Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

Trading Bruce for Bedard would be a horrible mistake. For someone with such significant arm issues and less than one full season of really good production, Bedard seems to be overrated. His elbow seems like it is ready to pop. If a team signs him to a 5 year deal, they would assuredly have to expect to lose a year to a year and a half of that for Tommy John recovery.

Hmm, guess I missed that. Shouldn't that make the pain he was dealing with later in the season even more of a serious concern?

Sorry, but I'm really starting to notice a lot of people over compensating for pre-moneyball veteran preffrence.

In my mind Delmon Young and Jay Bruce are at least comparable in terms of their 5-tool abilities. Their minor league lines look amazingly similar. So... its TOTALLY OK to trade Delmon Young for a yet-to-be-proven Matt Garza, but NOT OK to get 2 years of Eric Bedard, a guy that K'd 220 last year in only 28 starts. Same point on the Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez trade. If either one of these trades was deffendable/celebrated you've got to at least consider a Bruce-for-Bedard deal.

I understand there are other factors at play, most notably the issue of time under team control. But for the cost of only one highly touted but still unproven prospect you could have two years in the NL central of a guy that struck out 220 in a shortened season in the AL east? I'd at least consider that.

In my opinion many journalists and bloggers are beginning to over-value prospects.

Bedard missed a couple of weeks. The O's front office decided to just let him take the rest of the season off. From May until the last start before he got hurt he allowed 36 ER in 142 Innings.

Call me crazy, but I'm still not sold on Bruce. And this is coming from a guy who has had him in his roto league for 2 years already. The strikeouts scare me. K/BB ratio is pretty consistently about 3 to 1, and he didn't improve at all as he's progressed through the minors (granted, he's been pushed hard), which doesn't bode well for immediate success in the majors. Never mind the fact that he hasn't even played half a season above A-ball.

I am probably as guilty as anyone at overvaluing prospects, but to get 2 years of cheap Bedard who will completely dominate the NL for a guy who I don't think will have any success until 2009 at the earliest, I have to think long and hard about that.

I'd say do it if it was before the Hamilton trade. But they kind of did that to clear a spot for Bruce. Now, if they traded Bruce, they would have a hole in the OF, and Dunn and Griffey probably aren't staying too long. That pretty much just leaves Drew Stubbs. If it was before the Hamilton trade, I'd do it. Bruce is a very promising prospect, andhe has all the tools and minor league success, but bobo is right, that K/BB rate is concerning. He'll be good, but that'll limit him until he can get more disciplined. Bedard seems healthy enough and I think he has proven himself. He would be evem better in the NL Central.

This discussion is pointless. Bruce isn't going anywhere and what young player doesn't have trouble with his K/BB in the upper minors?

Not Joe Morgan--

I guess those are nice-n-flashy pseudo sabermetrics, but explain to me how that doesn't just mean that Bruce is a more of an all-or-nothing type hitter.

Their OBP's and SLG's are nearly identical. Anybody can figure out these are just fancy ways of saying Young's stats are more AVG driven and Bruce's are more all-or-nothing power driven. The high K's and low BB's back this up.

You can google cool stats all you want, they tell a similar story. And, yes, they are still very comparable players.

And if you want to compare players:

Erik Bedard: 3.83 Career ERA in 658 Innings with 639 K's

Matt Garza: 4.47 Big League ERA in 133 innings with 105 K's.

Compare that. Experience IS worth something.

I agree completely. I would not trade Bruce for anything if I were the reds. If they had cubs money then maybe, but they cannot afford to trade there young in expensive talent like Bruce if they want to have any kind of a long-term future. It is as simple as that.

The first line of the second paragraph should read "Personally, i think that considering how much top talent the Reds already have (Bruce..."

But the problem is that most of the holes in their lineup are already being filled by young players. Why not take the older players and move them for younger players so the team can grow together and be really really good in a couple years, instead of trading the young players for old players to try to be pretty good and leaving your team in a crappy position in 2 years.

If the Reds take the route you're recommending, then they could end up becoming the White Sox really fast: a half decent aging team with a few high quality players and an awful farm system. Those kind of teams normally dwell in mediocrity for years.

SPJr.: I completely agree with your first post. Not taking anything away from Bruce's expected future success in the majors, I disagree that it is absurd to consider trading Bedard for him. Moreover, I see why the Reds want to hold onto him (all of the same reasons everyone else wants him) and that is one of the main reasons why this deal will never happen. In '05, the Reds drafted him 12th, one pick ahead of the Orioles. The Orioles were fully prepared to draft Bruce had he still been on the board and was the guy Baltimore really wanted (the Orioles ended up taking Brandon Snyder in what has turned out to be one of the shakiest picks in that quality Orioles draft). I note the Orioles extreme interest in Bruce because they will continue to push to have him included in the deal for Bedard, and the Reds will continue to refuse to include him. But Mayo's response to the question being so adamantly against the idea even was troubling. Bedard is a young, LHP with a contract that would allow him to pitch for the Reds for the next two years. People cite his health but he's already had Tommy John and strained obliques is a kind of strange injury. One thing you cannot argue with were Bedard's numbers last season. A season that the Orioles practically projected happening coming out of Spring Training. Bruce is my favorite prospect in the game, but for now he is just a prospect. However, for now Bedard is just a pitcher coming off an incredible career year...making them both somewhat of prospects...

think Keppinger could play avg def at SS?

2B-Phillips
1B-Votto
RF-Griffey
3B-EE
LF-Dunn
SS-Keppinger
CF-Bruce
C-Ross
P