Yankees Eyeing A.J. Burnett?

Give the Jays Tabata/Jackson and Kennedy. Deal? or one more prospect.

I think Tabata and Kennedy would easily get it done. Would they Yankees offer that though.

I really don't see the Yankees prospects as matching up with the Jays needs.

Can never have too much pitching.

Color me interested as long as Jackson isn't part of the deal. Upgrading from Ponson to Burnett would be worth a couple games in the standings.

No way you give up Austin Jackson for a huge wild card like Burnett. Jackson is probably going to be in New York's outfield by the end of '09.

I'm not sure the Yankees would be willing to move any of their big name prospects to Toronto. I think they would be scared that a guy like Tabata would figure it out and reach his ceiling with a divisional rival.

Probably worth mentioning that Wells and Rios are likely in that OF for a long time and Travis Snider should be arriving shortly. OF is the least of their needs.

I wouldn't be shocked if Snider was moved to first. I mean if the Yankees had the chance to add a young player like Jackson or Tabata, then you take that. Obviously though with Adam Lind as well the Jays won't be persuing outfielders. Ideally they need a shortstop and a catcher IMO.

A "huge wild card like Burnett"? Why do people get so caught up in this season, tiny sample sizes? The guy has a career 3.88 ERA, he is exactly who we thought he was. Right now his ERA looks high but he's been healthy all season and the victim of a poor BABIP, which will normalize and send his ERA south in the 2nd half. The important thing is that he is striking out a guy per inning and his walk rate has decreased from last year. His W-L record is completely irrelevant, he never gets any run support. The guy is a legitimate, bona fide #2 for any MLB staff, and if the Yankees aren't STARTING talks at Jackson/Kennedy JP should hang up. As JP himself pointed out recently, he turned his last FA departure into JP Arencibia and Brett Cecil, 2 guys having phenomenal AA seasons in just their first full seasons of pro ball...so the Jays aren't going to settle for a mediocre prospects package for one of the best arms in baseball.

They have a decenty catcher in the minors, though. JP Arencibia. He's hitting .306 with 8 home runs and 21 RBIs. He was #4 on Baseball America's top 10 prospects list. The Jays need a 1B/DH/OF type, unless they can get a shortstop.

"If the Yankees aren't STARTING talks at Jackson/Kennedy JP should hang up."

Not going to happen in this market. I agree that AJ's legit, but his value is closer to Blanton than CC, especially with the opt-out clause which is worse than free agency."If the Yankees aren't STARTING talks at Jackson/Kennedy JP should hang up."

Not going to happen in this market. I agree that AJ's legit, but his value is closer to Blanton than CC, especially with the opt-out clause which is worse than free agency.

That's right Joe, the Jays don't need catchers. Curtis Thigpen and Robinzon Diaz have had their cups already, and they are being passed by now by JP Arencibia, Brian Jeroloman, and Eric Kratz.

92-93, I do think Burnett is undervalued, but there is just so much baggage. He probably will rebound but there's a chance he doesn't. He has attitude problems. He is inconsistent. He has a bad contract clause. He ks also injury prone, so teams are afraid that they'll get stuck with that bad contract if he gets hurt. All of these things lower Burnett's value. And even though he is a bona-fide #2, his value is more of a of a #3 because of the baggage.

He is also injury prone, not he ks also injury prone. Sorry.

"It's the contract, stupid".

AJ's a fine pitcher, but the contract is absolute garbage.

He pitches well? He's a rental (a tier below Sabathia/Harden).

He pitches poorly/gets hurt? You have Carl Pavano.

So, by nature of the contract, you're going to get much less than the As or Indians got. Tabata+Kennedy is too much; Kennedy's struggles notwithstanding, if he develops into a Blanton (at league minimum), that has value.

Come on 92-93 - a legitimate #2 on any ML staff? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and go with his career ERA of 3.88. Below are the teams and the number of starters that team has who have pitchers with an ERA under 3.88.

