Quiet On The Roberts Front?

Assuming (I know asking a lot for some of you) you could get the Roberts deal done. What about then sending Marquis/ Demp and a Hart/ Ascanio to the Tigers for Polanco? (The idea being Polanco could play SS.)

As for the Internet trade rumors, Piniella said: ''The only thing I do on the Internet is trade stocks once in a while. I don't trade infielders.''

I have a feeling this is referring to this web site. Pretty cool!
That being said I really hope the O's and cubs are closer with the talks than crunchy/adun and darkstars. :)

Why did the Cubs-Tigers rumor get ported over here in the comments?

A Polanco deal would have to include a Howry/Wood/Marmol type bullpen person as that is where their greatest need is, and Polanco is an awesome player...he won't go for mid-levels or prospects. (Is Marmol still considered a prospect?)

Ok...I have to throw this out there. I know I'm a Cubs fan, and everyone is sick of seeing lineups and all...but there is nothing else to do at the moment besides a lot of speculation. If we could make the trade for both Roberts and Palanco...

1. Roberts
2. Palanco
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

I think thats as good as any in the NL, especially if Soto and Pie play to projections.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Your correct Adun.

Howry is a Type A FA
Demspter is a Type B FA

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

Thanks INOK. That is potentially 3 first round picks (if you count sandwich) if those two leave. I would probably resign Howry if possible, but he is going to get a very good contract no matter where he goes. Its tempting to just taket he picks, depending on who signs him.

I don't think the Tigers are going to be trading Palanco either sweetswingingbw, I was just saying how sweet that lineup would be. If they want RP though, I think the Cubs have 4 guys that are as good as anyone...but they aren't going to give one of them up without getting something worthwhile. Got any good SS prospects?

I can see 2 pitchers and 1-2 everyday players for Roberts. All depends on the names.

I really hope we don't give up more than 2 for Roberts...but some of the guys proposed like Ceda and Huesby are both A level guys, so they are at least a year or three away. Lou likes Ceda, but he just isn't ready this year.

It's quiet on the Roberts front because the O's are scouting potential players. The Cubs are scouting Roberts, but he is the target. Maybe it involves Payton, but Roberts is the focus and the Cubs already want him. For the O's, they are scouting several players and it will take more time. Talks will pick up, unless the O's do a complete turn and back out.

studio,
The only way the O's back out is if they're underwhelmed by the Cubs' offer. I think that between Chicago's strong desire to obtain Roberts and Baltimore's clear need to rebuild, the deal will eventually happen. It just might take more than what some of the Cubs fans here have been proposing. While prospects stir the imagination, though, the reality is that more often than not, they turn out to be busts. Roberts is a pretty sure thing and, in the short run, he'll make the Cubs a much better ballclub. It's a worthy sacrifice.

Polanco? At SS? That is crazy. Polanco has played 122 games ever at SS - why, because his range is terrible there. league RngFactor - 3.9, PP's - 3.28. Also he hasn't played there in a while - once in 2005 and 13 times in 2002. He is 2B and 3B only. This is the same thinking that prompts people to say we should start derosa there.

To say that he is awesome is also a bit ridiculous in that he has only been a regular starter for two seasons with detroit. He has been a super utility guy before that, playing A LOT, but at 3b and 2b.

Finally, where did the idea for this trade come from? I haven't seen any reports on polanco to cubs. It seems to be that this is the absinthe induced ravings of a cubs fan lunatic.

Nice INOK...

skkrman7482, I don't remember who brought it up, but its just speculation from the "Detroit looking to Cubs for Relief" thread. I said Howry\Dempster\Cedeno or Patterson (whichever isn't in the Roberts Deal)...

We were all just trying to figure out who Detroit has that we would want

I already see what you mean INOK; this site is the internet's version of crack. My girlfriend told me it's her or the website. She wasn't that hot anyway.

