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« Edmonds Considers Retirement | Main | Olney's Latest: Sabathia, Ellis, Embree, Giles »
While Japanese players are eligible for Rookie of the Year honors, they often come with much higher expectations than rookies. As evidence, scapegoat-du-jour Kosuke Fukudome has 3 years, $38MM left on his contract. That is a large commitment to a first year player who struggled more like a traditional rookie than delivering like a high-profile Japanese import.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says what to do with Fukudome is at the top of the Cubs offseason to do list. Says Rogers,
"According to scouts, Fukudome would have no value if Hendry tried to shop him. He isn't going to go back quietly and resume his career with the Chunichi Dragons, walking away from his deal with the Cubs. That would send a terrible signal as teams around the majors become more aggressive in pursuing players from Asia. One scout interviewed Saturday suggested a course of action that could be tough to swallow.
'He has to go to the minors,' the scout said. 'He has to get rid of all those habits, pulling out on pitches, collapsing. He'll never hit the way he's hitting now, and this is a tough place to work out your problems. Always has been.'"
Here we find the expected risk associated with giving large contracts to unproven commodities. It's obvious Fukudome needs to make adjustments to big league pitching; however, his contract prevents the club from treating him as they should: like a rookie.
Fukudome put up .257-.359-.379 with 10 homeruns, 25 doubles, and an underwhelming 58 RBI. With a career OBP just under .400 in Japan, disappointment lies primarily in his .359 OBP and the inability to adjust and remain the tablesetter he was in May. Fukudome finished with a stat line less than that of a $12.5MM player and more akin to a rookie. As Rogers points out, Jim Hendry might need to treat him like one.
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I can't beleive this guy was a starter in the all star game. He is probably the worst voted in starter in major league history.
Posted by: Bravesfanuc | October 05, 2008 at 10:18 AM
If the Cubs don't re-sign Edmonds (and they probably shouldn't), I think Fukudome should play CF next year. Then, the Cubs could either play DeRosa full-time in RF (with Fontenot at 2B) or pursue a FA like Abreu. Fukudome's contract won't get better, but his lack of power and run production would be better hidden in CF.
Posted by: jcarney23 | October 05, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Is there any way we can get rid of Soriano? I don't care what the stats say, I just can't make myself believe any longer that he's a net positive for the Cubs.
Posted by: Harry | October 05, 2008 at 10:50 AM
One of the biggest problems with Japanese imports is the hype. They're expected to be instant stars. It's like last year, the first bad outing Matsuzaka had people were crowing he was a huge flop.
It's like 10-15 years ago, Cubans players were fairly unknown so you'd hear people saying Cuban baseball could take on a MLB allstar team, scouts now believe Cuban ball is on average AA talent. Japanese baseball has similar issues, but not only that, the game has certain style differences. So yeah, Fukudome has holes in his swing because it worked in Japan. But pitchers caught on and you see a massive downfall, month by month. He should go to Iowa for a month, but odds are they'll just try to work things out in ST. But really, Fukudome doesn't deserve the blame for the Cubs collapse, frankly they sucked as a team against the Dodgers.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 05, 2008 at 11:02 AM
"Is there any way we can get rid of Soriano?"
Yes, but a few huge hurdles 1) He has a no-trade clause, 2) He's set to earn 18M when he's 38, last year of his contract 2014, and of course 3) why?
Soriano's real problem was pointed out on espn by Kurkjian, he became the default lead off hitter on a team without a lead off hitter. He's being misused. Well that and apparently he can't hit in the playoffs.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 05, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I agree there's no way to shop him and that the minors are what he needs. Fukudome has to stop leaving his back foot and nearly falling over every time he gets fooled by a pitch...
Posted by: mford | October 05, 2008 at 11:21 AM
"I can't beleive this guy was a starter in the all star game. He is probably the worst voted in starter in major league history."
I blame Eric Gagne. For giving up that 3 run homer in the first Cubs game of the season.
Posted by: Victor | October 05, 2008 at 11:25 AM
He is just a rookie. If a rookie wasn't meeting expectations, you'd send him to the minors. Send him to the minors to work out the kinks.
Bravesfanuc- Jason Varitek this year was worse.
The airport announcement was hilarious though. Bwahahahaha.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 05, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Fukudome=Kaz Matsui
He'll become a .290-.300 hitter with 10-15 hr power when he realizes MLB has bigger parks and better pitching. But until then half the HR's he hit in Japan will just be cans of corn here.
Posted by: spieldogg | October 05, 2008 at 12:54 PM
"Soriano's real problem was pointed out on espn by Kurkjian, he became the default lead off hitter on a team without a lead off hitter."
the problem is, he hits so much better when he's in the leadoff spot, for some reason. What about the possibility of signing Furcal to leadoff and play SS? You could move Soriano down to third (and thus, move down Double Play Derrek) and platoon Theriot/DeRosa/Fontenot at 2nd, with DeRosa/Fukudome in right, with Fukudome also getting some time in CF? Bring in Pie for defense in latter innings? Keep Reed Johnson to play in CF against the lefties?
