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Predictions

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More

By Tim Dierkes | November 22, 2018 at 1:38pm CDT

MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents.  Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:

11.  Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)

12.  Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)

13.  Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)

14.  Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)

15.  Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)

16.  Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)

17.  Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)

18.  Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)

19.  David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)

20.  Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)

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Adam Ottavino Andrew McCutchen Charlie Morton David Robertson Jeurys Familia Josh Donaldson Marwin Gonzalez MLBTR Originals Predictions Wilson Ramos Yusei Kikuchi Zach Britton

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Nightengale’s Latest: Martinez, Encarnacion, Darvish, Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2018 at 1:08pm CDT

As sparring continues over the ongoing free agent freeze — see Boras v. Halem, Clark v. Manfred — Bob Nightengale of USA Today takes an interesting look at how he believes the market might shake out for the top available players. His overall analysis and predictions are well worth a look, but a few items of information bear highlighting as part of the market landscape.

  • Slugger J.D. Martinez was the focus of a skirmish yesterday in the war of words, with some sparring over the fact that the Red Sox have not upped their longstanding offer — which evidently still stands at a previously reported five-year, $125MM level. Per Nightengale, the only other offer on the table right now is from the Diamondbacks, but it’s just a one-year deal. Clearly, all involved have reason to anticipate that there’d be greater interest than that from other organizations, but it’s a notable point in relation to Martinez’s hopes for generating pressure on the Sox.
  • Notably, too, the Red Sox are perhaps still aware of other means of fulfilling their desire for right-handed power. Nightengale says the organization spoke with the Indians earlier in the offseason about a potential deal that would have brought Edwin Encarnacion to Boston. Whether or not there’s any plausible hope of reviving those discussions isn’t clear, though, and the Sox are said not to have been willing to send Jackie Bradley Jr. to Cleveland. Clearly, that’s no surprise, as Bradley is a much younger and more affordable player who still offers plenty of value to the Sox. Indeed, it’s amply arguable that Bradley is a more valuable overall performer than is Encarnacion.
  • Top free agent starter Yu Darvish is sitting on multiple five-year offers, per Nightengale. At the moment, he’s still hoping an organization will decide to give him an extra year — or, in a longer-shot scenario, that the Dodgers or Yankees will find a way to move other contracts to open the door to a Darvish signing. For the most part, this seems to represent a continuation of the status quo, as is the case for the other top starters.
  • As for Jake Arrieta, we have not heard a ton of public chatter. There isn’t much new, it seems, but Nightengale does suggest that one hypothetical possibility isn’t likely: the incumbent Cubs have “barely even engaged in contract talks” with their former staff ace, per the report. That is not very surprising, of course. The sides already know one another (and their respective bargaining positions) quite well. And it’s clear that, while a reunion has always remained hypothetically possible, both team and player intended to explore alternatives during the winter. Still, it’s notable that they have evidently not circled back around to one another to this point.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Indians Discussion Edwin Encarnacion J.D. Martin J.D. Martinez Jackie Bradley Jr. Jake Arrieta Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Predictions Yu Darvish

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Three July Trade Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | March 31, 2008 at 8:58am CDT

I’m in a prognosticating mood; here are three July trade deadline predictions.

  • Phillies acquire Joe Blanton for Carlos Carrasco and Adrian Cardenas.  Pat Gillick’s last hurrah.
  • Padres acquire Jason Bay for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Wade LeBlanc.  Bay returns to San Diego to provide some power and solve the left field issue.  Chase Headley takes over at third for the Padres.
  • Rays acquire Javier Vazquez for Wade Davis and Desmond Jennings.  Just a fun prediction to ponder.  In this scenario the Sox opt for a complete rebuild and the Rays make a somewhat surprising playoff push.
  • Your turn.  Why are my proposals ridiculous?  What reasonable July trade scenarios can you concoct?

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2008 Cy Young Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | March 31, 2008 at 8:35am CDT

Let’s make some 2008 Cy Young picks…

AL: Justin Verlander.  Runner up: Erik Bedard.

NL: Johan Santana.  Runner up: Jake Peavy.

Who are you taking?

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2008 MVP Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | March 27, 2008 at 11:00am CDT

I’m not going to make wacky, sleeper MVP picks just for the sake of it.  Here’s who I’ve got:

AL: Alex Rodriguez.  Runner up: Miguel Cabrera.

NL: David Wright.  Runner up: Matt Holliday.

Let’s see your picks in the comments!

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2008 Rookie of the Year Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | March 26, 2008 at 12:27pm CDT

Before the 1996 season, I predicted that Derek Jeter and Todd Hollandsworth would win the Rookie of the Year awards.  I believe that was the last time I made an accurate preseason award prediction.  However, requests for award picks were common in yesterday’s chat.  I didn’t post any because I wanted some time to mull it over.  I’ll post more predictions over the next few days. 

Here are my 2008 Rookie of the Year predictions; I’m interested to see yours in the comments.  Tough call in the NL, lot of good choices.

AL: Clay Buchholz.  Runners up: Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain.

NL: Kosuke Fukudome.  Runners up: Johnny Cueto, Geovany Soto, Clayton Kershaw.

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