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Carroll's Latest: Burnett, Twins, Cardinals

Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll has plenty of rumors in his latest post.

  • Pat Gillick "doesn't seem that interested" in going back to work for the Mariners.
  • One team asked the Blue Jays to include players to be named later on both sides of an A.J. Burnett deal, to serve as a balance for the pitcher's uncertain tricky contract. The Jays passed on that idea.  By the way, the Toronto Star's Richard Griffin thinks the Jays will keep Burnett unless offered a player who can improve the '08 team.
  • Carroll wonders whether the Pirates would consider trading Ian Snell.  Snell is signed through 2010 with club options for '11 and '12.
  • Beyond Adrian Beltre, the Twins "have taken a hard look" at Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Casey Blake.
  • The Cards are searching the Triple A ranks for the next Ryan Ludwick.  Maybe they were one of the teams inquiring on Nelson Cruz?


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searching through the triple a ranks? gosh darnit. i want to hear big names and big deals. reyes/duncan/anderson/mather/boggs these guys should all be available. todd and garcia maybe for the right price. that should get us something. we need damaso marte like something bad. we have no lefty relievers worth a in the minors so who is supposed to get lefties out?

I would honestly hope that joelcards is right and that those names are being made available by the cardinals. Hopefully they do a few small things, first they should call up Colby Rasmus. I think it appears as if that is the best throw things at the wall and wait till something sticks move. I think Domaso Marte could and should be had by the cards for Reyes/?.

The Blue Jays should hold unto AJ because the division is passing them by as it is, and next year will be NO different. I would guess that unless they can do better on the FA market they might not consider moving him.

The twins to put it lightly are not going to keep up this pace. I do not think that the Twins could expect one bat to fix all their problems. The twins rotation has been solid at best. I will give the Twins their due though and say that they make doing decent with so much talent look like an achievement.

Damaso Marte = 2 draft picks in 2009 (probably). How is Anthony Reyes worth more than 2 draft picks? Maybe Reyes + Todd/Garcia/Anderson, but I would not do that if I were the Cards. If anything, the Cards should look to upgrade their middle infield. Izturis is a terrible hitter.

I've watched this team grow this year, and I will put it out there, I think the Twins will make the playoffs this year, and excel to say the least. We have several contributors, manny, Morneau, Mauer, Buscher, Casilla, and Delmon Young of late has come around.

I think this club will make a run at Chicago (7 more home games vs. CWS), acquire a hard hitting righty, and get a lefty flamethrower for the pen.

I've watched this team grow this year, and I will put it out there, I think the Twins will make the playoffs this year, and excel to say the least. We have several contributors, manny, Morneau, Mauer, Buscher, Casilla, and Delmon Young of late has come around.

I think this club will make a run at Chicago (7 more home games vs. CWS), acquire a hard hitting righty, and get a lefty flamethrower for the pen.

rasmus' situation is tricky. they want him to play everyday but with skip and ludwick where does he play? most people would say make skip the bench guy but hes earned the right to be a starter. even at that duncan needs to play as well. i think in the offseason the cards will be making a trade of an outfielder if not sooner. they have to.

my apologies for the double post.

LOL are you serious Manny? Marte is going nowhere if the only thing offered is Reyes, he has little to no trade value right now. Marte is one of the best LH relievers in the game, and he DOMINATES LH hitting. If we dont get blown away with an offer then we keep him, let him close, and get the 2 comp pics for him in the next draft. Some of you guys on here are just horrible with your thoughts on trades and what the value of players are worth.

Fuentes and Marte are the best 2 bullpen arms available... if Fuentes goes first it only makes Marte that much more valuable!

The Twins may not keep up at this pace but I don't see them just fading out. And at the same time, while I don't see them making a long playoff run, they could definitely compete for the rest of this year.

One bat can fix a lot of things and I wouldn't hesitate to say it could do so with guys like Mauer and Morneau surrounding it. A rotation that's "solid at best" is also nothing to scoff at. Who cares if they're not overwhelming if they consistently get the job done?