SS- Furcal S
RF- DeRosa R
LF- Soriano R
3B- Ramirez R
CF- Fukudome L
1B- Lee R
C - Soto R
2B- Fontenot L
Bench
1B/RF Hoffpauir L
SS/2B Theriot R
C Blanco R
OF Johnson R
CF Pie L
Of course, I'd rather see somebody with more pop in the 5 hole, but I stuck in (an improved) Fukudome in there to break up all the righties. I don't know. Maybe I play too much baseball on XBox or something.
Posted by: BigBatsMcHellfire | October 05, 2008 at 01:47 PM
The Cubs problems go far beyond Fukudome. He isn't going to get better, and he is definitely not an Ichiro. Here's an idea for a trade that will help bolster the lineup for another collapse next postseason.
Giants Get
1B - Derrek Lee
SP - Carlos Zambrano
Cubs Get
SP - Tim Lincecum
SP - Barry Zito
And then the topper is that the Cubs sign Mark Teixeira in the offseason. Sounds good to me.
Posted by: Enzo | October 05, 2008 at 03:38 PM
The Cubs need to sign Furcal. I love Ryan Theriot, but he is not a good shortstop. He has a terrible arm, and doesnt really have good range. I think the cubs should move him to 2nd if they do sign furcal. And the Cubs also are going to need to see what their options are with soriano. I was thinking they can maybe propose a trade with the astros to trade soriano for carlos lee... even though they are in the same division and that is pretty rare. But the most important acquisition the cubs should do is get furcal.. even if they cubs still have soriano. Furcal is your prototypical lead off hitter. So if they got him there would be no controversy that soriano should bat lead off. This is what their 09 line up should look like
Rafael Furcal
Derrek Lee
Alfonso Soriano
Aramis Ramirez
Geovany Soto
Mark Derosa
Kosuke Fukudome
Ryan Theriot
i personally think D Lee would be a great 2 hitter, he doesnt have the 35+ homerun power any more but he can still hit for average with occasional power. which is what a 2 hitter should provide.
Posted by: erick | October 05, 2008 at 08:24 PM
Didn't they try #3-#5 for Soriano in Texas? Didn't seem to work out. Not saying it couldn't work if they tried again. Soriano is confounding. Great power, great speed, low on base and has some kind of Chuck Knoblauch disease when hitting in the middle of the lineup. Not good...
Posted by: toshiro | October 06, 2008 at 09:34 AM
Several teams and their scouting over evaluated Fukudome when he was in Japan, not just the Cubs. It's just we are stuck with him and have to get him turned around. I agree the minors is best, but that can of worms in ego and how it is handled is huge.
Other players that came from Cuba or Japan had at least a bigger impact on the game when they first came here, not just 2 months like Fukudome. At least not in a long time. Some of those players fizzled, some did well. Other than Fukudome (unless you count opening day), all in the last dozen years made some impact. I think teams might want to do more research before giving out millions and anoiting players before they earned it. As a Cub fan, even I was embarrased he made the all star team when I knew others were more deserving.
Posted by: studio179 | October 06, 2008 at 11:18 AM
"Giants Get
1B - Derrek Lee
SP - Carlos Zambrano
Cubs Get
SP - Tim Lincecum
SP - Barry Zito"
No. No effing way. I don't want Zito anywhere near the Cubs, and SF wouldn't take that deal anyway. They're not going to be competitive for a couple years. Why would they want Lee and Z next year?
In regards to putting Lee in the 2-hole, he hits into entirely too many double plays. That sounds like a good way to negate the leadoff man.
Posted by: BigBatsMcHellfire | October 06, 2008 at 11:58 AM
"If the Cubs don't re-sign Edmonds (and they probably shouldn't), I think Fukudome should play CF next year. Then, the Cubs could either play DeRosa full-time in RF (with Fontenot at 2B) or pursue a FA like Abreu. Fukudome's contract won't get better, but his lack of power and run production would be better hidden in CF."
How would CF "hide" Fukudome's lousy offense? What do you mean by this? If your batting sucks it sucks regardless of your position and all the fans will know it.