AZ (2 - Webb, Haren)
ATL (2 - Jurriens, Hudson)
BOS (3 - Lester, Wake, Matz w/ Beckett right there)
CHW (3 - Danks, Floyd, Buehrle)
CHC (3 - Zambrano, Harden, Dempster)
COL (2 - Jiminez, Cook)
FL (2 - Nolasko, Olsen)
LAA (3 - Lackey, Santana, Saunders + Garland/Weaver right there)
LAD (2 - Billingsley, Kuroda w/ Lowe right here)
MIL (3 - Sabbathia, Sheets, Para)
MIN (2 - Blackburn, Baker)
NYY (3 - Mussina, Pettit, Chamberlain)
NYM (2 - Santana, Pelfrey)
OAK (3 - Duchscherer, Eveland, Smith)
PHI (2 - Hamels, Moyer)
SEA (2 - Hernandez, Bedard)
STL (2 - Lohse, Wainwright)
TAM (3 - Garza, Shields, Kazmir)

That puts Burnett squarely in the #3/#4 starter range for most teams sporting a record over .500. Again, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt and using career numbers vs his actual numbers. If we did this list with his actual 2008 numbers he would be a 4/5 pitcher on most good clubs and on some clubs he would not be in the rotation period.

You take away his K/9 and what you have is pitcher who over his career has been slightly better than LA. It's fine to project a players success using his tools when he is young. But Burnett has already shown us what he has to offer. His "stuff" isn't getting better. He is what is, a decent 31 YO starting pitcher. People need to stop thinking in terms of his "potential" and focus on his extensive track record of results.

When you consider that he is sporting an ERA near 5.00 this year, has an opt-out clause that he can exercise in 2 months, and that he has somehow stayed healthy through this year (which seems to suggest that he is due for a breakdown) ... well color me surprised that teams aren't jumping up and down to get him.

bjguess, you are either unfamiliar with the concepts of sample size and pitching peripherals, or you are pretending to be.

While there are some teams on which AJ wouldn't be the #2 starter (AZ, MIL, ChiC, arguably BOS, LAA, SEA, and TB), there are many on which he would be the #1 including several on your list. He is a legitimate #2.

Nevertheless, because of his contract and inconsistency this year, he is not worth two top prospects in this market.

Like it or not, Burnett is the best pitcher out there capable of making a difference for a contender. He'll have a bad outing from time to time (like all pitchers will) but he's been very good lately & the Jays aren't going to hand him over to anyone...let alone the New York Yankees.

As a previous commenter mentioned, previous FA departures turned into 2 solid prospects - Brett Cecil & Arencibia. If they Jays perceive they're getting low balled they'll happily take the pick.

"You take away his K/9 and what you have is pitcher who over his career has been slightly better than LA."

Cool, we're allowed to take away pitcher certain stats now?

Then you list guys having career years, but are nice enough to do Burnett's career years.

AZ - Can't complain about that.
ATL - Jurriens - Rookie, rough July so far, ERA on rise.
BOS - Wake/Lester are garbage.
DiceK good year, 4.40ERA last year.
CHW - Rookie, career year.
CHC - Legit now with Harden, Dempster playing over his head.
COL - Jimenez garbage, Cook ERA over 4.

I won't even bother with the rest, your post was awful.

Burnett would be a #2 starter or better on each of these teams: Baltimore, Cleveland, Florida, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Texas, Washington.

And Fringe #2 on: Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis.

Thats 14 teams. And none of those teams are even legit playoff contenders with the exceptions of St. Louis, Philadelphia and Florida, and maybe Detroit and Texas.

To call him a legitimate #2 when he would only be one on bad teams, and has legitimate attitude and health issues, is just not fair.

Burnett probably SHOULD be a number 2, but the fact of the matter is that his past performance and future performances likely place him as more of a 3 starter. And with a contract like his, which is essentially lose-lose for the team (he pitches well, he leaves to get more money. he pitches poorly, he stays and is overpaid for two years.), he simply doesn't have as much trade value as his talent shows he should.

"And Fringe #2 on: Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis."

Since obviously you are all obsessed with ERA and tools, here goes. And keep in mind this is career, because I don't judge players on 2 months.

Burnett has much better #s than Harang.
Burnett would be Colorado's ace.
Burnett would definitely be Detroit's #2, and he compares well with Verlander.
Kansas City's ace.
He's much better than Chris Young.
Easily the Cards #2. Maybe #1.

Sure, there's a TON bad about Burnett. But that doesn't mean he doesn't go out year after year and pitch exceedingly well. His opt-out should not have any effect on his value, because nobody is worried about getting stuck with him for 2/24, that's a steal, and if he does leave, you get two top picks for him. So please don't tell me his contract is a negative, it's a positive.

