Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

Why find a closer? Solomen Torres did a good job. A 3.49 with 28 saves is descent. If I were the Brewers I would look at getting a starter instead.

You are right yankfan1. Torres has a club option on 2009, like 3.7 million, but hard to see the Brewers not picking it up. They still could see what Florida wants for kevin Gregg, but he will win more than that in arbitration probably.

Mike Rivera could probably back up for another team at the same time... about 10 starts last year.

You want Kendall's .650 OPS in the lineup EVERY DAY. I can't stress that enough. EVERY DAY.

Torres did not do a very good job this year. Sure, he recorded 28 saves with an ERA of 3.49 but he blew 7 saves and was absolutely horrible down the stretch and could barely be counted on to get an out. Torres worked out well for what he was; a replacement closer because Gagne couldn't get it done.

As for the rest of team, I don't see any way that the Brewers can justify bringing back Mike Cameron. Sure, I appreciate the production he was able to give this team but his .243 AVG and 142 K's in 120 games is certainly something that would be hard to replace. Tony Gwynn Jr. is good for at least .243 (I actually envision him at a .270-.280 guy), with a lot less K's, he has a great glove and is capable of playing CF, will steal more bases and costs about $9M less than Mike Cameron. This seems like a no-brainer to me. Yes, Cameron brings veteran leadership and 20 or so HR a season but the Brewers aren't short on homerun hitters and Cam's veteren presence isn't worth the amount of cash required.

As for the rest, I see Capuano non-tendered with the possibility of signing a minor league contract but a guy coming off a horrible 2007 season followed by his second TJ surgery is certainly not going to get $3.75M if it doesn't have to be given to him.

My estimations leave the Brewers around $64M after arbitration raises.

Why on earth, why on fricking earth would we decline Cameron's option and trade for melky????

Tony Gwynn Jr is a poor CF option but at least he is free.
Cameron at 10M is an absolute bargain. Great Defence and a good hitter for his position.

$10M for Cam is a bargain?!? Whatever it is you're smokin', I'm almost certain it isn't legal.

What is it about Cameron's .243 AVG (.224 at Miller Park), his .331 OBP (.313 at Miller Park), his 142 K's or his .245 AVG RISP that makes him worth $10M? What did he do last year that Tony Gwynn Jr. couldn't do?

I'm not saying this out of favor for Gwynn. I actually hope the Brewers go out and get somebody with the extra cash they have that can play in the OF but Cameron simply cannot come back to this team. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy but not enough to give his limited production $10M.

Oh, you mean Bill Hall and his .225 AVG? No, Bill Hall is one of the worst offensive 3B in the game and his 17 errors hardly qualify him as a third baseman either.

On Torres - I think the guy did fine, especially considering just how hard Yost rode him. Torres threw over 80 innings this year, which is a ton for a modern closer.

"You want Kendall's .650 OPS in the lineup EVERY DAY. I can't stress that enough. EVERY DAY."

Kendall probably played 20 too many games, which tired him out, but his value goes far beyond his hitting. He finally figured out how to throw out runners and is excellent behind the plate and with a staff. Further, his career AVG and OBP are so good that you can't help but think that he still has baseball left in him.

"Is Bill Hall not a viable 3B option? Just wondering since Tim mentioned 3B as something the crew needs to figure out."

Hall has loads of talent, but he was so incredibly bad against RHP (even worse than his career platoon split, which isn't much) that you can't justify throwing him out there every day.

"As far as their closer/starter needs, and the Fielder/Hardy issue, my vote is to trade Hardy along with a decent prospect to the A's for Street & Duchscherer."

I see a Street/Smith/prospect deal for Fielder or Hardy more likely.

I don't think that Beane will trade his only veteran in the starting rotation. Besides, if the Brewers want to keep payroll down, there are good young, cheap alternatives.

"Amongst CF's 109 is golden....7th best in the NL....."

7th best in the NL is not golden, that's middle of the pack.

