Royals Considerations For No. 3 Pick

I know this is about the Royals, but I still wanted to point out that the Bucs have been linked to Matusz for quite sometime now. It's rumored that his advisers have already told Pitsburgh management that he would sign for slot unlike most of the top guys and we all know that the Bucs aren't going to go over slot for anyone.

Explain.

The Royals have went over slot to get their first round pick signed the last three years. If they want a guy, they will take him.

The top 4-5 picks in this year's draft are all very strong picks. In other year's those guys could be #1s.

Crow or Matusz could each go #2 depending on what the team picking prioritizes. I've seen mock drafts and mailbags that supposes that the left out team would have to settle with Alvarez. That's what I call "settling". Sign me up.

We're entering into some very limbo/transitional years today in baseball economics. We're seeing arb years for players still under control reach record setting prices, which means, small market teams are thinking about dealing players longterm deals or trade waaay before they even hit free agency. All that does is place even more importance on things like the draft.

Basemonkey on your draft you have Billy Beane selecting Christian Friedriech, snd I must ask what on gods green earth are you smoking? With all the deals Beans pulled off in the offseason, the last thing he needs is more starting pitching, and left-handed!?!!? Gio Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Brett Anderson? You're high!

Here is my newly updated draft with some corrections people have pointed out in my previous mocks:

1) Isaac Galloway OF - Rays
2) Brian Matusz LHP - Pirates
3) Aaron Crow RHP - Royals
4) Justin Smoak 1B - Orioles
5) Pedro Alverez 3B - Giants
6) Tim Beckham SS/2B - Marlins
7) Jacob Thompson RHP - Reds
8) Aaron Hicks OF - White Sox
9) Tyson Ross RHP - Nationals
10) Brett Devall LHP - Astros
11) Eric Hosmer 1B - Rangers
12) Brandon Crawford SS - A's
13) Gerrit Cole RHP - Cardinals
14) Jemile Weeks 2B - Twins
15) Harold Martinez SS - Dodgers
16) Kyle Skipworth C - Brewers
17) Kyle Long LHP/1B - Jays
18) Yonder Alonso 1B - Mets
19) Gordan Beckham SS - Cubs
20) Cody Satterwire RHP - Mariners
21) Joshua Field RHP - Tigers
22) Jordan Danks OF - Mets
23) Brett Wallace 1B - Padres
24) Luke Burnett RHP - Philies
25) Daniel Webb RHP - Rockies
26) Quinton Miller RHP - D-Backs
27) Walker Kelly LHP - Twins
28) Hunter Cervenka RHP - Yankees
29) Buster Posey C - Indians
30) Ethan Martin 3B - Red Sox

Yeah a little more than a few changes, I know. But it's got the same set-up as my prievious two. But i'll give some explainations:

Now I know most people dont think there's a chance in hell for Alverez to slip past the top three to the Giants at #5. But the Rays are so stacked they're going to go with a High-Risk, High-Reward type of guy, like Galloway. The Pirates are set with some postions but desperatley need impact arms, like Matusz. The Royals need to restock the system with young talent after graduating Gordan, Butler and Hochevar to the big team last year, perfect fit for Crow. The O's are pretty set at everywhere but 1B and are pretty set in the outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Scott and the firesale they had, brought them Troy Patton, plus they took Billy Rowell in 06 he's the future, Smoak can be apart of that future soon. Then the Giants take the best pure player in the draft, Alvarez, because their orgazational needs are evrything but pitching.

Tim Beckham from my recent hearings has been struggling with his patience a little thus far into the season, plus he's signed to USC so a team might want to take a more sure thing. Thus he falls to the Marlins

I like Gordan Beckham and if Beandon Crawford continues to struggle as he has thus far, I bet Billy Beane will take Beckham over Crawford. But if Crawford does come out of his slump(and he appears to be doing so, 8-19 in his last 21 plate appearences) Beane will likely take him. Then Beckham will slide down to the Cubs at 19 or the Dodgers at 15. I said the Cubs take Beckham and the dodgers take Harold Martinez, since Martinez profiles a little bit better potential. And Beckham could be limited due to his range issues.

The Mets will probably take either Lance Lynn, Daniel Webb, or my pick, Jordan Danks. Any of those 3 guys could help thicken the otherwise barren mets farm system. Danks though could get to the Majors soon.

The Phils will grab Luke Burnett to help in their pitcher less farm system.

And Ethan Martin will either go to the Yankees or the Red Sox. Even though he is one of the top athletes in the draft, his dual sport ability will need the Sox or the Yanks pockets to change his mind.

Ari, that's not my mock draft

Ari,

I'd hesitate next time you accuse someone ELSE of smoking somethin'. Anyone who thinks Alvarez AND Beckham drop to the five and six holes respectively, is downright strung out. Tampa Bay, by all accounts, seems very big on Beckham. Sure, they've got Brignac, but he's no sure thing and Beckham will take time to develop. Furthermore, they're loaded with prospects EVERYWHERE. SS is as good a place- better in fact- as any to stockpile.

