Odds and Ends: Papelbon, Darvish, Crisp

Let's round up some morning links.

• McCovey Chronicles feels that the Jose Castillo signing reduces the Joe Crede threat level for the Giants.
• Jonathan Papelbon wants to drive the market for closers upward.
• Keith Law discusses J.P. Ricciardi's decision to overrule scouting advisers and draft Ricky Romero over Troy Tulowitzki for the Blue Jays back in '05.
• If Yu Darvish is posted after this season, will it cost $75MM just to negotiate with him?
• From Buster Olney on Sunday: "Rival teams are not entirely sure if the Red Sox are devoted to the idea of trading Coco Crisp."
• Pedro Martinez will not worry about his next contract until after the season.

Comments

[jza1218]

Wow...Law really was harsh against Ricciardi.

Good for him

[XD23]

Closers are one of the most volatile positions in baseball. Just ask any fantasy baseball player. Spending $10+ mil on a closer is kinda scary. Just ask the Blue Jays. Ryan signed a huge deal. Then he was hurt for most of 2007. Accardo making around the Min comes in and does as well as BJ could.

[start_wearing_purple]

Heh, I always hear Riccardi is a stubborn jerk, it seems Law agrees.

As for Darvish, does he want to come to the majors? Last I heard he was indifferent. I know the Nippon Ham Fighters could post him anyway, but they can't make him sign a contract. It's not like with Matsuzaka who wanted to come to the US and Seibu threatened to send him to the minors if he didn't sign a contract. Really this will only become a really interesting story when Boras signs Darvish.

[stellar]

Who's a bigger idiot.... Ricciardi or Papelbon? I can't decide.

I'm gonna go with Papelbon. Go ahead and drive your pricetag up... You'll be out of a job. Closers are the most overvalued players in baseball... and maybe all sports. Their production is easily replaceable (maybe not 100%) for a fraction of the cost.

[siliconmessiah]

I have to agree, stellar. Closers only play one-two innings of baseball maximum a game. Seeing 75 or so innings from them at most, who wants to spend $200K an inning for these guys?

[DeJay]

A former employee attacking a decision made by his old boss? I like Law and some of his writings but he does seem to have his own agenda.

Hindsight is always 20-20 and even if Law did advocate picking Tulowitski over Romero, prospect evaluation is not an exact science and history is littered with these types of decisions.

[bjsguess]

Wow - I am in a totally different camp than some of these posters.

Closers provide a valuable service. One that is overlooked. Having a shut down closer is a great thing to have.

When you look at guys like Rivera, Hoffman, Nathan, Wagner, K-Rod, etc you see guys who are locks to finish the game. And while you can develop a shut-down closer it's easier said than done. Plenty of amazing short relievers have tried their hand at closing. Few succeed. It will be interesting to watch a team like the Cubs this year. They might be shopping for a closer real soon.

Two caveats ... first, I do think mediocre closers are vastly overpaid. They can be replaced by cheaper players. Of course, the same thing is true with starting pitchers.

Second, we need to abandon statistics like saves when it comes to measuring effectiveness. Having no body on with a 3 run lead and 3 outs to go isn't a tremendous feat.

[XD23]

So you think a guy who pitches 70 Innings should get paid like Albert Pujols, Roy Oswalt or Ichiro?

I know that its not easy but its not impossible to find a viable closer cheaper.

Look at the stats. there are only 2 closers in the top 15 in saves this season that were top 15 in saves in 2002. Trevor hoffman and Billy Wagner. 4 in the top 20 (Rivera and Isringhausen).

That is a lot of turn over in just 5 seasons. Do you think your team should spend huge money on a closer instead of an everyday player or a starter?

[start_wearing_purple]

Hypothetical question: Which contract do you prefer, Carlos Silva for 12 million a year or Papelbon for a hypothetical 10-12 million a year.

This is where the market is going. This isn't the old days where a guy was expected to go the distance. A bullpen and a guy who can clean up 40-50 games a year is required for a championship team. You really need an ace in the hole. Can anyone really argue the Yankees would still have had a dynasty without Rivera? No matter what you answer you still have to say those yankee teams looked like a lock to win when Rivera toed the rubber.

The point being this, everyone is getting overpaid, closers want their turn. Is Papelbon an idiot? No, despite the fact that his mouth is starting to get too big for his face, but you can say the same about Hammels and Fielder right now.

So in conclusion, no closers aren't overrated. When you see Rivera, Papelbon, Jenks, Nathan, K-Rod, Putz, Hoffman, etc coming out of the pen you get the cold hard feeling the game is over.

[start_wearing_purple]

Oh, one thing I forgot to mention, I think giving more than a 3 year deal to a closer would be silly. High price tag? Fine, it happens, but long term contract for position with high stress physically and mentally? No.

