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« Bard, Estes Become Free Agents | Main | Angels Rumors: Teixeira, K-Rod, Uggla »
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote about the possibility of the Braves pursuing Padres ace Jake Peavy this winter in a blog post yesterday. He notes that Peavy, an Alabama native, might be particularly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause to play for Atlanta.
Personally I do not see Peavy's no-trade clause as an obstacle for most clubs. In the majority of cases, the player accepts compensation and waives the no-trade power.
Peavy is a 27 year-old relatively healthy ace who is under contract for four years at a below-market price. I would look to the recent trades of Erik Bedard (two years), Dan Haren (three years), and C.C. Sabathia (three months) as precedents. All of these trades were built around a top-25 prospect (Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt LaPorta). Given that information, I would be quite surprised to see the Braves acquire Peavy without surrending Jason Heyward or Tommy Hanson. If you're Kevin Towers, why wouldn't you insist on that caliber of player? Towers can easily wait until July or the '09 winter meetings.
I will grant that Johan Santana (one year) and Rich Harden (one year and two months) were acquired for less than most people expected. But with Santana, the requirement of a $137.5MM extension limited the field. And, it may be true that Jon Lester and Phil Hughes were offered at various points. With Harden, you had the ever-present injury risk and a quality player in Chad Gaudin joining the Cubs.
In addition to the Braves, the Red Sox, Rockies, Rays, and Rangers would have the prospects to make a Peavy trade. The Yankees will probably be in the mix, though it's hard to see a deal without Hughes. The White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, and Dodgers are other teams that will be searching for pitching this winter. Many top prospects and young players are deemed "untouchable," but an ace like Peavy may cause teams to reconsider.
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Would Schafer + Morton be a good start? I'd imagine it would take more than just those two, but if you can give Jordan Schafer and Charlie Morton and be able to hold onto Hanson and Heyward, it'd be worth it.
Posted by: William | October 07, 2008 at 09:46 AM
It wouldn't even be a start. With his level of performance along with his contract, the pads will get much better offers than that.
Posted by: SkiBolton | October 07, 2008 at 09:54 AM
The Braves will not trade Heyward or Hanson.
The only way the Braves get Peavy is if SD is determined to move him to clear payroll, and Peavy limits their options using his no-trade rights.
He's expressed interest in pitching in Atlanta; so that may lower the price for the Braves. If not, I don't see it happening.
Posted by: AtlantaMike | October 07, 2008 at 09:57 AM
"While they don’t want to mortgage the future by trading away top prospects such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Jordan Schafer and Hanson, the Braves have plenty of other prospects, especially pitchers, who might interest Towers enough to make a deal."
This is a ridiculously dumb statement. If O'Brien really thinks the Padres will trade Peavy for none of our top prospects then he is out of his mind. Peavy is a top 5 pitcher in the majors locked in for below market value for the next 4 years. However, as a braves fan I would be willing to trade one of our top prospects for Peavy, because a surefire ace like Peavy is hard to come by.
Posted by: garriscp | October 07, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Living in SD and being a Padres fan (yeah, I know, it's a curse right now...), I'm obiously following this closely.
For starters: part of the reason Jake accepted a below-market contract is because he really likes SD. He just built a house there and views the city as a great place to raise kids. The weather is another element coming into play. Plus, Petco is obviously a great place for pitchers. For these reasons, I disagree that Peavy waiving his no-trade clause is a no-brainer. Remember, Giles turned down a trade to the Red Sox earlier in 08. While SD sucks as far as baseball, it is a nice place to live.
Jake has already said it would really take the perfect situation for him to leave, and that AL teams and East-Coast teams were unlikely destinations. Frankly, the only teams which could attract Jake are division rivals (Arizona, LA). I'll be surprised if he does get traded in 09. 2011 is a different story.
Basically, the only players SD fans still care about are Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Peavy, and to a lesser extent Kouzmanoff, Giles and Hoffmann (even though the latter two are free agents). Any trade involving these guys will be sure to alienate a lot of fans. Trust me, if Jake gets moved, Towers better get a LOT of top prospects or he'll be looking at an empty stadium in 09.
Posted by: tomfromsd | October 07, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Unless Peavy requires a contract extension or renegotiation, he's worth a fortune in a trade.
He's young, a top 5 pitcher in his league, no significant injury issues, and signed for 4 years at a below market rate. There's nothing to knock about him here.
If you're ever going to give up top prospects in a trade, this is the time you do it.
