C.C. Sabathia Rumors: Monday

If the Brewers can find it in their plans to push the payroll near $100M-as many people are speculating they might-I think this could be a deal that keeps CC in Milwaukee. This would leave CC 32 years old at the end of such a contract and in position to negotiate for another 6 year deal after this contract. If he were to take a 6 year contract now, he would not likely be able to get as many years in his next contract as he would like.

I didn't know who I was pulling for in the WS, but with the impending excitement of free agency/trades, I'll be pulling for the Phillies tonight so we can get the show rolling ASAP.

Fielder can stay in Milwaukee. I'm thinking the Twins and Brewers need to work something out for JJ Hardy. Perhaps, Nick Blackburn and a couple other younger arms for Hardy.

The thin about this possible offer of 4 years - $25M per is that the Yankees could esily go 6 years - $25M per. Even if CC liked Milwaukee, a guaranteed $50M is going to probably sway him towards te Yankees. Anything can happen in 4 years, especially with a body type like Sabathia's, too risky not to take the biggest deal possible7 right now.

And what do you mean "with the body type like Sabathia's"? You mean the body that type that is so big and strong that he appears to never have any signs of wear and tear?

By the way, I hate the Yankees and am not a fan whatsoever. Just want to make that clear.

I believe CC has said that he'd go anywhere if he felt its right. Discussion of where he wants and doesnt want to go has been speculation by sportswriters looking for stories and then passed on as fact by readers.

It would be interesting to see if the Brewers brought him back if they'd continue to ride his arm like they did. Especially if they don't make any moves for another significant starter.

It doesn't matter how big or strong you are, you pile up the abuse points like CC has and you'll be in for some definite "wear and tear" seasons....see Zambrano, Carlos.

Also, I don't think the previous poster was pointing out CC's "big strong body type". He was pointing out that Sabathia is incredibly fat.

"I would also imagine that if CC stays, he would all but insist that Fielder remains as well. Those two were inseperable both in the clubhouse and off the field."

---AND at the buffett table!

"Who is least likely to break down Ben Sheets or A.J. Burnett or C.C.? I know where I'd put my money."

Incredibly off-topic considering CC is going to get paid nearly double what either of those guys will be getting. If somebody signs Burnett for 4 years 60 mil and he breaks down, it won't be nearly as devastating if you sign CC for 6 years 120 mil and he breaks down, which is a legitimate concern considering he's lead the league in pitcher abuse points for the past two seasons.

NJM,

I didn't say Zambrano broke down, I said he's having "Wear and tear" seasons. His ERA+ has been on a steady decline every year since 2004. His K rate has declined to a pedestrian 6.22/9IP. His hit rate has steadily climbed as well. In addition to his first ever trips to the DL. Is Zambrano worth the huge contract he received? Absolutely not. Much like Sabathia, Zambrano routinely appeared among the league leaders in pitcher abuse points.

Teetz 1. Sabathia was 26th in PAP in 2007, 2nd this year. His 2 year total ranks 5th.

Teetz 2. Apologies if I misunderstood the Zambrano point, but I don't find them similar anyway. Zambrano puts far more "effort" (for lack of a better word) into each pitch; CC is more natural. I think that's what people mean about his size being an advantage. He's huge (both ways) and athletic and it leads to a relatively clean motion. Halladay (size + control combination) is probably a better comp in that regard.

Citron 1: You said "I keep sayin' it, but CC will not be a Yankee in 2009." which is basically saying he is not an option for the Yankees. There are certainly players who won't just go to the highest bidder, and CC has said a lot of the right things (although he's also said he loves NY), but when it comes down to it, the money plus the new stadium plus the city itself plus the franchise can be a strong selling point. He's not a given by any means, but all these internet declarations that its not happening are stupid. None of us know, but most of us know the door isn't shut. There is a fair enough chance he is a Yankee in 2009.

"I never once declared him a "non-option" for the Yankees. However, there are a number of NL teams who have what it is CC is looking for in areas other than finances and they have the money to maybe not match the Yankees, but give a very good offer that allows CC to be happy and play where he wants."

Citron's point is very valid. There have been many reports saying that if CC has to choose between 6/140 from New York and 6/110 from Los Angeles, he'll likely end up going to LA. Sabathia simply has decided to put his personal preferences above his paycheck, as it will be massive no matter what.