[XD23]

Technically the 1st WS in the 'Dynasty Years' had John Wetteland at closer. And when Boston won his 1st WS this century they had Foulke closing.

A Championship team needs more then a good closer.

[siliconmessiah]

How high are your chances of losing in the 9th inning when you are up by 3 runs? I know that anything can and will happen from time to time but I just don't see it as being any more important than the first 8 innings of the game.

[start_wearing_purple]

XD23, in 1996 yes, but that's a weak technicality considering Wetteland was a good closer. Also in 2004 Foulke was a solid closer, funny how fast people forget that.

Also I never said a championship team only needs a good closer, I said you need one. Hell, you need several good arms, leaky pens lose ball games.

All I'm saying is if the choice is spending money on a medicore innings eater or an ace closer I'm going with the ace closer.

[fgsfsfbbbrd]

i wouldnt mind the sox keeping Crisp. he's a really good player, albeit he hasnt been as good as he could be in Boston, but he's a stellar defender

[allabouthephils]

Fausto Carmona, Brett Myers, Curt Schilling and many others...

Not to forget the countless ... maybe hundreds of pitchers who have blown leads in crunch time during the playoffs... Armando Benitez anyone ??? How about Bob Stanley ??? That might be a bit too far back for some of you... What about just last year and good ole Trevor Hoffman... He is as good as it gets and he couldn't get it done when it counted... I'm not a Red Sox fan or a Yankees fan but i'll take either of them for 15MM a year... They can have the 9th for that much as long as they get the job done when it counts... Pap is in a class all by himself at this point...

[maximumpotential]

"Posted by: allabouthephils | March 24, 2008 at 01:47 PM"

As a Yankees fan I couldn't agree more, even with Pap being #1.

[allabouthephils]

ummmm not even...

allabouthephils is allabouthephils.....

maximumpotential needs a retinal scan..

I am not a Yankees fan... But, I do agree that Pap is the best closer in baseball...

[allabouthephils]

"Posted by: maximumpotential | March 24, 2008 at 01:58 PM"

I love Francona... I have so much man love for him... That chew all wadded up in his lip... YUM YUM YUM... We can swap that spit anyday... GO SOX....

[bjsguess]

My original post was about value. In today's world $11m buys you a mediocre starting pitcher or a decent/good positional player.

If you can use that money instead to lock up someone who has been arguably the best closer over the past 4 seasons it's hard to argue against that.

The fact is, every person has their biases when it comes to value. I've read a million comments about paying Santana top dollars is silly because he is ONLY a pitcher. Then you hear "experts" telling you the game is all about pitching and defense.

In my mind, each area of the game deserves attention and resources. We look at middle relievers with great stats and assume that they can close games. Turns out, more often than not, that they fail. Closers are unique and do perform a very valuable service. Sure they get junk saves. But for every easy one there is another situation where the pressure is really on.

[milehigh78]

I have to say, I agree with the general consensus here. With very few exceptions, the turnover at closer- relievers in general, actually- is too high for such an enormous contractual obligation. I don't think you can knock Paps or his intelligence for asking for the big bucks and he may even be among the few to deserve it, but as a general rule, it's a silly place to drop heavy coin. And just because someone is stupid enough to pay Carlos Silva $12MM doesn't mean it's smart to spend that much on a reliever.

Pappelbon has yet to prove his worth over the long-term (like Rivera before his big contract), which is why I'd be hesitant to throw that kind of money his way. Boston can afford it, to be sure, and Paps may be the exception to the rule; another Rivera. Still...is it worth the risk? Remember when Heathcliff Slocumb was a lights out closer? The point made above is a good one- there are only a handful of guys who maintain the dominance of a Rivera over that kind of duration. And there's always another kid coming up with a 97MPH fastball and no secondaries.

The Orioles are an interesting example of what happens when too much emphasis is placed upon relief pitching (admittedly, this is not so much about closers as it is BP guys as a group). They dropped an absurd amount of money on Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford only to have the whole thing blow up on their face. Similarly, Chris Ray was the closer of the future; his first year quite similar in many ways to Paps' (not as good, but I think he had something like 35 saves in 37 chances or something ridiculous like that). Now his future is cloudy- the result of injury. Crap happens, but for the kind of dough we're talking about, the reward better be worth the risk.

I'm not saying closer is an unimportant role; far from it. I'm simply agreeing with others on this thread, that there are considerably more worthy ways to spend the cash. Someone brought up the Cubs above, but I think they're a great example of smart, selective spending. They've dropped tons of money on the Sorianos and Fukudomes of the world, but when it comes to the 'pen, they've developed talent from within. Marmol and now Ceda give the organization star-caliber future closers at a fraction of the cost.