Posted by: yanksfan | October 07, 2008 at 10:27 AM
I don't see how the Braves should not be willing to part with one of their top prospects to make this deal work. Peavy is without a doubt an elite pitcher and probably falls somewhere in the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.
Like the article points out, teams were reluctant to part with their top prospects for Santana because they knew that even after they gave up their top prospect they were going to have to still pony up a contract for about 20 mil a year for 6-7 years. That's not the case with Peavy his contract is cheap considering his ability.
Posted by: Chris | October 07, 2008 at 10:29 AM
When push comes to shove, most players waive their no-trade clauses when they are not wanted. Giles had his reasons, but I still think Peavy would accept a trade to pretty much any contender. I would not call it a no-brainer, but I don't see this as a major hurdle.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 07, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Peavy for Francoeur straight up.
Posted by: Land-Man | October 07, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Schafer + Morton for peavy? I accept some ridiculous trade scenario like that from red sox or yankee fans, but a braves fan? I'm disapointed! His control is still low this year so I see him being traded next offseason when his contract starts to escalate. And he will still bring in a hall.
Posted by: UCSDPadsFan | October 07, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Francoeur sucks and I would give him to the Padres just so he'd go away. Then we could start negotiations for Peavy.
Posted by: csg | October 07, 2008 at 10:44 AM
San Diego should focus on P. Hughes ... still has a alot of upside ... only 22
z
Posted by: arod13 | October 07, 2008 at 10:45 AM
My guess is the Yankees get him if CC signs elsewhere. My guess is a package of Hughes and Jackson plus a few others.
Posted by: BucSox | October 07, 2008 at 10:49 AM
I think he meant Schafer + Morton as a start. What about including 2B Kelly Johnson? Would the Padres have any interest in him? They are in need of a leadoff hitter.
Posted by: XD23 | October 07, 2008 at 10:50 AM
"Peavy for Francoeur straight up."
Wow a statement like that almost makes Yankees/Cubs/Mets fans look good.
Posted by: BucSox | October 07, 2008 at 10:51 AM
It will take a lot, more then just Schafer and Morton and definitely more then "just Francoeur". That he'd waive his no-trade clause doesn't change the fact that if the Padres don't get blown away by an offer they're just as happy to keep him.
The Pads are looking for a 4-1 (3-1 if all the players are absolute studs) at least to give up Peavy and I see nothing here to suggest the Braves will do that.
Posted by: AnteaterPadre | October 07, 2008 at 10:52 AM
KJ, Brandon Jones, and Tommy Hanson would be an interesting offer. Padres fans??
Posted by: csg | October 07, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Could it be that I am the only one here who sees red flags everywhere on Peavy. Here is his injury history:
Jun 12, 2008: Missed 26 games (right elbow injury).
May 20, 2008: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to May 15th).
May 19, 2008: Sore right elbow, day-to-day.
Jun 6, 2006: Missed 3 games (shoulder injury).
Jun 4, 2006: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Sep 16, 2005: Missed 9 games (shoulder injury).
Sep 6, 2005: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Paging Dr. Andrews! Tommy John Surgery for Patient Peavy, Jake in OR 1.
And don't tell me that Schafer/Morton is a non-starter. Morton could be fantastic in Petco.
Speaking of Petco, Peavy's Home/Away Splits: 1.75 vs. 4.28.
In other words, trading for Peavy=bad news for the Braves.
Posted by: Andy Braves Fan | October 07, 2008 at 10:57 AM
OK lets get nuts here:
Trade for Peavy
Heyward ( need to give talent to get it)
Johnson
Branden Jones
add parts
Trade for Cain
Hanson ( still just a prospect not sure if he pans out)
escobar
add your parts
sign O-dog for second base
let Lillibridge play short ( Defense is there, bat him 8th)
You brought in an ACE a #2, you still have Jurjjens as your 3, second base is filled, AND you still have the money to get your left fielder.
rotation
Peavy
Cain
JJ
Campillo
fill in blank
Lineup
Anderson/Schafer
O-dog
Chipper
FA LF
Mccann
Kotchman
Francouer
Lillibrisge
Hey i know its crazy but its been brutal these past couple years, and in the trades SD and SF are def getting talent back.
Posted by: thedeuce | October 07, 2008 at 11:00 AM
Brandon Jones, Yuniel Escobar, Charlie Morton, Jeff Francour, and JoJo Reyes
for
Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene
Posted by: aj7380 | October 07, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Wow, Braves fans are almost as bad as Yankees/Mets fans.
