Rosenthal's Latest: Thames, Konerko, Ellis, Atkins

On Konerko...I love him, but I would like to see him be moved to make space for Fields. I want to see the Sox keep Crede--he is a stud defensively and not so bad with the bat. Fields will never pan out to be a good third baseman. Put his ass at First. Make the move, Kenny.

i dont know about the reds needing konerko. votto is going to be really good and hes really cheap. the reds need pitching, not offense anyways. everyone should check those stats out about basestealers against the padres in the rosenthal column. those numbers are amazing. im not sure if its the pitchers or the catcher(whos their catcher anyways, bowen?) but those stats are nuts. i will be remembering this when fantasy baseball starts.

I am a huge Whitesox fan and I think my fellow fans overhype Crede. He is good defensively but he sucks offensively. He has a career average of .259 and career OBP of .305. He is just as useless as Podsednik in my opinion. Posednik only brought speed to the table and Crede only brings defense.

Sure Crede had one great year, but so did Podsednik.

I'm open to trading Konerko, but it has to be the right trade.

Striker, I curious. What would you consider the right trade?

I imagine the Yanks and Mets are more interested in getting in on the Texeira sweepstakes next year then Konerko. While Giambi sucks at first he can match or beat Konerko's obp and match his power #'s, of course being healthy is a long-shot. I imagine they take that gamble of Ensberg/Giambi and go after Texeira in the off-season. With Delgado the Mets are fine and would also prefer to lock-in on Tex in the off-season rather then find a place to move or play Delgado. Doesn't make much sense to me for either club.

Would Swisher move over to 1B if they dealt Konerko? And wouldn't the LAA be a perfect fit? They have extra OFs and Ps.

P. E.Santana or J.Saunders
OF R.Willits
1B K.Morales

for

1B Konerko

Crisp & Lowrie to OAK for Street?

I'm not sure if Epstien would be willing to do that after the Gagne fiasco though.

“I believe that Konerko is still one of the better middle of the order right handed bats in the game, and I am sure KW does as well.”

The biggest concern probably comes in the fact that a loss of power moving away from Chicago will affect his output and value. Esp if he was to move to a location like Anaheim, which suppresses power… With the salary (12M each next 2YR), injury/ageing concerns and complete lack of versatility, well you can begin to see what could make him difficult to move…

If all it would take to keep Ellis is around $5 million/year, then there is no reason to trade him. He's amazing defensively, and his bat is average to slightly better than average.

There is no good replacement for him in the minors anyways even in a rebuilding year.

Rock,

the second part of your post (injury concerns) is why the first (salary) isnt really that true. Sure, 12M each over the next *3* years (typo above) isnt a ton of cash for a big bat, but if that big bat is a injury risk, egression risk, offers no flexibility and has benefited from a dream location for his hitting style then that 36M/3YR commitment is looking rather steep.

I mentioned it in the other Sox thread, if a deal goes down to Anaheim, I could see a very good fit in Mathews. Similar salary commitment (and Anaheim wont increase payroll, that needs to be kept in mind), fills both teams needs (Ana experienced Power threat, Sox experience CFer) and takes away from the others overstock (Anaheim with speedy-type OFers, ChiSox with slow-power 1B/DH types). I see it as a match made in heaven, just with some other prospect included to the Sox…

The thing with Konerko though is that he has a great reputation around baseball, and is considered a great clubhouse guy. He has all the makings of a guy who would get overvalued in a trade.

Some teams that should be interested would be the Mets, Yankees, Angels and maybe the Giants as a longshot.

I think that the Angels would definately be the best fit, as their glaring weakness is power, and that is essentially Konerko's calling card. Even though his power has declined steadily, he's still considered one of the better power hitters in baseball. Considering that the Angels already have two young first basemen in Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales, I presume that one of those guys would be in the deal. I could also see Gary Matthews Jr. going to Chicago, giving them a genuine center fielder. On top of that, considering that the White Sox would no longer be benefitting financially from this deal, they would probably want a decent young pitcher back. So my idea for the Angels:
Paul Konerko to the Angels in exchange for Gary Matthews Jr., Kendry Morales, and Ervin Santana. The Angels would then use Kotchman to add another starting pitcher, I presume.