And I'm not arguing that Cameron isn't a good CF, but the Brewers franchise cannot afford $10M for 1 year of his services. How does look to the other young players who deserve the big contracts but the Brewers continue to go year to year with them, renewing them at close to minimum value only to sign a guy in the twilight of his career. 2 of the 3 guys ahead of him on your OPS leaderboard are currently without a contract.

Cameron worth $10M? Maybe, but not for this franchise. If the Brewers are expecting a payroll between $90M-$100M, how can you justify spending 10-12% of team payroll on this guy?

Kendall is not bouncing back.
For the last 3 years he has authored a slowly declining batting line, the likes of which we saw this year.

Kendall does provide a lot of value in terms of throwing out runners and handling a staff, though having a nice backup that plays 50 or so games would be nice.

No, K's aren't the only thing to look at but one of the Brewer's biggest downfalls this season was the strikeout. They were one of 9 teams that K'ed over 1200 times. Anytime you have the chance to reduce those combined with adding a good chunk of money back into contract negotions with CC or any one of the other young stars, it has to be done.

There is one black hole in the Brewers offence:
Bill Hall.

You realise that Cam slugged only .030 lower than Prince?

Cam is insanely valuable, 10M is a bargain.

Here's my plan,

Using Hall & Gwynn as the spare outfielders, exercise Cameron's option; sign Derek Lowe & Casey Blake as free agents; keep Fielder & Hardy 'til mid-season to evaluate whether Escobar and/or Gamel are ready for The Show.

With Lowe on the team, maybe they could use Manny Parra as the closer to start off the season?

"Street + Smith or Eveland for either Hardy or Fielder. Does that sound Fair?"

That is an absolutely atrocious deal for either of them. No chance the Brewers do that.

And can we please stop talking about Tony Gwynn Jr. as a viable option in CF? The guy has 242 at bats in the majors with a .248/.300/.298 line. He's terrible. His third time in AAA this year he hit .275/.328/.331. I don't want that guy anywhere near the Brewers lineup, much less leading off.

"With Lowe on the team, maybe they could use Manny Parra as the closer to start off the season?"

Using Parra as a closer would be stupid. He's much more valuable as a starter.

Just get Cain, do it.

It would make sense to move one of Hardy or Escobar to fill the need at third base, moving Hardy to 3rd base diminishes his value. Maybe Kouzmanoff plus Meredith or Bell from the Padres for Hardy. Not sure what else is out there as far as third basemen.

I think CC is a genuine guy (the genuine are out there lol) and will go where his heart says, not where he'll find the most green. he knows hes getting paid no matter what.

unless i'm wildly misinformed, the Brewers will owe Braun aprx. $8MM next year thanks to that extension he signed at the start of the year

"Reading Ken Rosenthal's article about Boston and their team makeup (racially) cemented some thoughts I've been having about the Brewers."

For those that think Rosenthal is off-base, you should re-evaluate your position. Boston, for all its great qualities, has a terrible reputation for racism.

"Kouzmanoff=Branyan"

Wrong. Branyan will actually take a walk.

Crede? Right handed, poor obp & injury prone. Dumb idea, never happen.

"How about Peavy for Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Green?"

The Brewers would be far from happy with a deal such as this. Jeffress is apparently making great strides since putting down the bong, Alcides Escobar is the Brewers future leadoff hitter as early as 2009 and will be a perrennial gold-glove candidate/winner and Taylor Green is the Brewers' only 3B prospect since Gamel won't be allowed to play there because of his glove.

These kids could all be opening day starters 2010 and there isn't any way the Brewers can afford to give that away.

The latest news from the Padres is that they want 2 pitching prospects and a near MLB-ready CF. Well, the Brewers have the near-ready CF they desire in Tony Gwynn (not to mention that SD desperately wants the son of their legendary player back in their city) and the Brewers have a couple of pitching prospects in Chris Narveson (LHP, invited to ST),Erasmo Ramirez (likely a future closer that the Padres will need when Hoffmann leaves) and Joe Bateman (who put up a 2.09 ERA between AAA and AA last season).

