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Olney's Latest: Sexson, Ibanez, Ortiz

Buster Olney's blog post is overloaded with rumors today. Here's a rundown:

  • Olney's Speculation: Will the Red Sox will express interest in Khalil Greene with Julio Lugo on the DL for 4-6 weeks? Olney also wonders if the Dodgers will seek Huston Street if Takashi Saito is seriously hurt.
  • Scout Speculation:  Huston Street and Matt Murton to the Rays for prospects? 
  • Bobby Kielty was granted release by the Red Sox.
  • Richie Sexson could decide where to go based on greatest offered playing time.  I'd say that's expected for a veteran starter.
  • Olney says that requests for Max Scherzer are keeping the Dbacks from making any moves, such as for Raul Ibanez.
  • David Ortiz is slated to return to the lineup on July 25th, which leaves the Red Sox less than a week to evaluate him and make a move if necessary.  Olney details some options:
    • Acquire a hitter during the waiver period after the deadline.  This would rule out comparable replacements such as Matt Holliday or Mark Teixeira.
    • Make a "preemptive strike" for Holliday or Teixeira costing them "at least one of their best prospects".
    • Target a "second or third tier bat" such as Ibanez or Xavier Nady.
    • Continue on with or without an effective Ortiz, hoping their offense is good enough.


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Comments

What exactly would it cost to land Street and Murton?

I would think that the Athletics would want a stud position player back, I mean they already are overloaded with stud pitching prospects.

Street and Murton for Reid Brignac, Chris Mason, Ryan Royster and a low level prospect?

Would Beane want a better pitcher involved like Davis, McGee or Hellickson? (Assuming David Price would be the most off-limits of any of them)

desmond jennings, but he's injured

if A's could get more mlb ready players from dodgers like laroche, dejesus, etc i'd prefer that.

"Olney also wonders if the Dodgers will seek Huston Street if Takashi Saito is seriously hurt."

I take it Olney hasn't heard of a guy the Dodgers have named Jonathan Broxton.

Buster Olney is a freaking knob. Who listens to this dipshit? Tell us again how the Cubs have no interest in Rich Harden, nitwit.

Rosenthal is very plugged in, but like every other loser at ESPN, Olney is just a waste-of-space Yankees/Red Sox mouthpiece. Can we from the other 28 teams in baseball just refuse to listen to these chumps?

I'd really like Fox to do a national sports network and provide some competition to the Eastern Sports Programming Network.

I think that the Athletics would prefer to add a SS of the future in Reid Brignac over a CF of the future in Desmond Jennings.

Brignac is near MLB-ready, he's currently up in Tampa right now and probably should be solid as soon as next season, and the Athletics really need a long term solution at shortstop.

They already have Carlos Gonzalez in the outfield, as well as other promising young guys like Sweeney, Buck, Cunningham, Herrera, etc. It would make far more sense for them to land a shortstop, since I doubt that Gregorio Petit or Cliff Pennington is the answer.

That would be a brilliant move by the Athletics. Murton is just a fill in guy at this stage for the A's. Pushing him and Street to the Rays is genius.

They should be able to land a bounty. Steet alone is worth something nice. Throw in Murton to a team that needs OF help now and you have a sweet trade opportunity.

The Dodgers need to put Penny at the closer role until Saito comes back!! Penny woul be lights out when he only has to go 1 inning, AND he still needs to rehab before rejoining the rotation. DO IT DODGERS!!!

No way will they put Penny at closer....

They are already grooming Broxton for the position next year, so why not stick him in there and see how he does...

Besides, they can't rely on guys like Stults an Park for the rest of the year....

Johnny Rotten, right on!

Buster Olney look like a sweaty mess on TV. He is useless.

that trade of street and murton to the rays sounds like it makes sense. the rays could give them brignac who the as have a need for and one of those starters the rays have. then the as will be in a better position to deal blanton, which they will do anyways. tampa needs bullpen help.

Pirates trade Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, and Marte for Lowrie, Masterson, and Bowden.

If Greene was traded to the Red Sox, who would they give up? I do not see that happening. One we would have to get Lowrie back since SD doesn't have a SS in the system, and an outfielder of some sort. I just don't see the red sox doing that. But Greene in Fenway would be something, since his power would be nice for them, and getting him out of PETCO might be just what he needs.

Street is going to be something to follow, along with Blanton, just to see how much Beane is going to be able to pillage from other organizations.

Lowrie for Greene has the makings of a passable proposal. Ultimately, any SS acquired comes with the additional bonus of displacing Lugo, and Sox FO doesn't seem to think Lowrie can stick at SS...

I'm not that hyped about Greene though. I doubt he'd fare any better in Boston.

