2008 Rookie of the Year Predictions

Before the 1996 season, I predicted that Derek Jeter and Todd Hollandsworth would win the Rookie of the Year awards.  I believe that was the last time I made an accurate preseason award prediction.  However, requests for award picks were common in yesterday's chat.  I didn't post any because I wanted some time to mull it over.  I'll post more predictions over the next few days. 

Here are my 2008 Rookie of the Year predictions; I'm interested to see yours in the comments.  Tough call in the NL, lot of good choices.

AL: Clay Buchholz.  Runners up: Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain.

NL: Kosuke Fukudome.  Runners up: Johnny Cueto, Geovany Soto, Clayton Kershaw.

Comments

[Taj Adib]

No love for Daric Barton?

[CubFanForLife]

I'll go with Soto in the NL and Longoria in the AL. Once he gets called up, that kid is going to RAKE. You can tell watching him, he just has 'it'. Looks completely confident at the plate whether he's facing a major-league star or some career AA'er.

[TheNatural]

I'd throw both Bruce and Votto in there before Kershaw...

[Tim Dierkes]

Decided to limit it to three runners up for each, lot of good rookies missed the cut.

[Tim Dierkes]

Though with Barton I don't see him having the counting stats to win voters' hearts.

No need to question my picks y'all, that's why you get to make your own!

[derby]

carlos gomez of the twins. once he starts hitting he'll steal 70 bases

[pfelon]

I'm thinking
NL: Manny Parra
AL: Longoria

[spaceantelope]

I'll toss Jair Jurrjens as a random possibility for NL. I could see him putting together something maybe like Dontrelle did in '03. Maybe.

[hawkeyes12990]

For the AL: No Ian Kennedy?
For the NL: No JR Towles?

I also think Hannahan & Barton on the A's deserve some consideration

And as for Buchholz I think we'll find out quickly that he is going to get overshadowed by the performances of Ellsbury and Joba

[dacubbies07]

I doubt Kershaw will play in the majors this year.

I also think Longoria can be last year's Ryan Braun. (May call-up and big #'s).

My picks:

AL - Longoria

NL - Soto

[AtlantaMike]

Jair Jurrjens with the Braves might be in the running in the NL. Comfortably positioned at the back of the rotation, he might win 15 games.

'Course, I'm a Braves fan, so he's on my radar.

[04Forever]

AL - Ellsbury
NL - Soto

[bravesbeast]

I think that voters seem to give more preference to hitters than pitchers, although i could be wrong. However, I would have to guess Soto in the NL if he has a very good year as a catcher. I think the fact that he is succeeding as a rookie at a position where not a whole lot of other rookies succeed will help his cause tremendously. For the Al, I really like ellsbury or barton, simply because it looks like both their teams want them to be the starter and will stick with them.

[Rytor]

If the criteria for ROY is stealing laptops, Clay Buchholz is a shoe-in!

AL - Longoria
NL - Soto

[dbacksbuzz]

The D-backs' Justin Upton could be a candidate as well for NL

[celtics464]

Once Crisp gets out of the way, Ellsbury in the AL. Buchholz isn't going to be impressive enough to win ROY.

For the NL it was going to be Chase Headley. Bruce looks like he won't be up for a while so he's out too . I'll go Soto as the favorite but its wide open.

[AJP]

I think that if Alexei Rameriez gets enough time at 2nd that he could possibly take over the job and win AL ROTY.

[XD23]

Upton has too many ABs to qualify for ROY.

[Jim Crane]

NL: Jayson Nix

AL: Jacoby Ellsbury

[deeco3307]

Kershaw will be a September callup at best. Considering you put Longoria in the AL group, you should have put Bruce and/or Rasmus in the NL group.

My list for NL:
Fukudome, Cuetto, Bruce, Rasmus

[Jeff August]

AL: Daric Barton
NL: Jay Bruce

[Flash]

Yeah, this is definitely a Cubs site.

[jason]

Cueto in the NL only becaue Jeurrgens might not get the run support, and Soto im not sure about he has been in the minors seems like forever,, too bad Bruce wont be up long enough though. Ellsbury for the AL, with Joba a close second

[thehoagster07]

I'm not convinced Jurrjens is going to be a ROY candidate. He'll be a fine pitcher in a few years, but I think he'll be a 12 win, 4.50 ERA guy this year.