Obviously the situation changes if the Yankees offer like $50M more than any other team, which, with their shiny new stadium, isn't impossible.
"I didn't say Zambrano broke down, I said he's having "Wear and tear" seasons. His ERA+ has been on a steady decline every year since 2004. His K rate has declined to a pedestrian 6.22/9IP. His hit rate has steadily climbed as well. In addition to his first ever trips to the DL. Is Zambrano worth the huge contract he received? Absolutely not. Much like Sabathia, Zambrano routinely appeared among the league leaders in pitcher abuse points."

I agree that Sabathia simply won't dominate the way he did in Milwaukee, primarily because he's going to show some wear and tear next season. The guy threw 200 innings once in his first six full seasons, and then has thrown 250+ in his past two. And while he's obviously hit that point where he's a far different, and better, pitcher than he was 5 years ago, that kind of short term wear and tear has to do something to his effectiveness.

"Fielder can stay in Milwaukee. I'm thinking the Twins and Brewers need to work something out for JJ Hardy. Perhaps, Nick Blackburn and a couple other younger arms for Hardy."

I feel like Milwaukee could get a better centerpiece than Nick Blackburn. He had a solid year, but he'll be 27 next season, and his peripherals numbers weren't that impressive. For a top young shortstop, assuredly the Brewers could do better. If the Twins were willing to do Slowey for Hardy though, then I'm sure the Brewers would be very interested.

citron1616 - "For the last time, CC does not want to play for the Yankees." You made it seem as if we weren't allowed to talk about it and unless you are secretly CC Sabathia, I don't believe you have any idea, despite what you read second and third hand.

By the way, anyone who thinks CC turns down $30M just to be able to bat every 5th day is crazy...

"But realistically, I don't think the Twins would even be anywhere close to considering trading Blackburn or Slowey. Both are extremely cheap, are under control for quite some time, and kept a "rebuilding team" in the thick of things for the entire season. I don't think JJ Hardy is going to lead to more team wins than either one of those starters would.

But I sure would love if the Twins would consider a deal such as that."

I wasn't saying that the Twins would ever do that kind of deal, I was just saying that I doubt the Brewers would move Hardy for Blackburn. I was just saying that the Brewers could likely do better.

As for the Twins, I think their offense will be pretty good either way. A core of Mauer, Morneau, Young, Kubel, Span, Gomez, and Casilla is damn good. They just need a solid SS (like, ahem, Jason Bartlett..) and a good 3B and they'll be set to contend.

The Twins are in an awesome position long term.

I'll just clarify one more time that I think moving Kevin Slowey would be a mistake. He posted a solid 102 ERA+ in 160 innings, and his K/BB ratio in 2008 was awesome (124 K, 23 BB). If he can continue to display such good control, he should be a damn good pitcher even next season.

CC will stay a Brewer! Why wouldnt he turn down 30$ million to bad every 5th day. He said he wants a good place for his family and the Brewers offer that and he loved Milwaukee. I am pretty sure he doesnt need money that much, i think he is living pretty comfortable!

I think if the Brewers do sign Sabathia, the focus should be on trading Fielder, not Hardy. Hardy's numbers and glove can easily translate to 3B, with Escobar taking over at short. Even if Escobar is a bit slow to take to big league pitching, his glove will save a ton of runs and Sabathia could be positioned ahead of him in the lineup during his starts to get a bit more power and do the 2 lead off man thing.

"Sabathia just seems far smoother; less stress in a high stress action."

You are right. Sabathia is not a max effort pitcher and that is what allows him to throw more pitches and more innings than your average guy.

"The Yankees are going to offer him 4 year and $130M?"

CC turned down a 4 year extension with Cleveland because he wanted a 5th year and Johan money. so the Yankees are probably going to offer 5 or 6 years and between $23-$25 mil.

"There is not enough of a difference between the two to say that Z is a max effort pitcher and CC is not. CC actually throws a little bit harder...and I really don't think this point is valid."

It's the difference between mechanics/delivery. Because CC is so damn huge, he can hit 96 with little effort. Seems pretty important for anyone interested in signing him.