The Yankees are another logical team that I could see having serious interest in Pauleee. Obviously the Yankees don't exactly need another big bopper at first, but then again it is the Yankees, and adding better players doesn't hurt. Currently the Yanks' options at first are Jason Giambi, Shelley Duncan, Jason Lane, Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit. Not terribly impressive.

A Konerko deal with the Yankees would likely take one of two forms: Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Konerko OR Alan Horne and Austin Jackson for Konerko.

Either way the White Sox get a long term center fielder and a good pitching prospect. I think those two assets would be the main things that the Sox would persue in a Konerko trade.

Yeah you're probably right that Kotchman would stay at first with Konerko at DH. Actually I'm shocked I didn't think of that its pretty simple. But I think that considering that Matthews Jr. kinda sucks, the White Sox should be able to net Morales and Santana. Morales really doesn't have a ton of trade value because he's been doing nothing for three years, even though he is still just 24.

I agree that the Angels are quite hesitant to deal their youngsters, but they would be dealing from good surplusses. If they deal Morales they'd still have Kotchman long term, and if they dealt Santana, they'd still have Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, Adenhart, Walden and other good youngish pitchers.

Stop with the speculating... Konerko isn't going anywhere as of now, and his 10-5 kicks in by May.

I think the Sox should go for a Fields package for Cain, personally. Something that could work out for both sides :) If I had to guess, I would try Fields, Broadway, Richar, and Russell or Oneli Perez or something.

I meant he hasn't done anything in the majors. I know his potential is pretty good and his performance in the minors has been solid. I'm just saying that he's still simply a good prospect.

And darkstar, the thing is that I hardly consider Gary Matthews a starter. Considering that the Angels have six capable outfielders (Guerrero, Hunter, Anderson, Matthews, Rivera, Willits), Matthews is extremely expendable. And when you consider that his primary value was his defense in center, which isn't even being utilized in LA, he becomes even less valuable to the Angels. If they dealt him, the outfield would continue without missing a beat. Considering that Konerko would be DHing anyways, that'd still be five guys for three spots. Moving Matthews would be nearly essential for this deal to happen.

If the difference between getting Santana and not getting Santana is Joe Crede, then I think thats a deal the White Sox would have to. If the deal would be Matthews, Morales and a mediocre prospect for Konerko, then I think that including Joe Crede in order to replace that mediocre prospect with Ervin Santana is definately worth it. From what I, and likely you, have been hearing, Crede isn't getting a lot of interest. In that deal you proposed, you would be essentially trading Crede and a mediocre prospect for Ervin Santana. Personally I would do that in a second. If the White Sox could net Matthews, Morales and Santana for Konerko and Crede, I think they might as well do it.

SS Cabrera
2B A. Ramirez
LF Swisher
DH Thome
RF Dye
3B Fields
1B Morales
C Pierzynski
CF Matthews Jr.

Rotation:
Buehrle, Vazquez, Danks, Contreras, Santana with Floyd as the spot starter which is where he belongs

Plus then you would have Carlos Quentin on the bench as well, offering the veterans an oppurtunity to rest. Even though I would argue that Quentin deserves a shot at a starting job, I think he could still get 400+ at bats off the bench. He can play both of the corner outfield positions, and Swisher could easily move to first base if necessary. This trade would just give the White Sox a more versatile team that wouldn't be forced to depend on the long ball, as well as another potential top of the rotation starter in Santana. I really believe Santana could still be special if he can pitch the way he does in LA everywhere else. That seems like a reasonable thing to hope for. I mean, the guy won 16 and posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP when he was 23, so he's capable of being successful.