Burnett has always been horribily inefficient with his pitches... He can't go deep into a game... He gets his strikeouts, sure but he hasn't won more than 12 games in a season and he gets hurt all the time... He has pitched 8 seasons and his "potential" has carried him this far far... It has gotten him an insane contract... He hasn't produced on it though... If the Yankees give him top prospects i'll laugh...

Your smoking crack if you think Burnett is better than Chris Young... Lay off the pipe son...

The yankees would trade Kennedy / Tabata / Cervilli and Jackson for CC Sabathia so I don't see them trading 3 top prospects like the same for Burnett.

Unless they have finally become desperate

Burnett becomes a "legitimate #2" when you're a Jays' fan trying to trade him.

You need to lay off the pipe if you think Burnett is better than Jeff Francis too.... lmfao

And if we're simply evaluating by pure stuff he's certainly in the upper tier of starters.

Either way, I doubt Jackson is going anywhere. I keep reading he's likely in CF next year for NY.

woundn't trade

Echo, AF. Burnett's peripheral suggest he's easily in the #2 range this year. As of the break, he had the 12th best SO rate among qualifiers and was in the top 3rd in GB rate.

(The contract is referred to as a negative because of the injury risk. If healthy, Burnett opts out. If he gets hurt and misses 2009 with 2010 as the comeback year, its $24MM mostly lost.)

"Burnett has much better #s than Harang.
Burnett would be Colorado's ace.
Burnett would definitely be Detroit's #2, and he compares well with Verlander.
Kansas City's ace.
He's much better than Chris Young.
Easily the Cards #2. Maybe #1."

Are you freaking nuts?

Aaron Harang put up far better numbers last year and has been far more durable. Overall I would prefer Harang.

Burnett isnt even close to Verlander, he just started off this year poorly but he's a legit ace. He might be their number but Bonderman could pitch equally as well. It's close.

Aaron Cook is a wayy better pitcher than Burnett at this point. His sinker is just nasty and fits Coors Field quite well. No way is he their ace.

Zack Grienke is better than Burnett. He's more consistent and has better control. He's their ace. Meche is a poor man's Burnett. Thats why KC was on my list.

He's probably better than Chris Young. But its not by much, Young was awesome last year. Easier league, Petco, regardless it was a good year.

And Adam Wainwright kicks the crap out of Burnett. Wainwright is their ace no doubt. And when Carp comes back he could very well be better than Burnett too.

Yeah..

"You need to lay off the pipe if you think Burnett is better than Jeff Francis too.... lmfao"

I'll humor you. What about Jeff Francis makes him better than Burnett? A sub 2.0 K/BB rate with flyball tendencies is not all that appealing.

An insane contract? Carlos Silva gets paid 12m. Burnett getting 12m is not insane.

Him not going deep completely isn't true. His innings per start is right up there with the leaders in the AL, and it shows because he leads the league in Ks.

His W-L record is highly irrelevant, he has played for below .500 teams over his career and still has an above .500 record, which should mean more to you than his actual record. (Unfortunately, I know it doesn't)

I agree with Meoveryouok
All rumors out of NY think Jackson will be the centerfielder at some point next season.

92-93, I'm with you in defending Burnett. Significantly, Burnett would be #1 or #2 on the Yankees.

However, it defies credulity to say Burnett's contract is a positive. Though the rest of 2008 is slightly under market, the opt-out clause makes the contract significantly less attractive than it would be if it expired this year. Nobody said that CC's contract was a positive -- they pointed out that he was a three-month rental. AJ's a two-month a rental, with the added downside that if he gets hurt or tanks you're on the hook for $24 mill over 2 years.

"BOS - Wake/Lester are garbage"

Wakefield won 17 games last year and Lester is young cheap and just threw a no hitter and he is garbage?

scribbletone, you are being extremely short sighted in your evaluations. ERA over 3 months really doesn't tell you anything at all. Burnett's looks high right now so you guys all think he isn't pitching well, but he's basically been the same guy he's always been with an unlucky BABIP, and that's going to normalize and his final #s will fall into line with the rest of his career, which is an extremely resume, one with a lower career ERA heading into 2008 than both Sabathia & Bedard.

willie randolph sucks
You using wins to judge a pitcher = me not wasting my time trying to argue with you. lol

A point about terminology: saying that AJ isn't a legitimate #2 starter because he wouldn't be #2 on some teams is like saying Mike Lowell isn't a legitimate starting third basemen because he wouldn't start at third for the Yankees.

send us SP Alan Horne, OF Jose Tabata and 3B Brad Suttle for AJ Burnett.