Lets try to see if we can think about the whole equation again for a sec…

Both Chicago and Baltimore are having roster problems right now. The O’s can not take on multiple 25-Man hitters & 40-Man guys period (esp OFers); where the Cubs have to figure out what they are going to do to add two needs while having no real room to work. Assuming they will go with 12 pitchers, the Cubs 13 hitters (pre trade) almost certainly looks like this:

C Soto / 1B Lee / 2B DeRosa / SS Theriot / 3B Ramirez / LF Soriano / CF Pie / RF Fukudome

Blanco (Backup C) / Ward (1B/OF) / Fontenot (more polished/reliable/versatile +fielding MI) / Murton (Corner OF) / Cedeno (out of options)

…You can see that they have no real room for a back-up CFer (probably the reason they have been trying Cedeno out there, incase the trade doesn’t go down and all). They would have to remove 2 of those bench guys if they were to bring in Roberts + a back-up CFer. Well, Cedeno is either included in the deal or possibly even gets DFAed. What else do you do with him; carry him despite his probably being little more than a wasted roster spot? Ability wise, it looks like Fontenot (being sent to minors) and Cedeno (included in the trade) who are moved to give the Cubs a bench of:
Blanco / Ward / DeRosa (Roberts taking 2B of course) / Murton / Payton.
…But that doesn’t work too well either since its so heavy OF and so light IF. Murton is tradable with Fontenot staying ~ that makes near perfect sense and you recoup some of what I’m saying should probably be given for Roberts + Payton…

But say that they don’t get Payton from the Cubs (so many Cubs fans say they don’t want him anyway) Then we have something like:
Blanco / Ward / DeRosa / Murton / Fontenot
You can see the obvious problem there, they still need that Vet back-up CFer they keep saying the want ~ and you cant blame them since the other options are Fukudome (no ML ABs and off injury) and Soriano (been there, done that) as Back-up CFers. Sure, you can use Patterson or Fuld I guess if you were to send Murton to the minors, but they would be the same rookie-mistake/gamble that Pie is, so that doesn’t make sense and is really why the team wants the Vet.

So what do they do? Do you trade Murton and sign Lofton? He’s hardly a CFer anymore and keeps saying he wants more secure playing time anyway (apperantly holding out for just that)… Do you trade Murton + Prospect for Byrd? I think you can see why the Rangers are saying Murton + Pros for Byrd now, the Cubs seem to have their backs against a wall in those talks really, esp since they are asking for a guy the Rangers don’t want to just dump (corner types are more the surplus than CF types ~ much like in Baltimore w/Payton). If that was your other option, wouldn’t it be better to just include a guy like Colvin or Veal for Payton + cash and either keep Murton in the minors incase he is needed or deal him for some return himself? Where are the other options? Crisp will cost you a couple prospects (no, the BoSox don’t need Marquis or Dempster, they have BP roster problems themselves really, and a surplus of starters they can try who are not obligated to 2YR/17M). Cleveland has Choo easily avail; but he’s off TJ surgery and Cleveland has a knack for picking teams low minors out from under ya when you come knocking. What other Vet/Polished CF types are possibly avail? Jacque Jones? I think The Tigers want him… (hindsight sucks). Kotsay was avail and dealt, going for a rather extreme prospect himself. Its really a sellers market on this one…

Really, as a whole the Cubs roster restraints and two obvious needs (Roberts and back-up Vet CF) makes the situation almost work itself out with Roberts + Payton for probably more than they want to deal so they don’t instead have to do Package for Roberts then Murton+ or 2Pros for a Vet CF. Seems much better idea to just trade a package like mine (which includes another Projectable Prospect for Payton) and keep Murton (or send him elseware for prospects) then to try and pull off multiple deals hoping you get as much as you give, are able to hold onto that projectable prospect you are fighting for, and fill the holes you have…

"Jacque Jones? I think The Tigers want him… (hindsight sucks). "

No, it doesn't. The cubs don't want him, and never will.

What if the Cubs trade Patterson instead of Cedeno, and Cedeno is the backup CF? That could very well be why the Cubs have been playing him in the OF, although he played SS today.

Gallagher\Ceda\Patterson\and a low level prospect position player seems to work perfectly then, right?

And I'm not opposed to the Cubs trading Murton at all, he isn't going to get enough ABs here...unless injury. Either way, I'm fine with Cedeno as a backup CFer if we don't get one another way.