Oh, and not to mention they get Liriano back at some point this half. He's kinda good.

i dont think marte would be a type a free agent. and while he would have serious value to the cards he isnt doing pittsburgh much good and his salary next year is 6 million which isnt exactly a value(actually an option year). reyes and something else but garcia, todd, and anderson are the prime meat. reyes and boggs. reyes, boggs, parisi and the pirates throw in a sucky young starter.

and yes middle infield is terrible but i dont think theres anything available there. wilson would barely be an upgrade. it sounds good but whose got a shortstop they r willing to trade. barmes? maybe. eckstein? better hitter bad fielder. izturis cant hit at all but he is good defensively.

this post is on fire so i gotta keep talking. someone tell me what pittsburghs goal is. shouldnt they want to get all the young talent possible? do they really need a bullpen with 6 million dollar arms? if a team isnt gonig to be any good(say pittsburgh for example) then trade away everyone who is older and expensive. everyone. if u r going to suck u muight as well suck cheap and have some potential. wilson, bay, nady, marte, these guys dont have anywhere near the value to pittsburgh as they would to other teams. it just doesnt make any sense to keep these guys. is 4th place in the division really any better than 6th?

Burnett, Downs, and Eckstein for Duncan, Reyes, Anderson, and Kozma.

I'd hate to lose Downs, I'd say he's a top 3 Middle reliever in the game.

Joelcards,

Marte was Type A after last year, so he is definitely Type A after this year (assuming he stays healthy). The Pirates will definitely decline his option and offer him arbitration if he is not traded. At worst, they get back a great lefty reliever for market value (and go through the same song & dance at the 2009 trade deadline). At best, they get 2 very good draft picks. Either option is much better than what you are proposing.

Wilson would barely be an upgrade over Izturis? Izturis is hitting .236/.310/.301. His career line is .257/.297/.332. He is beyond atrocious. He is like Ryan Theriot without the AVG or OBP. He is like Khalil Greene without the power.

Jack Wilson offers comparable defense, and hit .273/.316/.370 in 2006, .296/.350/.440 in 2007, and .304/.348/.363 in 2008.

The Cards could expect at least +.030 OBP and +.050 SLG if they got Wilson, and that is being conservative. Wilson is no Hanley Ramirez, but he is a better hitter than people give him credit for, especially those who remember the guy he was in 2001-2003.

2001-2003 Jack Wilson would hit 5 HR, 20 2B, and 75 K, posting a .250/.300/.340 line.

2004-2008 Jack Wilson hits 10 HR, 30 2B, and 50 K, posting a .300/.350/.400 line.

Boy, Cardinals fans just continue to be absolutely delusional about the value of Anthony Reyes. He's got a 5.38 career big-league ERA and he turns 27 in October. Secret's out, guys ... he's a 4-A player.

Joel, you do realize that the difference between Izturis and Jack is about 50 base hits a season... that equals, more everything... he scores more runs, he gets more RBI, that is a HUGE difference in players...

Would Hank Blalock be a good fit for the Twins?

I know that everyone is down on Reyes but you know his whole situation reminds me of another promising young cardinal pitcher that could never stick in the majors Dan Haren. Everyone in St. Louis was convinced he couldn't hack it so we shipped him in one of the worst trades in franchise history and he becomes an All-Star. I'm with Joelcards and I think Reyes can still be a good ML pitcher just not in the STL.

Joel, why throw in more? I'm happy with a Duncan, Reyes, Kozma, and Anderson return. Keep in mind that Burnett and Eckstein bring you a minimum of 2 picks in return, though there's a good chance the Cards would lock up Burnett long term.

Haren is only a year older than Reyes and has been a very-good-to-elite pitcher for four years now.