At 2, Pittsburgh is going to go with either Alvarez or Matusz. As an O's fan, I'm hoping that they go with the comparative bargain in Matusz and think it's there's a pretty realistic chance. It's not as splashy a selection as Alvarez, but he's also not a ridiculous stretch and obvious dollar-stretcher like Moskos. The brass can convincingly state that they went after their top target and reel off some spin about how winning clubs are built on pitching and the dearth of legit frontline southpaws. ...Or they can roll the dice, select Alvarez, and pay him more than they're paying their entire lineup (OK, a bit of an exaggeration, but he ain't comin' cheap).

I think KC, in this scenario, would almost certainly take Crow. It's not only logical; it's perfect... A hometown kid with ace-caliber stuff who they can move quickly into what stands to be a pretty (I can't believe I'm saying this) awesome Royals rotation. Think about it: Greinke, Crow, Hochevar, Cortes, and Bannister. Not to mention Meche... Soria to close out games. Damn. Now add a lineup that includes Gordon, Butler, and Moustakos (or however it's spelled)... That's the beginning of something special. Again, as an O's fan, I'd like to think Crow would be available, especially if Alvarez is gone, but it just doesn't seem remotely possible.

Fortunately, in my scenario, Alvarez IS available to Baltimore if the Bucs go with Matusz. This is Alvarez's basement (I'm talking to you, Ari). I GUARANTEE that if Alvarez is there, Jordan takes him. And I DO think there's a fair chance of it happening, particularly with his reportedly stratospheric price tag. McPhail will pony up for a Boras client for a second straight year and hope that, along with a potential superstar at one of their corners (with Rowell at the other; Snyder is all hype IMO), the move gets them in Scott's good graces when Tex hits the market. Hometown boy + big $$$ + a few choice words from a grateful agent= Baltimore's biggest free agent signing since at least Tejada?! It's certainly worth a shot; even IF he eventually spurns Baltimore for the Bronx. Regardless, I think Alvarez goes here. [If Pedro's gone, my gut says Matusz; my heart says Hosmer- my favorite HS bat- or possibly Smoak (re-teaming w/ HS pal, Wieters).

The Giants, at 5, have a dilemma. The best bats available seem to be 1B- the lone position where they seem set, thanks to teenage phenom Angel Villalona. Unless they decide they can move Smoak or Hosmer to LF, I like Ozzie's pick here (Gordan Beckham) but based on concerns regarding Beckham's ability to stick at short and the Giants' having selected a nice 2B prospect last year in Nick Noonan, plus Charlie Culberson in the supplemental first, I'm not entirely sold. Buster Posey's another strong possibility who could be excluded based on last year's selection of Jackson Williams in the supplemental first. My best guess is Posey, as catchers often move out from behind the plate- something that could easily happen with Williams- and Posey, being a college pick and fairly advanced, seems likely to stick. I wouldn't rule out pitching either, with Tanner Scheppers, Christian Friedrich, and Tim Melville the leading candidates.