" If that was your other option, wouldn’t it be better to just include a guy like Colvin or Veal for Payton + cash and either keep Murton in the minors incase he is needed or deal him for some return himself?"

No, Payton x3 isn't worth Veal or Colvin, and this scenario would allow us to keep them both.

Well put. Kick that knowledge, dark! I DO think the O's get a nice package, but I worry we'll end of eating Marquis' contract to make it happen. Oh well; let him eat innings while we suck. Now...if only the O's can find takers for Huff, Gibbons (HA! What a joke that contract turned out to be), Mora, and maybe even MIllar. Sadly, I think only Millar has a contract that runs out after '08 and none are clearly Type A or even Type B FA's. How the hell did we get ourselves into this mess?!

O's could be high on Patterson, but make no mistake, he's no centerpiece. As far as Cedeno in CF, dark pretty much explained the issue there: the Cubs, by all accounts, are looking for a VETERAN CF to back up/support Pie. The point being that he can spell Pie or take over if the kid is struggling too much. Cedeno presents the same problem as Pie on a contender like Chicago. Payton isn't worth Colvin (maybe Veal), but it doesn't work that way. It's a package deal. Rather than Payton=Colvin, it's Roberts + Payton= Colvin + Gallagher + Cedeno (or, as you pointed out, Patterson) + Veal or, if that's too rich for Hendry, maybe Huesby. We can all debate whether that's giving up too much, but as I pointed out in my last post, value works on a sliding scale dependent upon the basic tenets of supply/demand. Thus, I might- MIGHT- agree that the Cubs are giving up more than they're getting in this hypothetical, but that's the cost of improving NOW and dealing for a player whose value is inflated by the situation. If McPhail has half a brain, he's going to milk this for all its worth.

This is getting ridiculous. Rumors are on, rumors are cold, talks are serious, talks are not going on. Tim, I think we should just not talk about Roberts until it officially happens are until it offially is not happening.

An amazing number of posts for a thread that says nothing is happening.

lol - we're on the same page.

Dark and milehigh,

I'm not kidding myself. The cubs are looking for a RIGHT HANDED hitting CF to back up Pie to spell him against tough lefties...veteran is good, but that is why Kenny Lofton doesn't work. Thats why Byrd does work, he is right handed. Ronny is right handed, and he would be a fine CF backup. I mean honestly, I don't seem him playing more than 15 games or so in CF anyway...

So again, Jaque Jones isn't wanted, he is done with this team. His defense is good in CF, surprisingly, but his RF defense was bad and his arm is one of the worst for a RF of all time.

Ronny is just fine as a backup milehigh.

If it came to that trade without Colvin for Payton for cash, they would do it without Payton and just get Roberts. Thats what I'm trying to say here. I know its a package, but it could be worked without those two very easily, as I have pointed out in my trade scenario.

By the way, I never ever ever said Patterson was any centerpiece, I said that they might want him more than Cedeno, because they are "high on Patterson". So that means the deal could get done, and we still have Ronny. I just don't think its as hard as you are making it. Milehigh, can you tell me that my trade scenario wouldn't get McPhail jumping all over it?? Gallagher, Ceda, AND Patterson AND a low level position prospect?

Could Marquis be traded along with a mid to low level prospect for Reggie Willits? They are having a little issues with injuries with pitchers. He is an above average CF but could play other OF positions. Hits well , he's younger with some upside. Could be a decent bench players who could see some good PT.

I doubt the Angels would want Marquis in their rotation. I could see an even swap of Marshall for Willits. Marshall is a consistent lefty that could slide in the back of the Angels rotation and could put up decent numbers in a weak division. As for Willits, he is similar to Juan Pierre in that he has speed on the bases but doesn't 'Wow' you when you see him. Although, he does take a walk every now and then, switch hits, and he's cheap. He wouldn't demand as much as a corner outfielder/infielder with power. I think with Willits, what you see is what you get.

What I do like about Willits is he's not as established as Crisp or Payton to feel entitled to a certain chunk of playing time. At least I think he'd have a better attitude when used as a pinch-runner, pinch-hitter, and spot starter in CF or LF.

