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« 2008 MLB Free Agents | Main | Odds and Ends: Cano, Colon, Lowry »
Ryan Howard and Arbitration Comparables
ESPN's Keith Law has some good info up on his personal blog. I have always wondered about this stuff. In the post, Law discusses how little sense it makes for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard more than his service time calls for. But also in the comments Law explains which players Howard's agent can compare him to for an arbitration hearing.
Law says:
For comparison purposes, a player may be compared to players in the same “service class” in the current year or in prior years, and third- and fourth-time eligibles may be compared to free agents who have signed in the current year or in prior years. Single-year salaries are more powerful comparisons than multi-year deals, since the individual salaries within a multi-year deal may be skewed due to bonuses, backloading, or other factors.
Law notes that Howard's comp could be Miguel Cabrera, who made $7.4MM last year. Howard logically deserves more than that based on a stat comparison, making the Phillies' $7MM submission seem low.
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Don't see why Howard deserves more than cabrera unless all your counting is he
Posted by: metsdude13 | January 23, 2008 at 10:33 AM
sorry that should have been home runs...stupid iPhone keyboard
Posted by: metsdude13 | January 23, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Some analysis I did shows that Cabrera and Pujols are pretty good comparables and that $7 million probably is about right. He's certainly closer to 7 than the $10 million he's asking for. Here's the link to my write up:
http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/2008/01/ryan-howard.html
Posted by: Balls, Sticks, & Stuff | January 23, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Saw this from Jayson Stark at ESPN today, and figures it applies to this thread. With these numbers, I can see why Howard's group wants to ask for 10 mio.
"Nobody in history has hit 47 homers or more in each of his first two full seasons. Nobody. Or here's another way to look at it: After 410 games in the big leagues, Howard is already up to 129 homers. Want to know how insane that is? Here's how insane:
That's 72 more than Junior Griffey, 62 more than Barry Bonds, 54 more than Mike Schmidt, 44 more than A-Rod and 31 more than Albert Pujols at the same stage. The only player in the last half-century who was even within 25 homers of Howard, after this many games, is Bob Horner (who was exactly 25 back, at 104).
In fact, you want to know the player in history who is most comparable? It's that George H. Bambino Ruth. He dabbled in the pitching profession for a few years before finally getting his shot as a full-time hitter at age 25. Whereupon he mashed 54 and 59 homers respectively in 1920-21."
Posted by: wayne gomes | January 23, 2008 at 12:12 PM
I agree with metsdude; why is Howard better than Cabera? They seem pretty comparable to me.
Posted by: Devlsh | January 23, 2008 at 01:34 PM
"Law notes that Howard's comp could be Miguel Cabrera, who made $7.4MM last year. Howard logically deserves more than that based on a stat comparison, making the Phillies' $7MM submission seem low."
It also makes Howard's submission of $10MM look high, quite high. Plus, if you take Howard's advanced age into account I wouldn't necessarily assume he deserves more than Cabrera.
Posted by: Slugdog | January 23, 2008 at 02:54 PM
For Howard vs. Cabrera, it's not about who you'd rather have (I think a near consensus would be Miggy) or who may be a better hitter, but who has been more productive based on service time. Howard's numbers are incredible in that regard. I do not think he'll get his 10 mio, however
Posted by: wayne gomes | January 23, 2008 at 03:42 PM
I guess there are worse people to be compared to than the Babe.
Miggy is a great player. No doubt. I think people have lost their mind though undervaluing Howard.
Howard's numbers:
YR1: 313/425/659/1084
YR2: 268/392/584/976
Year 2 is amazing and the guy was dealing with injuries.
Miggy's numbers:
YR1: 294/366/512/878
YR2: 323/385/561/946
Howard's numbers are much more impressive. The first full two years of Howard's career he pounded out 105 bombs compared to Miguel's 66 dingers.
From an arbitration standpoint, looking exclusively at years of service and performance Howard should be well north of Miggy's figures. I'm not all that familiar about what is taken into account in weighing the numbers but I don't think age is supposed to be used. Howard also plays in a much more conducive environment with a better supporting cast. Again, not sure how much that comes into play.
If I were an arbiter I would think he is closer to $10m than he is to $7m.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 24, 2008 at 01:51 AM