[cmac1973]

AL: Ellsbury

NL: Fukudome

[SWish]

NL: Parra, Nix, Votto, Towles
AL: Ellsbury, Longoria, Barton, Buchholz

Manny and Jacoby have too much in their favor to not win the awards. However, I foresee the young Houston catcher performing better than Soto.

[TheCaptain2]

AL: Kennedy
NL: Soto

[futureprospect3]

AL: EllsburyNL:Bruce

[bronx]

yeah k-fuk is gonna be a MONSTER. haha lets hope at least. a cub with ROY would be first in how many years?

[TrueCubsFan]

Soto or Fukudome in the NL. The Cubs are so stacked it's insane. Cueto might give them a run for their money, but someone else suggested Manny Parra? You must be trippin'! Boy has very limited skills.

[FineHamAbounds]

AL - Longoria
NL - Soto

These votes almost always favor hom run hitters, but I think a stellar catcher like Soto might break the mold.

[ClassyJack85]

10 kerry wood-1998 NL ROY

jackass

[SWish]

I would like to make a correction to my ROY picks. The Cubs should play a billy goat as a player to break the curse and not completely break down in the playoffs. Again.

[fgsfsfbbbrd]

i disagree a little bit tim. as a redsox fan i love to see two in your AL list, but Longoria will win it for the AL. i agree hopefully on the NL. i have Soto winning it, or possibly johnny cueto, unless Kershaw joins the rotation early.

[ClassyJack85]

well thats just dumb...what position would he play?

[Dave]

We had Jerome Walton in 1989, too. Boo-Yah.

[Pogue009]

I got to throw a few more out there Miller and Maybin both have a good shot so does Franklin Morales in Col. but make mine

AL- Joba(got to split the awards fairly between Bos and NYY)

NL- Jair

[ryno23]

Yes this site sometimes has a Cubs flavor too it, however the talks is about ROY and the it just so happens that the Cubs have 2 solid players for that honor. I think the K-Fuk talk is justified for 2 reasons 1. Good Japanese hitters seem to excel (Ichrio, Matsui) in the ML. 2. The Japanese league is as good as our AAA but overall not as good as the ML sort of an (AAAA), this being said a lot of rookies have only played a season or 2 at AAA, and dont have as much playing time as K-Fuk has had (9 years)

[thehoagster07]

Flash, what's that supposed to mean? Just because 2 Cubs (with very legitimate shots at winning the ROY) are listed doesn't mean this is a Cubs site. Fukudome and Soto have question marks, but not any more than the other guys in the NL ROY race.

[ClassyJack85]

anybody who puts a name other then soto or "F*ck-you-do-me" should be potato sacked by chuck norris.

by throwing out a name of a nobody who nobody has ever heard of is an insult to this website, just because he's on your favorite team and you think he is gonna shock the world this year doesn't mean it's going to happen. I got news for all you champions out there....you're dumb!

[INOK]

We had Jerome Walton in 1989, too. Boo-Yah.

Posted by: Dave

Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith were co-ROY if I remember it correctly.

[Dan W]

There is no way Kosuke Fukudome wins the NL rookie of the year. There are simply too many Sports writers that will not vote for him since they will consider him a true rookie.

It cost H. Matsui the award before, it will cost Kukudome the award this year...

[INOK]

And both ended up with the Braves the following year?

[WPSN]

AL ROY Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS

AL Runners up:
Joba Chamberlain, NYY
Henry Rodriquez, OAK

NL ROY Jayson Nix, COL

NL Runners up:
Kosuke Fukudome, CHC
Geovany Soto, CHC

[mind_vs_body]

Its a joke that Fukudome who will soon turn 31 will even be considered for an award with "rookie" in the title. It's especailly absurd for these pros from outside the US. The NHL got this right when they set an age limit of 26 years old to be considered a rookie, after 31 year old 11 yr Russian Super League veteran Sergei Makarov won.

[Joe]

I think the AL is between Ellsbury and Longoria. Ellsbury will get more playing time and has proven he can hit MLB pitching. Longoria has more power though and ripped up pitching in spring training. Ellsbury won't get that many more at-bats because of Coco Crisp. Buchholz and Joba are also good options but they won't start the year in their team's rotation. I think I see Evan Longoria as the next Ryan Braun. I am leaning towards him.