Newmie, I think you'd have to add prob two more prospects to your Pirates Redsox deal, Bay alone would be Lowrie, Bowden + more. I'd say at the very least you'd have to add Bard, Place, and Kalish

I will admit that Greene is having a terrible year, but his home/away splits for his career are astounding
Home: .227 .290 .369 .659
Away: .271 .321 .487 .808

Considering that Fenway had the highest Park factor last year, and is 12th currently, and PETCO was dead last in 2007 and 27th thus far this year, i think Greene would be about what his career away stats would be in Boston.

"Pirates trade Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, and Marte for Lowrie, Masterson, and Bowden."

As a Pirates fan I have mixed feelings about this proposal. While I'd be thrilled to get 3 of Boston's top 10 prospects I'm not sure that three proven commodities for three prospects is a fare deal when one of them is Bay. I also don't see where Bay would fit in with Boston. Where would he play when Ortiz is back? Surely Ellisby is going to the bench? Drew? I don't see a match up with Bay. Marte and Wilson, yes. Could those two net a Lowrie and another solid pitching prospect on the fringe of the top 10 and maybe another lower tier prospect?

"Newmie, I think you'd have to add prob two more prospects to your Pirates Redsox deal, Bay alone would be Lowrie, Bowden + more. I'd say at the very least you'd have to add Bard, Place, and Kalish"


No.

I'm not sure why people are linking Wilson to the Red Sox. He's not a significant upgrade over Lugo (sad statement, but the numbers bear this out), and he is not exactly a bargain-basement find at $7.25M next year ($8.4M in 2010, with a $0.6M buyout).

Bay, on the other hand, is eminently affordable, but is a 1.5-year rental if traded before the deadline.

Marte is another 1.5-year rental, assuming his option is exercised, and both he and Bay could theoretically net four draft picks after 2009.

Lowrie, Masterson and Bowden carry much more value at this point than four draft picks, and one poster is suggesting that Bard, Kalish and Place be thrown into the mix. That constitutes 5 of the Red Sox top 7 prospects, and all 6 are in the organization's top 10 by some accounts, with Place rounding out the bounty.

This is madness, particularly considering Jack Wilson offers negative value to the Red Sox, in light of his contract and the amount the Red Sox would have to eat on Lugo's contract to displace him.

I am aware that Bay and Marte are hot commodities, but if the Pirates think they can get six top prospects for them, then they might be wise to try to move them separately and engage teams in bidding wars, because few teams would be willing to completely empty out the cupboards for two rentals -- especially not a team that already has the pieces for a championship run.

On the other hand if they get Colletti on the phone, the Pirates might walk away with Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, and LaRoche, just for starters...

Greene might do some serious damage in Fenway if he gets that RH power stroke back. He'd also be a nice upgrade in the field over Lugo. I'm not as sold on Lowrie as some of the fans on this site, he's an adequate SS in the field at best and certainly a downgrade from Greene -- and I can't see him having much power in Petco. If I'm San Diego, I'd want Lowrie and another player.

If San Diego can wrangle two decent prospects for Greene, then I have to tip my cap to Towers. Greene's career OPS is almost identical to Lugo's. The fact that Greene has some pop just barely compensates for the fact that he gets on base about as frequently as a replacement-level back-up catcher.

As for the Petco factor, Lowrie's minor league OPS is .827, and he's at .733 over his limited sample size in the majors. Run production is not measured solely in terms of homeruns. Much of what Greene gains by occasionally putting the ball over the wall, he gives back by failing to reach base.

This is not so much praise of Lowrie as it is an indictment of any team willing to give up much to get Greene.

"This is madness, particularly considering Jack Wilson offers negative value to the Red Sox, in light of his contract and the amount the Red Sox would have to eat on Lugo's contract to displace him."

I agree with most of your post DunkinDonuts except the Wilson and negative value part. Again I do understand in the context of the money you have committed to Lugo but Wilson's contract is extremely reasonable and I do believe he's an upgrade. So if you are not pleased with Lugo's performance and you have no reasonable expectations to think he will return to his Devil Ray form, where do you go from here. Do you go with an internal solution? Again I agree the proposed trades above won't happen. It's ludicrous to think an organization in Pittsbugh position can afford to engage in a three player trade. There is no way they will maximize value that way. I was looking at a Wilson/Marte package because a thought SS might be a position of need. I'm just curious, where are the Sox looking to upgrade?

I think the upgrade Greene provides defensively alone is worth the acquisition for Boston. Add some occasional pop at the bottom of the order and he'd help the Red Sox. As for Lowrie, it's doubtful he's a big league SS and he doesn't have the bat you want at third...so where do you put him? 2b? Boston has Pedroia there. I'm looking at the flip side here. If Epstein can get a good defensive SS with some pop for a player that would probably only be a utility guy on his club - and one with defensive limitations at that - then I'd tip my hat to Epstein.

