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« Jim Bowden Trade Profile (Reds) | Main | Baseball Prospectus Projects The Standings »
Baseball Prospectus Projects The Standings
Always interesting when Baseball Prospectus uses their PECOTA system to project the standings. Click here to take a look, and consider subscribing if you haven't.
PECOTA sees the Yankees winning the AL East and the Angels taking the AL West. They have the Indians and Tigers playing a tiebreaker for the AL Central and the Red Sox as the league's wild card entry.
As for the NL, the Mets take the East. The Cubs win the Central, while the D'Backs and Dodgers tie for the West. The wild card would be the Brewers. BP's Nate Silver discusses the standings a bit more here.
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Seattle to finish last in the West? Interesting
Posted by: WhiteSoxFan | February 16, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Seattle made a huge mistake giving away their future for Bedard.
Posted by: Swishermvp | February 16, 2008 at 10:24 AM
fat chance the tigers are gonna score a mere 24 more runs than the diamondbacks, about a good a chance as the A's have for finishing second in the west.
Posted by: nick5924 | February 16, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Ha ha ha....everybody always talks about the weak NL Central, and they project the wildcard to come out of it!
Posted by: Aduncaroo | February 16, 2008 at 10:27 AM
I don't see Seattle finishing behind Oakland much less in last place.
Posted by: fitz | February 16, 2008 at 10:45 AM
"Ha ha ha....everybody always talks about the weak NL Central, and they project the wildcard to come out of it!"
Two years in a row that the winner of the NL Central had the lowest win total of all teams to make the playoffs AL & NL. How completely foolish that people would say the NL Central is weak. Just unacceptable.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | February 16, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Sweet, now we know how it'll end. Why play the season?
Posted by: vegasneedsbaseball | February 16, 2008 at 11:17 AM
mariners finish last and give up 771 runs? :/
Posted by: msk86 | February 16, 2008 at 11:25 AM
mariners finish last and give up 771 runs? :/
Posted by: msk86 | February 16, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Why so many ties?
Posted by: brianrein | February 16, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Why so many ties?
Posted by: brianrein | February 16, 2008 at 11:40 AM
HAHAHA… So BP projects the Yankees will have the best record in baseball and give up the third lowest amount of Runs in the AL? Oh, and they will do this despite not really knowing what they will get out of Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, Job, Kennedy and whatever other starters will need to randomly fill in as they attempt to keep the rookies IP totals rather reasonable? Oh, and did they somehow grow a bullpen overnight?
Seems a tad… well… asinine to me. Teams don’t give up a near Lg-Low amount of runs when they have up to 4 question marks in their rotations and shaky pens. BP looks foolish for this in my mind…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | February 16, 2008 at 11:42 AM
((("Ha ha ha....everybody always talks about the weak NL Central, and they project the wildcard to come out of it!"
Two years in a row that the winner of the NL Central had the lowest win total of all teams to make the playoffs AL & NL. How completely foolish that people would say the NL Central is weak. Just unacceptable.)))
Even if they did produce the WC in the NL ~ they would still be the second weakest division based on those BP rankings. I mean, they say only 2 NL-C teams will have more than 80 wins ~ the only other division like that is the AL-C where they say only 1 of the 4 clubs will be 80+ Win clubs…
When you have two semi-respectable clubs and 4 near-bottom feeders ~ well, then you are a horribly weak league. This projection doesn’t change that one bit…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | February 16, 2008 at 11:47 AM
On the N.L. Central being projected to provide the wild card consider this. PECOTA is also say 3 of your division mates will be slumming with the Giants ( around the 90 losses mark). Only two in the N.L. East and 1 in the N.L. West. That inflates the N.L. Central front runners record by a few wins and it usually only takes just a couple wins to secure the wild card of a different team.
Posted by: daveinexile | February 16, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Wow, Cubs leading the league in OBP...
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | February 16, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Last time PECOTA predicted the White Sox for less than 80 wins?
2005.
Posted by: Andrew Cabiness | February 16, 2008 at 01:04 PM
As much as I respect the folks at Baseball Prospectus, I have to ask, does anyone give their projections a "common sense" look?
For example, they list Brandon Lyons as the closer for the Diamondbacks....and have him projected to save THREE games. Sure, I'd be cool if they actually thought someone else in the pen was going to take the job but I think Qualls and Pena ALSO are projected to save three games.
Do numbers like that effect their team projections? I mean, on what basis do they project the win/loss totals? If it's based on runs scored/yielded AND that's determined by the individual projections, a few "wacky" projections could undermine the entire process.
Posted by: Devlsh | February 16, 2008 at 02:00 PM
Last time PECOTA predicted the White Sox for less than 80 wins?
2007
Posted by: *BaseClogger* | February 16, 2008 at 02:46 PM
Saves mean abosutely nothing...
Does anybody else remember the outcry when the asinine PECOTA projected the White Sox to go 72-90 last season? How silly...
