D'Backs Rumors: Hudson, Dunn, Johnson, Rauch

the D'Backs can offer Dunn arbitration, and if he cant find a contract offer he likes he can accept? he made $13 mil in 2008. im guessing he would get around the same by going to arbitration.
i havnt seen much in the way of interest for Dunn(based on what he would be looking for) and word is he is looking for a $100 million dollar contract. IF he cant find a suitable contract offer could he not just accept arbitration for 2009 and become a free agent after next season where more teams could be interested?

Picking up Rauch's option is an easy call. While he struggled a bit at the end of the year, his overall 2008 numbers suggest a big raise, especially since he is the de facto closer without Lyon, who sucks anyway.

And another thing, their goes the pitcher I wanted Braves to sign.

To the person who said Dunn is NOT a one tool player---WRONG!!!! Walks are NOT considered a tool.

Dunn does NOT hit for a high average.

Dunn does NOT steal bases or run the bases well.

Dunn does NOT play Defense well.

Dunn does NOT have a strong or accurate throwing arm.

Those are four of the five tools scouts use to judge players and Dunn is below average in all four areas.

The ONLY thing Dunn does well is hit Home Runs and even THAT is questionable once you get him OUT of Great American Small Park.

Face it, Bill James said that GASP inflates Left Handed hitters power numbers by 27%.
In five of the seven full seasons Dunn played in Cincinnati, he hit MORE Home Runs at Home then he did on the Road. Earlier this year, I added it up and he had hit 56% of his HR's at Home and 44% on the Road.

For a guy who is supposed to have "all that power" how is that possible? Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell are almost 50-50 as far as where they hit their Home Runs. Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman hit MORE of their Home Runs on the Road.

Before Dunn was traded to the D-backs, he was hitting a Home Run once in every 11.09 At Bats and was on pace to hit 47 Home Runs. Once he left the hitter paradise in Cincinnati and went to Arizona and started playing in larger parks, his HR per At Bat total dropped to about once in every 18. Based on 525 At Bats over a full season, it would mean Dunn would only hit 29 Home Runs.

Because of his low Batting Average and his low BA with RISP, Dunn hits 40 HR's a year and yet barely drives in 100 RBI's. Now, if his HR total were to drop to 29 a year, just think how low his RBI total would be?

As far as Dunn getting walked a lot and it being a good thing, that is laughable.

Dunn is a middle of the order hitter and gets paid a LOT to drive in Runs. He does NOT get paid a LOT to Walk.

Over the last eight years, I do not know how many times I have seen Dunn take a HITTABLE Strike (which was over the outer third of the plate) with runners on base and then ultimately get Walked. This drove me totally insane.

With his power and hitting in GASP, if he were to swing and connect on those Pitches, his HR and RBI totals would be MUCH higher. Dunn SHOULD have been hitting 50 or mroe HR''s a year and driving in 130 or more RBI's. Inshort, he SHOULD have been putting up Ryan Howard type numbers.

Of course, Howard DOES swing at outside Pitches and DOES hit the ball to the opposite field for HR's because THAT is where most of his HR's go- either to Left or Center Field.

Howard is NOT strictly a pull hitter. That is why he has won Home Run and RBI titles and THAT is why he has won an MVP Award while Dunn has not accomplished ANY of those things. Oh yeah, Howard has ALSO been on WINNING teams, has gone to the Play-Offs and now, WON A RING.

Dunn, on the other hand, has NEVER been on a winning team. He has NEVER won an MVP Award (his highest finish was 26th). He has NEVER won a HR or RBI title or a Silver Slugger Award. He has only been on ONE All- Star team and THAT was as a reserve.

Even stinky teams get one representative, so why have the All Star Managers picked OTHER players from the Reds to represent Cincinati and why have fans voted OTHER players from the Reds to represent the team?