"Pirates trade Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, and Marte for Lowrie, Masterson, and Bowden."

Can't see the Red Sox having the slightest interest in this trade unless Big Papi ends up being out for the season, which doesn't look likely. The most valuable piece is Bay and if Papi is healthy, there is no where for Bay in the lineup. Marte would be a nice pickup, but not for any of these prospects. Masterson has already shown he can succeed at the big league level and still has room to grow. Bowden is possibly the best pitcher in the Easter League (AA) this year and his stuff has gotten much better this year compared to last year. Lowrie could potentially be moved, but the Sox would have to target a SS with Lugo being out for 4-6 weeks, but I doubt Jack Wilson is the answer. I think a more likely place to look is in Washington. The Sox could target John Rauch and Cristian Guzman. Guzman is a free agent at the end of the year, so there is little commitment there and Rauch would be an excellent bullpen addition. I'm not sure what it would take to get them though. I'd be comfortable with making Lowrie the centerpiece of the deal and mix in another B level prospect or two that Jim Bowden likes. Any Nats fans out there willing to chime in?

Wilson would certainly be an upgrade over Lugo, but it's tough to ignore the money. If we combine Wilson's and Lugo's contracts (assuming optimistically that Lugo's option for 2011 doesn't vest), that's $33.65M committed to SS for two years, since it doesn't look like there would be many [any?] takers for Lugo after his last two seasons. The Red Sox could be looking at $16.825M per to settle their shortstop problem, and would have to add prospects on top of it.

I don't think Wilson represents enough of an upgrade that the Red Sox would dole out prospects and simply pay Lugo to ride the pine. The fact that Lugo was still the starter until he got injured suggests that the front office is reluctant to cut bait on ANOTHER free-agent shortstop after cutting its losses with Renteria (and subsidizing his performance for the Braves).

Unless Lowrie plays the position completely incompetently, I think the Red Sox are more likely to go with a Cora/Lowrie platoon... or perhaps will pick up a MI on the cheap.

As for where the Sox plan to upgrade, I think Marte is the most obvious need. They would like to solidify their bullpen with Timlin, Delcarmen, and Hansen tiptoeing through some nail-biters, and Okajima finally coming back to earth [they're hoping Masterson will slide into the bullpen seamlessly].

Bay would be a nice option in LF, but a move for him would almost certainly mean Manny's option would NOT be exercised. Bay is a bargain for 2009, but will look to get paid in 2010 and beyond. I'm not sure he's enough of an upgrade over Ramirez [at big money, but short years that give the team roster and payroll flexibility] for the Red Sox to give up the prospects it would take to get him.

"If Epstein can get a good defensive SS with some pop for a player that would probably only be a utility guy on his club - and one with defensive limitations at that - then I'd tip my hat to Epstein."

I guess my point was that Greene should not be more than a utility guy on his current club. Alex Gonzalez had "some pop" and was a veritable wizard with the glove, but his .299 OBP sent the Red Sox scrambling for an upgrade. They badly miscalculated with Lugo, but they have made it clear that they will jettison shortstops who underperform with the glove (Renteria) as well as those who field like Ozzie Smith but hack like they're allergic to getting on base (Gonzalez). Lugo has been disappointing on both fronts, but there's no indication that the Red Sox wish to give up a prospect so a player like Greene has the opportunity to be Alex Gonzalez 2.0.

The Sox could target John Rauch and Cristian Guzman. Guzman is a free agent at the end of the year, so there is little commitment there and Rauch would be an excellent bullpen addition. I'm not sure what it would take to get them though. I'd be comfortable with making Lowrie the centerpiece of the deal and mix in another B level prospect or two that Jim Bowden likes. Any Nats fans out there willing to chime in?

I'm not as sure as you might be that the Nats would make the ideal trade partner as for the Nats to trade Rauch they would want a big return. Lowrie and a couple B prospects wouldn't be enough. Rauch is under control for 2 more years at a great price. Without Masterson or Bowden i don't know if the deal would get done. I know that the intial reaction would be no way but look at what was given up for Gagne and he was injured, more expensive and a rental.

Agreed that Jim Bowden would not give up Rauch for Lowrie + spare parts. M. Bowden or Masterson or Bard would certainly be discussed, and trading Masterson for Rauch might be counterproductive in light of his recent conversion to the bullpen, high upside, and team control.