Let's just say, any rational package starts with ONE OR MORE of Heyward, Hanson, Freeman, Schafer, or Rohrborough. Most likely, it will cost two of those guys.
It will then cost them additional players who HAVE DECENT UPSIDE. At least a 4:1 if all the players are prospects; I would also say that at least one of the prospects should be near MLB ready (i.e. Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, etc.) I could see 3:1 happening if an MLB player were in the deal. I
Exception to the rule would probably be if an MLB player like Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, etc. were in the deal, but I still see at least one of those top prospects going.
A logical sample deal (not sure if both sides would do it) would be Heyward, Rohrborough, Brandon Hicks, Brandon Jones, and Charlie Morton for Peavy.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 07, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Melonis,
Never, never compare us to Mets/Yankees fans.
That said, I said that Morton and Schafer would be a good start to negotiations. Considering Peavy's injury history and home/away splits I wouldn't go far beyond that. I know that such an attitude wouldn't get a deal done, but I don't think the Braves should make this deal. I see Peavy's elbow exploding before this contract ends.
The deal you proposed probably is about what the Pads asking price would be, and I hope that Frank Wren will have the sense to hang up the phone.
Posted by: Andy Braves Fan | October 07, 2008 at 11:53 AM
melonis rex, I think the Braves would consider something like Kelly Johnson, Gorkys Hernandez (who I really like and think is a better CF prospect than Schafer, but he's one year further away from mlb-ready), Cole Rohrbough, and (if you really want him), Lillibridge. Maybe Brandon Jones instead of Lillibridge.
That's a solid 2B, an outstanding 5-tool CF prospect, a highly ranked pitching prospect, and a strong-glove, waiting-to-learn-to-hit SS.
Posted by: AtlantaMike | October 07, 2008 at 11:53 AM
"Wow a statement like that almost makes Yankees/Cubs/Mets fans look good."
I think your sarcasm meter needs to be calibrated.
Posted by: Something Profound | October 07, 2008 at 12:05 PM
"Never, never compare us to Mets/Yankees fans."
Yeah. Met and Yankee fans actually show up for playoff games.
Posted by: icedrake523 | October 07, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Ice, what playoff games?
Many of the "Yankees" fans I knew are still attending playoff games...Red Sox games.
And the Mets have only been to the playoffs, what, twice in the past 20 years?
Posted by: Andy Braves Fan | October 07, 2008 at 12:20 PM
"Yeah. Met and Yankee fans actually show up for playoff games."
Zing! Oh man, this guy is too much. I bet he thought of that all by himself.
Posted by: Something Profound | October 07, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I will not disagree that peavy might eventually need surgery. But so will every pitcher in baseball that throws over 200ip. And Andy, you're complaining about road vs home splits? Wow do some research before you speak.
If bedard netted a legit 5 tool CF (a top 10 prospect) and a potential closer for 2 yrs of bedard, the padres should and will ask for more. Especially since we are not desperate to move his contract THIS season (since he is on the books for either 9 or 11 mil). And when we do move him, teams will be competing since we can drive up his price (unless we get greedy like the twins)
Posted by: UCSDPadsFan | October 07, 2008 at 12:44 PM
UCSD,
Did do the research, and what I found was that his career ERA is 1 pt. higher on the road. Not that a 3.80 ERA is poor, but it isn't the ridiculous 2.xx that he serves up at home. He also gives up significantly more HR's away (makes perfect sense considering Petco's spacious confines), but also strikes out significantly fewer batters on the road.
There is no denying that Peavy is a great pitcher when healthy. My problem with his health is that, unlike guys like Sabathia or Santana who have no history of arm troubles (I only mention Sabathia because his performance is comparable), Peavy has spent a good amount of time on the DL ALREADY with Shoulder and Elbow problems. He has a violent delivery, and pitchers like that tend to spend more time on the DL than others.
It's also not true that "every pitcher in baseball that throws over 200ip" will have to have surgery. Plenty of pitchers who have pitched over 200 innings have never had surgery, or at least not until very late in their careers. Do some reasearch yourself, and try not to be so cocky.
Posted by: Andy Braves Fan | October 07, 2008 at 01:00 PM
Peavy is already playing for a rebuilding team i doubt he wants to go to another rebuilding team...The Cardinals should make a run at him because Carpenter is injury prone and isn't and ace and they need a pitcher...I agree i don't think he'll be traded until at least mid way through the 09 season.