Psh. Well I think you're being extremely shortsighted in your evaluations.

"Burnett would be #1 or #2 on the Yankees"??? LOL!!!!

Wang, Joba, Andy and Moose all have better numbers and are more consistant pitchers than AJ.

AJ has a career 3.88 era but a 4.84 this year. He's lights out against some teams and just horrible against others. Even more disturbing is his NL-AL splits:

Against
Cincy 1.13
ATL 0.00
Cubs 3.60
Phils 2.84

BAlt 13.97 (Yanks division)
Oak 6.97
LAA 4.71
DET 5.40
TX 8.10
Tampa 4.85 (Yanks division)

Add to this he can opt out and become a rental...or if he stinks in NY, he can decide to stay and steal money? CAUTION!!

Kennedy is a maybe...but no WAY do I include Austin Jackson. They should be thinking about a Marquez quality of prospect.

It's literally insane to post his ERA against teams like it means something based on ONE start.

JaysFan99 - You would be lucky to get even ONE of those guys in this deal, let alone all three.

92-93...most were two starts. It's not the sample size, it's the pattern as I'm sure you can see.

Justin Duchscherer is the best pitcher in baseball. Look at his ERA!!!!!!!

(JaysFan, I'd do that trade on the Yankees side as well. Protects all the super-upside types and, really, no matter how well Suttle does he's without a place in NY given that he would have to hit up quite a bit to cover either 1B or a corner.)

(And there are sample size issues, Mr. JJ, if you're somehow determining Chamberlain's "consistency" relative to Burnett after just 9 big league starts.

)

(forgot to close my parenthetical comment!)

Career vs. Boston - 36.1ip 1.98era
Career vs. NYY - 53.2ip 2.85era
Career vs. Tampa Bay - 110.2ip 3.17era
Career vs. Baltimore - 53ip 5.26era

Burnett OWNS the AL East, so let's not pretend any otherwise.

That is true Joe...but to say that Burnett would be the #1 or #2 on the Yankees is ridiculous. Before he got hurt, Wang had the most wins in the league over the last three years. Andy and Moose are borderline HOF'ers. Joba has been lights out. Burnett has a 4.84 era. Doesn't make much sense obviously.

Joe Morgan: Thanks for the input. It's a realistic trade offer, NY doesn't lose much as Horne is stuck behind Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, same for Suttle and Tabata has a high ceiling but you have to give up something to get something in the end (see Alcides Escobar deal for Blanton).

He had the most wins in the league because he pitched for a team that scored 6 runs a game!

What doesn't make sense is that people evaluate pitchers based on ERA in 2008. It mystifies me.

i meant to say cardenas for blanton deal from above

Burnett's high 4s ERA should be seen as a godsend at this point, not a negative. If he were in the high 3s like the peripherals suggest he should be, his price would be much higher.

And I'd certainly slot him in as the Yankees #2 right now. Chamberlain, as much as we all love him, is untested and (as far as I've heard) still on an innings count. He might be bullpen bound if the playoffs are in the Yanks future. Mussina died right around this time last year so counting on him behind Pettitte seems risky at best.

92-93 - Yeah...I guess the fact that he has a CAREER 3.79 era...which is better than Burnett's by the way...doesn't matter. It's just the runs that made him 54-20. Uhhh, NO!

Why does that "mystify" you? Current performance doesn't matter?? LOL!! So I guess than Richie Sexon should have value of a 3 time all star with 300+ homers instead of the p!ss boy that he's become?

Don't get me wrong...I LIKE AJ and don't think it would be a bad thing to get him at all. He has great stuff but has never seem to put it all together for whatever reason. It's just when a Yankees fan sees Horne, Tabata, Austin Jackson, etc for someone that MAY be a 2 month RENTAL...I say NO WAY.

I agree that Burnett is not the guy you want to hang your roster on, but to try and claim he is less valuable that Jeff Francis is crazy.

It just so happens that I own both of them in my Strat-o-matic league, so I follow them both very closely. If I could only have one, he sure as heck would be A.J.

Have you checked in on Horne or Tabata this year?

Insisting on Burnett being the Yankees #2 is showing that you may just BE Joe Morgan.