How is he defensively? I read a little scouting on him. It doesn't say much about his arm or range.

To the dude knocking the activity on this thread despite the fact that nothing is happening...lighten up. We know nothing's going on. It's in the title or whatever you want to call it. We just like speculating. It's FUN. Further, it's kind of what this site is all about. So yeah...nothing's happening out there. Here, though, we're getting the deal done (LOL).
Aduncaroo- I wasn't attacking you or anything. And yes, I think your proposal is close. I still think Colvin is going to be a part of the deal, but otherwise, we're around the mark. I get what you're saying about Payton, but I wonder if it's that simple. I could see it playing out where McPhail insists on Colvin and Hendry counters by demanding Payton as a result (instead of Payton being offered up by the O's and McPhail THEN demanding Colvin). Also, I doubt that there's going to be any 'jumping at' deals on the part of McPhail. I could certainly be wrong, but based on- as I put it earlier- 'who's holding the hammer,' it seems more likely that McPhail makes the proposal and the Cubs either accept or don't. Obviously we're going to see the old offer/counteroffer arrangement, but in the end, it's going to be the O's who tell the Cubs how high to jump. Whether or not they do so...well, that's up to Hendry.

“I want to focus on Willits because he is capable of playing center field. In their 2007 handbook, Baseball America called him an "above-average center fielder with an average arm and plus speed." So he clearly won't embarrass himself with the glove."

…You really, really, really don’t want Willits. Pods V3.0 ~ see that thread for if you want more details…

“Marshall is a consistent lefty”

…Consistent is unfortunately the one thing you cant really call Marshall. And if the Cubs are giving up Gallagher, I think they would probably want to hold onto him anyway. Besides, you don’t want to buy high on Willits (see above)

I don't think Willits is an everyday player. He has a couple of nice qualities in speed and a decent OBP, but he seems like the kind of guy that, the more he plays, the more his flaws are exposed. I'm going to go with Dark's analysis on that one because he's seen the guy play. If we get him cheap and keep the commitment to Pie...then yeah, it might be worth it to get him as a backup.
And as for Colvin, I do have a sinking feeling that he's on McPhail's radar. I know the low walk totals have the sabermetrics types down on Colvin a bit...i.e. Keith Law -- but I'm going to go with Tim Wilken on this one. He's had a lot more success as a baseball evaluator in the real world than Law did. Anyway, Colvin playing LF when Orioles scouts were watching made my jaw drop to the floor. That can't be an accident. Colvin has always played CF and RF, two positions taken already on the O's. You have to think him playing left was for their benefit.
Adun, I have to agree with you on Jacque Jones. You have to watch Jones everyday to realize what a complete bonehead he is. Since Piniella arrived, the Cubs have systematically gotten rid of the low baseball IQ guys. First it was Jones, then Ohman, then Angel Pagan. Poor situational hitting, baserunning gaffs...these are the things that drive Lou nuts and Jones embodied it for the Cubs. His negatives just outweigh the positives. Pagan was another one...absent minded on the bases, lack of focus in the field and on the plate. And the guy is a RH hitting CF! The Cubs thought so little of him that they just let him go even though they didn't have another option in house as a RH backup to Pie. Now Adun, I know you're a bigger fan of Cedeno than I am, but I think he's another one cut from the same cloth, he's prone to the same kind of mistakes as Jones and Pagan... and I think his days with a Piniella led team are numbered. People like Jones, Pagan, and Cedeno never live up to their physical skills because of a poor aptitude for the game.
All in all, the Cubs should keep their options open. Willits, Payton...another guy the Cubs are looking at is Brian Anderson, the one time top prospect of the White Sox. He's a great fielder, a good athlete and he's righty. He's having a great spring but he still may come cheaper than the alternatives. No matter who they get of those three, the bottom line is the same: the Cubs need Pie to step up because I wouldn't want any of those alternatives playing everyday.