Posted by: JT89 | October 07, 2008 at 01:57 PM
Huh. I wonder if Peavy's friendship with Scott Linebrink (they used to play music together during road trips, according to an article in the SD paper) would influence him to accept a trade to the White Sox. Couple that with playing for an excitable manager (as opposed to mellow guys like Bochy and Black), and the preponderance of fellow outdoorsmen in Chicago (Buehrle, A.J., Thome)...not that any of this means anything, of course.
Posted by: EddieC | October 07, 2008 at 03:24 PM
a trade of Jordan Schaefer, Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-jo Reyes or Charlie Morton, and Brandon Jones or Brent Lillibridge and 1 lower level prospect for peavy sounds like an interesting trade.
5 for 1 - thats alot of good talent but you are getting Jake Peavy - thoughts..
Posted by: Z3R0 | October 07, 2008 at 03:34 PM
Z3R0, Shafer and Hernandez are basically the same player. We need to keep one, and I don't know how SD could use both (except in trade). Otherwise, substituting a good prospect for one of those guys, I think we have a deal.
Posted by: AtlantaMike | October 07, 2008 at 03:49 PM
I completely agree with Andy Braves Fan, Peavy is too injury prone to come to Atlanta where injuries become curses in post-Mazonne era. (Hampton, Hudson, Smoltz, Gonzo, Moylan, Sori, etc.)
Peavy would not be a good idea when we could get Greinke or a young Oakland pitcher for a similar if not cheaper price in a good Peavy scenario.
Heyward is vital to the Braves future. They haven't seen an eye-popping offensive player come out of their farm since McCann in 05. Before that? What? Furcal in 2000? and before that? Andruw in '96? An I missing someone? Please tell me. Atlanta rarely has an offensive threat-especially with power potential-come out of their farm. We need our next Chipper more than anything. If they can get Peavy with one of Shafer or Morton than go for it, pull another Hudson for scraps deal.
Posted by: insomniac | October 07, 2008 at 04:26 PM
Another "Hudson for scraps" deal will not happen.
Peavy is an elite, cheap pitcher that can be had for many years. Here's what the deal may come down to:
2B Kelly Johnson
SP Thomas Hanson
OF Gorkys Hernandez
SS Brent Lillibridge
OF Brandon Jones
for Jake Peavy. I say do it. The Braves need an elite pitcher. With only $11 mil used of the $45 mil available, the Braves can sign Derek Lowe and a left fielder with the money remaining.
Posted by: n02 | October 07, 2008 at 04:35 PM
Pads fan here...Peavy is someone you only move if you are blown away by the offer...you can talk all you want about being injury prone and all that but lets face it, they don't have to do anything...I don't know a lot about these Braves prospects but from what I've seen none of the offers you all have suggested seem worthy of Peavy...the Pads need to hold on to him unless absolutley blown away because there is no pressure to trade him this year or probably even next year so why give up your best pitcher for a mediocre package of prospects...it makes no sense to me...
Posted by: randam12 | October 07, 2008 at 04:44 PM
2B Kelly Johnson
SP Thomas Hanson
OF Gorkys Hernandez
SS Brent Lillibridge
OF Brandon Jones
is mediocre???
You get a very good hitting ML 2nd basemen in Johnson, a guy who is probably a top 25 prospect this year in Hanson, and three guys who were all top 100 prospects in baseball at the start of the year. Mediocre? No.
Posted by: n02 | October 07, 2008 at 05:04 PM
The Padres are gonna hold on to Peavy unless someone includes a superstar player right now. Rule out the AL teams b/c Peavy won't waive his clause.
Posted by: Padrepride | October 07, 2008 at 05:14 PM
When you're trading for a Peavy, it's quality, not quantity. There is simply no way this gets done without Heyward.
Then you can start adding 2nd-rate prospects.
More than likely they will require major-league ready talent.
Actually here's an idea - Mets fans - Peavy and Greene for Reyes?
Who's got more valuable? Peavy as the true ace is the more valuable commodity, but Reyes is significantly cheaper (but only under control for 3 years, as opposed to 4 or 5 for Peavy). What do you think?
You can replace Reyes' offense, but you can't get a Peavy without spending $150M+ for Sabathia.
Posted by: bobo | October 07, 2008 at 06:11 PM
n02- Your deal makes common sense, since you included Hanson and KJ. I think randam was talking more about some of the moron deals that were proposed earlier (Schafer and Charlie Morton for Peavy, for starters).
The starting point is the Erik Bedard trade. A Peavy trade has to be a notch above a Bedard trade. If Bedard had stayed healthy all season, the trade wouldn't be looked upon as poorly as it is now.
