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'09 Free Agents: Injury Discounts

Last winter we saw many free agents sign at a discount following injury-plagued seasons: Milton Bradley, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood, Jason Jennings, Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, and Mark Prior are examples.  Let's take a look at members of the '09 free agent class who might be signed at similar discounts.

  • Nomar Garciaparra, IF.  Nomar has been a respectable hitter in 114 plate appearances this year.  He's dealt with a knee sprain, calf strain, and broken hand while earning $8.5MM.
  • Orlando Hudson, 2B.  Though Hudson will miss almost two months with a broken wrist, not much of a discount is expected.  He should get more than $10MM per year.
  • Rafael Furcal, SS.  Furcal is an interesting case - easily the best available shortstop, but he only managed one torrid month before hitting the DL with a back injury.  He prefers to re-sign with the Dodgers before other teams have a shot at convincing him otherwise.
  • Hank Blalock, 1B/3B.  Blalock will hit the market if the Rangers buy out his $6.2MM option.  He's had shoulder, hand, wrist, back, and hamstring problems this year.  He had shoulder surgery back in October of '06.
  • Joe Crede, 3B.  He was off to a decent start, but hasn't played since July 21st due to back stiffness.  The Boras client had back surgery in June of last year.
  • Rocco Baldelli, OF.  Baldelli's options were declined, so he'll be a free agent after the season.  He's dealing with a mitochondrial disorder.
  • Frank Thomas, DH.  Thomas missed all of June and July with a quad injury, and so far hasn't rediscovered his May form.  No word on whether he's mulling retirement.
  • There's a group of starters who have pitched very little this year: Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Kris Benson, Matt Clement, Jason Jennings, Mark Mulder, Carl Pavano, and Mark Prior.  These eight pitchers were paid a total of $25MM for 62 big league innings.  They'll all be signing cheaply for '09.
  • The injured reliever pool includes Eric Gagne, Todd Jones, Joe Borowski, and Tom Gordon.


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No chat today, Tim?

Tim you left off Hampton. I can understand why...but he is still a possibility at a very seriously discounted rate as a free agent next year. Smoltz and Glavine as well...however the rumor, and obvious perception is that both will only return to the Braves. Hampton is a different story. Just a thought.

What is Isringhousen's injury?

He punched a wall and had a small cut on his hand, but other than that there is no injury.

Retirement could be an option for Izzy. No one is going to make him a closer, so it looks like he's gonna end up about a half-dozen saves shy of 300.

Removed Izzy. Chat slipped my mind, we'll do it in a bit.

What about the opposite of this: players who are playing in career years but will ultimately get hurt soon after signing a giant contract.

Yost's total abuse of Sabathia will only mean bad things for his future, 130 pitch CGs when you are up 9-2 in the 9th? Yeah the Brewers are definitely getting their moneys worth out of him, sadly at the cost of his future.

I like the idea of a "career contract years" post.

I agree with Athletic Domination.

I'd love to see a list of guys that have had big walk years and will get a huge contract that they likely won't deserve.

We can call it the All-Adrian Beltre team.

Tim glad to see you agree it's a pretty damn good idea

On the list of injury discounts, I see the following things happening:

1) Nomar - Either he retires or he signs a cheap, 2006-esque, deal to stick with the Dodgers or return to Boston to actually play a utility role

2) Hudson - While it is freaky to have the same injury twice, it is theoretically just pure bad luck. He signs in a big deal in a big market, where he wants to be, and I think he stays consistent with his production.

3) Furcal - I think the injury made it more likely that he resigns with the Dodgers. He is going to have to take a discount wherever he signs, because this back thing isn't new and could end up being a menace. I see him resigning for something like 3-30 or 4-40.

4) Blalock - He is a hell of a bat if healthy, but he is becoming a bit like Nomar at this point. I don't think he gets all that much money, perhaps $8 million a year on a 2-3 year deal.

5) Crede - Was having pretty much his typical year, power + low BA & OBP. Boras is the X-factor here. Perhaps he takes a 1 year deal to prove he is healthy.

6) Baldelli - Tons of talent, but WAY too scary on the injury front. Perhaps he takes a single year to show he can still play.

7) Thomas - Who really cares? Thomas WAS a great hitter, but is now little more than an injury riddle DH.

8) Relievers - I think Gagne and Gordon are the most interesting. Borowski has never been much of anything, and lucked his way into all those saves last year. Jones is done. Gagne needs to find his vulcan change again, because his fastball isn't enough anymore. Flash can still pitch if healthy.

"Yost's total abuse of Sabathia will only mean bad things for his future, 130 pitch CGs when you are up 9-2 in the 9th? Yeah the Brewers are definitely getting their moneys worth out of him, sadly at the cost of his future."

How do you know Sabathia can't handle it? Ryan threw 130-150 pitch games in a 4 man rotation, throwing nothing but 98-102 MPH heaters and big, arm taxing curve balls. Who is to say that Sabathia, with his huge frame and low effort delivery can't handle the work load?

As a Cards fan I would take Nomar, if he would like to play 2nd base

I think its pretty much figured that Mulder is retiring.

Juan Uribe is also a free agent. By the numbers he is a pretty averge player but he has plays a GREAT 2nd, SS and 3RD and can give you 15-18 HR's a season. Gotta think he'll attract some intrest with him playing so well since Joe Crede got hurt.

As a Giants fan, I hope that the team takes a serious look at several of these players. For one, Crede is far better than Jose Castillo or Rich Aurillia at 3B, and would likely lead the team in HR even if he did get injured. Also, it's too bad that the Giants have Zito with that huge contract. I think that a rotation featuring Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Lowry, and Colon/Mulder/Pavano would be better than what the Giants currently have.

Forgot Glavine. However, regardless of Andrews' diagnosis, he should hang up the spikes. Even when he was healthy he wasn't good.

Izzy is injured. Torn flexor muscle in his elbow. That is what they said on the radio the morning.

Athletic Domination,

You are the Milwaukee Brewers and you know for a fact that you're not gonna resign C.C Sabathia. You're fighting for the division so why wouldn't you pitch C.C as much as you can before he goes its smart strategy as a manager.

As an O's fan, I would give Furcal a shot, given the gaping hole we have at SS (Juan Castro?!!). Other than that, I pray to God we don't sign any of these washouts!

"As a Cards fan I would take Nomar, if he would like to play 2nd base"

"Other than that, I pray to God we don't sign any of these washouts!"

Washouts? Most players would give their left nut to have half of Nomar's talent. Injuries are a bitch, but that guy is no washout. Further, where do you get the idea Hudson is a washout? He has had two freak wrist breaks, but he has consistently improved into an above average offensive player with dynamic defensive ability. Other than Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler and MAYBE Dan Uggla (pretty hard to ignore his poor defense), show me a better overall second baseman in baseball. The only one left with even the potential is Howie Kendrick. And lets not get started on just how good a hitter Frank Thomas has been. He may be old now, but that guy's career numbers suggest that he is one of the best right handed hitters in history.

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