Oh, my bad ~ I thought consistent was said in a good kind of way… hehehe…

Although if we get to include not-so-positive aspects, I would even go as far as saying that Marshall is so consistent that he is near clock-work. Check this out:

Marshall’s 2007 season:
07 First 5 starts ~ 1.000 WHIP, 7 BB - 27 K, 2.12 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
07 Next 7 starts ~ 1.486 WHIP, 15 BB - 21 K, 4.04 ERA, 5 IP per start
07 Final 7 starts ~ 1.628 WHIP, 11 BB - 16 K, 6.03 ERA, 4.1 IP per start

Marshall’s 2006 season:
06 First 5 starts ~ 0.872 WHIP, 8 BB - 20 K, 3.45 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
06 Next 7 starts ~ 1.591 WHIP, 22 BB - 27 K, 5.17 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
06 Next 7 starts ~ 1.750 WHIP, 16 BB - 20 K, 6.00 ERA, 5.1 IP per start
06 Final 5 starts ~ 1.853 WHIP, 13 BB - 10 K, 8.34 ERA, 4.2 IP per start

However, I still would want another prospect included if I was to send Marshall to the Angels for Willits…

As far as what you said about Willits ~ two things… 1) How do you figure its Willits or Roberts to fill the “speed at the top of the lineup”? You wouldn’t play Willits over Pie, would you? If not, then Willits wouldn’t be in the lineup; and, in turn, not provide speed to the top of the lineup… 2) Are you sure you really want Willits? You do realize that he has less power than Juan Pierre, right? All the SB in the world doesn’t help the fact that the guy cant get the ball out of the infield… Last year he had 518 PA and only 21 XBH ~ I’m fairly confident that must be a record! Its one of those stats that just seems unfathomable for a guy that hit nearly 300 and has ++speed…

Carlos Zambrano hit a 440 foot home run yesterday in ST...how could you not love that guy?

Colvin might very well be an O's target. I think Veal is, too. Hmmm...

When are the Cubs going to collect on the Play to be named from the Twins?

Would Craig Monroe and a nice young lefty pen type guy for Murton and former Twin Tim Lahey. I know we have the PTBN in our giving the Twins Monroe but... I think he is on a 1 year deal can play all 3 outfield positions and is a RH Bat. Plus the Twins need a guy like Murton. He can play LF and DH and that is why they got Monroe.

I think that if Hendry is sticking to his guns that Ceda is untouchable...than Colvin is probably the next choice.

To me, I would rather give up Ceda though...bc if Pie busts we have to hope for Fuld to turn into this great player or buy another outfielder...anyway, hopefully Pie plays to half his potential, and we don't need Colvin anyway.

I still say that Payton HAS 0 value if we take his contract, I mean none. The O's get the roster space and the millions he is owed...so he probably has negative value. The funny part is, I'm not sure that there is anything published to say the Cubs have interest in Payton at all, right?

Yeah, I was willing to involve Colvin from day one. Only because of the blocked positions, not that I want to just get rid of him. I think Lou likes Ceda, too. Ofcourse, it's early.

On Payton, I think the fact he would be Pie's RH back up has the talk going. That, and the fact of a possible salary dump for salary dump scenerio of Payton for Marquis includes the chatter. I'd rather keep Murton over Payton, other than Murton can't back up CF. I am not all for Payton unless Marquis would be involved.

I hear Pie is trying to pull everything early on. He better try to hit it where it is pitched.

Jay Payton is making 5 million dollars next year. His line from 07 was

.256/.292./376

Yes, you read that right. He has no value...I'm sorry, but he is a waist of a roster spot. The Cubs would be doing a HUGE favor to the O's simply by taking him. I mean, a sub .700 OPS for 5 mil???

yes Adun, and your continued saying that wont change anything. What you feel is the case, isnt necessarily the case though. Its supply and demand, its the fact that a Payton isnt available where multiple teams could use a guy like him.

The Cubs want Bryd but dont want to give up Murton + Prospect. Well, Murton actually holds more value than Colvin ~ Murton atleast has shown actual production at multiple locations (including the Majors), he can actually help a club! Colvin though has yet to do a single thing, anywhere ~ he is 100% projection and a complete maybe, all to possibly become a mid-level corner OFer (which Murton can be considered now). So our saying Payton will cost less than Byrd (and really much less because of the Prospect that would need to be included with Murton) is out of line? Think about it man…

Darkstar,

I don't know why you say that Colvin "has yet to do a single thing, anywhere". He played 60 something games in both single and double A last year and hit .306 and .291 respectfully. He has shown a little bit of pop and some decent speed as well.