Horne was hurt most of the year..came back early and is shelved again. Tabata is 18 years old.

These prospects are being discussed like this is a ACTAUL deal on the table. It's not...YOU guys made this up, so why are we debating it?! hahahaha

Exactly. So you're saying Burnett is not worth an injured 25 year old prospect and an 18 year old who got his status as a 16 year old that scouts were projecting.

(And you and I both know Morgan would hate Burnett. He'd talk about wins and consistency and what a great teammate Jack Billingham and on and on. Burnett's numbers are very, very nice outside of his ERA. ERA can be very misleading in some cases. This is one of those cases.)

I have to actually do some work today. Have fun guys...thanx for the chat!

"These prospects are being discussed like this is a ACTAUL deal on the table. It's not...YOU guys made this up, so why are we debating it?! hahahaha"

These are the types of things that get debated on a website dedicated to things that won't happen 95% of the time.

I was joking because Joe Morgan is INSANE! lol

I don't think ERA is misleading at all. Infact, it's a better guage than wins and losses. If you see a guy who is 12-4 but has a 5.12 era...you can deduce that his team must be giving him 6+ runs a game and he is just a lucky recipiant and an average pitcher at best. Conversely, if a guy is 3-7 with a 2.85 ERA, you can see that he's a good pitcher who's team never scores for him. You can hide how many runs a game you give up...doesn't matter how "nice" the other numbers are.

Well said, NJM.

And for the record, Burnett's numbers are already normalizing. Over his last 6 starts, he has thrown 42.2 innings with 42k and 14bb, 4-2 3.59era. And even over this stretch, he has sort of continued a trend of his I've been noticing, since he gave up 6 and 7 runs in two of the games - Burnett has 2 good starts for every bad one. Check out his season game log.

I meant to say....you CAN'T hide how many runs a game you give up. (sorry)

Ok, really going this time.

But if you're taking ERA as an absolute and not factoring things like defense and just plain bad luck, you're saying Duchscherer is the best pitcher in the majors this year and that Marcum is better than Johan and Webb and so on. Wins are bad, ERA is good but peripherals are better.

(Better as a forecasting metric.)

This just gets better and better.

You can't have it both ways. I have read the following arguments from Burnett defenders:

1. You can't look at a small sample size. Three months of performance is not an accurate measure of a pitchers body of work.

AND

2. Burnett has turned the corner and has pitched very well over his last few starts.

Which is it? We should look at his entire career, except the most recent 3 months, except you can look at his past 4 starts. What kind of crazy analysis is that?

My previous post was not meant to delve into a deep a analysis of who is better starting pitcher. I was merely challenging the statement that Burnett is a "bona fide" and "legitimate" #2 starter for "any staff". Looking at actual performances this year and giving Burnett a complete mulligan for 08 he doesn't come close to being a #2 for many teams in the league - especially playoff contenders.

Its a theory debate. Some of us strongly believe that controllable inputs (K,BB,GB) dictate outputs (ERA, wins, even WHIP to some extent). Burnett measures up very well in the inputs, the ERA just isn't lining up. A lot of that is defense, probably more is plain bad luck.

What I believe 92-93 is saying is more that the ERA matching the peripherals, not that Burnett is "pitching better".

"Looking at actual performances this year and giving Burnett a complete mulligan for 08 he doesn't come close to being a #2 for many teams in the league - especially playoff contenders."

He doesn't need a mulligan. He is pitching very well, and that's what I have been saying all along. His high ERA and bad record don't reflect how he has pitched, and over the season it will normalize. I gave the last 6 games as an example.

"he doesn't come close to being a #2 for many teams in the league - especially playoff contenders."

See my comment about Mike Lowell above. There are a few teams that have two better pitchers than Burnett, but that does not mean he isn't a bona fide, legitimate #2 starter. By that logic, Carlos Zambrano or Cole Hamels aren't legitimate #1's because they wouldn't be #1 on the Brewers, Mets, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Giants, etc.

To put it another way, the only pitchers who would be #2 on any team are #1's.

92-93 - Your agruments flat out don't hold water.

If you look at his last 4 starts, he gave up 3 combined in 2 games and 13 combined in the other 2. He has a 5.20 ERA this month...and a 5.06 ERA last month. In his last 9 starts, he's givin' up 6 or more runs in 4 of them....8 in 2 of the them.