Posted by: BleedingBlue | October 06, 2008 at 01:51 PM
This is just a floater, so don't try to kill me for suggesting it: If the Scrubs have to keep Lee because of his NTC (like they have to keep Ramirez, Soriano, and Fukudome--thanks, Hendry!), why not have him bat lead-off? Lee has essentially become a singles hitter (w/the occasional double), and, for some reason, is no longer physically capable of hitting homers. Indeed, I believe Lee has the most hits on the Cubs. Plus he's Mr. GIDP. Why not put him in a position that will give him as many AB's as possible, and that gets him out of DP danger. Putting him lead-off would also prevent what seems to so often happen (at least from what I've seen), where Lee gets a single or double w/two outs. Ramirez then comes up and gets a single, but then the No. 5 guy comes up and ends the inning. It would be nice if Lee's hits could be rewarded with at least a sac grounder or fly.
Posted by: BleedingBlue | October 06, 2008 at 02:02 PM
"Soriano's real problem was pointed out on espn by Kurkjian, he became the default lead off hitter on a team without a lead off hitter. He's being misused. Well that and apparently he can't hit in the playoffs."
Soriano's real prob is that he really is only a star when it comes to hitting 3-star pitching and below. When it comes to hitting 4-star pitchers, the type one sees in the playoffs, he sucks. He's a good guy to help get a team into the playoffs, but he can't be counted on to win in the playoffs. Plus, from what I've seen of him, the guy is just a space cadet. Soriano routinely gets thrown out making stupid running decisions or getting picked off (or momentarily taking his eyes off the ball in the outfield and dropping it). If the Cubs use him next year, they should insist on him taking some medication for ADD.
What the Cubs really need is some consistent left-handed power (a guy who can hit good pitching). Are there any good lefty bats on the free-agent market this off season? If so, they should do all they can to get such a player, because w/out him they ain't going anywhere w/the roster they currently have.
Posted by: BleedingBlue | October 06, 2008 at 02:18 PM
In response to the Comment by Enzo....I am a major Cub fan, that happened to live in Dallas this past year. The Rangers were thrilled to death to trade Mark Tiexeira. It is my understanding that Tiexeira while a great player is like a cancer in the clubhouse. A festering, ooozing cancer. Why do you think Atlanta dumped him. Not because he can't play, because he's a great player....he's a cancer.
Posted by: LaJoie | October 06, 2008 at 02:33 PM
Wow, this is quite an interesting thread. I'm still kind of numb about this, being in shock from the AA baseball I watched out of the Cubs in the first round...
"Soriano's real problem was pointed out on espn by Kurkjian, he became the default lead off hitter on a team without a lead off hitter. He's being misused. Well that and apparently he can't hit in the playoffs."
#1 - He didn't become the default leadoff hitter...he was signed to be exactly that! The guy stole 40 some bases the year before they signed him.
#2 - The Cubs recognized this last year in the playoffs, hence the Brian Roberts talks. Apparently, according to a Chicago sports writer, they are still interested and as a side note, will be involved in the Sabathia talks. (I don't believe that they have the money)
#3 - As far as Fukudome, I don't think you make the decision right now. I think you let him go home to Japan for a couple of months and try and get his head striaght. Then you bring him to ST and let him try and work it out. If things aren't going well there, THAT is when you make the decision. There will always be room for a lefty on the roster who plays great defense and STILL, being as bad as he was in the second half, ended up with a better on base percentage than a TON of major leaguers. For instance, just looking at Right Fielders, Kosuke STILL had a better OBP than Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr., Corey Hart, Xavier Nady, Hunter Pence....and so on, all of whom play the same position that he does, and most if not all of whom play much worse defense.
Also, Ryan Theriot is making next to nothing and has the 2nd highest OBP among SS in the majors, only benind Hanley freakin Ramirez. Theriot is not your problem here boys. Would Furcal be an upgrade? Maybe...probably. But that is when he is healthy and probably for at LEAST 10 mil more a year. I don't know about you, but I'd rather spend that 10-13 mil somewhere else.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 06, 2008 at 04:41 PM
I totally agree with you, Aduncaroo, that Theriot is not a problem. But, if you can sign a switch hitting leadoff hitter such as Furcal, who will also provide superior defense at SS, move Theriot to 2nd base (a position he is more suited for) and DeRosa to RF/supersub, does that not make more sense than spending prospects on Roberts? Theriot has great OBP but is not a leadoff hitter, and I absolutely think that DeRosa is good enough to justify a starting role, but I'm not going to be surprised at all if they go in this kind of direction. It's what they tried to do last offseason. Perhaps they couple this with also adding a LH power bat for RF, (further reducing Theriot/DeRosa's playing time). Furcal would cost a few mill more than Roberts but you don't have to spend prospects for possibly only 1 year of Roberts. I suppose if a true leadoff hitter is what they crave, I'd rather see them go this route.
Posted by: BigBatsMcHellfire | October 06, 2008 at 06:12 PM
How about letting Dempster slide and getting Sabathia (of course, get Sabathia first--assuming he'd agree to be on a team that seems forever destined to choke)? It would be nice if the Cubs could get an ace who can be counted on to be consistent, wouldn't it?