Cleveland offered 4/80. Big difference between that and 4/100. Although I do agree that Sabathia will likely hold out for 5-6 years. But if he takes four years then he can get a new long term contract when he's 32, rather than 33 or 34.

add an opt out clause after the 4th year?

its nothing more than to further entice him. 6 years at top dollar with an opt out after 4 so if he wants he could get a new deal to finish out his career. or if something bad like a big time injury were to happen he still has the security of the 2 extra years.

The '4 years then another contract' works for position players, but not pitchers. Pitchers are incredibly risky, and incredibly prone to injury. If CC takes $100 million, 4 years, he leaves $50 million on table with absolutely no guarantee that he will be healthy enough at the end of that contract to get $50 million for the next two years.

Besides, he'll only be 34 by the end of a 6 year contract - not exactly the end of his playing days.

Pitchers love guaranteed years. Teams hate giving them out.

And the only way I see an opt-out working these days, after seeing how it only hurts teams, is if it were mutual. Meaning, either side can enable it.

well the organizational benefit is that you get the front line ace youve been begging for. you go with what you know and hes been a stud with no health issues.

There have been a lot of guys with easy motions that subsequently have to go under the knife. Regardless of body structure and motion, the best scouting tool you can use to assess future health for a pitcher is pitch counts, innings, days rest, etc.

My basic point is I wouldn't give out a massive contract to a guy with this type of workload history. It's just proven to be a bad idea more times than not. He's been throwing a lot of innings since he was 19 and I've never seen a pitcher get driven as hard as Sabathia was at the end of last season. All sorts of red flags pop up on this one.

I have two words for anyone who thinks a low effort delivery assures good health:

Mark. Prior.

The guy was a scouts dream with unreal stuff and what was considered the perfect mechanics.

Look at 'em now..

Right, so who is to say which mechanics ensure good durability? Everyone thought Prior had perfect mechanics and it turned out everyone was wrong. I guess this doesn't apply so much to guys who have been in the majors for 8 seasons, but I was just saying..

But i'm no doctor.

Scribble: Even though it was only 10 years or so ago, the availability in internet video probably assures a guy won't be missed on as badly as Prior again. Before, I imagine scouts were doing a good majority of the analysis; now there are more independent people with backgrounds in kinesiology who do this stuff for websites or just fun. I have to think someone would have caught it. Of course, thats not to say CC can't get hurt, just that good mechanics help to mitigate it as much as someone making an unnatural, high stress motion can.

Where is all this coming from. I hear how CC doesnt care about money just living in LA. Didnt he not take Clevelands offer because he wanted more money and years. Im not saying hes definently going to the Yankees but there is a chance. The Brewers have a 0% chance of signing CC. That 25 million would be better off maybe getting Orlando Hudson and a starter. Than trade Weeks for a reliever in some sort of deal. Or they could use 12 mill for Fuentes and 13 mil for a starter.

"That 25 million would be better off maybe getting Orlando Hudson and a starter. "

If the Brewers can't land a #1-2 type guy, they really shouldn't sign a starter. They have more than enough internal options to fill out the back of that rotation, they just need that guy to form a 1-2 punch with Gallardo.

And, why the hell do you sign Orlando? Complete waste of money. Live with Weeks at 2B or platoon him.

If CC is there, one of Cameron, Fielder, or Hardy is gone.

"I hear how CC doesnt care about money just living in LA. Didnt he not take Clevelands offer because he wanted more money and years."

There's a huge difference between 4/80 (Cleveland's offer) and something like 4/100.

Seth McClung needs to be the Closer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guys, it's time to understand that Milwaukee is a player. The brewers are constantly working on marketing, someething not done before Mark Arrived as owner. Have you seen Packer AND Badger merchandise sales. If you think for one second that CC will slip away from the brewers you are mistaken. CC also became good friends with Ryan Braun, and secretly I think Ryan was helping out management by digging into CC's brain to see what would work to keep him in a brewer uniform. Remember Ryan Braun said, "sure I could have waited and got more money somewhere else, but what can't I buy with 47 million dollars?" This will ring true to CC, who has been hitting restaurants in the west suburbs telling people that he wants to stay in milwaukee. Friendships and Championships mean more than money to some guys. And CC has his best friend here in reliver David Riske, his minor league roommate. Also CC has enrolled his kids in school here. His wife loves the city and wants good schools for their kids ( something you don't get in la la land). All in all I think the deal will be done before Mccain beats Obama Tuesday.