The rest of my first round:
1. TB- Tim Beckham (SS)
2. PIT- Brian Matusz (LHP)
3. KC- Aaron Crow (RHP)
4. BAL- Pedro Alvarez (3B)
5. SF- Buster Posey (C)
6. FLA- Kyle Skipworth (C)
Hearing a lot of noise about the Marlins and Skipworth.
7. CIN- Tanner Scheppers (RHP)
Reds have a great young foundation for the rotation, but little depth in the system.
8. CHI(AL)- Justin Smoak (1B)
Love their college guys; seems like a good fit.
9. WAS- Gordon Beckham (SS)
Can't you see a left side of Zimmermann and Beckham. Say it; it rolls off the tongue.
10. HOU- Yonder Alonso (1B)
Going with the consensus here; think he could be the quick breakout a la Braun or La Porta. Smoak is the other possibility.
11. TEX- Eric Hosmer (1B)
Like a HS version of the Teixeira pick!
12. OAK- Christian Friedrich (LHP)
If G. Beckham or Alonso slip, Beane will happily grab 'em here. Ditto Scheppers; otherwise, it won't matter how many lefties they've got, they're going with Friedrich.
13. STL- Tim Melville (RHP)
Good fit; Shooter Hunt is another possibility if they choose to go the college route.
14. MIN- Brett Wallace (1B/3B)
A bit of a reach, but then, that never stopped Minnesota in the past; Twins need power bats; looks even better if Wallace can stick at third.
15. LAD- Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Love their high upside, high school power arms.
16. MIL- Shooter Hunt (RHP)
Make a habit out of finding the less expensive guys inexplicably dropping. Hunt fits mold. Paramore could fit here as well.
17. TOR- Brett DeVall (LHP)
Just sounds like a Toronto pick.
18. NYM- Aaron Hicks (RHP/OF)
Good athlete to add in effort to rebuild farm.
19. CHI- Brandon Crawford (SS)
If they believe he'll stick at SS, Crawford fits nicely with Vitters as future tandem on left side of INF
20. SEA- Brett Hunter (RHP)
West Coast RH'er looks like good here
21. DET- Josh Fields (RHP)
Gotta agree with the boys above; The Tigs are fairly desperate and, looking to win now, will likely move Fields quickly. Isaac Galloway is another intriguing option here, as Detroit loves those high ceiling youngsters and Galloway seems a little reminiscent of Maybin.
22. NYM- Dennis Raben (OF)
Back trouble drops him, but Mets scoop him up here as future RF (with F. Martinez in left or center).
23. SD- Isaac Galloway (OF)
Not entirely sold that the Pads will go with a HS OF'er, but he fits nicely and his upside and value are tremendous here. Signability could be issue.
24. PHI- Ryan Perry (RHP)
Philly takes another electric arm that's dropped. I could also see Ike Davis here.
25. COL- Jacob Thompson (RHP)
College RH'er could move quickly due to good control. Good fit for team looking to win now. Zach Putnam is another possibility due to sinking action on pitches.
26. ARI- Jemile Weeks (2B)
Could go with another college pitcher, but Weeks has terrific upside and value at pick and provides a possible future heir to Orlando Hudson who can get there quickly- a must for a team that's ready to compete now.
27. MIN- Tyson Ross (RHP)
Minnesota has a fair number of young arms, but because it is the draft's greatest strength and Ross has plenty of upside, despite questions, I can see them taking him here.
28. NYY- Harold Martinez (3B)
Yanks can compensate money-wise for drop and ensure Martinez doesn't go the college route, while picking up a tantalizing talent. Ethan Martin is another possibility, though NY's loaded on pitchers and many see Martin in that role rather than 3B now.
29. CLE- Alex Meyer (RHP)
Keeping the kid close to home, Indians go after high ceiling HS hurler. Think Adam Miller, pre-injuries.
30. BOS- Ethan Martin (RHP/3B)
Martin gets the nod- slightly- over Sonny Gray due to versatility and size. Huge upside will come at a price, but Boston's never shied away from a costly investment.

All that and there's still a ton of top talents left over: Tim Murphy, Kyle Lobstein, Jarret Martin, Scott Green, Luke Burnett, Colby Shreve, Ike Davis, Lance Lynn, Casey Kelly, Conor Gillaspie, and Robbie Grossman are just a few of the guys who could move into the first. It's no wonder we always hear about guys with first round talent dropping to later rounds. Anyway, that's my take.

Not a big fan of Crack or Meth...

As for the O's... If Alvarez is there, I can't see them passing on him. Rowell is an exciting young bat, but he's no sure thing and, perhaps more importantly, he's likely to move over to first due to his size and defense. It really doesn't matter which one they move, though, ONE of the two would likely move across the diamond to make up the club's future corner infield. As for Snyder...like I said, I'm not a believer. If he succeeds, it'll be a bonus; a 'problem' that I'm sure the O's would gladly endure. Beside which, it's the A.L.; we're going to need a DH.

With regard to Beane and your A's (congrats, BTW- I've been raving about his work this offseason; tremendous haul), I said that if Gordon Gecko or Yonder Out There fall, Billy'll be all over them like stink on s$@#. I don't see it, though. I hadn't considered Crawford; that could work, I suppose. Brett Wallace, Ike Davis, or one of the RH'ers (seeing as that seems to be this draft's greatest strength) are long-shot possibilities. You know the team better than I do, so I'll defer on this one, but I think you're being a bit cavalier about your LH'ers. Sure, there's a lot to like with Brett Anderson (a favorite of mine), Gio, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and Dan Meyer, but to simply assume that all or even a majority of these cats pan out is...well...cavalier. And since when was having TOO MUCH LH starting pitching a BAD thing? There's tremendous value there as well as insurance if things don't proceed as planned. Easy though it may be to project a future rotation of Cahill, Anderson, De los Santos, Gonzalez, and Simmons, I don't think I'd bet the farm on it. Do you think having Cahill, De Los Santos, Rodriguez, Simmons, and Bailey precludes Beane from choosing a righty? I mean, you're probably right; he'll likely take a position player. But if all of the big college bats are off the board, will Beane still go with a bat? I'm asking. Crawford does sound right, so if you're going to update your mock, I'd slot him in for your A's. The way Beckham's playing (and the likelihood that he'd come cheaper than a lot of the other guys), I'd be SHOCKED if he dropped to 12. Funny, because pre-season, that would've been a major reach. How quickly things change. By the time June rolls around, who knows what could happen? Good luck, though; I've always liked Beane and the A's...and heroin, coke, and high quality marijuana. Like I said, though, I'll pass on the crack and meth. I like my sleep...