[ClassyJack85]

Dan,

ichiro won it and fukudome is in the same circumstances, fresh out of japan after playing there for some amount of years, matsui didn't win it because he was a yankee and everybody hates the yankees

[m3th0ds]

AL - Carlos Gomez
NL - Manny Parra

[erbacaine]

Its really hard for Pitchers to get ROY honors..otherwise I think Manny Parra would get more consideration..

Soto-had one good year of offense in his THIRD year at triple A..I see him struggling this season

Fukudome- I just dont see a .280/.380/ 15 Homerun guy winning ROY

So my picks are...
AL- Longoria
NL- Rssmus

Runner ups AL- Alexis Rameriz, Ellsbury

Runner ups NL- Maybin, Votto and Parra

[defense]

If Fukudome wins it, when Matsui was basically screwed out of it his rookie year, I don't know what I would say. Probably something along how hypocritical this league is

[Zappatista]

AL: Ellsbury

NL: Andrew "Dice" Miller

[erbacaine]

ClassyJack-
Ichiro is a much better PURE hitter than Fukudome..
Fukudome is an On base guy..but he will be a .280 with average power in RF.. thats not ROY numbers..

He will need to be a .315 hitter with 25 HRs..

Look at the youngsters last year..Braun, Tuttlowiski and Pence..

Ichiro had a great batting average his ROY season..

[PS314]

if Adam Jones is still considered a rookie this year, I say him for the AL. He will be a starting everyday CF.

[TrueCubsFan]

Erbacaine, you show your ignorance here.

Votto total Minor League at-bats: 2553

Soto total Minor League at bats: 1959

Votto's birthday: 9/10/83
Soto's birthday: 1/20/83

Soto spent too much time in the minors to be good but Votto is going to be ROY! Oh man, what else should I expect from a guy who thinks Marmol is a one-year wonder and the Brewers bullpen is solid! Keep the comedy coming my friend, keep it coming!

[derby]

I love how everyone only seems to choose the big names that ESPN and all the other pundits seem to talk about in the AL (joba, jacoby, longoria, buchholz).

I have a feeling it will be like ryan braun or dustin pedrioa last year; there was little to no hype about them where as alex gordon was supposed to be the shoo-in winner and all he did was have an average year.

[Dan W]

Jack -

Ichiro won it because he was ridiculous that year. .350 and 127 runs. There was nobody close to touching that. If Fokudome has similar numbers to other rookies...he will not win any sort of close race.

If he has a ridiculous year, 25+ Hr and 100+ RBI...then I think he has a shot, but not if it is a close competition.

[Gleebo]

So many promising names in both leagues...

AL:

Todd Van Poppel
Phil Plantier
Melido Perez
Mike Boddicker
Rolando Arrojo
Ben Grieve (he can win twice, he's just that good)
Rocky Coppinger
Tim Crabtree
Wayne Kirby
Troy Neel

NL:

Chad Mottola
Chad Fonville
David Nied
Scott Pose
Rich Loiselle
Joe Hesketh
Chuck Carr
Armando Reynoso
Kevin Stocker
Kevin Orie

[QuoSF]

OMFG. Does no one remember how good Angel Berroa was in 2003? .789 OPS + 21 SB from the SS position. Matsui put up a .788 in LF. Why on god's green earth are there still conspiracy theories about this? It was close, but Berroa was a shade better playing a more important position on the field. Holy S. Stop this.

[lrs77]

AL: Evan Longoria

Runners up: Adam Jones, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain

NL: Jay Bruce

Runners up: Geovony Soto, Edison Volquez, Cameron Maybin

[QuoSF]

Andrew Miller has 74 1/3 ML innings. Not eligible, unfortunately.

[zpinkham]

AL: I agree with Clay B.
(but, if eligible, i would say Adam Jones)

NL: Cueto (he just so sick)

[Pogue009]

I certainly don't think that the guy who deserves it will win it that is why I picked Joba, the media automatically sticks it's nose up the butt of any major market contributor, even if Soto wins it that will just continue. Plus playing in the eastern time zone helps since all of those writers are in their 50s and 60s and go to bed by 8pm

[erbacaine]

TrueCubsFan-
Difference is Votto played well at ALL Levels of the Minors..and did not just have ONE good year...

