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A Lot Riding On Gorzelanny's 2008 Performance

Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette concerns himself with one significant name missing from the Pirates' recent contract extensions: Tom Gorzelanny.

Kovacevic reveals that Gorzelanny's name came up when team officials discussed players who should get extensions, but because he won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2009 season, and because they wanted to see more of him, they decided to exclude him.

The feeling amongst management is that the lefty could become a premier pitcher, so they are looking for big growth this season.  Things with Gorzelanny have been less than stellar thus far, so he's not helping his case any.  His most recent start lasted only 2.1 innings, as he gave up six hits and four walks.  But looking beyond this year's small sample size, Gorzelanny's second half last year betrays the front office's confidence.  He walked 3.5 batters per nine, and had a solid but not-overwhelming 6.5 strikeouts per nine (for an underwhelming 1.9 command ratio).

The Pirates waiting to see more from Gorzelanny may not work in favor of his bank account.

Posted by Matt Birt


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The Pirates FO are all idiots. Gorzelanny is a huge injury risk this year due to the 40 inning increase from 2006-2007. It's called the "Year After Effect" which basically states that any pitcher who sees an inning increase of more than 30 innings from year to year is at risk for an injury and/or reduced performance the next season.

Tom Gorzelanny, Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Guthrie, Ian Kennedy, Chad Gaudin, Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jiminez are at risk for the injury this year. Carmona walked eight batters in his last start and his increase was over 50 innings including the post-season. People don't pay enough attention to this.

Pitchers at risk last year were Adam Loewen, Anibal Sanchez, Jered Weaver, Gustavo Chacin, and Francisco Liriano. Only Weaver escaped a serious injury, but he was on the DL for a short time and his performance suffered. The only one to defy this logic was Justin Verlander.

We'll see how stupid or smart the Yankees are this year. If Kennedy doesn't get injured this year, he cannot pitch 200 innings. Hughes' inning limit should be 176 and Chamberlain 149. My guess is that the Yankees wouldn't hesitate to destroy their young arms just to get into the post-season and go out in the first round. Just that they didn't pull the trigger on the Santana deal seems to indicate that they plan on getting a lot of innings out of these guys. Could be the destruction of the Yankees if they play their cards wrong. We know they can buy championships, now let's see if they remember how to properly develop one.

If Gorzelanny is a huge injury risk, and the Pirates have decided to wait before giving him big money, what exactly is it that makes them idiots in this case?

Just that they pushed him so hard in the second half last year even though he was showing signs of being worn down and fatigued. The Pirates weren't going anywhere, there was no need to push him over 200 innings. If they were smart, they would have shut him down early like the Giants did with Lincecum.

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