As soon as their game starts to slip...bam!...you bring in the next big thing.

The Sox brought in Gagne last year; sending Texas a bevy of interesting young players. For what?! Any Boston fan will tell you about that deal. Just be ready for some profanity.

The list of examples is endless while the flip side has a weak case, built on five or six guys- Rivera, Hoffman, Eckersley...?- who burned bright over the course of a career rather than the more typical flame out.

[gig]

From Darvish article (a good one):

"In a country with a black-and-white attitude, Darvish is the color, the entertainment, the rebel, the wild side, the kind of character Major League Baseball loves, and people here nonetheless revere him for it. He wears his cap with a slight tilt to the left and his smile the same, the establishment his to mock. While boldness is generally frowned upon, Darvish is an exception, almost beyond reproach, in spite of his demeanor, his background and his follies.

He gets away with it because he throws shutouts on opening day, and then despite all that the Japanese teach about humility, Yu Darvish, who prefers honesty, stands up in front of the crowd and says: 'That was exactly what I expected.'"

He'd fit right in here.

[Lezard]

Man, Jeff Passan is the biggest idiot there is.

Nice article about Darvish, although I don't understand the point. Is he trying to get people excited about him? I hope he doesn't come to MLB for at least 7 years. I love NPB, and I don't want to see him go. Is Uehara Koji going to be Japan's top pitcher if Darvish Yu leaves? NPB is desperately trying to cling to credibility right now, losing Darvish would be a death blow. The Ham Fighter's stands have been perennially empty for decades. Thanks to Darvish, they are filling seats.

[BxSquad]

ha!, i would hate to see someone post 75 million for yu darvish.

its not like when he comes to mlb he will be unhittable,

a lot of good mlb pitchers dont get contracts for 100 million, its sad to see a guy who never pitched in mlb gettin 100 milliioon contract.

a's are killling japanese pitchers, so there is no doubt in my mind when yu darvish comes over here, he would be ok,

but nowhere close to johan santana, he dont desirve 50 million either.

stay in japan league man, where you can be an ace.

[allabouthephils]

"ha!, i would hate to see someone post 75 million for yu darvish.

its not like when he comes to mlb he will be unhittable,

a lot of good mlb pitchers dont get contracts for 100 million, its sad to see a guy who never pitched in mlb gettin 100 milliioon contract.

a's are killling japanese pitchers, so there is no doubt in my mind when yu darvish comes over here, he would be ok,

but nowhere close to johan santana, he dont desirve 50 million either.

stay in japan league man, where you can be an ace."

Posted by: BxSquad | March 24, 2008 at 10:00 PM

Only MLB teams can develop talent ??? I bet this kid would be a legitimate pitcher in the majors... He has the stuff, the attitude and the confidence... The last two are the biggest keys in the equation... I'm pretty sure we are going to get our opportunity to see what this kid is made of pretty soon...

[Knucksey]

2009 Yankees Rotation:
Sabathia
Darvish
Wang
Hughes
Kennedy
Keep Joba in the Pen, and sign Teixeira/Guerrero. I know, I know, but they will be dumping 100M+.

[Jays Believer 92,93]

J.P, you fail we could have had Troy Tulowitzki. I hope you get fired this season even if the Jays do make the playoffs.

[Santana/Beckett FTW]

"papelbon has yet to prove his potential..."

relook over that. Papelbon has yet to be figured out. mariano's cut fastball is no longer what it used to be and he got $45. I agree closers are most overpaid position in baseball and overvalued, but if you are talking about papelbon you are talking about the best there is. since he entered the league no closer has been as reliable and consistant as he has. lets not forget mariano blowing 3 of 4 saves in a row, nor lets forget trevor hoffmans chokejob. it happens to everyone. overall papelbon is the best there is and deserves money equal to the other greats. the red sox are going to either sign him for 12-14 million this year, or wait for him to dominate yet again and pay 16-18 million. if i were them i would sign now. As for the yankees yes sabathia will most likely join the yankees in 09, i agree with you on that. the red sox have no need for starting pitching and will only chime in to make the yankees life more difficult. it will be santana sweepstakes all over again. however i dont see sabathia pitching well past 33-34. hes got that overweight build, doesn't look like he takes good care of himself etc. I say give him to the yankees. let him join the randy johnsons, mike mussina, roger clemens, and all the other greats who have fallen in yankees jerseys on the wrong side of 30 and 35. Wang is disappointed in the yankees organization. i think he may catch a taste of the free agent market as soon as he's eligable. they should have thrown him some kind of bone to keep him happy as the sox did with papelbon.