Um guys... Matthews is worthless. Not only is he terrible on defense

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders2-07.gif

but his OBP last year as a whole was less then Jerry Owens' second half, and Owens is a very good center fielder, as you can see above. That alone might make them equal in value, but Owens averages about 50 stolen bases a year at an 81% clip. That's a great stolen base number and success rate combo, for those in the know. But wait, here's the kicker- Matthews is due $44 million over the next four seasons! That's right people. He's worse than Jerry Owens and he's due about $42-40 million more than him over the next four seasons. Matthews SUCKS, and he's not even close to being worth Konerko, even with the other guys.

Deception:
“Deception is the act of convincing another to believe information that is not true, or not the whole truth as in certain types of half-truths.
Deception involves concepts like propaganda, distraction and/or concealment. Fiction, while sometimes manipulative, is not a deception unless it is portrayed as the whole truth.”

See, what we have here is trying to make someone not look good to fit the feelings instead of trying to relate the facts as they stand. What we know is that Mathews played in the 2nd hardest park in the AL to hit in. What we know is that he hit for a normal BAbip in the first half where he posted a .285/.343/.452 line. What we also know is he experienced a flukishly low BAbip in the second half, (.227 BAbip to be exact where normal is .300 and low is .250 which is ‘weak’ like Juan Pierre range) and a .213/.302/.379 line was the product of said BAbip. If you translate that to a normal BAbip, you see a BA somewhere in the .271 range, an OBP something like .330 and its impossible to know how much the power was effected but you can imagine it probably would have been about .430-440-ish. If he had a normal BAbip in the second half, we then have a seasons total of something like .280/.340/.440 which again, was in a pitcher park.

Does he suck? Personally I don’t care for the guy, but no ~ I cant say that he “sucks” in any way shape or form. BUT, the average CF hit .272/.338/.420 and the Average LO hitter was .259/.277/.345 ~ he easily beats the LO hitter line and is right around the CF one in a pitchers park while experiencing a flukeishly low BAbip… When we adjust his BAbip, we actually see that he hit at an ability right about LgAvg for CFers but that still doesn’t take him out of the unfriendly hitting environment… Do you personally want him? Obviously not ~ but that doesn’t mean he isnt probably what the team should be looking at. I mean, whats the other options ~ play a LF/1B/DH type in CF or go with Jerry Owens who you hope does well based off a small 2nd half sample size?

What was proposed makes since is a unneeded and repetitive part like Konerko for the Sox is turned into something extremely fitting to their needs. And lets not kid ourselves here, the biggest knock on Mathews is something like “oh yeah, he did great in Tex but what happens when he isnt in as friendly of a park to hit in” ~ you know, like the park he would be going to! If he hits .313/.372/.495 in Chicago like he did in Texas the year before, don’t you kind of look brilliant pulling off such a move for an unneeded and instantly replaced part? (Swisher replaces Konerko perfectly so…) Oh, and then we have the teams FO’s tendencies to think about, which, well they seem to be trying to get vets or names for all the positions…

You know I’m not a ChiSox fan, you know I will be extremely open about what I see not working. Well, I see this as working, I see this as making them much better this and the next few years because a vet CF instead of a displaced slow slugger out there is kind of extreme. Just don’t be surprised if something along those lines is talked about, or even ends up happening, it fits quite well…

…errr, I gave a typo up there that I noticed and wanted to correct because it too is “deceiving” :) hehehe…

so Stat correction:
the ML Avg LO hit .277/.345/.415.

Not sure what happened when I typed it up the first time, but the sentence it was given in was still correct and it doesn’t change the point…

“His LD rate went from 16% in July, to 11% and a vomit inducing 4% in September. So it isn't hard to see why his BABIP plummeted”

…But that itself isnt a fluke to you? And even with a low LD rate, the BAbip isnt completely explained away… If anything, your reply is helping to explain how strange a halfseason he really had…

“I think I've made my point- Owens…”

…Fine, you go with your prospect who may or may not ever do anything while you watch Swisher in CF most of the time and your 1B continue to deteriorate before your eyes. Should make for a fun team to take advantage of in the AL-C!