Free Agent Stock Watch: Ben Sheets

Mariners for 3/65.

The mariners rotation is already full, and they will be looking to lock up king felix. I hope he returns to the crew for a bit of a hometown discount hoping he wants to win a series with them, but if not then mets or yankees backup C.C plan.

washburns an all right option, especially for a number 3 starter, plus you cant have all power pitchers, too risky

I think the typical large market teams will be in it, but I could see him ending up with the Tigers or White Sox, and two sleepers could be the Royals and the Rays.

We started having this discussion about Sheets and the Mets the other day. I posted my thoughts on the topic(Resign Perez, or sign Sheets?) over there, but it is more relevant here. Here is how I look at it.

You have 2 incredibly talented pitchers here. Both with ace type stuff and potential but both with issues. Sheets has had more success at the ML level since he has come up, but has been plagued by injuries for the last 3 years pretty much non-stop.

Perez on the other hand had big time success as a 20 or 21 year old on an awful team, and then after having his motion and arsenal tweaked with a little bit started to sturggle big time and eventually lost his job and went to the minors. He re-emerged at the end of 2006 and was pretty solid, though also was shelled a few times in a small sample size of starts. Pitched 2 strong games against the Cards in the NLCS.

Came back in 2007 and had some bad moments, but overall he has a really solid year. Defintely showed that he still has top of the rotation ability and the stuff isnt gone.

So here is the scenario. Assuming that Perez puts up another solid season (190 IP, 3.50 era/ 1.30 whip and 185 K's),and to be fair, all of this is assuming that Perez posts another solid season like last year. If Perez gets hurt and misses significant time, then this is all moot. Lets say Sheets makes 28 starts and goes 175 IP at 3.30/1.15.

So if I am trying to choose bwteen those 2, I am looking at these thing.

Sheets- Great stuff, definite ace when out there. Probably cost an extra 3-4 mil over Perez annualy. Very injury prone, hasnt thrown 200 innings in 4 years, and will be signed into his mid-late 30's.

Perez- Also great stuff, not as good at utilizing it as Sheets. Known to be wild. Will sign for a little bit less money then Sheets, and save you your draft pick. Will make more starts then Sheets will, and throw more innings. Has pitched in big games in NY and worked well with their pitching coach. " Can he handle NY?" Is not a question that you have to wonder with Perez. He is 27 and will be signed through his prime years and into his early 30's.

All in all, I wouldnt be happy at all if the Mets opted for Sheets over Perez. If they have a big time draft and feel like they have pitching help on the way in the next 2 to 3 years and would rather opt for the cheaper and safer solution of Lowe in a 2 or 3 year deal, I couldnt complain, but would still prefer them to just re-sign Perez. Sabathia is out of the question in my eyes.

Sleeper pick: Rangers. Desperate for pitching and not afraid to pay for it. Assuming that Millwood and Padilla keep some semblance of their hot starts and stay healthy, with Sheets as the ace next season, and McCarthy/Gabbard/Hurley/Harrison/etc. fighting it out for the final two spots, the Rangers could have something they haven't had in a long time: a rotation that can be respected.

I see the Dodgers giving him a 4/$70M +incentives. Though I wouldn't be surprised if ATL and SEA jump in on Sheets.

I see him going to Detroit. If they continue to tank there will be tremendous pressure for them to perform now. They can't waste precious years with crummy pitching.

Just a quick look at their situation for 09 ...

-- Rodriguez comes off ($13m)
-- Renteria can come off (saves a net of $8m after buyout)
-- Rodgers ($8m)
-- T. Jones ($7m)
-- J. Jones ($5m)
Total coming off the books: $41m

Players going up substantially:

Mags +$3m
Miggy +$4m
Bonderman +$4m
Willis +$3m
Granderson +$2.5m

That totals out to be $17m or so. Throw in another $5m for arbitration and that leaves you with a net reduction of $19-20m.

With that money you need to replace your SS (or 1st Base), your closer (internal options?), Catcher, and Starting Pitcher.

If you go with Sheets at $15m/year that leaves you another $5m to spend on a 1B or SS and a catcher. Given that you don't need tremendous offensive production from the replacement players this is doable.

At the end of the day the Tigers could add Sheets without raising payroll at all. A Sheets/Verlander 1-2 would be awesome to go along with that offense.

They cant give Sheets too big of a contract because they gotta give Jason Kendall another big contract after next year. Hes hitting .360 (7th in the NL) I think its time to listen to what I said in February and have him hit 2nd now.

Hopefully all the haters can separate the sarcasm from the reality.

cubs 2/$22