Posted by: *BaseClogger* | February 16, 2008 at 02:48 PM
not to call the thing total BS, but they don't have Miguel Tejada on the Astros. I think going from Geoff Blum to Tejada would be worth a few games in the standings.
Posted by: Darin | February 16, 2008 at 03:41 PM
BP is not perfect but they did nail the White Sox at 72 wins last year. I remember everyone saying they were crazy.
And maybe they left Tejada off the Astros because he is going to be in jail.
Posted by: Swishermvp | February 16, 2008 at 04:38 PM
It's kind of hard to take it seriously when they're not even getting the year right. quote: "PECOTA predicts they'll slug .452 as a team in 2007." Aren't we talking about 2008 here?
Posted by: ChiSoxSLIM | February 16, 2008 at 07:38 PM
A's and Rangers ahead of Seattle? These guys are on crack!
Seattle & Angels will be feasting off of the AL West losers (A's and Rangers)!!! And because of it, and now Bedard/Silva added, I got a feeling that Seattle or Angels will get the AL wildcard spot while the East will be in a dog fight with Yanks/BoSox/Toronto...and the Central will be dog fighting with Detroit/Indians/WhiSox.
Plus with Butler & Gordon having their 1st year behind them, I'm expecting KC to take some unexpected games away from Tor/Yanks/BoSox!
I can DEFINITELY see Seattle making a mid-season trade with Cincy for Griffey and replacing Vidro as Seattle's DH. They do that and it would put Seattle an edge over the Angels.
Despite the Angels top OF, I think everyone doesn't realize the negative impact that their IF is going to have on their SPs ERA. Plus with Escobar out for AT LEAST May 1st.
I'd take Seattle's rotation right now over the Angels, and Seattle's IF too. Seattle somehow has to improve it's OF defense AND bench though! I think the AL West is closer than many people give Seattle credit for!
Posted by: DRWheelock | February 16, 2008 at 07:59 PM
Tim, I think they had Colorado with a higher OPB.
Posted by: Swishermvp | February 16, 2008 at 09:33 PM
Sorry, OBP.
Posted by: Swishermvp | February 16, 2008 at 09:34 PM
God, please have the Mariners trade for Griffey at the deadline! That would be the most classic thing of all time!! They would for sure make the playoffs and probably make it to the WS
Posted by: dbacks2007 | February 17, 2008 at 06:08 AM
One thing that people are forgetting is Brandon Wood. They are going to have to shift Figgins off 3B at some point this year, and probably have him play SS or have Kendrick play SS and Figgins play 2B. What do yall think? Anyways once that happens they have a nice clean offense. Maybe Jeff Mathis will emerge this year. Reggie Willits is pretty good and Terry Evans is good too. I dont see the Angels picking up Garrett Andersons option in 2009. Lets have Jose Arredondo make the roster!!
Posted by: dbacks2007 | February 17, 2008 at 06:11 AM
DBAcks,
its extremely unlikely Woods will be playing 3B for the Angels this year ~ his horrible plate discipline makes him an unattractive player for a contender to try out when its not needed. Howie Kendrick is the 2B of the future and will be given a fairly long leash there in 2008. Aybar is the SS going into the season, with Izturis as the most likely replacement if EA fails. Because of Kids or light-hitters at 2B/SS ~ the team is even less likely to try Wood… There is also Rob Quinlan around on a ML deal to cover 3B, limiting Woods chances even more… Terry Evans has NO future with the club; and truthfully Willits is unlikely to be around long himself ~ he will probably have a hard time making the 25-man out of camp because of how many 1B/DH/OFers they have on ML contracts.
Posted by: darkstar1661 | February 17, 2008 at 01:42 PM
I'm sorry but that is by far the stupidest predictions I've ever read. Most teams he is right about projecting as the winners, but with numbers that are completely far off and I can't wait to laugh about this at end of season. To call the Yankees the favorite to win the AL East with the same team that lost the division to the EXACT SAME Red Sox team one year ago is ridiculous. Not just because I'm a fan do I take the Red Sox. Just by sheerly looking at the depth of each team. The Yankees unless they make some major changes will sit this year in second place the entire way through again. A team with a new manager is also usually not favored to win a division as it takes time to adjust. And the tigers are going to spank the Indians. The offense of the Indians with the exception of last year is pretty weak and yes they have a very strong 1-2 but I would hardly call Byrd and Westbrook stars that you can rely upon. Maybe this guy should try looking at some statistics before he makes his projections next year?
Posted by: Santana/Beckett FTW | February 17, 2008 at 03:40 PM
“The offense of the Indians with the exception of last year is pretty weak”
…uhh, youre kidding right?