I agree w/the above comments. Theriot is definitely not the Cubs' prob (hell he's the only guy on the damn team who's played all year and has a .300 avg). Sure it would be nice if he could also hit homers, but this is all gravy, isn't it? What's important is that Theriot gets on base, and having guys on base is one of the things that has made the 2008 Cubs so much better than the teams of old--and Fukudome HAS helped in this, and will in the future unless the management decides to blame him for the whole season and playoffs. Let the guy go home, rest and cogitate upon what he needs to do to be better. Let him then play in ST, and if he still looks bad, then send him down to AAA to work stuff out.
The prob w/the Cubs isn't guys like Theriot. The prob (well one of the probs) is that the Cubs are heavily dependent on the base on balls--and stringing together singles and doubles w/these BB's. Against most teams this formula seems to work. Against teams w/good pitching, however, this recipe breaks down, for good pitchers (except if they're on the Cubs) aren't inclined to either giving away walks or letting the other team hit one hit after another. What the Cubs need are batters who can get the job done w/out having to wait for the pitcher to make 4 mistakes. They need consistent clutch slugging (and from the left side would be nice). Unfortunately, Ramirez and Soriano will never CONSISTENTLY fill this role against good pitching (and their no trade clauses just makes the matter worse). Lee can do it, but it would be nice if over the off-season he could rediscover how to hit homers again, for he definitely still has the strength to do it. The Cubs have got to go out and get a consistent MVP caliber hitter (and stay away from the "streaky" guys, Hendry!).
As for DeRosa, they should keep him if they can, but it would be foolish to expect him to repeat the career-year that he had this season.
Posted by: BleedingBlue | October 06, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Fukudome needs to get his hitting stroke reworked over the offseason in winter ball and in the minors or extended spring training to get the ABs needed.
Also, Cub fans please stop with Fukudome in CF talk. Fukudome is a RFr who can spot play CF, but he is a below average CFr. He is a great RFr. I think he will end up doing better at the plate. How much better is yet to be seen. Regardless, they need a left handed bat with some thump.
Posted by: studio179 | October 06, 2008 at 11:36 PM
studio,
where do they play this left handed bat with thump if Fukudome doesn't move to CF? Are you saying to just flat out bench him? Thats probably tough to swallow on a 48 million dollar investment.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 07, 2008 at 12:41 PM
My guess is that if they get a left handed bat that plays RF, that will mean that Fukudome becomes the left side of the platoon with Reed Johnson in CF...I'm not saying I like that studio...but I don't see the Cubs doing it any other way.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 07, 2008 at 12:42 PM
I don't hate the Furcal ideal...but the thought of any more big, longterm contracts is really starting to scare me at this point. We already have Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Zambrano, Soriano, Lilly, and probably soon to be Dempster and Wood on the books for at least the next two years.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 07, 2008 at 12:46 PM
BleedingBlue: What I meant by hiding his offense in CF is that a team (traditionally) can live with defense and minimal offense in CF and would prefer to have a run-producer in the corner outfielder position. The Cubs already have Soriano, who is allegedly a run-producer, in LF and could use some offense out of RF. I don't think we've seen enough of Fukudome in CF to say he's average. He has excellent speed, gets good jumps, has a good arm, and quickly mastered one of the most difficult RF's in baseball. I don't think defense would be the problem. You almost have to expect improvement from him next year (unless his confidence is completely shattered) at the plate, maybe a .275/.375 line? Granted, he has very little power, but he can be a useful part of a lineup. A .375 OBP is useful in the #2 hole or even leading off. I think he'd be like a Mark Kotsay-type player for the Cubs, which is not bad. It's not worth $12M per year, but that ship has sailed.
Like others have said, the biggest problem is having Soriano in the lead-off spot. His OBP is subpar, he can't take pitches or walks, and strikes out far too often.
To others that have suggested signing Furcal: He is not the high-OBP guy you're looking for. He has speed, can take pitches, and rarely strikes out, but his OBP has never been great. He's much better than Soriano but wouldn't Theriot be also? He had a high OBP this year and rarely strikes out. Plus, he has speed and can take a walk. I partially agree that he may not be a SS and if that's the case, signing Furcal makes more sense. It's definitely going to be an interesting offseason.
Posted by: jcarney23 | October 08, 2008 at 02:57 PM
I am a huge Cub fan. I beleive we already have a left hander with pop in Hoffpauir and if given the chance would put up numbers much better than Lee's. Trade Lee for a premier center fielder to a team he would agree to play for or do a three team deal. The cubs also need to dump Blanco and Marquis to make room for courting another pitcher. Koyie Hill would be a suitable backup for Soto. As far as lead off why not give Reed Johnson the opportunity.
Posted by: dsullivan11 | October 17, 2008 at 06:47 PM