I agree that he is still a maybe, but it isn't like he hasnt performed each place he has been. Let's give him SOME credit.

I tend to agree with Cub4Life on Colvin. SOME credit is deserved...though, as darkstar said and Cub4Life concedes, he's still a big 'maybe.' Furthermore, Aduncaroo, darkstar is right about supply/demand and Payton. Numbers have little to do with actual value. It's what the market bears. I tend to agree that Payton blows and even that the Cubs might be wise to steer clear, but the market- not me- says that Payton still holds value.

“I don't know why you say that Colvin "has yet to do a single thing, anywhere". He played 60 something games in both single and double A last year and hit .306 and .291 respectfully. He has shown a little bit of pop and some decent speed as well.
I agree that he is still a maybe, but it isn't like he hasnt performed each place he has been. Let's give him SOME credit.”

When you think about a Minor-League players numbers, esp hitters in the low minors, you have to consider where they were put up. Those BAs (and lines as a whole) hold a rough ML-Equivalent of .256/.272/.412 (AA) and .259/.290/.449 (A+). Add to it the .210/.247/.358 we see from his Low-A season, well you should be able to see the lack of showing really.

And I’m not saying it to dog him, that is no where ever the intent here. It is solely to give a realistic assessment of the situation as it is. He could very well live up to projections and provide solid production in the majors. Right now though, well we cant just expect it to happen because quite a bit of developing needs to take place. I actually think that’s probably why they have rushed him as quickly as they have despite his needing more low-minors work. They probably want him to face the usually more controlled pitching of AA, where he should be able to work on hitting guys who can control their breaking and offspeed stuff much better. You also see the better coaches high up. I imagine they wanted him to straight up and get as much time in with their best coaches seeing real pitching hoping to try to tap into that talent as quickly as possible before he becomes a longtime project. That and the fact that they probably want him to start showing rather quickly to validate taking him 2 rounds prior to his expected…

MileHigh, see above. Its really has nothing to do with not liking Colvin ~ its more about watching so many similar guys not progress and lose the hype as quick as they obtained it. His first year was considered a rather huge failure, and he didnt show much in the followup as well. Its just one where you need to be realistic, and realistically it might be geting close to pushing it. I think his being drafted in the first round, so much higher than he should have been, as added to peoples feelings where it might not really be warranted. As yes, its never been about Colvin for Payton, that was a hypothetical that ran a bit off track…

PS ~ ahhhh… Type-Key is quite often the most frustrating thing I have ever experienced.

By the way, Colvin projects to hit 20 to 25 HR and can play an adequate CF. That last part is why he is more valuable than Matt Murton. They have LF locked up for 7 more years and RF for 4. CF is the key here dark, which is why Murton is expendable unless he will be happy with a 4th outfielder role. Colvin is some very good CF insurance for 2009 if Pie busts. THAT is why he is much more valuable than you are giving him credit for.

Adun,

The thinking of “I don’t want to give up anything and I want stuff” or “that doesn’t look ideal so I will go with the mush riskier inhouse options” (generalizations ~ don’t jump at them because you know what I’m saying) is the kind of stuff that keeps teams down and in constant troubles.

I mean, let us not forget that the other option is to just forget the whole thing. Your team can go through the season with a back-up CFer who has no CF experience while hoping the prospect you are using ahead of him doesn’t show the same inability to even touch the ball. You can keep Cedeno and Fontenot as your infield depth. You can continue to hope that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez/Fukudome/DeRosa all have healthy and non-regressing seasons as they pass they continue to mature past their peak-age ranges. And you can keep your projectables and maybe 2-4 years down the road you’ll get lucky and one of those guys will provide a Marshall or Murton type help to your club. Shoot, maybe you are really lucky and you will get something comparable to the AS you are willing to leave on the table today! If you miss the playoffs, just remember you had a chance to upgrade. If none of those kids pan out, then just remember you wanted to hold onto them that badly. And if you are fired from your GM job, don’t say you weren’t warned…

“By the way, Colvin projects to hit 20 to 25 HR and can play an adequate CF. That last part is why he is more valuable than Matt Murton.”