Andy Braves Fan- Then don't make trade proposals where the other team isn't getting NEARLY as much in return as they're giving up, like a lot of Yankees fans do on this blog and think they make sense.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 07, 2008 at 07:37 PM
Melonis,
Thank you for pointing out the real key difference.
As I said, there is no doubt that in order to get a deal done for Peavy, the Braves would need to move top prospects. What I am saying is that I value those prospects more than Peavy considering all of the facts. Pads fans may feel differently, and I don't blame them. It is certainly the case that fans place more value on their commodities than fans of other teams (and I am not saying that Peavy isn't valuable). Look at us Braves fans and Francoeur (though I for the record want to have him sent to the minors).
Posted by: Andy Braves Fan | October 07, 2008 at 09:44 PM
melonis rex... The Bedard trade is not the starting point unless your dealing with the Mariners GM( He just got fired didn't he)
But, I believe the Braves will not offer enough for Peavy. Only way Braves get him is if he basically tells the Padres he'll only accept trade to Braves. Not very likely.
Posted by: ColoradoBravesFan | October 07, 2008 at 11:52 PM
The Pads need a 2B and OF.
I would be willing to part with Hanson to receive a player of Peavy's calibe. Hason has not proven he can pitch lights-out in the Pro's, whereas Peavy has been excellent the past two season (this year he had no run support) and is signed long-term. Your not really killing your teams future if you acquire a player like Jake who is still young, a proven ace and signed at below-market price.
I would be willing to deal: KJ, B. Jones, Hanson and another player if necessary.
Posted by: ChiefTomahawk | October 08, 2008 at 09:35 PM
i would not deal kj, hanson, plus two more legit prospects for peavy. i believe kj is jus waiting to break out and truely believe hanson will be lights out if we were jus an ace away id say do it, or even if huddy was healthy but not when we need to top starters and a left fielder
Posted by: chipperowns10 | October 09, 2008 at 03:40 AM
Phils fan here - We fans want Peavy. Period. I would try to come up with the blow away package.
I know we're not done with this year yet but...
C Lou Marson (reluctantly), RHP Blanton (still cheap, MLB -made for Petco), LHP Happ (reluctantly), 2B/3B Jason Donald, RHP Kendrick and OF Greg Golson (or Michael Taylor).
A Top Catching prospect, 3 MLB or MLB-ready P's, an MLB ready Olympic 2Ber and a toolsy OF.
Top that Braves Fans.
Posted by: steveh | October 09, 2008 at 05:58 PM
Okay so I just read all of this and the basic argument is whether or not anyone wants to give up our, Braves, top prospects for a ace that may be on the brink of injury. Then INSOMNIAC says the thing that makes the most sense, "Peavy would not be a good idea when we could get Greinke."
Greinke is the next Jair Jurrjens. A guy that hauled in similar numbers to Jurrjens on a worse team. Here is a guy who is about to turn 25 had 13 wins this year and a 3.47 era in the American league, which I reluctantly grant to be tougher.
The point is:
Younger
Cheaper "both bank and trade"
Injury Free
Go with the sure winner here.
Posted by: Phillip_Cannon | October 09, 2008 at 10:58 PM
Phillip_Cannon I like your theory.
Grienke was definitely a stud this year on a bad Royals team. However his past stats are not anything spectacular. In '05 he pitched similar inning but allowed 25 HR's and only had 114 K's. I know some people have speculated trading Frenchy for him. But I think Frenchy will rebound after he trims off the extra baggage he gained this year.
I still like the idea of getting Peavy. A proven commodity at SP and flame thrower. What other injuries has he had other than this year? From '05-'07 he was throwing over 200 K's a year! Thats insane my friend.
Posted by: ChiefTomahawk | October 11, 2008 at 12:14 PM
steveh,
considering our farm is much, much better than yours and you overrated your prospects, I think we could more than match that.
That said, while this might be really enticing, there are a few potential pitfalls:
1) Peavy has a 3.80 ERA on the road for his career.
2) He has had some elbow troubles recently, and the Braves seem to love ruining elbows recently.
3) Once '10 hits he'll be making $15 mil a year, so it's not like he'll be a super bargain.
Not to say he wouldn't be a good acquisition, there are just some aspects to consider before unloading any of the top 3 (Heyward, Hanson, Schafer).
Posted by: llegovski | October 13, 2008 at 02:23 PM
Chief, I would never ever ever trade Franquoer. He is going to be talked about for years to come.
Posted by: Phillip_Cannon | October 13, 2008 at 06:50 PM