REAL RBI guys are NOT up at the plate looking to take a Walk, they are up there looking for something to drive. Because Dunn is LAZY, he has narrowed his area of success down to a very small hitting area which is between his upper thigh and belt and from the middle of the plate in.
Because of this, he only has success with Fast Balls and Change Ups and only when he pulls the ball. If he had continued to WORK at his hitting, he could have continued to be able to hit the ball to all fields. But just like the Quarterback situation at the University of Texas, instead of WORKING hard, he took the EASY way out.

During his first two years in the Majors, he hit the ball to all fields fairly regularly. Since 2003, he has become a strictly pull hitter. With his power, this is a STUPID thing to do and it HURT the Reds.

If a Pitcher can consistently throw a Strike over the outer third of the plate, Dunn will walk back to the dugout, bat in hand, after having Struck Out yet again. Also, if a Pitcher can throw Sliders to Dunn, he will take that same walk back to the dugout.

So, because Dunn takes so many HITTABLE PITCHES, it hurts his ability to get Hits and drive in Runs. Thus it puts the onus of driving in Runs on the batter or batters hitting behind him. Now, if these guys were so great at driving in Runs, they would NOT be batting behind Dunn but, instead, in front of him. They would ALSO not be getting paid less than Dunn.

Also, when Dunn gets Walked, he is pretty much an anchor at First Base. There is hardly any chance he is going to Steal Second or score from First on a Double. Plus, unlike Manny Ramirez or Albert Pujols, when Dunn gets Walked, it is usually because the Pitcher can not throw Strikes over the outer edge of the plate.

In 2008, Dunn led all of MLB in Walks with 122 but was only tied for 14th in Intentional Bases on Balls with 13.

Pujols had 104 Walks, 34 of which were IBB's (he led all of MLB) while Ramirez had 87 Walks, 24 of which were IBB's (second in all of MLB).

So, Pitchers are NOT scared of Dunn, they just can't control their Pitches over the outer third of the plate. If they could, Dunn would hit about .200 and Strike Out well over 200 times. Which is going to start happening in a couple of years when he turns into Richie Sexson.

Tmar,

SMART teams will remember that a few years ago, Bill James (the SABR guru) said that Richie Sexson and Adam Dunn were "old skill" players and thus their skills would diminish earlier and go down faster than guys with "young" skills.

Look what happened to Sexson after Seattle gave him a big dollar, long term contract. His Offense fell off a cliff and they had a REAL hard time getting rid of him.

With younger GM's in the Majors more than ever, they read things like that and remember them.

Heck, why do you think the Red Sox traded for Jason Bay instead of Adam Dunn? Because Theo Epstein is the GM and Bill James WORKS for the Red Sox.

In one of Peter Gammons stories or blogs earlier this year, (right after Ortiz was injured and the thinking was the Red Sox might need to go out and get another player to replace him) he said the Red Sox were MORE interested in Josh Willingham of the Marlins than Dunn. So, what does THAT tell you about Dunn?

Dunn does get struck out a lot. In his career, he struck out at average in every 3 to 4 ABs. Since he left the Reds, his AVG, OBP, SLG., OPS, and nearly everything else went down to career lows.

Various unsubstantiated accounts have implied there might be another, bigger difference between Sexson and Dunn.

From Keith Law's chat last week.
"Q: Keith, what are the other tools you look for in a position player other than the basic five?
A: Plate discipline. Pitch recognition. Instincts (fielding and baserunning). General feel for the game/game awareness. Clutchiness. Scrappiness."

I think a lot of scouts, new and old, recognize that the 5 tools ignore a very, very important skill, one that has proven very difficult to teach.

I'd think they would be happy if Dunn took arbitration. He is a butcher in the field but he has enough power and OBP to offset it and be worth 3 wins over replacement.

AA- a team full of Adam Dunn comperables offensively would score a little over 7 runs a game, or about 1200 runs in 162 games. I'd take him on my team any day, whether he likes baseball or not.