…So he projects to something like Ryan Church? I think thats kind of my point the entire time, isnt it?

Gallagher\Ceda\Patterson

And milehigh, I do believe McFail would jump all over that.

Gallagher is who they have been rumored to be after as the centerpiece all along.

Ceda is the guy they would LOVE to get, but were told no. If jim bends and gives him up, McPhail would be a schoolgirl about it.

Patterson - O's are rumored to be "high on Patterson" and he has the potential to put up B-Rob numbers at the same position, as long as he can get better defensively, which he has shown to be doing this spring.

The O's would be absolutely foolish not to take that. Thats 3 of the organization's top 10 prospects, and 2 of the top 3 pitchers!

I see Ceda gave up 2 runs late and the they lost 2-1 to the A's. Also, I notice Lou is already in midseason form complaining about losing ST games late.

Possibly another reason that a trade hasn't been made yet is that the Orioles are hoping that another contender will come to view its second base situation as needing help.

A trade I would like to see would involve Colorado, which would be greatly improved with Roberts at second, and which has some excellent middle infield prospects, the area of the Orioles' least potential. Hector Gomez, Lance Nix, Chris Gomez, even Ian Stewart (if he can play second) would be targets with various upsides. Add a pitcher (Greg Reynolds?) or two, depending on the configuration, and it might be an excellent deal for both teams.

Laynce Nix is an outfielder/DH and is on the Brewers. I think you mean Jayson Nix. Do thier parents like Y's or what? :-)

Buddah,

“There is no question that the Cubs plan to keep Ceda as a reliever for his minor league career; he’s got a take no prisoner approach to the game.”
…I have seen similar on multiple reports ~ I think its safe to believe. He had dramatically better results and it would take a ton of strain off his arm while it fits his approach (from what I have read/heard) ~ its logical...

And yeah, totally agree that 3 BA top-100 guys might seem steep, I think its just the advancement of the guys that lowers it overall and that’s why I said that’s probably what they asked for. Colvin has shown very little and has an upside of somewhere around Church, we know that. Ceda is a BP arm with a 100-MPH FB and rather tremendous problems controlling it. Look at the ST stats; 2 BB, 2 HBP & 1 WP in 11 faced batters. He also has the extremely normal, but always fighting, arm problems because of said 100MPH FB. If they started with Pie + Gallagher + Pitcher (maybe someone like Huesby) then I think the natural progression goes to Gallagher + Colvin + Ceda as you step down from your demands.

The upside on all of the Cubs prospects is good, its just all of them are rather large risks to actually meet those upsides. It’s the reason why they are all ranked 3 star guys by BP, which is not exactly Grade-A. They are just not those solid, nearly sure-thing type guys; they are all projectable types who could reach that potential as easily as they tank. And unfortunately, prospects in that class are not generally held to the highest trade value prior to showing advancement on those possible skills. Infact, that type of prospect is exactly the kind you generally see packaged to bring in stars for the ML clubs. Depending on who the star is, there might be a true blue-chip thrown in or it could just be multiple projectable types if its a step down from mega-star… And people talk about the Cubs prospects and the low success rate of them. I think this is an attestment to these types of players, I think there is a history of this drafting style and inturn a questionable success rate because of how many such players do not evolve the way scouts feel they could down the road.

And yes, its very possible the O’s hold Patterson higher than my last post probably made it seem, but his upside isnt quite as high as Pie’s to begin with and he doesn’t come with the plus-side D. Pie to Patterson is quite a steep step, since Pie is really the highest upside guy they have asked for. Besides, I really think both sides would be much happier with a Cedeno inclusion ~ Baltimore gets a similar player with much better fielding in the IF while not taking away from the others included in the package; while you would have to imagine Chicago would be more than thrilled to include him because of his lack of options and questionable future with the club to begin with. I just cant see them happy with something like Gallagher + Ceda + Patterson over something like Gallagher + Colvin + Huesby + Cedeno…

Ahh, but who knows ~ we will see when (or possibly more fitting ~ IF) it ever gets done.

