Beckham A Top Two Lock?

This site has to do with trade rumors- yes- but it's a bit more expansive than that. Even if you took the most strict interpretation, however, the draft would be applicable. Consider, the Orioles/Mariners deal over the off-season. Erik Bedard for George Sherrill, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio. I'm guessing you thought the M's easily got the better of that deal, huh? After all, Bedard's a star and the rest are all just minor leaguers, save for a LOOGY named Sherrill few knew much about.

Thing is, if you knew about prospects, you'd know that Jones is considered a future star and Tillman is among the top pitching prospects in the game. The point is, trades OFTEN include prospects and those prospects gotta come from somewhere. There's pretty much just 1)international signings and 2)the draft.

Back to the Bedard deal, Adam Jones is a former supplemental first rounder; Tillman was a second rounder and Butler a third- both in 2006. Bedard himself was a sixth round pick by the O's back in '99.

Since the bulk of the players in these MLB Trade Rumors first came to their respective teams via the draft, I think it's safe to say that the subject is HIGHLY relevant...not just to baseball, but to this site IN PARTICULAR.

nice analysis

That was weird. I was responding to another post with my own, above. Without the original, my post seems...a bit out of context. Sorry.

Anyway, back to the original post...to answer Tim's question...NO.

OK, maybe I can't say it that declaratively, but all along I've been saying that Alvarez is NOT going to Pittsburgh. I think it's hysterical how little hints are popping up now that seem to support my position. Think about it...

After the Moskos/Wieters debacle last year, the Bucs made a big front office move and started hyping up their '08 draft and the idea of rebuilding. Don't get me wrong, I think they're somewhat earnest, but they painted themselves into a very uncomfortable corner... Suddenly their first rounder was not just an important pick in terms of talent, but also with regard to its public relations implications. They couldn't be seen as pinching even a penny.

Still, as the draft developed, it began to look like Pedro Alvarez- who originally seemed like a lock for No. 1 overall- might drop to them...and that he might be looking for a historic deal.

For all the club's posturing, they're still a small market team.

It wasn't a coincidence that the front office (for all their talk) was now headed up by the guy who once 'enforced' the slotting system. The Bucs WERE looking to change, but not this FAST or EXTREME.

Scott Boras knows just HOW critical this pick is for Pittsburgh and will absolutely hold Alvarez hostage for as massive a deal as he can wring from the Bucs front office. Bad as it might be for a KC or Baltimore, it'll be outright criminal if Pittsburgh takes him...for no other reason than because he CAN; and because it will make himself and his client a ton of money.

In any other year, this wouldn't be an issue...Pittsburgh would grab one of the draft's other legit top talents- one fitting their unique needs and rebuilding timetable- and move on.

But, as noted, the Bucs painted themselves into a corner. Nothing but the best will suffice, regardless of the consequences. And since Alvarez was considered to be the best- far and away- they would HAVE TO pick him. Unless...

Unless someone came along to challenge that notion. In Beckham, the Pirates have that face saving alternative. Not only is he cheaper, he's a much better fit- playing a premium position...and playing it well...owning 5 potentially plus tools, and, by being a prep standout, rather than a polished college player, he'll take a bit more time to develop. In other words, his upside is as great or greater than Alvarez's and the Pirates can develop him at a pace befitting a lengthy rebuilding effort.

Alvarez will probably be in the majors- with his service clock running- by the end of 2009 or opening day 2010. That would leave the Bucs scrambling to find talent to surround him with before he decides to bolt via free agency. Baseball being a team sport, he'd likely get pitched around- a star amidst swine; ultimately having little effect on the club's overall prospects.

Beckham, on the other hand, can be brought up through the minors alongside talented young players from subsequent drafts; the cornerstone of a larger plan. Like Arizona and Tampa now, the Pirates can shoot for a date down the road, when all of their 'fruit' ripens simultaneously and they can once again compete as a legitimate contender.

As much as the fit plays into the pick, however, it's because of money that Beckham will go ahead of Alvarez. Beckham would, above all else, cost less, while, again, saving face. The Pirates can contend that they went with the top talent on the board and still save coin. THIS, above all else, is why Beckham won't slip past them and why Jimmy Beckham is right to feel so confident. It's why the Pirates held their recent draft meeting in Georgia and why they've been dropping hints about being torn between the two players.

The Pirates COULD still end up with Alvarez...if Beckham goes No. 1 to Tampa, but so long as the pick is Posey, TBecks- NOT Alvarez- is 2.

Either way, Jimmy and Timmy are laughing their way to the bank.

Not even close, futureprospect3. I've seen 'em much longer. Hell, I've written 'em longer (I do tend to get a bit...loquacious). But if you don't want to read my post, that's cool...don't. Just don't be a d-bag about it.

The difference is that the odds of finding a good player with the first pick of the draft is over 100 times easier (and I would guess over 1000 times more likelier) with the first pick of the draft than it is with the 24th pick in the 26th round.

My research showed that the first pick, over the period 1986 to 1998, became a good player about 55% of the time, so even with the first pick, teams are no luckier than flipping a coin as to whether a player is a good player, capable of starting and performing well.

By around the end of the 3rd round, it has already fallen to around 1%.

So rumors of who gets selected with the first 10 or so picks of the first round is very pertinent because while the odds are stacked against those drafting, if you don't play the game, you will surely lose ultimately.

And if a team selects a great 1B but already has a good 1B, then that player could be in play during the trading deadline for teams looking to rebuild beyond this season.

About Beckham, I don't know this for certain, but to me, most teams won't talk with the prospect so that they don't tip off to other teams of their interest, other than generic "yeah, he's a top prospect".

However, when you have one of the top two picks, there's a pretty good chance that your contact really won't affect the other drafters to do otherwise, particularly when there is no clear #1 pick and you contact all the guys you might draft so that you don't give out a clue beyond those guys.

Plus, when you pick that high, you have a pretty good idea who you can pick and thus, if you are cheap about how you operate, you kick the tires and see what the prospect's advisors are thinking of in terms of bonus money.

And, since it is such an important pick, you meet with them to get to know the player more and help you decide which one is more likely to make it to the majors.

Giants - what is your definition of a good player? I'm not being a smartass, just wondering what sort of guidelines you have, since one person's "good" might be another person's "mediocre".

Do you have breakdowns for other spots in the draft?

And by the way, Ctownboy posted a monstrous post, much longer then this one, just a day or two ago. That was probably the biggest post I have seen here. And I read that one too, because why the hell else would I be here if I didnt want to read what people thought.

I don't think he's a lock. But a very good shot. But no where near certain. I think he'll go to the Royals or the O's.

BTW kosmo, A couple of smart pick-ups for the Giants would be, signing the new king felix, Michel Inoa. He's a phenom, tag him with Villalona in 4-5 years the Giants might be good again. And then those Japenese guys (sorry forgot their names) Could come in and help mentor the young guys.

P.S. I'm guessing that futureprospect3 is a new guy, because I've never seen any of his posts. But seriously you should check out Baseball"guru". He doesn't just make long posts, but he makes like 5 or 6 of them in a row. We call him "guru" because he is actually an idiot who has no idea what he's talking about. Don't listen to him.