There is a reason why experts call him an "enigma". He has lights out stuff...but one game he shows up and one he implodes. The mark of a GOOD pitcher...a #1 or #2 type of pitcher...is CONSISTANCY!!

Couldn't super high run games also be a sign that Gibbons/Gaston didn't pull him when they should have?

Couldn't super high run games also be a sign that Gibbons didn't know when to pull him?

(God I hate you TypePad)

Burnett also has the 8th worst DER. There are like a half dozen things that point to his ERA being fluky high.

"Couldn't super high run games also be a sign that Gibbons/Gaston didn't pull him when they should have"?

None of his high-run games show insane pitch counts or him going needlessly deep into games. However, Cito shouldn't take him out just because he fails to show up every third game. That taxes the pen. If he showed up for every game and was consistant, this point would be moot!

I figured it out NJM...you're secretly AJ's Dad, aren't you! You would have to be to argue in his favor so feverishly! lol

Does any pitcher show up for every game? Look at Wanger in the playoffs last year.

Well, it is simply as this. If the Jays can't get 2 decent prospects they will keep Burnett.

The should get two or three decent prospects, but not both Kennedy and Jackson, who are a bit better than decent.

BacktoBackJacks:
You nailed it.

Good work!

There is a difference between having a bad game and not showing up. If you look at AJ's game log...he either gives up 1 run or 8! That's a lack of concentration. Getting blown up in 4 of his last 9 starts is NOT the sign of a "#2" pitcher.

Like I mentioned earlier...I am totally not against the Yankees trading for him. However, I agree with AF...Kennedy AND Jackson?? NO.

Tell ya what, we'll give you Ponson AND Sexson!! Deal? (joking)

Right. Its concentration and consistency. Some days he puts in 5 hours researching the hitters he'll be facing, others he's on the mound thinking about that really funny joke that Brandon League told the night before when before he realizes, "OMG, 7 runs are in". Its not defense, its not bad luck, its not missing spots at bad times, its consistency and concentration. Right-o.

EVERY pitcher faces the same obstacles NJM. The Yankees D is nothing to write home about....especially when Abreu acts like his usual p*ssy self in RF. They have Giambi at 1B and Damon's rag arm usually in LF. However, Moose and Andy sill have sub 4 ERA's because they are good, consistant pitchers.

Bottom line on this way-to-drawn-out convo....Burnett has a 5.20 ERA this month and a 5.06 last month and has been shelled in 4 of the last 9 games. He's 10-9 with 4.84 overall. You can blame it on bad D, you can blame it on my sisters a$$....those numbers are NOT #2 starter numbers. Those are the FACTS. Asking for Kennedy AND Jackson is a pipe dream to anyone who isn;t a Jay's fan...espeically for a guy who may be a RENTAL. Nothing else to say here.

Did you just take the ball & threaten to go home?

Mike Mussina's ERA has been over 4 3 of the last 4 seasons, and Andy Pettitte's ERA has been over 4 the last 2 seasons. Were they not good, consistent pitchers last year?

Nope....NJM seems like a nice guy and we've had a friendly debate...but there is nothing really else to say on the subject. Should every chat go on forever or can there be closure Dee.

You guys are like a broken record! lol

Are you really comparing Andy and Moose's resume to AJ Burnett? You can't be THAT ridiculous.

Kennedy & some decent guy not named "Jackson".
Does that sound reasonable?

Burnett - 79-75 3.88era

Andy - 212-120 3.84
Moose - 262-150 3.70

Combined they are 204 games over .500 for their career. I'd say that's a HAIR better than AJ.

Resume means nothing going forward. The fact of the matter is that Burnett's defense *is* letting him down; he has a .681 DER while the team as a whole is at .705. There is nothing he can do to change that, its just bad luck.

(Yankees DER is .689 so even with their issues and all that, they're providing better overall fielding to their pitchers than Burnett has received to date.)

DEE - Based on talent, I would say that IS reasonable.

The thing that scares me (and the Yankees) about AJ is the fact that he can opt out after the year. Then we traded Kennedy for a 2 month rental. If he was locked up for 2 years, I would do that deal. Even worse...he has a player option...so if he turns into Carl Pavano, he can get paid anyway. It's a risk based more on structure than talent!

You just proved the point a lot of us were trying to make. Andy is nearly 100 games over .500 with an ERA 0.04 lower than Burnett. If you give Burnett the Yankee offense, he's going to succeed.

