Rosenthal's Latest: Furcal, Tejada

Astros cleaning house would be extremely difficult.

1st, Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee all have No-Trade Clauses. Berkman has already said he wouldn't waive his, and I'm not sure Lee would either, seeing that he took less money to play in Houston (he has a large ranch near-by). That leaves Oswalt, who has said he'd waive his no-trade clause.

Since the Astros don't have much pitching to begin with, trading Oswalt, while still hanging onto Lee and Berkman makes no sense.

BUT if somehow D-Mac and Co. decided to trade all 3, and all 3 were willing, THEN you could think about trading Tejada as well. But they better get a SS prospect in one of those trades because there's not much in their system to plug in.

But because those 3 do have NTC, then the team is probably better off "retooling" by packaging some of their decent/expendable starters and surplus of minor league outfielders for something.

The reduced trade value due to the age discrepancy is in my opinion been overblown. If Tejada's sitting with 30 Hr's and a .300 average at the trade deadline the prospective suiters for his services will have to pony up just as much for a 33 y.o. Tejada as a 31 y.o. Tejada. Production will be the deciding factor as always.

Players will always scoff at waiving their no trade clause. It's a basic negotiation tactic.

Whether it's an option to be picked up or some other spiff (tearing up the existing contract and writing a new one) players can almost always be motivated to leave. There are hundreds of examples of players waiving their NTC and only a handful (that I can think of) where they absolutely wouldn't.

The Astros of a few years ago were perennial playoff contenders. The Astros today are just awful with no prospect of improvement in the next few years. I'd be shocked if you couldn't move most, if not all, of the big ticket guys. Sure they love where they grew up - however, playing for a winning team does count for something. I can't believe that Berkman would stay if they traded away Lee, Oswalt, and Tejada. Does Berkman really want to play for a 65 win team?

I could see them trading Tejada at the trade deadline, there are some other players that could be moved as well. I just don't see them trading Roy or Berkman. McLane loves Roy. Problem for them is not drafting well, and McLane not going over signing slot value.

I've been thinking this for a while and I still believe it: The Astros won't contend within the next 3-5 years unless they commit to rebuilding this year. Oswalt has shown clear signs of decline, and the rest of the rotation is in shambles. They have ZERO young pitching outside of Paulino, and have continued to struggle in the draft for years. Their top position players are all getting up there in age, outside of Pence, and soon even this pretty vaunted offense won't be that good.

If the Astros can get a chance to move Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Valverde, Wigginton, Matsui and any other veterans of value, then I think they have to. This team needs to get built around Pence and Towles, and they need to build up their farm system.

The Cubs appear to be set up to be a pretty good team for the near future, and the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals are all good and improving. The Astros are a team in decline, and they are already worse than teams on the up and up like Milwaukee.

If McLane is incompetant enough to insist on trying to contend when they simply don't have the talent and assets to, then someone oughta write him an angry letter. This guy has gotta stop thinking its 2005 and realize this team is very, very far away from the ones that included Clemens, Pettitte, Bagwell and Biggio.

But would you bank your future on those kind of prospects? You see the elite-est of the elite prospect fall flat on their faces, but you have genuine faith in decent but nothing special prospects like Norris, James and Douglass. Yeah one or two of those guys will probably become a decent/good 4-5 starter, but realistically this team needs to revamp its minor league system. All of those veterans I listed above could help them net some quality pitching prospects as well as some good yuong position players to build with Pence, Bourn and Towles.

As this organization is currently set up, I just don't see how they could possibly win more than 85 games within any season in the next five years.

You simply have to admit that the Astros have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, either 29th or 30th, depending on how you feel about the White Sox's farm system. The majority of the Astros' MLB roster is not young guys either, so I just don't see how this farm system is figuring their future out. Unless they have an incredible draft and somehow manage to get hot by July, then I think this team needs to rebuild. They have enough quality veteran stars that they could rebuild their farm system pretty quickly and ascend to the top within a couple years. Otherwise I think that you have to be satisfied with mediocrity as an Astros fan.

I understand that once they make those guys available that doesn't mean teams are gonna be lining up to offer top prospects. I'm primarily talking about the direction that the team is going in. The philosphy of the front office. Right now that is to try and win today while draining the farm system almost to nil.

Maybe they move one or two of these guys in July, and then wait til the offseason to see what their value is at that point. I'm sure that once some of these guys see that they're not gonna have a serious chance to win then they'll waive their NTC to go to a contender.

I just really feel that this team doesn't stand a shot of contending as currently built, and simply needs to tear it down and try to rebuild around pitching. Now the initiation of that rebuilding process is what needs to happen soon, although maybe not all of those veterans get moved immediately. This team just needs to get younger and have some more flexibility with their future, because they are backing themselves into a corner where all of their assets are getting older and soon they'll start losing their value.

dang, it cut off the rest of my post. but to summarize what i said, it's still only april. there's still a lot of season to be played, and maybe its just that the team hasn't quite gelled yet. they did have a big turnover from last year. i don't think any firesale in houston will take place until the offseason at the earliest

The Dodgers won't trade Hu - he will be replacing Kent at 2b next year.

Thanks for the info on the "jock tax". Interesting use of a long arm statute. Still means that Lee is paying state income taxes on a pro-rata share of his income, and it isn't as if Texas is the only state without state personal income tax anyway.

As for kab21's comment about Hu, I like that idea. Hu has shown that he is more than just a glove and can actually hit with enough power to keep pitchers honest about grooving him a fastball. He is also athletic enough to switch positions and allow Furcal to stay. The interesting thing is going to be third. Nomar probably will retire or take a pay cut to remain close to home with the Dodgers and be the utility guy he was supposed to be when the season started. Keep DeWitt, who has proved he can handle MLB pitching and trade LaRoche, if you can still get value for him.