"AA- a team full of Adam Dunn comperables offensively would score a little over 7 runs a game, or about 1200 runs in 162 games. I'd take him on my team any day, whether he likes baseball or not."

I would love to see how that would work in the real world, especially against left handed pitching.

Aubrey Huff is really, really inconsistent. And, because of his great season last year, the O's will rightfully ask for a really nice prospect.

But, it would be a good idea for the DBacks.

While I certainly would not call myself an Adam Dunn fan, I think both camps here are taking the argument to extremes. He is what he is and that's all he'll ever be: a big hulking slugger who- when able to make contact- hits it a country mile and who also posts excellent OBP's...always good for run production. Of course, when he doesn't slam a dinger or draw a walk, he's generally going to strike out. Until scientists figure out a way to harness that power for wind energy, it's going to infuriate fans and lead to debates like the one here. Why? Because, like most home run hitters, he's vastly overpaid (or soon will be).

I have no problem with ctownboy's characterization of baseball's economic climate and such and so forth, but he forgets one unassailable baseball truth...someone's ALWAYS stupid enough to overpay. Always! Remember, Carlos SILVA got mega bucks last off season. From Richie Sexton to Carl Pavano- who's in line to do it again (to a lesser degree) this winter- to...well, the list is endless; and the same is true for each and every one. Common sense said one thing, reality said another. If you think our current economic crisis is going to change that- at least this coming year- I suggest you remember who it is doling out these deals.

I personally think that the chances are slim- like 'actress on a show about spoiled teenagers on the CW' slim- that Dunn accepts arbitration to remain a D'back. Furthermore, when you consider the relative discount the 'backs would be getting in such a case, I'm sure it's a risk they're willing to take. Contrary to some of the above posts, Dunn cannot scan the market before deciding whether to accept or decline- at least, that's how I understand it. When Arizona offers, he has X amount of time to accept or decline. If he declines, then and only then is he a free agent...and able to discuss offers with other teams. A team that contacts him before such a time risks whatever penalties MLB chooses to levy. Of course, Dunn's reps will almost certainly assess the market and potential suitors to provide their client with an informed projection- what he can expect as a free agent- but in the end, that's little more than an educated guess. There IS a measure of risk involved. But that brings us back to basic baseball economics and the reality that someone always overpays. Frankly, in these post-steroid days of muted power numbers, I would expect Dunn to garner considerable attention...and the money to match. We'll see, I suppose.

Did the Reds make the right move? Tough to say. Still, I think if you're a D'backs fan, you have to love the way Josh Byrnes has positioned the franchise for the next...decade or so. And that's AFTER you account for the dubious decision to deal Carlos Quentin, but sign Eric Byrnes to a lucrative long term contract.

With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew- all under 30; some considerably so- currently contributing as starters, Max Scherzer poised to join Haren and Webb as a frontline stud, and Jarrod Parker a few short years from joining them in the rotation, 'zona is already one of the youngest teams in baseball and, in the NL West, they've already developed into contenders. The playoff experience should only help them moving forward. Now, with these three free agents- two likely Type A's and a B- a system that has been among the best in baseball at scouting and development over the past few years, gets a windfall of picks in what's shaping up to be a decent draft class. Basically, in one fell swoop, they can, potentially, rebuild a farm system drained by its successes...and do so without negatively impacting their prospects for the upcoming season (at least not considerably). If they choose wisely, mixing quick moving collegians with high upside prep stars, the 'backs will essentially position themselves to contend in the NL West for the next decade or more. Even as the current crop of youngsters and young stars age and decline, the composition of this team is such that a transition of talent is not only possible but probable. As an outsider with no rooting stake in the franchise, I'm consistently surprised by the lack of attention given to this front office, which I believe ranks among the two or three best in baseball. To build a winner is a feat; to build a consistent winner- and to do so without the benefit of a Boston/New York budget- is pure genius.