throwing the ball to First. The third Error was not really his fault. He threw wide on a play to First and Jorge Cantu (NOT a First Baseman) didn't come off the bag to catch the ball. Because of this, the runner was safe at First Base.

Continuing on.

ctownboy,

hopper for dunn? you must be dumb or something.

please stop continuing on...

Oops, forgot to add this.

When you think of Run producers, you think of guys like Albert Pujols. Yes, he hits Home Runs but he ALSO finds ways to drive in Runs OTHER than by hitting a Home Run. Dunn is JUST a Home Run hitter (and not as good as he should be). He can hit a ball over 500 feet but can NOT hit Home Rusn to the opposite field. Why? Because he DOES NOT TRY TO.

In 2007, Brandon Phillips hit MORE Home Runs to the opposite field than Dunn even though he hit 10 LESS Home Runs over-all. With Dunn's power and the EASE in which GASP gives up Home Runs, Dunn SHOULD be hittign 50 or mroe Home Runs a year. But isn't. That is because he WILL NOT swing at outside Pitches. THAT is why7 opposing teams put the shift on. Dunn (and KGJ) try to pull EVERYTHING.

Anyway, back to Run producers. In 2007, there were 19 guys in the NL who hit 30 or more Home Runs. OF those, 12 had an RBI to Home Run ratio of 3 to 1 or higher. That means, for every Home Run they hit, they had at LEAST three RBI's.

Two of the guys who didn't have that high of a ratio were Alfonso Soriano and Young of Arizona, who spent MSOt of the year as lead-off hitters. Dan Uggla of Florida was another and he hit second most of the year. That leaves four other guys and Dunn was one of them.

You say big deal? Well, it is. Hitting a three Run Single is hard to do but hitting a three Run Homer isn't. Dunn has had MANY opportunites to drive in RUns with Singles or Sac Flies but hasn't. He just tries to hit Home Runs. THAT hurts the team.

In 2007, Phillips had MORE (5 to 4) Sac Flies than Dunn even though he is MORE of a Ground Ball hitter. For his career, Phillips has like 12 Sac Flies in 1,700 plate appearances and Dunn has 16 Sac Flies in almost 4,100 plate appearances.

In 2007, the Reds lost six Games that Bronson Arroyo started by scores of 3 to 2. How big would a Dunn Sac Fly have been in ANY of those Games??

Dunn hits for power AND gets on base at a massive clip. He does more than hit home runs. Not saying he is some elite outfielder, and his defense is awful, but you can't discount the OBP that he brings. A player with his OPS is definitely valuable, but I do agree that he would be more valuable as a DH.

Aduncaroo......... you are probably correct. I just am excited to see a Brewers team make the playoffs. Im not biased. Im a DBacks and Yanks fan but I just felt maybe the Cubs had their chance already. Possibly the Brewers are still a year away. It is definately do or die time for the Reds though. So possibly its between Reds and Cubs. Wood and Marmol are very strong. They should have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Bob Howry,he has always been strong. I know nothing about FUC-YOU-DO-ME, but maybe he is worth 2 games. Maybe they can get to the WS this year but im not convinced about their starting pitching. That question may not allow them to win the division. I think the Brewers have finally made the final move by getting Cameron. Moving Braun to LF should get them 2 games. Cameron another 2. Jason Kendall calling the games is worth 2 games. Eric Gagne is worth 2 games. I honestly just think the Brewers will walk away with the division. Kapler will also help and so will an older Gwynn. I think this team could go very far.

Oriolesmagic,
I can tell you for a fact that the Reds are not going to trade their number 1,2,3 prospects for a guy for 2 years.

I still keep hoping that we hang on to everyone and just sign someone to be a fill in for one year like Lieber or Hernandez or Armas Jr. Please not Brett Tomko, Josh Fogg, or Eric Milton. Let the kids take some lumps in the back 2 spots and see how they grow over the year. If they flop try one of the other prospects we have for pitching. I see 4 or 5 guys with good potential in the Reds Minors right now. Let them see what they can do and if the first two dont work out try two others.

Hey, I will be surprised if Jason Kendall isn't replaced by June. He couldn't throw me out. If the Cubs figure out a way to get Brian Roberts, they could steal six bases opening day with Roberts, Theriot, Pie and Fukudome.

They like Kendalls gamecalling ability. They need someone like him with alot of experience hes been around in the past. Plus if he hits .300 again who cares if he cant throw someone out. Losing Cordero does suck but Gagne pitched very well except for the few months in Boston, which makes sense because wasnt he being used a setup guy??. it just wasnt a good place for him. I think Braun will start in LF starting in Spring Training with Chris Gwynn and Gabe Kapler filling in for Cameron.

"They like Kendalls gamecalling ability."

Who is they? The guy sucks. I'm a Cubs fan, believe me. I know. He is not good, period. he will not be good, he will not throw anyone out, and he will not hit .300. Get ready for your backup to get some significant time as everyone starts turning singles into doubles.

Gagne was good last year except for a few months? A few months is a big chunk of the season. He isn't what he used to be, and because he is in the Mitchell Report he will probably have to stop using, making him even more prone to injury.

I think you have a good point about Braun staying in LF from the beginning, that is probably what is best for the organization. Still, Gagne and Kendall

"Should be a great race down the stretch last year."

Next year, not last. Sorry about that.

Funny how within hours of me writing that im not convinced of the Cubs rotation getting them the division , they go and sign Leiber. Am I the man or what? I bet their GM read my post! Still im not convinced they have what it takes. Their rotation is shoddy after Zambrano. I have never liked Marquis even though he has alot of career wins. Leiber is like their version of the Yanks bringing back Clemens, "too old too late" The Brewers are going to walk away with their division maybe the Reds or Cubs get the Wild Card.

You said so many dumb things I don't even know where to start.

"Gagne being used as a setup on short notice in what is currently biggest market in baseball during the pennant stretch can spook someone big time."

So this is a quality you want in your closer?? Hahahaha! If he could close in LA, you would think the guy would be ok in Boston setting up...