About the AJ being the #2 for the yankee's. All I have to say is AJ is the #2 for the Jays which is a far better staff then the yankee's. So draw your own conclusions.

NJM - Soooo..... the difference in .689 DER to .681 DER is responsible for the fact that Moose has a 3.49 era and AJ has a 4.84 era? There is not nearly that big a difference to justify nearly a run and half MORE per game, sorry.

Furthermore....I guess the bad D only happens every THIRD game or so? They seem to be pretty good during all of those games where he only gives up one run...magically, the SAME defense is trash during the 4 of last 9 where he got shelled? Again, your love for the player aside...facts are facts and he is 10-9 with a 4.84 era and possibly a 2 month RENTAL.

Does anyone else have something new to talk about? This horse has been ridden, beaten and sent to the glue factory already! Geez!

DEVO

Wong - 8-2 4.07
Andy - 11-7 3.86
Moose - 12-6 3.49
Joba - 2-3 2.52

BURNETT - 10-9 4.84

Do the math and tell me how he fits into that #2 hole.

Also that. Fairly simply stated.

Its Wang, not Wong.

And, for the 1,000,000 time, ERA is not all defining. There are flukes that happen both ways; for every Duchscherer (who by your logic would be the ace of every team in the majors), there is a Burnett.

NJM - We already agreed to disagree.

Next topic.

Until I have converted you to the realm of peripherals, we will do no agreeing. Your world will never look the same. You'll even be able to show Boston fan friends why Matsuzaka has an imminent 2nd half collapse coming.

Duchscherer has only given up 3 earned in ONE game this YEAR. The rest, two or less. THAT is consistancy. THAT makes a great pitcher...and YES....he has been one of the top starters in all of baseball this year.

Pitching a shut-out one game and then giving up 8 the next may make for 4 era...but I'm quite positive ANY team would rather have the guy who keeps his team in the game EVERY game. That's why Duke played in the all star game and AJ wasn't even a distant thought for it.

NJM - I'm trying to keep this cordial...but you will never "convert me" into anything with your rationale. I speak with facts and numbers and have actually played the game...you speak with opinion for one. Two, my thoughts on AJ have been echoed by ever column, every exec, every announcer and GM who has spoken publically about the guy. ALL say the SAME thing. He has #1 starter STUFF...but has never been able to put it together on ANY consistant level whatsoever. Any m0r0n who looks at his game log this year can see the SAME thing...it's right there in black and white.

I'm not responding to this subject any more. I've already wasted WAAAAY too much time discussing it.

"I speak with facts and numbers"

Unlike my facts (K, BB and GB rates correlate strongly from year to year and are the best predictive metrics for ERA) and numbers (see previous parenthetical comment, lots of numbers underlying that).

"and have actually played the game"

Me too! OMG!! Maybe we played against each other!!!

(Never fails that when someone is able to utilize/understands stats that haven't been around for 100 years, they must have never played the game. Thanks for playing Joe Morgan to my NJM. I bet that read really funny for quite a few people.)

I shall bookmark this. We'll see if Burnett's 1st half ERA predicts a similar 2nd half ERA or if his 1st half peripherals predict a better 2nd half ERA. I'm sure one of us will be a gentleman and admit that, atleast in this case, we were wrong.

(You don't need to respond. Wouldn't want to force another "a" or two into your next waaaaaaay.)

jj, your baseball thinking is stuck back in 1908. but i'll even entertain how you are evaluating pitchers (which is completely wrong). you think andy pettitte is consistent and aj burnett isnt? they both have made 21 starts this year, and they both have given up 4+ runs 7 of those times, or in other words they each have 2 good starts for every bad one. Exactly what I said the first time.

Spoken like someone who never played the game.

AJ is #2 SP for Jays which arguably one of best SP Teams..

So, AJ is #2 SP

AND, AJ never gonna trade to Yanks...

So, that's it...

Poor Yanks fans

I think burnett is a great fit for the yankees. But the yankees need to give up some good young tallent to land burnett in pinstripes. The jays will probaly want phil hughes,jeff marquez,another prospect, and cash. I think it is worth it but hopefully the yankees think it is worth it.
This could be the rotation next season:

Sp Chein-Ming-Wang
Sp A.J. Burnett
Sp Mike Mussina
Sp Andy Pettite
Sp Joba Chamberlain