Reyes and Ellis? Why would the Brewers be interested in an oft-injured reliever and Ellis actually managed to have a lower AVG than Weeks last season (.233-.234). Not to mention that Ellis seems to have a tough time staying healthy.

I was just thinking low risk.

Mark Ellis had 117 AB's in 2008, which is actually the smallest amount since 2002, his rookie year. He's hardly a risk, and he'd be solid veteran insurance to back up a letdown guy like Weeks.

I also figured Reyes would be a cheap, $1 million or less signing with upside. That kind of deal has worked well for a lot of guys.

i meant wouldn't be against trading for a cf however.

"Do you know anything about the Brewers, prospects or baseball in general?"

First of all, the definition of a prospect is somebody having the apparent probability of advancement, success, or profit. Age most certainly doesn't make a prospect what they are. Sure, age is a valued thing, but it isn't a requirement.

Don't get down on me because you're a moron. I don't remember anywhere in my post saying that this would get it done, I simply mentioned the Brewers' only other pitching prospects outside of Jeffress.

"Blalock can't stay healthy. Salome is one of the top catching prospects in baseball. Easy no for the Brewers."

And you're the one telling me I don't know anything? Salome is not one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball; nowhere near actually. He is not very good behind the plate and can't seem to throw out runners. Yes, he won the PCL batting title but scouts are baffled by how a swing so fundamentally awful could yield such results. Most scouts don't see his swing translating into any notable MLB succes. He also has a very difficult time with breaking pitches; very similar to Cerrano from Major League (hit fastball very far...)

Catchers in the Brewers organization equally likely to be this team's future behind the plate include Lou Palmissano, Johnathon Lucoy, possibly Vinny Rottino and don't forget the most likely of all, Brett Lawrie. The Brewers took him with their first round pick in this year's draft and expect him to make his way through the minors in 2 years or even less.

"Here is the MLE of what Gwynn did in AAA.
0.242 Average 0.296 OBP 0.279 Slg 0.575 OPS 0.283 BABIP"

I can't stand anybody who uses those estimated stats seriously in a argument. In the last 3 years in AAA, Gwynn has hit .276, .286 and .300. He may not be a great option and most certainly isn't any type of long term solution but the Brewers are not the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. They cannot afford to spend $10M a season on a guy with marginal production.

Do you know what Mike Cameron's minor league AVG and OBP were? .260/.344. For the price difference, Gwynn deserves a shot.

"First of all, the definition of a prospect is somebody having the apparent probability of advancement, success, or profit."

Right. And the probability of 32 and 28 year old career minor leaguers with fringe stuff having success in the majors isn't very likely. Narveson had a 5.42 ERA in the minors last year as a 26 year old. The chances he succeeds in the majors is also very small.

"Age most certainly doesn't make a prospect what they are. Sure, age is a valued thing, but it isn't a requirement."

Yeah, actually age does make a prospect. Is anybody going to be really impressed with experienced 32 and 28 year old minor leaguers getting out 21-23 year olds with less experience? Not likely.

"I simply mentioned the Brewers' only other pitching prospects outside of Jeffress."

No, if you would've mentioned the other pitching prospects outside of Jeffress you would've named names like Alex Periard, Evan Anundsen, Zach Braddock, Omar Aguilar, Luis Pena, Efrain Nieves, Cody Scarpetta, Cody Adams, Jake Odorizzi, Seth Lintz, R.J. Seidel, Donovan Hand or Evan Frederickson. Not freakin' Chris Narveson or Erasmo Ramirez.

Of course some of the names I mentioned aren't eligible to be traded. But you can't seriously tell me with a straight face that Chris Narveson, Erasmo Ramirez and Joe Bateman are our "other pitching prospects besides Jeffress." Then call me a moron when I question your knowledge about the Brewers and prospects in general.

"Salome is not one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball; nowhere near actually."

Name better ones. There's Wieters, Posey, possibly Montero. Then who?

"He is not very good behind the plate and can't seem to throw out runners."