Reyes has never shown that he can get Major League hitters out consistently and he's almost too old to be considered a prospect. I'm just saying that you shouldn't expect much of anything for him. Haren was a far, far more valuable prospect because he was younger and had demonstrated the ability to get big league hitters out in 2004 (if you take away his disastrous first start against the Cubs that year, his ERA was 2.76).

schnoah, obviously you ignored the /? next to Reyes name. Reyes does have some trade value as he was regarded well over the past few seasons despite some bumps in the road. People say Craig Hansen has trade value yet he has played like crap as well so come on now. Reyes and a package of one or two mid level prospects could very well get the trade done, depending on the package. Obviously its more likely that the Yankees will snag Marte anyway.

Haren only appeared in one game before the All-Star game in 2004, a 3.2-inning, 10-run debacle in June at Wrigley. Therefore, his post-All-Star split = his stats minus that one start. Dumb luck, really.

This sounds insane but, fire J.P Retardi (not insane) and sign Pat Gillick. I think this move would be really good and I hope Godfrey does this. It would be like 93 again, Gillick in the office and Gaston at the helm, I smell another World Series for the Jays with this duo.

I like Snell's upside

blalock makes no sense for the twins. he's always hurt, and he's a lefty. the twins need a righty. blake would be pointless, as he is no upgrade over a buscher/harris combo. atkins' asking price would be outrageous and the rockies will trade holliday before atkins.

but beltre makes a lot of sense because he could help them this year and next as the twins have no immediate plans for 3B. buscher is a liability in the field and harris is nothing to shout about. luke hughes is showing progress but he's not read. the mariners would love to get rid of beltre's salary for next year, and his demand doesn't seem too high, so the twins wouldn't need to give up top talent. the twins have a boatload of pitchers, so i think swarzak, manship, mulvey, and duensing could all be expendable.

"I like Snell's upside"

Good thing, because all he has is "upside." He sure hasn't shown any consistent ability to perform as a MLB starting pitcher.

Let me describe a typical Ian Snell start: First three innings, 2 hits, 6 K's, shows electric stuff.

Then in the 4th the ump calls a ball on a pitch Snell thinks is a strike.

Snell sulks, then starts throwing junkballs all over the place, walks people, then decides to try and blow nothing but fastballs by everybody and ends up getting tatooed when they catch on.

He's a headcase like Zambrano, just with less talent. He has a million dollar arm and ten cent brain.

If he had a good veteran catcher like Varitek or a good pitching coach, they might get something out of him. But I don't think the Pirates ever will. I doubt they'd look to trade him but if I were running the team, I'd definitly consider it.

"Someone tell me what pittsburghs goal is. shouldnt they want to get all the young talent possible?"

Yes they should. And they do.

Perhaps you're not reading what us Pittsburgh fans are trying to tell you. So for the billionth time let me explain:

The Pirates are definitely open to making trades. But only for QUALITY players. They aren't going to make a trade just to make one.

They aren't going to trade Bay for 5 mid-grade AA pitchers and hope and pray that one turns out to be the next Brandon Webb. That's how you build a LOSING ballclub.

What they are doing is sitting back and holding their chips and hoping somebody decides they NEED TO WIN this year and offers an Ian Kennedy or Colby Rasmus to them. That's how you build a WINNING ballclub.

You seem to think people are offering Pittsburgh blue chip super-duper prospects and we're turning them down or something. I am 99.9% sure that is not the case. When the good prospects are offered, you will see trades made. Okay?

Marte is expensive and someone will overpay for him before the trade deadline. As someone pointed out earlier, Fuentes and Marte are the two top bullpen guys on the block this year, so they will command a decent price. The Cardinals should be looking elsewhere.

I would suggest pursuing Bay and Grabow, not Marte. I know Bay would be hard to get, but he would be a great fit for the Cardinals. The Cardinals should trade Ludwick and either Duncan or Schumaker. Grabow isn't as good as Marte, but he's also cheaper and would adequately fill a bullpen role.

Burnett is about the last guy the Cardinals need. Another starter with an injury history? We would have the best DL rotation in baseball!

Ian Kennedy? No thanks. He's turned out to be the Anthony Reyes of the Yankees.

When I suggested trading Ludwick and either Duncan or Schumaker, I didn't necessarily mean for Bay, but that the Cardinals should unload those guys if they can get Bay.

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