Indians offense: (Rankings are for AL)
2006 5.37 R/G (2nd), .349 OBP (3rd), .457 SLG (4th), 107 OPS+ (3rd)
2005 4.88 R/G (4th), .355 OBP (2nd), .453 SLG (3rd), 112 OPS+ (T-2nd)
2004 5.30 R/G (5th), .351 OBP (3rd), .444 SLG (6th), 112 OPS+ (T-1st)
compare it to:
2007 5.01 R/G (6th), .343 OBP (5th), .428 SLG (5th), 100 OPS+ (T-7th)
and you begin to realize that the Indians actually had an off year at the plate in 2007… Why? No production from LF, RF or 2B with half the production from DH that they usually get… Will those things stay the same? Doubtful…
“exception of last year is pretty weak” = very backwards…
“yes they have a very strong 1-2 but I would hardly call Byrd and Westbrook stars that you can rely upon”
Indians pitching:
2007 ~ 4.35 R/G (3rd), 4.05 ERA (3rd), 114 ERA+ (2nd)
Westbrook last five years: (& You’ll notice 2007 is lower than the team total ERA)
2007 4.32 ERA (4.61 LgAvg), 152 IP, 107 ERA+
2006 4.17 ERA (4.52 LgAvg), 2011 IP, 108 ERA+
2005 4.49 ERA (4.19 LgAvg), 210 IP, 93 ERA+
2004 3.38 ERA (4.36 LgAvg), 215 IP, 129 ERA+
2003 4.33 ERA (4.39 LgAvg), 133 IP, 101 ERA+ (first year starting)
For career as starter:
4.38 ERA, 950 IP in 155 Starts (6.2 IP/GS), 11 CG, 3 SHO
Why in the world would anyone ever question him? Because he, like 25% of the players in the league, had a strained oblique last year?
Byrd? (& You’ll notice 2007 is within .15 of the team total ERA)
2007 4.59 ERA (4.61 LgAvg), 192 IP, 100 ERA+
2006 4.88 ERA, (4.52 LgAvg), 179 IP, 93 ERA+
2005 3.74 ERA, (4.23 LgAvg), 204 IP, 113 ERA+
…Why worry about him as a 4th-5th starter? At worst he gives up an ERA a tiny bit worse than LgAvg. That’s what Jon Garland does and he’s called a #2 by many people on this board…
“Maybe this guy should try looking at some statistics before he makes his projections next year?”
First, it isnt one guy…
Second, you might want to take your own advice…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | February 17, 2008 at 09:10 PM
:To call the Yankees the favorite to win the AL East with the same team that lost the division to the EXACT SAME Red Sox team one year ago is ridiculous.:
the same team that finished 2 games ahead of the them? after a completely collaspe in the first two month or the team that throughly outplayed them in the later 4 month of the season?
I'd personally take the Red Sox over the Yankees, but the difference is VERY minimal to begin with. the Yankees clearly ran into more injury bugs last year then the Red Sox. (they lost 3 of their orignal 5 SP to the DL in the first month and 3 of the guys they called up to replacement got drilled by a hit or pulled a hammy himself within 2 start.. that's NORMAL?)
It's not like they project the Yankees to blow away the Red Sox in the east. that would be insane, they projected them to win like 3 more games.
the only projection that really strikes me was the Mariners. I could see them playing a lot less then people expect. but I have a hard time beliving they'll somehow finish behind a rebuilding A's AND the Rangers (last year, Arlington played like a hitter's park for their pitchers and a pitchers park for their hitters kinda summed up the team)
Oakland is a team that i could see playing better then expected.. but the Rangers? really?
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen | February 18, 2008 at 03:12 AM
I spent the first 28 years watching AL and I have to say the NL is alot better and really becoming competitive. The NLWest is awesome with COL, AZ and LAD. The NLCentral has CHI,MIL,CIN,HOU,STL, although I think STL will suck this year again. The NL east is owned by the NYM and PHI, with an ever improving DC team. I dont see the Cubs winning the Central this year. I wish they would go to 2 Wild Cards because there are too many good teams now. Theres 8 quality teams in the NL fighting for 4 spots. I guess thats how it should be but MLB seriously needs realignment and relocation! The Pirates need to relocate to another city and get out of the NL central!! If they moved to Vegas they could go in the AL West and even everything up. I dont see the Wild Card coming out of the NL West. Usually teams give up in that division if they cant win the division. Last year was kind of a fluke. I think the Wild Card will go to either NYM/PHI or MIL/CIN/CUBS. Anyone but SF could win the NL West.
Posted by: dbacks2007 | February 18, 2008 at 02:55 PM
Actually SD cannot win the NL West. Its between the LAD,COL,AZ.
Posted by: dbacks2007 | February 18, 2008 at 02:58 PM
I definately expect the Brewers to make the playoffs but they need Gallardo to be productive, Maybe they are a year away still. Maybe the Wild Card can stil come out of the NL West but I doubt it. The Mets and Phillies have a major war going on there and are going to both win a TON of games.
Posted by: dbacks2007 | February 18, 2008 at 03:01 PM