That's why he'll be in the minors. Working on his defense. He's got the arm (70 on the 20-80 scale), he just needs to work on his footwork.

"Yes, he won the PCL batting title"

See. Now I know you don't know anything. He won the Southern League batting title. Not the Pacific Coast League batting title.

Josh Kalk of THT went down and watched Huntsville's prospects and had a report on Salome among others.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/seeing-stars/

"He also has a very difficult time with breaking pitches; very similar to Cerrano from Major League (hit fastball very far...)"

If that were true at all he would swing and miss and strikeout a lot more than he does.

"Lou Palmissano"

Palmisano is about fifth on the catching depth chart in the minors behind Salome, Lucroy, Lawrie and Fryer.

"possibly Vinny Rottino"

Yeah, that .705 OPS in the hitter friendly PCL as a 28 year old is really going to impress the Brewers organization.

"The Brewers took him with their first round pick in this year's draft and expect him to make his way through the minors in 2 years or even less."

No, Lawrie himself expects to make it to the majors that quickly, not the Brewers. It's going to take him three years at least to reach the majors. He barely has any experience catching, he has a lot to work on.

Heres my Ideas for the offseason. I dont wanna make any long term commitments and I dont wanna give up any of our top prospects like Gamel, Escobar and Jeffress. So I would sign Schilling to pitch at midseason and I would take my chances with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, McClung and Suppan.

With our pitching being a big question mark I would try to shore up my offense to makeup for the problem. I would look into a deal for Brian Roberts focused around a Rickie Weeks then I would look into a trade with the Rangers for Blalock who would platoon with Bill Hall who is virtually untradeable.

2B Roberts S
SS Hardy R
LF Braun R
1B Fielder L
RF Hardy R
3B Blalock L
CF Cameron R
C Kendall R

SP Gallardo
SP Parra
SP Bush
SP Suppan
SP McClung

RP Torres
RP Riske
RP Villanueva
RP Stetter
RP Coffey
RP Dillard
RP Another Lefty maybe bring back Shouse even though Id rather let him go because hes a type B.

Just get through the year is what I say. Rely on our offense this year till midseason reinforcements arrive and hopefully our pitching holds up. Maybe target another reliever or two as well.

Nice

5 teams left

Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox and Rays

worst record(Dodgers) next or waiting for a AL champ?

On the Hardy/Fielder/A's trade "ideas"... Let's just say, it will cost top talent (as in someone with higher than 4/5 starter upside) along with another solid piece. Obviously, Cahill shouldn't be traded IMO, and I'd be hesitant to trade Anderson (depends on the rest of that package.

And...Peavy will cost guys like Jeffries, Gamel, Escobar, etc. unless the Padres go for one of Hardy/Fielder (which they probably won't, since the Pads won't be contending for a while). Let's get that straight.

Gwynn doesn't deserve anything until he proves he can hit. Gwynn has not proved he can hit like Cameron can.

If you replace Cameron with Gwynn, Gwynn will net you a negative in the wins department. You can't ignore the MLE stat. AAA pitching is nothing compared to MLB pitching.

Gwynn will have lower stats than what he put up in AAA that means he is a worse option than Cameron. Not just a little bit worse but a huge difference where it is wise to pick up Cameron's option.

Gwynn does not deserve anything.

KLaw & you are dead wrong on this one. JJ is a fine defensive SS. Sure his range isn't the best due to lack of speed but he has excellent hands & a strong & highly accurate arm. The last is very important with the Brewers current 1st baseman.

Catchers in the Brewers organization equally likely to be this team's future behind the plate include Lou Palmissano, Johnathon Lucoy, possibly Vinny Rottino and don't forget the most likely of all, Brett Lawrie. The Brewers took him with their first round pick in this year's draft and expect him to make his way through the minors in 2 years or even less.

vinny rottino, angle solome batted over 320 last year in AA of course he is better than all the guys u nentioned except for maybe Brett Lawrie who could play any position on the field so he might no even play catcher