Soto- was bad in every year of the minors except 2007... which was also his 3rd season in Triple A

Votto only needed one Year in Triple A to be good..

So who is ignorant now..
Thats what I thought

I will take 4 years of GOOD Minor league ball out of the 5 years votto played

Over the ONE good year of out of the 6 Minor league seasons Soto played

[The Globalizer]

AL: Longoria
RU: Joba, Ellsbury

NL: Votto
RU: Cueto, Towles

[CarpeDiem]

Tim, I don't disagree that Kosuke could put up the deserving numbers, but I have a feeling that voters won't give him as much love because he's a Japanese import who's played at a higher level; I think the Japanese leagues are above AAA. I know it's against the rules, but I think voters might count it against him.

[bernie]

Excellent point Gleebo! And an "impressive" list! Boddicker does not belong on your list however. He actually had a pretty solid if not spectacular career.

[erbacaine]

Also where did I say Soto spent to much time in the Minors...I said Soto only had ONE good year and that was in his THIRD year in Triple A...nothing about him spending to much time in the Minors..

Just showing that he was not good in Triple A his first 2 years..

But hey I know its tough to read with out pictures.

[lih]

Kuroda

[Knuffy]

I belive that the Cardinals will trade Shumarker and bring up Rasmus in the first part of May and he will win the ROY. Who knows, The Cardinals might have 2 ROY for back to back years with Rasmus and Haffnaur.

[mind_vs_body]

Gleebo, I have Todd Van Poppel 1992 Extended series Starting Lineup, MOC, if you're interested.

[Tim Dierkes]

"I love how everyone only seems to choose the big names that ESPN and all the other pundits seem to talk about in the AL (joba, jacoby, longoria, buchholz)."

Or, it's because those are the most reasonable picks.

[ClassyJack85]

fukudome will be as sick as the jap "rookies" of years past,

nomo, sasaki, ichiro...

if the rules of the game make him a rookie, then he'll show he's the best "rookie" out there. And since he and Soto are on the same team, they will compete against each other for it, and competition makes people better.

Soto might win it because of his position. If he learns when to go out and calm pitchers down, he's already comparing himself to the greats so he's confident but not cocky because he knows he has to proove himself.

Cueto won't win it for theese reasons:
1) no MLB experience
2) he plays for the reds
3) pitchers don't usually win it because they
a) pitch once every five days
b) pitch only a couple innings
4) Dusty Baker doesn't like to play the young guys

[ClassyJack85]

fukudome will be as sick as the jap "rookies" of years past,

nomo, sasaki, ichiro...

if the rules of the game make him a rookie, then he'll show he's the best "rookie" out there. And since he and Soto are on the same team, they will compete against each other for it, and competition makes people better.

Soto might win it because of his position. If he learns when to go out and calm pitchers down, he's already comparing himself to the greats so he's confident but not cocky because he knows he has to proove himself.

Cueto won't win it for theese reasons:
1) no MLB experience
2) he plays for the reds
3) pitchers don't usually win it because they
a) pitch once every five days
b) pitch only a couple innings
4) Dusty Baker doesn't like to play the young guys

[ClassyJack85]

dumb computer

[The Globalizer]

I agree with ClassyJack85 -- both times. That's why I have Cueto as a runner up. A pitcher has to be borderline Cy Young material to win these days.

I do think he'll be a hell of a pitcher, though.

[ClassyJack85]

erbacain,

obviosly votto didn't play well enough to get out of the minors now did he?

that's what I thought!

[SlinkyB]

I gotta go with. . .

AL: Ellsbury

NL: JOrdan schaffer, This guy is goin to rip nl pitchers the second half.. If he gets called up.

[MattyJ]

AL - Ellsbury

NL - Bourn

[ewoks]

Let me be the first Cub fan to vote against K-Fuk and Soto.

AL: Ian Kennedy

I know it is hard for a pitcher to win, but all the wins he'll get will be hard to ignore. Runner ups: Longoria, Elsbury

NL: Jay Bruce. I know he wont start off the season, but did the last two NL ROY? People like power, and he'll hit a bunch once dust-bag fails with Patterson for the third time. Runner ups: Maybin, Fukudome

[H0RAT!0SANZSERIF]

AL: Gomez
NL: Nix

I like the other guys, but they're either partially blocked (Bruce/Votto), expected to pick up too much slack (Cueto/Longoria) or based on a blip good year (Soto).