Baseball America considers Colvin's upside to be Shawn Green/Steve Finley. Tim Wilken has drafted 12 first rounders in a row to make majors, he built the best farm system in the game in Tampa. He saw something in Colvin. Let's see... should I go with the Baseball America/Tim Wilken evaluation or should I go with Darkstar's? Ummmm...I think I'll go with BA and Wilken.

Playwright, I don't think Colorado is going to give up a prospect as highly rated as Ian Stewart for Roberts. An interesting point made today as well is that Colorado doesn't seem to be too keen on signing Atkins long term. They may figure they can just keep Stewart as a low cost alternative at third. The other guys like Nelson and maybe Gomez might make sense but they're both pretty high risk players - particularly Gomez. And I don't know if I'd want Nix for Roberts either. Nix was pretty much a first round bust until putting up some decent, but not great numbers in the thin air Colorado Springs park...and that was his second full year in AAA.

studio.

Yeah, I don't remember the name of my source either. I posted it when it happened but I don't remember now. (They're have been quite a few posts in between!)

Anyway, it was a low level scout with no decisionmaking authority, so...

Dark,

I agree that Ceda will probably be groomed for end of the game type.

However if I am not mistaken the Tim Wilken draftees are protected for a peroid of time before the Cubs are allowed to trade them? I thought I read that was part of the deal with signing him. Wouldn't that make Colvin truly untouchable?

As far as the Cubs prospects and thier low success rate that should be viewed differently now with the addition of Tim Wilken? At least the newer crops?

Just out of curiosity if the cubs made this deal before the Tejada/Bedard trades would they be asking less? It seems to me that now this is their last big trade chip they are asking for more than the averages for Tejada/Bedard.

“Not misleading, you have the old kitchen sink strategy on this site where you throw outlandish things like the Marte/Phillips comparison or the Choo top 100 prospect (in 2003) and hope no one ever brings it up again. Sorry, if it's embarrassing to you, but it's not misleading. You said it. And Ryan Church is in between Green and Finley? That's a good one.”

See, its just the same complete bull you try to bring all the time despite you neither having a point or being anywhere near the truth. Did I say Marte was Phillips? No, but if you cant see the similarity between the two than you are probably a complete lost cause to ever grasp even the most common of concepts. Your obsession with the top-100 thing again? Seriously? You said the Indians weren’t possibly offering Top-100 type guys and I gave you a list that included everything starting with (and going much further than just) 2003. Your obsession with nitpicking it? Who knows why... Your point? There never was one… But you being the argumentative “talk loud and say nothing” type you are, you decide to repeat the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over again anyway without anything coming close to an actual point…

Oh and…
Steve Finley ~ career .271/.332/.442 (104 OPS+)
Ryan Church ~ career .271/.348/.462 (113 OPS+)
Shawn Green ~ career .283/.355/.494 (120 OPS+)
…Yeah, I see what ya mean on that one… ***rolls eyes***

OR, if you want to do by ages (to try to do the “peak” thing…
Finley at 28 ~ .266/.304/.385 (87 OPS+)
Finley at 26 ~ ..285/.331/.406 (114 OPS+)
Church at 28 ~ .272/.349/.464 (114 OPS+)
Green at 27 ~ .269/.367/.472 (116 OPS+)
Church at 26 ~ .287/.353/.466 (118 OPS+)
Finley at 27 ~ .292/.355/.407 (121 OPS+)
Church at 27 ~ .276/.366/.526 (131 OPS+)
Green at 26 ~ ..309/.384/.588 (143 OPS+)
Green at 28 ~ .297/.372/.598 (154 OPS+)

…Don’t know what to tell ya, I’m not seeing how what I said is questionable here… Finley vs Green are two different types with Church falling in between.

Me, “embarrassed” because you say questionable things with nothing that can really be pointed at to back them up, or completly without a real point? Nah, not in the least…