Thoughts On The Johan Santana Trade

finally!!! the madness is over!

I have to believe this trade had more to do with Santana's preference to play in the NL (his no-trade clause was his clout), as well as the Twins desire to keep him from pitching against them.

Of course, I'm sure they also think the players they've acquired are going to be very good.

I have a feeling Kevin Goldstein will overrate the prospects, as he almost always does.

And the reason I am going to become a closet alcoholic is....

Honestly, the more I look at it, not as bad as I originally thought. I just have one question, HOW, just HOW, did Minaya get out of trading ANY of the players that were "required" for by the Twins. Jose Reyes, no. F-Martinez, no. My hat is off to the guy, though I hate him so much. Frank Wren, are you paying attention? (obviously not considering his past 2 trades).

"Comparing Guerra to Hughes?

Even as a Sox fan that disgust me."

As a Yankee fan, I'll disagree. Guerra has the POTENTIAL to be better than Hughes. It all depends on his health, since that has been his major problem so far during his minor league career.

Minnesota has a great track record in developing young pitchers, so this is only going to aid in Guerra's development.

His top comparable according to PECOTA is Felix Hernandez, and last I checked, that kid was pretty special. Again, this is all speculative at this point, but he could be the best player moved in this deal when all is said and done.

The Twins rolled the dice on this deal, going for potential over proven results. Should be interesting to see how it turns out.

he COULD be

a lot could happen between now and whenever he is ready.

He is no phil hughes simply because he has ace potential.

You cannot make that argument.

As stated above (in different ways) the deal hinges on what Guerra becomes. If he even reaches legit #2 status, this has to be considered a win for Minnesota. If not and there isn't a top flight player involved, it becomes a fast guy, two back end starters and a bust and it looks bad. Guerra could be an ace, he could be Jesse Foppert. Minnesota banked on the former and backed it up with some relatively safe players. Not a bad deal at all but if Hughes and Ellsbury were available, its a tough pass in hindsight.

If you've listened to Peter Gammons, I think he measured the deal well.

Smith took a gamble that the Yankees and Red Sox would fight over Santana...they didn't.

The Twins were reported to have offered Johan 5 yrs, $100 mil.

His rejection makes it obvious that he has no desire to stay in a mid-market town that he certainly has trouble identifying with, and CERTAINLY receives less attention than he will in New York.

It sucks, but I can't blame the guy.

I miss Kirby Puckett.

Well, for once, both my Yankee brethren and the rest of you Sox fans can actually breathe a sigh of relief on an off-season move. Here is my take on the Santana deal, the winners and losers, in order. Let me know what you think.

Winner [huge]: Santana

Everyone is missing this one. First of all, the Mets didn't give up anything of any value to get the best pitcher on the planet, so his new team is strong and not gutted. Secondly, he goes from what was the most competitive division in baseball [this honor has returned to the AL East after this trade] to one of the weakest offensive divisions in baseball. Also, the switch to the NL from the AL will help him, as well as moving to a very strong pitcher's park. Pedro went from Boston to New York, and his ERA dropped a point. Expect Santana to do the same, and win the NL Cy Young in 2008.

Winner [big]: Mets

The Mets got who they wanted, and Minaya just guaranteed himself an extension. They gave up a very weak class of prospects relatively speaking to get the best pitcher in the game. Minaya bided his time, and hoped and prayed the Yankees were out of it. Expect Minaya to send Cashman a case of Crystal for letting Santana go. After this season, he may even be offering Cashman a job.

Winner: Indians, Tigers

Everyone is focusing on the Yankees/Red Sox winners, but it's actually these two teams that will benefit the most. Santana would face them an average of four times each a season. By removing Santana from the equation, it lessens Minnesota's impact on the race, and giving the loser for the division an better chance of making the wild card.

Winner: Red Sox

I still believe, and always believed, the Red Sox never wanted Santana. They just didn't want to see him go the Yankees. Their offers got better as the Yankees offers got better, and when the Yankees announced they were out, the Red Sox pulled Lester out of the deal, thereby guaranteeing Santana would go to the Mets. As good as Santana is, a lefty fly ball pitcher in Fenway is not a blue print for success, as his poor record at Fenway helps attest.

Winner...and also loser...maybe: Yankees

Cashman has wagered his job on this move. If he had traded for Santana, even against his wishes, he had made it very obvious in the media that he was against the deal, and could take credit for it if it worked out, and could have teflon-ed his way out of blame if it didn't. It is my opinion that the Yankees had made the best formal offer, which they later withdrew. In short, the Yankees should have stayed in it, and pulled the trigger. The NY media will remind Cashman of his failures if Santana racks up wins [which he will in the weak NL East] and Huhges doesn't pan out. If Hughes turns out to be an All-Star this season, then the Yankees are big winners. If he turns out to be a back of the rotation starter, or if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs this year, the Yankees are big losers, and Cashman is out of a job.

Loser [HUGE]: Twins

An absolutely asinine deal for the Twins. It is indefensible. First year GM Smith of the Twins has been a GM for two years too long. Regardless of which offer you think is best, there is little doubt that that the Yankees offer, as well as both Red Sox offers [Lester offer, Ellsbury offer] were far and away better than what the Mets offered and the Twins eventually took. Being in a bad position, as Gammons has alluded to on ESPN isn't the point. He had three better offers, and overplayed his hand. Smith has now edged Boras as idiot of the 2008 off-season.

Yeah i'll agree that its sorta crazy that Smith couldn't even get Martinez. That just seems dumb by him. And also would agree that this deal is completely contingent on how Guerra develops. Unless either Mulvey or Humber becomes a good #3 (which they wont), then both Gomez and Guerra will have to perform to make this deal worth it.

Gomez has to start hitting and Guerra has to be a top of the rotation starter for this to be a good decision by Smith.