Nix and Gomez are expected to contribute immediately, but they each also have lineup protection beyond the others. Plus, the bar is set low at their respective positions.

[redsrowdy]

AL: Joba Chamberlain
NL: Colby Rasmus

I also like Ellsbury in the AL but he will lose ABs to Crisp and Bruce in the NL but think that Dusty will stick with Patterson.

[yankees08]

what no kennedy
he was ranked by espn as higher value for next 5 years
mine are
al
kennedy
barton
longoria

nl
votto
soto
jurrjens

[Doug]

Keep an eye on Alexi Ramierez of the Chicago White Sox for the A.L. Rookie of the year award. He plays infield and outfield and burned up pitchers in spring training.

[JitteryMcFrog]

AL:Longoria
Runners-up: Joba, Barton, Ellsbury

NL: Rasmus
Runners-up: Soto, Votto, Maybin

[la16]

Is Edinson Volquez eligible?

Nl: Nix
Al: Barton

I'd pick Evan Longoria but who knows if Longoria will be called up this season?! TB brass are shady characters.

[bronx]

you guys got me good call. i didnt think kerry wood got it but you are right. yeah, cmon cubbies win it this year.

[Dan Kohler]

I think that Clay Buchholz will be the rookie of the year for the AL and in the NL I think Kosuke Fukudome will be.

[golfstar2020]

its unbelievable the cubs bias on this website. makes me sick. Ill throw out a sleeper--Chin-Lung Hu wins the NL ROY taking place of the now mummified jeff kent; with manny parra as runner up. As for the AL, i'll take daric barton, with longoria a close second

[SteveBuechele]

Volquez isn't eligible. He has been up for parts of three different seasons. Of course he is a potential ace now.

Crazy Dark Horse AL pick:
David Murphy (who is actually eligible though many don't care) continues what he started at the end of last year and outshines former fellow prospects Ellsbury and Bucholz while continuing to show what a fleece job that trade was.

If I had to put money on it though:
AL- Longoria
NL- Fukudome

[Joelcards]

i guess phil hughes doesnt qualify. if he did he would be my pick. whatever "it" is he has it. also in the al the obvious evan longoria.

in the nl i dont think japanese players should count so no fukudome. cueto is my pick if he can deal with the ballpark. i also like soto because of his strong monor league track record and because he will definitely get playing time.

[ChiTownCody]

https://www.typekey.com/t/typekey/activate?v=295142018a&s=c977cf71e6e16ff6d357de947b6c1395

[ChiTownCody]

as a Cub fan it would be amazing to see Soto or K-Dome win the NL ROY but it's not something that myself as well as all Cub fans really need to worry about unlike the other NL teams.

The Cubs rookies just need to make it a race because that would mean both are doing well which would mean the Cubs have six very good hitters who hit for a good average with nice power, not to mention a solid Theriot as well as a guy in Pie who may very well put up a good average, 15 home runs and 70+ RBI's with great speed to boot.

We already have a solid line-up, a ROY would be nice but we'll be fine without it.

[Aduncaroo]

"its unbelievable the cubs bias on this website. makes me sick."

You are an idiot. There isn't an expert out there that doesn't have Soto and Fukudome in thier top 5 , if not top 3.

Fukudome is in his prime, and will hit in the 5 hole in a very good linup, one that could be great. Do you know of another rookie that will be saying that? Same with Soto, although he will hit lower, but will get plenty of playing time and should have a lot of RBI chances which the voters love to see. Read a book, see what the experts have to say. Its not cubs bias...no one is picking Soto or Fukudome to win MVP, but rookie of the year is completely reasonable.

[Sesshomaru]

Personally, I think Soto is overrated. Going by him increasing his BA in the minors by 80 points, nearly doubling his slugging% and nearly tripling his previous career highs in homeruns, I am very suspcious of him being on some kind of PED. How does no one else notice that? After struggling in the minors for many years trying to make it to the majors, suddenly he goes on a new diet, loses 20 pounds and becomes a superstar caliber catching prospect after not even remotely showing that kind of ability before then? Looks awfully suspicious to me. Soto will be a flash in the pan or he'll get caught.

[MaxPower]

FUKUDOME IN THE NL

BILLY BUTLER IN THE AL