I dont think if you are the sox you need to make a move right now. if an emergency move needs to be made, it will be made when it comes up. As for right now you got a RED HOT dustin pedroia and youkilis is flashing some power and batting (and of course fielding) very well. Varitek and lugo are two offensive weak spots (lugo defense as well) but lugos speed keeps the sox a running team. However, I agree that Lowrie is not the answer the sox are looking for in his place. For this season, they are playing well enough to make the playoffs and last year and 2004 when they had healthy rosters they shined. Sean Casey has been amazing as well and gives them an easy option of resting youkilis or ortiz as needed. Right now Casey is hitting amazingly and has proven as effective as most starting first basemen. I give casey the nod to rest youk and ortiz as needed through the second half. If it comes down to ortiz cant return to form, you make an emergency move for an Xavier nady or another player who they wouldn't have to sell the farm to dislodge. they have an amazing farm system and i'd hate to see them lose it for anyone (besides matt holliday due to the fact that he is a perfect manny replacement. same type of player, great hitter with above average/good power).

because of how careful they are being with ortiz i expect a full return to form. I think they will give him a lot of time off and make sure that when he returns, he is ready.

guys i really dont think jed lowrie and masterson have the type of value that bay and marte have. lowrie just hasnt done anything yet. i was proposing a anderson/duncan/garcia/reyes deal for those 2 a while back for the cards, but i dont think the bucs want a young catcher.

as for the comments on jack wilson, having seen him so many times over the years i cant see how hes not an upgrade over lugo. lugo was a career scrub, had one good year, boston signed him, and now people wonder why he sucks. wilson has never been a really good hitter(he was really bad for a few years) but his defense is absolutely top notch. he makes tough plays and he makes them look easy. the cards have wanted him bad but that contract hes signed to isnt good. maybe not so much a problem for the red sox.

Olney really is an idiot. I saw a piece today where he says the Mets have been carried by their hot pitching, then he goes on to say, but the question is, will the VERY OLD pitching staff be able to keep it up in the second half. Huh?

Johan Santana, age 29
Pedro Martinez, age 36
John Maine, age 27
Oliver Perez, age 26
Mike Pelfrey, age 24

And in the bullpen, aside from Wagner, at 35, not ridiculously old, they have Heilman, 29, Duaner Sanchez, 28, Joe Smith, 24, Scott Schoeneweis, 33, Pedro Feliciano, 31, and Carlos Muniz, 27. Wow, what a bunch of old geezers.

Maybe he had a braincramp and thought this was still 2007 with El Duque, Glavine and Pedro leading the pack.

Olney really is an idiot. I saw a piece today where he says the Mets have been carried by their hot pitching, then he goes on to say, but the question is, will the VERY OLD pitching staff be able to keep it up in the second half. Huh?

Johan Santana, age 29
Pedro Martinez, age 36
John Maine, age 27
Oliver Perez, age 26
Mike Pelfrey, age 24

And in the bullpen, aside from Wagner, at 35, not ridiculously old, they have Heilman, 29, Duaner Sanchez, 28, Joe Smith, 24, Scott Schoeneweis, 33, Pedro Feliciano, 31, and Carlos Muniz, 27. Wow, what a bunch of old geezers.

Maybe he had a braincramp and thought this was still 2007 with El Duque, Glavine and Pedro leading the pack.

sorry for the double post. Good old type key.

ok i havent looked into it that much but...is it possible the Dodgers could trade Lowe for Pat Burrell?

just seems to me that the Dodgers have no interest in signing him next year and we might as well get a big bat out of it

and nrmax its funny you mention that because i was thinking the same thing. all in all they are a pretty young pitching staff and a pretty young team in general. Yes they have their "oldies" or "broken down" players such as hernandez, alou (still was solid when healthy), martinez (whos still VERY solid), delgado, ect. the majority of the roster is still very young. reyes, wright, santana, maine, pretty much the entire CORE of the team is still under 30. then you got guys like beltran, castro ect are all just past that 30 mark. Team average age per player would prolly work out to 28-29 i'd think though i haven't done the math. But that wouldn't classify them as anywhere near an "old" team.

"I take it Olney hasn't heard of a guy the Dodgers have named Jonathan Broxton."

Apparently not. Why the hell would the Dodgers give up the real talent that Beane would want for Street, who has been anything but lights out this year. The Dodgers bullpen is a strength, not a weakness, and Proctor's return from the DL will help that. Broxton has always been the Dodgers' closer of the future and has handled the role in the past. They also have capable set up men in Kuo and Beimel.

"Besides, they can't rely on guys like Stults an Park for the rest of the year...."

Stults, probably not. Park, they probably can. Have you seen the way that guy has pitched? The movement combined with the velocity? He is pitching with number 3 quality as a number 5.

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